Ukraine Invasion: Part 50

[MagicFox]

Welcome, with love and thanks to all contributors and lurkers. Unbelievably, we’re on thread 50. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

I still doggedly believe there are far more good than bad.

Other countries have counted on America being the world’s policeman for so long now that there’s an unhealthy dependence on the US for global leadership. With Trump and Vance, will Europe step up leadership efforts including for increased defence funding for Ukraine?

Perhaps Republicans will all change their views on supporting Ukraine but it is concerning that the potential (likely?) VP believed fake news on Ukrainians buying yachts though.

@DrBlackbird

"Other countries have counted on America being the world’s policeman for so long now that there’s an unhealthy dependence on the US for global leadership. With Trump and Vance, will Europe step up leadership efforts including for increased defence funding for Ukraine? "

Actually this is a really good point. It is very much in wider Europe's interest that Ukraine does not fall to Russia. The question then is if the US backs away, is Europe going to step up to increased defence spending for Ukraine because if they don't then it won't just be Ukraine paying the price of letting Putin get his way

Well Biden's interview yesterday will do little to quell the critics I suspect, mumbling and trailing off constantly. Not to mention the fact that he, in trying to I think apologise for his bullseye comments reiterated them!

Equally though he seems consistently clear that he has no plans to drop out.

In other news JD Vance talking about the UK as if its some sort of hostile state! https://x.com/60sJapanfan/status/1812967311500058991

I don't understand why the democrats aren't doing something drastic to claw this back. I know it's a risk but surely not as much of a risk as keeping going the way things are now.

Its genuinely as if they've just given up. Thing is its all very well for a party like the Tories in the UK to say OK we'll go away, reconstitute and try again. There might never be the chance to try again in the US as it has been until now!

Exactly, the stakes are so high.

Just when I thought nothing could possibly get any worse, along comes J. D. Vance and Donald Trump the Messiah.
My lifelong pessimism and gloom finally looks rational and mainstream.
I'm so glad these threads exist because they remind me that all is not and never is lost.

It’s just never ending isn’t it?

Following with interest, and very much enjoying the informed voices on this thread.
💙💛

Hi @Ginandpangolins - great name!

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Ukraine is expecting to sign security agreements with 9 more countries https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-is-expecting-to-sign-security-agreements-with-9-more-countries-zelensky-says/ Zelensky says.
The Ukrainian government is seeking to sign security agreements with 32 countries in total. Ukraine has already signed security agreements with 23 countries, President Volodymyr Zelensky said.
The security agreements cover humanitarian, military, reconstruction, and financial assistance for Ukraine.

⚡️Trump names https://kyivindependent.com/trump-names-ohio-senator-vance-as-his-running-mate/ senator in favor of Ukrainian territorial concessions as his running mate.
"Any peace settlement is going to require some significant territorial concessions from Ukraine, and you're gonna have a peace deal because that's the only way out of the conflict," Senator J.D. Vance said in February.

⚡️ Lavrov arrives https://kyivindependent.com/lavrov-arrives-in-new-york-to-chair-un-security-council-meeting/ in New York to chair UN Security Council meetings.

⚡️European Commission snubs https://kyivindependent.com/european-commission-snubs-hungarys-presidency-over-rogue-diplomacy/ Hungary's presidency over Orban's rogue diplomacy.
The European Commission will not attend at the highest level many events hosted by Hungary's presidency of the Council of the EU, a spokesperson said on July 15.
"In light of recent developments marking the start of the Hungarian Presidency, the President (Ursula von der Leyen) has decided that the European Commission will be represented at senior civil servant level only during informal meetings of the Council," said von der Leyen's spokesperson Eric Mamer.

⚡️Congress urges White House to disclose whether Russia is sharing https://kyivindependent.com/congress-urges-white-house-to-disclose-whether-russia-is-sharing-insight-on-us-weapons-with-china/ insight on US weapons with China.

Kremlin blames Democrats, Ukraine for Trump assassination attempt* *https://kyivindependent.com/trump-shooting-sends-kremlin-hypocrisy-into-overdrive/

⚡️India is aiming to increase exports https://kyivindependent.com/india-is-aiming-to-increase-exports-to-russia-after-modi-and-putin-met-reuters-says/ to Russia after Modi-Putin meeting, Reuters says.

