Ukraine Invasion: Part 50

[MagicFox]

Welcome, with love and thanks to all contributors and lurkers. Unbelievably, we’re on thread 50. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

I hope the Dems are focusing hard there as the Republicans really are

Quite right about Newsom. The other downside to him running nationally is that California is so overwhelmingly Democratic that the politicians there have never run in a closely contested election. It's more like one party rule.

Kamala is just a terrible candidate. Her run in the 2020 Democratic primaries was a disaster. She speaks in word salad. Her single brief as VP has been to manage immigration on the southern border, and that's been a disaster as well.

I think that Josh Shapiro is the strongest candidate of the lot. He's been a very effective governor and has broad bipartisan appeal.

https://news.sky.com/story/trump-shooting-assassination-attempt-biden-latest-live-sky-news-blog-13177655

Reports of him dropping out as early as this weekend. Christ I hope so. If democracy is going down I hope it’s going down fighting!

There's a similar report in the Telegraph, though I don't think it had a specific time frame like this weekend.

According to the WSJ, the pressure on Biden to step down has been unrelenting.

Top Democrats Turn Screws on Biden - Democratic leaders delay procedural vote to seal his nomination before the August convention; lawmakers fear steep down-ballot losses

It's going to be interesting to watch them pick a replacement ticket. Kamala is the easy alternative, but she leaves them with the same likely outcome.

It seems to be leaking from Dem sources which makes me think they’re laying the groundwork for an announcement. We see very similar in the UK, things ‘leak’ out to test the water.

Vance seems to be a choice based on confidence, he doesn’t sure up additional voters for Trump so a strong Dem ticket with black and brown voters and women could still do it.

They need a new figurehead that can match the energy that trump's team is currently managing. Vance sounds quite terrifying looking into his beliefs, especially about democracy. I get the impression he's biding his time with trump and has a much bigger agenda. But we'll see!

The Rest is Politics US podcast predicted on 4th July that JB would be gone by the end of the month. It wouldn’t surprise me at all.

Anthony and Katty were far less convinced in their latest episode. They think there is also now a sense of the candidacy being a poisoned chalice and that potential contenders may wish to wait u til 2028.

I have some catching up to do!

I think that Josh Shapiro is the strongest candidate of the lot. He's been a very effective governor and has broad bipartisan appeal.

Out of the three names, he looked to be an impressive candidate in terms of ability but wouldn’t his religious beliefs be an obstacle for middle America to vote for him?

I don't see it as that big of an obstacle. Pennsylvania is a very "middle America" state and it didn't stop him from getting elected governor, or having very high approval rates after serving in office.

I think (and yes, this is probably a bit controversial) that the people most opposed to electing a Jewish candidate are the far-left progressives, similar to the problem the UK had with Labour before the recent housecleaning.

Do you think what we’re now seeing is the beginning of the end of Biden’s campaign or a storm in a teacup?

My gut tells me that it's the beginning of the end, but he's notoriously stubborn and headstrong. However, his party is telling him that all Democrats will suffer if he continues, and their own polling shows that he'll lose as well. It's better to make a dignified exit now than own that kind of trainwreck.

But I'm not sitting in the White House with all of those lovely perquisites.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ 'A very big Russia problem' – NATO commander https://kyivindependent.com/cavoli-russia/ warns of post-Ukraine war threat to US and Europe.
The U.S. and Europe will have a "very, very big Russia problem" regardless of how the war in Ukraine ends, the supreme allied commander for NATO warned on July 18.
Speaking at the Aspen Security Forum in Aspen, Colorado, U.S. General Christopher Cavoli said even a Ukrainian victory would only be the beginning of Western attempts to contain Russian aggression

⚡️Biden departure from 2024 race increasingly likely https://kyivindependent.com/biden-departure-from-2024-race-increasingly-likely-top-democrats-say/ top Democrats say.

As Trump's victory becomes more likely, efforts underway to sway him to Ukraine's side https://kyivindependent.com/as-trumps-victory-becomes-more-likely-efforts-underway-to-sway-him-to-ukraines-side/

⚡️Working https://kyivindependent.com/working-with-trump-would-be-hard-work-zelensky-says/ with Trump would be 'hard work,' Zelensky says.

⚡️Zelensky, Trump to hold phone discussion https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-trump-to-hold-phone-discussion-cnn-reports/ CNN reports.

⚡️'Out of the question' – Scholz https://kyivindependent.com/out-of-the-question-scholz/ rejects downing Russian missiles over Ukraine.

