Ukraine Invasion: Part 50

[MagicFox]

Welcome, with love and thanks to all contributors and lurkers. Unbelievably, we’re on thread 50. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

Trump did order the halting of $400m of military aid to Ukraine in 2019/20 and he has said he wants a negotiated end to the war, so he won't halt all aid, as Trump knows he has to negotiate from strength but may well give up territory to Russia.

TBH this is inevitable as it is unpalatable but neither side seems able to win and the war has to end or Ukraine will be destroyed, as it is, Ukraine is running out of troops, such a waste.

Ukraine is not Trumps (or Americas) to negotiate away.

Or we could just give Ukraine what they need to actually win rather than just enough not to lose 🤷‍♀️

Should Trump be elected and maybe inclined to negotiate a peace between Russia and Ukraine that involved Ukraine ceding territory to Russia I don’t believe he’d do that without extracting a political advantage or some sort of pay back from Putin, especially bearing in mind Putin’s new best friends.

@PerkingFaintly, Don't take everything in the Project 2025 document as accurate or feasible. Acting appointees' actions are still subject to judicial review and challenge, and there are limits on how long they can serve.

Understanding the Federal Vacancies Reform Act

Thanks, @MissConductUS , that's good to hear.

The last paragraph of your link is particularly interesting:

The opinion on acting officials at DHS released by GAO in August involved a situation where another statute overruled the FVRA’s default succession rule. The 2017 National Defense Authorization Act allowed the secretary of homeland security to designate other officers at the department to serve as acting secretary. In 2019, Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen used that authority to lay out two different succession plans, one in case of resignation and the other in case of unavailability during a disaster. GAO found that when Secretary Nielsen resigned later that year, DHS followed the disaster plan instead of the resignation plan, and consequently Kevin McAleenan incorrectly took office. McAleenan introduced a new succession plan to allow Chad Wolf to become acting secretary, and then Wolf altered the succession plan to allow Cuccinelli to become the director of USCIS. Because McAleenan originally took office based on an illegal succession, GAO decided, the subsequent succession plan changes were voided, and both Wolf and Cuccinelli were serving illegally.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Japan to reportedly cover $3.3 billion https://kyivindependent.com/japan-g7-loan/ of G7 loan to Ukraine.

⚡️Germany to halve https://kyivindependent.com/germany-to-halve-ukraine-military-aid-reuters-reports/ Ukraine military aid, Reuters reports, according to a draft 2025 budget document reported by Reuters on July 17.

⚡️Czechia to open bullet factory https://kyivindependent.com/czechia-to-open-bullet-factory-start-production-of-assault-rifles-in-ukraine/ start production of assault rifles in Ukraine.

⚡️The Bureau of Economic Security (BEB) is effectively blocking the work of a body armor manufacturer due to ongoing investigations of tax evasion, Forbes Ukraine reported. https://kyivindependent.com/beb-body-armor-investigation/ This complicates the supply of bulletproof vests to the military as the Ukrainian Armor (Ukrainska Bronia) company is one of the few certified producers in the country.

⚡️Ukraine hits https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-hits-russian-s-300-system-in-occupied-part-of-donetsk-oblast-syrskyi-says/ Russian S-300 system in Donetsk Oblast, Syrskyi says

⚡️Ukraine sets new record https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-sets-new-record-for-gas-production-in-6-months/ for gas production in 6 months.

⚡️Baltic states to complete decoupling https://kyivindependent.com/baltics-inform-moscow-minsk-of-their-separation-from-russian-controlled-power-system/ from Russian-controlled power grid by early 2025.

⚡️Lithuania to provide Ukraine with energy equipment worth nearly $55 million. https://kyivindependent.com/lithuania-will-provide-ukraine-with-energy-equipment-worth-nearly-55-million-ministry-says/

Ukraine's hardened sanctions against Lukoil, Russia's second-largest oil producer, has stopped the company's deliveries to Hungary, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto claimed on July 16. https://kyivindependent.com/lukoil-hungary-sanctions/

⚡️Shells previously designated as expired brought back https://kyivindependent.com/army-receives-shells-supposed-to-be-disposed-by-ukraine/ into service, Defense Ministry says.
Ukraine's Defense Ministry returned to Ukrainian soldiers "a significant amount" of ammunition that was slated to be disposed of before the start of Russia's war against Ukraine in 2014.

