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Ukraine Invasion: Part 50

1000 replies

MagicFox · 21/06/2024 21:11

Welcome, with love and thanks to all contributors and lurkers. Unbelievably, we’re on thread 50. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

OP posts:
Thread gallery
278
1dayatatime · 17/07/2024 21:18

@thefireplace

"Perhaps, i hope so, the West have been far too slow in giving UA what they need.... but Ukraine are (reported) also running out of troops.

Personal view is this war will end with Ukraine giving up territory & i do not believe Trump will arm UA more than Biden, not at all."

If the level of military aid being given to Ukraine now was given at the start of the conflict then I think Ukraine would not have lost as much or even any territory. It seems like the aid is only ever increased when Ukraine suffers a loss of territory or military setbacks, which is reactive and never puts Ukraine in an advantageous position.

I agree with you on the Ukrainian troop level point, which is not helped by men avoiding the draft:

www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz994d6vqe5o.amp

As for the end of the war, then a majority of Ukrainians want a negotiated solution but equally a majority of Ukrainians are not willing to give up any territory to achieve peace.

The problem I see with this is that if the negotiated peace did involve giving up any territory then I think a large number of Ukrainians would see it as as stab in the back by the Trump administration, not dissimilar to how many Germans felt that they had been stabbed in the back after WW1.

So in the meantime on it grinds, more lives are lost and from Putin's perspective I think he is just waiting until Trump is elected.

DrBlackbird · 17/07/2024 21:44

MissConductUS · 17/07/2024 21:16

If I'm honest, it's not looking good. Let's hope that Biden steps down. That would give us a very good chance to avoid it. The Democrats have a very strong bench of governors and legislators that would have broad support without Biden's age issues. They just can't pick two far-left progressives.

But who @MissConductUS ? Is there a reasonably high profile democrat that we just haven’t heard much about in the UK? Someone the Democrats could get behind? I can’t see Harris as that person.

MissConductUS · 17/07/2024 23:17

DrBlackbird · 17/07/2024 21:44

But who @MissConductUS ? Is there a reasonably high profile democrat that we just haven’t heard much about in the UK? Someone the Democrats could get behind? I can’t see Harris as that person.

Gavin Newsom from California, Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan and Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania are most commonly mentioned.

Democrats are in a bit of a panic over this leaked poll, which is likely what led to the most recent calls for him to drop out.

Leaked polling memo ‘shook Democrats in their boots,’ says former Obama adviser

Igotjelly · 17/07/2024 23:28

And now Biden has Covid 😑 it really is never ending.

L1ttledrummergirl · 17/07/2024 23:40

Do you think Bidens covid might be the convenient excuse he needs to step back- long covid, recovery time etc?

WinterMorn · 17/07/2024 23:47

L1ttledrummergirl · 17/07/2024 23:40

Do you think Bidens covid might be the convenient excuse he needs to step back- long covid, recovery time etc?

Yes. This looks very much like the start of an exit strategy.

Igotjelly · 17/07/2024 23:51

Well if it isn’t an exit strategy (and I fear it’s not) it’s another nail in the coffin of his reelection campaign.

MissConductUS · 18/07/2024 00:07

Igotjelly · 17/07/2024 23:51

Well if it isn’t an exit strategy (and I fear it’s not) it’s another nail in the coffin of his reelection campaign.

I agree completely.

At his age, covid is a very serious medical issue. And even if he rides it out, he's off the campaign trail for two weeks or so, and it makes him look weaker still.

heldinadream · 18/07/2024 10:18

Zelenskyy just interviewed briefly on Sky news on his way in to the meeting at Blenheim.
He looks exhausted.

blueshoes · 18/07/2024 10:23

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-17-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • Russian state news outlets editorialized comments by Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev and claimed that he said that the Ukrainian state will no longer exist by 2034, likely to support the Kremlin's efforts to prepare the Russian public for a long war in Ukraine while promising that Russia will complete its objective to destroy Ukrainian statehood within a decade.
  • Russian officials continue to seize on diplomatic meetings with European states to create the impression that Russia is normalizing its relations with the West and claim that there is limited Western support for Russia.
  • Russia and India continue to strengthen their bilateral relationship amid reports of ongoing Russian weapons exports to India.
  • Russia and Ukraine exchanged 95 prisoners of war (POWs) each in a one-to-one POW exchange on July 17.
  • Kremlin officials continue attempts to curry favor with Russian ultranationalists by appealing to anti-migrant animus despite such appeals generating tensions with the Russian government’s efforts to execute the Kremlin's wider migration policy.
  • Ukrainian forces regained positions south of Toretsk, and Russian forces recently advanced north of Kharkiv City and near Kupyansk, Svatove, Avdiivka, and Vuhledar.
  • Russia's crypto-mobilization campaign continues to generate increasing financial costs for the Russian government.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 50
Igotjelly · 18/07/2024 10:33

heldinadream · 18/07/2024 10:18

Zelenskyy just interviewed briefly on Sky news on his way in to the meeting at Blenheim.
He looks exhausted.