⚡️Ukraine signs https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-signs-long-term-security-deals-with-czechia-slovenia/ long-term security deals with Czechia, Slovenia

⚡️ 'It's been 18 months' and F-16s https://kyivindependent.com/its-been-18-months-and-f-16s-have-not-arrived-zelensky-says/ have not yet arrived, Zelensky says. "It's been 18 months, and the planes have not reached us," Zelensky said in the interview while stressing that he is thankful for the allied support.

⚡️World must pressure Russia toward diplomatic settlement, Zelensky says. https://kyivindependent.com/world-must-pressure-russia-to-negotiating-table-zelensky-says/

⚡Global IT outage affects kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-bank-telecoms-affected-global-it kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-bank-telecoms-affected-global-it/ Ukrainian bank, telecoms.
A global outage in IT systems affected Sense Bank, one of Ukraine's largest banks, and Vodafone Ukraine on the morning of July 19.

⚡️BBC: NATO allies must prepare https://kyivindependent.com/bbc-nato-allies-must-prepare-for-decade-of-war-in-ukraine-stoltenberg-says/ for decade of war in Ukraine, Stoltenberg says.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told BBC on July 18 that NATO allies must prepare for the worst case scenario of a decade-long war in Ukraine.
"The main message is that the stronger the support for Ukraine and the longer we are willing to commit, the sooner this war can end," Stoltenberg told BBC. "The paradox is that now (Russian) President Putin believes that he can wait us out. So therefore, the war continues."

⚡️ Ukrainian parliament passes law https://kyivindependent.com/parliament-debt-postponing/ on postponing external debt payments.
The Ukrainian parliament adopted a bill on July 18 granting the government the right to suspend payments on external public debt until Oct. 1.

⚡️UK imposes https://kyivindependent.com/uk-imposes-more-sanctions-on-tankers-moving-russian-oil/ more sanctions on tankers moving Russian oil

With Krynky lost, what did the perilous operation accomplish? https://kyivindependent.com/with-krynky-lost-what-did-the-perilous-operation-accomplish/

Ukraine is increasing the supply of drones to the army and may have gotten ahead of Russia in terms of their number, Deputy Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces Vadym Sukharevskyi told Army TV. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-may-have-surpassed-russia-in-number-of-drones-commander-says/

Thousands of Ukrainian IDPs are struggling to adapt amid housing https://kyivindependent.com/what-happens-after-evacuation-ukraines-idps-struggle-to-adapt-amid-housing-employment-crises-2/ employment crises
There are currently nearly 5 million internally displaced people (IDPs) in Ukraine, 3.6 million of whom left their homes during Russia’s full-scale war, according to the Social Policy Ministry, and others during the initial Russian invasion that started in 2014.

⚡️Court freezes https://kyivindependent.com/court-freezes-assets-of-yanukovychs-confidant-worth-over-24-million/ assets of Yanukovych's 'confidant' worth over $24 million

⚡️Former U.S. paratrooper and musician Michael Travis Leake has been sentenced to 13 years in Russian prison on drug charges, a Moscow court's press service said on July 18. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-sentences-ex-us-soldier-to-13-years-on-drug-charges/

⚡️ Russia sentences US journalist Evan Gershkovich https://kyivindependent.com/russia-sentences-evan-gershkovich/ to 16 years in jail.

⚡️Russian attack on Kharkiv Oblast's Chuhuiv injures 9.
⚡️ Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 7, injure 25 https://kyivindependent.com/attacks-64/ over past day.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson

• JUL 19, 2024

■ Fewer engagements & casualties dip below 1k ■ Vehicle, artillery & drone losses above average, 3 missiles intercepted ■ Most 🇺🇦 strikes in close to 2 weeks, improved strike ratio

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Ukraine is rapidly advancing in the creation of military drones equipped with artificial intelligence (AI), as reported by Reuters. The AI drone development in Ukraine focuses on three main areas: visual systems for target identification and guidance, terrain mapping for navigation, and complex programs that facilitate the operation of interconnected drone swarms. One notable company in this sector is Swarmer, which is developing software to network drones, allowing instantaneous group decision-making with minimal human intervention. Their system, Styx, integrates reconnaissance and attack drones both in the air and on the ground, enabling autonomous action and predictive behavior within the swarm.
Despite concerns, AI is already being utilized in some long-range strikes by Ukrainian drones, targeting military facilities and oil refineries deep within Russian territory. These operations involve drones that fly to their targets while others focus on disabling or distracting air defenses en route, employing AI under human supervision to identify targets and threats and plan routes.