⚡️Russian companies increasingly looking https://kyivindependent.com/russian-companies-increasingly-looking-to-africa-to-fill-vacancies-media-reports/ to Africa to fill vacancies, media reports.

⚡️Russian media: Medvedchuk sends https://kyivindependent.com/property-owned-by-brothers-of-medvedchuk-ex-mp-kozak-transferred-to-ukrainian-state/ letter to Trump seeking to blame Ukraine for assassination attempt

Restoring the Dnipro Hydroelectric Station in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine's largest hydroelectric power plant, will take at least three years, according to Ihor Syrota, head of the Ukrainian state-owned energy company Ukrhydroenergo. https://kyivindependent.com/repair-of-ukraines-largest-hydroelectric-power-plant-to-take-at-least-3-years-due-to-russian-attacks/

⚡️Russia’s State Statistics Service has excluded the total number of deaths from external causes in its annual report, independent Russian media outlet Meduza reported on July 16, citing demographic expert Aleksei Raksha. https://kyivindependent.com/russias-statistics-service-excludes-data-from-annual-report-to-conceal-war-deaths/
Analytics and journalists have been using that data to extrapolate the number of Russian soldiers killed in the invasion of Ukraine, something the Kremlin has refused to disclose.

Authorities in Russia's Belgorod Oblast instituted restrictions on entering 14 towns and villages by the Ukrainian border due to an "extremely difficult operational situation," Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said on July 16. https://kyivindependent.com/citing-security-concerns-russian-authorities-restrict-entry-to-border-areas-of-belgorod-oblast/

⚡️Poroshenko pays https://kyivindependent.com/poroshenko-sets-bail-for-ex-intelligence-officer-accused/ bail for ex-intelligence officer Сhervinskyi Roman Chervinskyi had previously served in Ukraine's defense intelligence agency (HUR). He was indicted by the State Security Service (SBU) in April 2023 for abuse of power. According to SBU officials, Chervinskyi, along with others in HUR, tried to hijack a Russian Air Force aircraft whose pilot was allegedly planning to defect to Ukraine.

⚡️Ukrainian conscripts https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-conscripts-who-fail-to-update-military-data-on-time-may-be-fined-put-on-wanted-list/ who fail to update military data on time may be fined, put on wanted list.

⚡️ Ukraine lists 42,000 citizens https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-lists-42-000-missing-persons/ as missing persons. The register collects data on people who have disappeared due to war, occupation, or natural and man-made disasters.

Hard work underway https://kyivindependent.com/hard-work-underway-to-reopen-kyiv-childrens-hospital-hit-by-russian-missile/ to reopen Kyiv children’s hospital hit by Russian missile

⚡️Zelensky proposes https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-proposes-to/ stripping individuals supporting Russia of state titles.

⚡️Medvedev says Ukraine's NATO membership https://kyivindependent.com/medvedev-says-ukraines-nato-membership-would-lead-to-war/ would lead to war.

⚡️Russian court sentences https://kyivindependent.com/russian-court-sentences-ukrainian-russian-national-to-26-years-in-prison-for-arson-against-enlistment-offices/ Ukrainian-Russian national to 26 years in prison for arson against enlistment offices.

⚡️ Ukrainian parliament votes to cancel daylight saving time https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-parliament-votes-to-cancel-daylight-saving-time/ This means that Ukrainians will set their clocks back one hour for the last time on Oct. 27, 2024, and will not revert back to summer time next spring.

⚡️ 95 Ukrainian prisoners released from Russian captivity. https://kyivindependent.com/95-ukrainian-prisoners-released-from-russian-captivity/

⚡️ Ukrainian intelligence https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-intelligence-hacks-russian-websites-replaces-homepages-with-pigs-head-pictures/ 'hacks Russian websites, replaces homepages with pig head pictures.'