No wonder, I think I’d have collapsed in a heap by now! I thought Olena Zalenska when she was interviewed on Ukraine the latest last week sounded like she is the same.

1dayatatime · 18/07/2024 11:26

@Igotjelly

"Well fuck.... According to a draft of next year's budget, Germany plan to halve its military aid to Ukraine. It seems that they hope Ukraine will meet its military needs from the £38bn in loans from proceeds of frozen Russian assets."

Aside from the moral question from throwing Ukraine under a bus, from a purely self interest perspective this is a pretty dumb strategic decision by Berlin.

DrBlackbird · 18/07/2024 11:39

MissConductUS · 17/07/2024 23:17

Gavin Newsom from California, Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan and Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania are most commonly mentioned.

Democrats are in a bit of a panic over this leaked poll, which is likely what led to the most recent calls for him to drop out.

Leaked polling memo ‘shook Democrats in their boots,’ says former Obama adviser

Thanks for that information @MissConductUS

Unfortunately, each for different reasons, I can’t see any of those politicians as having a chance at beating Trump. Maybe Gavin Newsom but there’s a lot there for the Trump team to smear.

It’s not just age that’s a strike against Biden because if David Attenborough ran for an office here, I imagine he’d get quite a lot of votes. More that Biden’s voice is so weak along with the verbal stumbles. He just presents as being old now.

But Biden just might be as much of an opponent as those three mentioned. And that’s the problem. No stand out younger democrats given the opportunity to develop a platform. For that I do blame Biden and fear for Ukraine’s chances with a Trump administration.

MagicFox · 18/07/2024 11:46

Hopefully we're underestimating just how many voters what a choice that isn't Biden or Trump. If the Democrats are smart they can offer that option

OP posts:
MagicFox · 18/07/2024 11:46

Want a choice, sorry

OP posts:
Igotjelly · 18/07/2024 11:49

MagicFox · 18/07/2024 11:46

Hopefully we're underestimating just how many voters what a choice that isn't Biden or Trump. If the Democrats are smart they can offer that option

Thing is it's quite possible that Biden/the Dems will win the popular vote but if they aren't winning those key swing states - and the polls now show Trump with a clear lead in those - they will still lose the election.

MagicFox · 18/07/2024 11:52

Yea the whole thing is terrifying honestly.

OP posts:
DrBlackbird · 18/07/2024 11:53

Russian state news outlets editorialized comments by Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev and claimed that he said that the Ukrainian state will no longer exist by 2034, likely to support the Kremlin's efforts to prepare the Russian public for a long war in Ukraine while promising that Russia will complete its objective to destroy Ukrainian statehood within a decade.

So if a Trump administration withdraws funding along with EU cutting funding and puts pressure on Ukraine to accept geographical losses this allows the Kremlin to regroup and rearm to assault Kyiv in two or three years time (only no warning given by American intelligence) to take the entire country. I can imagine Putin being the megalomaniac dictator wanting to destroy a country for opposing him and forcing his losses.

With authoritarianism and the far right on the rise in India, China, multiple South American countries and the far right in Europe gaining ground along with a Trump win (and conservatives rumoured to win next Canadian federal election), along with the rise in AI and surveillance (Thiel of Palantir fame apparently put millions into Vance’s campaign) and frankly I am afraid for my DCs future and the future of democracy.

Dystopian future fiction such as Orwell’s seem increasingly prescient.

Igotjelly · 18/07/2024 11:54

DrBlackbird · 18/07/2024 11:39

Thanks for that information @MissConductUS

Unfortunately, each for different reasons, I can’t see any of those politicians as having a chance at beating Trump. Maybe Gavin Newsom but there’s a lot there for the Trump team to smear.

It’s not just age that’s a strike against Biden because if David Attenborough ran for an office here, I imagine he’d get quite a lot of votes. More that Biden’s voice is so weak along with the verbal stumbles. He just presents as being old now.

But Biden just might be as much of an opponent as those three mentioned. And that’s the problem. No stand out younger democrats given the opportunity to develop a platform. For that I do blame Biden and fear for Ukraine’s chances with a Trump administration.

My understanding is that Gavin Newsom would do well with the progressives, but that he's too sparkly and Californian for many of the e.g. rust belt states.