Ukraine and Great Britain signed a credit agreement for $2.5 billion to finance the purchase of weapons and military equipment of NATO standards.
The loan is granted for 15 years with the possibility of extension. Control will be carried out by a joint commission.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with King Charles III and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. This meeting is part of his participation in the summit of the European Political Community in Britain.

🛢Slovakia and Hungary said they stopped receiving oil from Russia's Lukoil after tightened sanctions against it.
Both countries said they continue to receive oil from other Russian suppliers, but not from Lukoil.

❗️Britain has imposed sanctions on 11 Russian vessels, including the Zaliv Amurskiy and SCF Amur, among others. These vessels, which fly under the flags of Gabon, Panama, and the Cook Islands, were targeted due to their involvement in transporting oil or oil products from Russia to third countries.

On Thursday, July 18, a World Central Kitchen (WCK) humanitarian aid vehicle, clearly marked, was struck by a Russian short-range explosive device fired by a drone as it was returning from a food delivery mission near Oleksandrivka, Ukraine. Fortunately, no injuries were reported; the driver was unharmed, and there were no passengers. It remains unclear whether the WCK vehicle was specifically targeted by Russia.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🤬The occupation authorities of Luhansk ordered the demolition of the monument to the victims of the Holodomor of 1932-33 and Stalinist repressions because of “insulting the patriotic feelings of Luhansk residents”

Zelensky asked British Prime Minister Starmer to help Ukraine gain the ability to use Western long-range weapons to strike deep into Russia

🇷🇸 Serbian President Vucic met with Zelensky on the sidelines of the European Political Community summit in Britain.

110 Separate Mechanized Brigade destroyed the Russian Su-25 in the Donetsk oblast

Russian troops massively shelled Kherson Oblast
◾️The village of Bilozerka was shelled with multiple rocket launchers, and more than 60 buildings were destroyed or damaged. Two women were killed and five other people were injured. Among them are two medical workers.
◾️A 59-year-old man was injured in the village of Antonivka.
◾️In Kherson, a Russian drone attacked an ambulance, injuring the driver and a paramedic. Their condition is assessed as moderate.

🤡Diana Șoșoacă, an odious far-right and anti-Ukrainian Member of the European Parliament for Romania, was expelled from the European Parliament plenary session for unbecoming conduct during a debate on the re-election of Ursula von der Leyen

Biden is reportedly butthurt over suggestions that he pass the torch. Let's hope that this is just a stage, to be followed at some point by grief and acceptance.

Biden left feeling angry and betrayed by top Democratic leaders wavering on his campaign - The president is furious at how the party has tried to force him out, two sources say, as Democrats in Congress increasingly believe the question is when, not if, he will end his campaign.

Oh for fuck sakes. I felt sorry for him but he’s being a selfish twat!

I'm with Jelly, I feel quite cross now

Sadly if Trump wins weapon support for Ukraine will end, Putin will ve given a slice of Ukraine in return for ending the war. Ukraine cannot fund it without the US and allies backing.

Again, Ukraine belongs to itself. It is not Trumps to give away. Life will get harder, and the rest of the Europe will need to step up until America comes to its senses.

Europe hasn't the means, the funds or the production to provide Ukraine with what it needs.

The problem with the Trump/Vance plan (should it happen) is why would Russia accept a small slice when they can take the lot?

I think (and yes, this is probably a bit controversial) that the people most opposed to electing a Jewish candidate are the far-left progressives, similar to the problem the UK had with Labour before the recent housecleaning.

In that case, my hope would be for him to replace Biden but all democrats would have to pull out all the stops to get behind him. Our only faint hope is for the US to pull a France here and collaborate across partisan positions to block Trump. Not sure how likely that would be?

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-18-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a Russian coast guard base in occupied Crimea on the night of July 17 to 18.
• European countries continue to display their commitment to Ukraine and unity in the face of Russian aggression.
• Rosgvardia made an unprecedented proposal on July 17 to grant Russian Central Bank leadership the right to carry automatic weapons and handguns.
• Kremlin officials continue to expand the geographic scope of Russia's proposed alternative "Eurasian security architecture."
• The US continues efforts to build out a partnership with Armenia, sparking critical reactions from Kremlin officials.
• Russian forces recently marginally advanced along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line and near Kharkiv City, Toretsk, Avdiivka, and Hulyaipole.
• Russian officials continue efforts to expand the Russian Armed Forces' training capacity and address force generation issues.