‪Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪

• JUL 17, 2024

■ Engagements stay below 7-day average, 1.1k casualties
■ Tank & special equipment losses well above average
■ Janovsky: 🇷🇺/🇺🇦 ratio for last 30 days at 3.6x ■ Fewer strikes on both sides, ratio stays unfavorable

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Great Britain and EU countries have agreed to strengthen their fight against the shadow fleet of Russian oil tankers, according to Bloomberg sources.
The final plan is expected to be approved on Thursday, July 18, at a meeting of the European Political Community.

Greece plans to sell 32 F-16 fighter jets to the USA for upgrading and transfer to Ukraine, according to Al Jazeera.
It has not been officially announced yet. Greece intends to decommission 32 older F-16s and believes they should be sent to Ukraine.
Athens plans to upgrade 82 F-16 fighters to the Block-70 version and purchase 24 fourth-generation Rafale fighters from France.

The Hungarian Foreign Minister met with Lavrov in the USA to discuss Ukraine.
According to the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Szijjártó and Lavrov discussed the “progress of the implementation of the agreements” reached by Putin and Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán on July 5 in Moscow. At the meeting, the Hungarian Foreign Minister also discussed Ukraine with Lavrov.
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs added that “despite the extremely difficult international situation,” the interaction between Hungary and Russia continues to “progressively develop.”

⚡️Due to the heat in Russia, an accident at the Rostov NPP, accidents at the thermal power plant in Buryatia. Also an accident at the thermal power plant in temporarily occupied Sevastopol. [no further details from UNITED24 Media]

The Ministry of Defense of Romania denied propaganda claims that F-16 fighter jets were spotted in the airspace of the Odesa region last week, taking off from Romanian airfields. The misinformation was linked to the NATO summit in Washington, where important decisions were made to support Ukraine's defense efforts.

🇩🇪 The Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development of Germany will provide Ukraine with 10 million euros for the restoration of the Ohmatdyt Children’s Hospital, which was destroyed by a Russian missile attack.

The Deputy Prime Minister of Moldova, visiting Kyiv, reported that children from Moldova were staying at the Kyiv hospital "Ohmatdyt" during the recent shelling by the Russian Federation.

Russia has lost at least a hundred of its most modern T90-M tanks. This is the conclusion reached by analysts at the Oryx portal.
Putin called these tanks "the best in the world."

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Boris Johnson met with Donald Trump to discuss Ukraine.
“Great to meet President Trump who is on top form after the shameful attempt on his life. We discussed Ukraine and I have no doubt that he will be strong and decisive in supporting that country and defending democracy,” Johnson said.

❗️Ukrainian media reported the withdrawal of the Ukrainian military from Krynky in Kherson Oblast
According to a Suspilne source, this happened a few weeks ago. The General Staff has not officially confirmed this. Its reports yesterday said that Ukrainian troops had repelled two Russian attacks in the Krynky area.
Liga. net, citing sources in the General Staff, also reported the withdrawal from Urozhayne in the Donetsk oblast.

🇺🇸🇺🇦 The NATO Secretary General has appointed https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_228106.htm a special representative to Ukraine, a British man named Patrick Turner.
He will head the Alliance's office in Kyiv and will begin work in September. Turner will help work on reforms and changes necessary for accession to the bloc and will report to Brussels and the new command in Wiesbaden (NSATU), which is being created to coordinate the supply of military equipment to Ukraine and the training of Ukrainian troops.
The special representative will speed up the process of assisting, strengthen coordination between the parties, and provide assessments and advice to the bloc on the situation in Ukraine.
▪️Turner has served as NATO's Assistant Secretary-General for Operations, Planning, and Defense Policy and has held several senior civil service positions in the UK.

Ukraine expects to receive six F-16 aircraft from Western allies this summer, with up to 20 by year's end
However, three main challenges persist reconfiguring the planes for specific missions, the need for suitable runways and shelters, and complex logistics for maintenance.

New international volunteers are being trained, the International Legion announced today

🇧🇾This morning, an Iranian-Russian Shahed exploded in Belarus, which was supposed to attack Ukraine, according to the monitoring channel Belarusian Hayun.
According to analysts, the drone went down 120 kilometers from the border with Ukraine near the city of Bobruisk.