There is a view that Kamala is only on the ticket for the colour of her skin, as tokenistic representation. If Biden steps down and they don't pick her that risks a real backlash with Black and brown voters as it speaks to that view.

Part of her low polling figures are due to the fact she's seen as somewhat missing in action. She does well when she speaks to key election issues such as abortion. If they get her out there I think she'd do well, particularly with a white male VP pick. Some are suggesting maybe a Harris and Shapiro ticket.

DrBlackbird · 18/07/2024 12:03

I agree that Harris has not really been giving any visibility but assumed that was because she was seen as a bit too honest/blunt. She’s never polled highly. Shapiro sounds like he’s done amazing work as governor but as a conservative Jew, he’s not going to appeal to any Muslim or perhaps even young voters.

My understanding is that Gavin Newsom would do well with the progressives, but that he's too sparkly and Californian for many of the e.g. rust belt states.

Newsom looks presidential in that John Kennedy mold but his views on a range of topics would definitely not go down well with middle America.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 18/07/2024 15:05

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️EU Commission approves https://kyivindependent.com/eu-commission-approves-nearly-4-6-billion-in-financial-support-to-ukraine/ nearly $4.6 billion in financial support to Ukraine.
The EU Council on Feb. 28 approved 50 billion euros ($54 billion) in loans and grants for Kyiv, giving the final go-ahead for the four-year Ukraine Facility tool.

⚡️ Ursula von der Leyen re-elected https://kyivindependent.com/ursula-von-der-leyen-re-elected-as-european-commission-president/ as European Commission president.

⚡️Fighting in Krynky ongoing https://kyivindependent.com/fighting-in-krynky-ongoing/ but Ukrainian positions 'completely destroyed.'

⚡️Ukraine confirms withdrawal https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-withdraws-from-urozhaine/ from Urozhaine in Donetsk Oblast.

⚡️Zelensky arrives https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-arrives-in-uk/ in UK, meets Zaluzhnyi.

⚡️Zelensky warns European leaders that Putin may use blackmail https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-warns-european-leaders-that-putin-may-use-blackmail-to-undermine-unity/ to undermine unity.
Russia may use blackmail to divide Europe and induce individual countries to break away, President Volodymyr Zelensky warned at the European Political Community summit in the U.K. on July 18.

⚡️Ukraine reveals https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-reveals-final-number-of-men-who-updated-mobilization-data/ final number of men who updated mobilization data.
From May 18 to July 16, 4,690,496 military-aged men updated their registration data by the July 17 deadline, the country's Defense Ministry has announced.

⚡️Ukraine sends https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-sends-palestine-1-000-tons-of-flour-in-first-tranche-of-food-aid/ Palestine 1,000 tons of flour in first tranche of food aid.

⚡️Global peace summit communique reaches https://kyivindependent.com/87-countries-peace-summit/ 87 signatories.

⚡️A court in the German city of Stuttgart on July 17 convicted a couple, both German-Russian nationals, of supplying drone parts to Russia. https://kyivindependent.com/german-court-convicts-german-russian-couple-of-supplying-drone-parts-to-russia/

⚡️Most Russian Olympic athletes violate https://kyivindependent.com/russian-olympic-athletes-violate-neutrality-rules/ neutrality rules, investigation suggests.
Over two-thirds of Russian athletes set to participate in the upcoming Olympics have violated neutrality rules by displaying public support for the invasion of Ukraine, human rights group Global Rights Compliance reported on July 18. [surprise!]

⚡️Lavrov claims Russia has ‘irrefutable evidence https://kyivindependent.com/lavrov-claims-russia-has-irrefutable-evidence-that-us-journalist-gershkovich-is-a-spy/ that US journalist Gershkovich is a spy.

⚡️ Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 1, injure 35 https://kyivindependent.com/attacks-63/ over past day.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson

  • JUL 18, 2024
■ Engagements up, casualties stay 1.1k ■ Drone, vehicle & artillery losses above average ■ Vehicle losses for last 7 days at record high ■ Janovsky: 30-day ratio at 3.3x ■ Fewer 🇷🇺 strikes lead to an improved strike ratio
Ukraine Invasion: Part 50
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 18/07/2024 15:10

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The European Parliament passed the resolution in support of Ukraine with a majority of votes (495 out of 679), condemning Orbán's inconsistent foreign policy

France is preparing a new aid package for Ukraine, which will include Caesar howitzers, according to a document seen by France Info. Ukraine is set to receive 128 VAB transport vehicles, 18 Caesar artillery howitzers, and 24 light tanks.
The package also includes anti-tank missiles, trucks, and radars, as part of the additional French equipment planned for 2024.