⚡️ Ukraine exchanged prisoners with Russia - 95 Ukrainians got back home
❗️This is the 54th exchange of prisoners since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. A total of 3,405 people have been returned from enemy captivity, the Ukrainian Coordination Center said.

In Myrnohrad, a cat was rescued from the rubble of a five-story building and returned to its owner. According to the rescuers, just minutes before the shelling, the cat began meowing persistently, urging the woman to enter a specific room. This act saved her life, as the room did not collapse.
◾️On July 14, Russians hit a five-story building in Myrnohrad, causing the entire entranceway to collapse. Three people were killed, and seven others were injured.

10 years ago, the Russians shot down flight MH17, which was flying from the Netherlands to Malaysia. 298 people died. This is another reminder of the atrocities the Russian occupiers are capable of

Here's a bit of background on Trump's VP pick re Europe and Ukraine from the WSJ.

JD Vance Is a Big Ukraine Critic. Europe Is Wary of His Addition to the GOP Ticket.

I thought this bit was at least slightly encouraging:

Jan Techau, director for Germany at consulting firm Eurasia Group and a former German defense official, said Vance has gained something of a reputation in Europe for being someone who could be engaged with, even when there are strong disagreements.

Among the European officials he has developed a relationship with is Britain’s new Foreign Secretary David Lammy from the center-left Labour Party.

“Vance is young, he’s ambitious, he wants to prove himself,” Techau said. “The fact that he still has a career ahead of himself makes him an interesting counterpart. Perhaps he won’t want to burn too many bridges.”

He’s also proven to not exactly be wed to his convictions so might be mailable in the right company?

He’s also proven to not exactly be wed to his convictions so might be mailable in the right company?

I agree, but a kinder way of looking at it would be that access to more information and other points of view would lead him to different conclusions. It's one thing to voice an opinion from the sidelines, and quite another to take responsibility for it.

Perhaps, i hope so, the West have been far too slow in giving UA what they need.... but Ukraine are (reported) also running out of troops.

Personal view is this war will end with Ukraine giving up territory & i do not believe Trump will arm UA more than Biden, not at all.

This is true but I struggle to be kind to the likes of Trump and JD Vance to be honest. They’re attracted to whatever might win them votes and attention. I don’t believe for a second they change their mind because they realise the error of their ways. Maybe I’m too pessimistic…

Incidentally I had someone comment on my car bumper sticker supporting Ukraine today. Essentially saying a time will come soon when I’ll need to hide it

Biden's determination to stay in the race may be starting to crack as more senior democrats call on him to pass the torch.

Biden says he might quit presidential race if ‘medical condition’ emerged

If he does so soon, the Democrats will have time to put together a new ticket, and if they pick candidates from the moderate wing of the party, they will likely defeat Trump.

What an arsehole! Meaning what? I don't get how people can take sly pleasure in the situation in any way - makes me very cross! And so short sighted

I hope so, this is surely the sensible route. They're leaving it right to the wire. They have to take this risk I think

If they did defeat him I swear to god I think I would cry with relief.

Who knows, nowt weird as folk 😂 It’s definitely becoming more socially acceptable to vocalise an anti-Ukraine stance. For so long it was, in this part of the UK at least, pretty much a no-go.

I hope so, this is surely the sensible route. They're leaving it right to the wire. They have to take this risk I think

I hope so too. When he ran for this term, he said he was only going to serve one term as a transitional president. He then convinced himself that the was the only Democrat who could beat Trump when many others would have a much better chance to do so.

What’s your gut instinct given you’re living it day to day in the US, do you think we’re destined for the hell of a Trump second term?

No way! I have one of these too and the comments I have had have always been positive, (albeit far less frequent now).

I had a lovely comment in Luxembourg when I was on holiday as I always wear a Scotland and Ukraine flag pin on my jacket. A Ukrainian woman living as a refugee nearly broke down saying thank you for not forgetting her country. Her husband was fighting and she said she was so worried ordinary people would forget. It was so incredibly moving.

If I'm honest, it's not looking good. Let's hope that Biden steps down. That would give us a very good chance to avoid it. The Democrats have a very strong bench of governors and legislators that would have broad support without Biden's age issues. They just can't pick two far-left progressives.