Russia is ready for negotiations on Ukraine and security issues in Europe, — Lavrov [the wind shifted again]

According to The Economist, stocks of Soviet tanks and artillery in Russia may be depleted by 2025, as the country faces challenges in producing these weapons independently.
Russia has shifted towards a military economy, increasing missile production and maintaining a recruiting rate of about 25,000 recruits monthly to sustain its occupying force of 470,000 personnel.
The production and repair of tanks are hindered by shortages of skilled workers, components like fuel heaters and high-voltage systems, and sanctions preventing access to critical equipment from Europe. Chinese alternatives often do not meet quality standards.
Historical centers of arms production in Ukraine, Georgia, and East Germany, including Kharkiv's role in tank turret manufacturing, are no longer accessible. The military industry workforce has decreased sharply, from 10 million to 2 million employees, without adequate compensation or automation.
Artillery production faces similar challenges, lacking essential machinery previously imported from Austria and now unavailable. Despite assistance from North Korea in ammunition supply, frontline artillery suffers from rapid wear, with some barrels needing replacement within months.
Russia has managed to replace about 4,800 artillery barrels since the beginning of the year but requires another 7,000 replacements due to high wear rates. Experts predict Russia will face critical shortages of armored vehicles and artillery by the second half of 2025 if current depletion rates continue.

Russian sources released footage of the FAB-3000 bombs being dropped from Su-34 aircraft using UPMK carriers.
A challenge for Russia is that these aerial bombs are extremely heavy and lack significant aerodynamic features, as the FAB-3000 was not originally designed for precision targeting. Although fairings and UPMK carriers partly address this issue, the Su-34 needs to ascend to high altitudes to effectively strike targets up to 50 kilometers away.

Defense-industrial complex of Ukraine began integration into the defense structures of the USA and NATO

The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine is conducting tests of unmanned systems at military training grounds, integrating them into combat formations. These include reconnaissance drones, remotely controlled machine guns, sapper robots, and ground logistics robots.

🇩🇪 The German defense company Donaustahl will supply the Ukrainian special unit KRAKEN with a test batch of FPV drones “MAUS.”
These FPV drones are capable of reconnaissance and strike missions, targeting both infantry and armored vehicles.
Characteristics:
• The “MAUS” can carry a payload of up to 2.7 kg.
• It has a range of 5 to 7 km.
• It can carry different types of ammunition.
• It is equipped with an infrared/thermal vision camera.
A notable feature of the drone is its frame, made of special wood, making it 75% cheaper than conventional FPV drones in terms of frame cost.

Vovchansk, Kharkiv region. The Russians completely destroyed it. https://t.me/United24media/23659

In Italy, a Ukrainian was issued a driver’s license stating “Mariupol, Russia” as the place of birth.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 50
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 18/07/2024 15:15

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Last night, Ukrainian air defense shot down all 16 drones used by the Russians to attack Ukraine and two Kh-59/69 missiles
They were shot down over Dnipropetrovs'k, Poltava, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv and Kharkiv oblasts.

788 soldiers have gone missing in the village of Krynky on the left bank of the Kherson oblast, according to Slidstvo.Info, citing police data
This number was recorded between October 2023 and the end of June 2024.

Last night, SBU drones struck the Russian Coast Guard base on Lake Donuzlav in occupied Crimea, Suspilne sources said
As a result of the combined attack, several Russian facilities were damaged and disabled, including the headquarters with a control center, an ammunition and equipment depot, a power substation, technical facilities, and firing positions.

Russians hire marginalized people in Ukraine to set fire to Ukrainian military vehicles
Russian curators recruit perpetrators through messengers or the darknet, promising to pay for the arson.
Such crimes have become widespread. Arson attacks took place in Kharkiv, Rivne, and Vinnytsia, but most of all in Odesa. In two weeks, 7 cars were set on fire in the city.
Russians are passing off the arson videos as the actions of a "pro-Russian underground." Several perpetrators have already been detained in different Ukrainian cities.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 50
MissConductUS · 18/07/2024 15:41

Igotjelly · 18/07/2024 11:49

Thing is it's quite possible that Biden/the Dems will win the popular vote but if they aren't winning those key swing states - and the polls now show Trump with a clear lead in those - they will still lose the election.

Correct. This is an oddity of the electoral college system. Because Democrats are so heavily represented in large states like California and New York, many of their votes are effectively wasted. The rule of thumb is that Democrats must lead the national polls by about five percent to win the electoral college vote.

It's really going to be down to those seven or so swing states.

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