India summoned a Ukrainian envoy over President Volodymyr Zelensky's criticism of a meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin last week, the Economic Times newspaper reported on July 16. https://kyivindependent.com/india-summons-ukrainian-ambassadors-over-zelenskys-comments/

⚡️ Orban urged EU to restore diplomatic relations with Russia in letter to Michel, Bild reports. https://kyivindependent.com/orban-russia-bild/

⚡️Trump will demand https://kyivindependent.com/trump-will-demand-ukraine-hold-peace-talks-with-russia-if-elected-orban-claims/ Ukraine hold peace talks with Russia if elected, Orban claims.

Last Russian patrol ship left occupied Crimea https://kyivindependent.com/last-russian-patrol-ship-left-occupied-crimea-ukraines-navy-says/ Ukraine's navy says.

⚡️Mobilization is going 'according to plan https://kyivindependent.com/mobilization-is-going-according-to-plan-there-are-not-enough-training-facilities-zelensky-says/ ' but there are not enough training facilities, Zelensky says.

⚡️Spain says https://kyivindependent.com/spain/ 10 more Leopard 2 tanks en route to Ukraine. With this batch, the total number of Leopard 2A4 tanks handed over from Spain to Ukraine has reached 20.

⚡️Ukraine produces largest number https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-produces-largest-number-of-self-propelled-howitzers-in-europe-per-month-zelensky-says/ of self-propelled howitzers in Europe per month, Zelensky says. He did not specify how many units Ukraine produces per month. But he described this figure as "powerful."

⚡️Russia proposes broader criteria for designating https://kyivindependent.com/russia-proposes-broader-criteria-for-designating-individuals-to-terrorist-extremist-list/ individuals to terrorist, extremist list.

⚡️Russian 250-kilogram guided bombs injure https://kyivindependent.com/russian-250-kilogram-guided-bombs-injure-at-least-5-in-donetsk-oblast/ at least 5 in Donetsk Oblast

⚡️Georgian president appeals https://kyivindependent.com/president-of-georgia-appeals-to-constitutional-court-on-the-law-on-foreign-agents/ to Constitutional Court on the law on 'foreign agents.'

From Estonian university professor to convicted Russian spy: the curious case of Viacheslav Morozov https://kyivindependent.com/the-curious-case-of-viacheslav-morozov-russian-professor-made-a-career-in-estonia-by-criticizing-his-countrys-colonial-mindset-then-he-was-arrested-for-spying/
Viacheslav Morozov was a widely respected scholar of political science at Estonia's premier university. Then he was convicted of spying for Russia.

⚡️ Ukraine's top prosecutors investigated over suspected $170,000 bribe. https://kyivindependent.com/prosecutors-investigated/

⚡️Russian attacks against Ukraine injure 16 over past day.

‪Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪

• JUL 16, 2024

■ Engagements below 7-day avg, 1.1k casualties ■ Tank, APV & drone losses well above avg ■ Janovsky: 30-day ratio of visually confirmed equipment losses rises to 3.2x ■ Unfavorable strike ratio due to massive 🇷🇺 strikes

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

US Concerns Over Escalation Prevent Authorizing ATACMS Strikes on Russian Territory
The United States remains cautious about authorizing long-range ATACMS missile strikes on Russian territory due to fears that the conflict could spread beyond Ukraine, according to Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder.

🇱🇹 Lithuanian energy company Ignitis Gamyba is transferring critical equipment from Vilnius Thermal Power Plant 3 to Ukraine.
The humanitarian aid package includes more than 300 units of equipment. The specific types of equipment and their destinations are not disclosed for security reasons.

The Czech and Ukrainian governments will hold a joint meeting today, according to the Czech government.
The meeting will cover topics such as defense, migration, energy cooperation, support of Czech exports, and the involvement of Czech companies in the restoration of Ukraine.
This meeting will continue discussions from the previous meeting held in Kyiv at the end of October 2022.

Near Vladimir Putin's residence in Valdai, about four kilometers away, a new air defense system called "Uzhin" has been installed. The Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft missile and gun system appeared on Ryabinovy Island this spring, according to Radio Svoboda.

Roberta Metsola was re-elected as the head of the European Parliament, according to Euronews.
Her candidacy was supported by 562 MEPs, while the Spanish candidate, Irene Montero, received 61 votes. Metsola’s term has been extended for another 2.5 years.
Metsola called for the protection of the rule of law, further support for Ukraine, stable peace in the Middle East, reduced bureaucracy, and stronger protection of social rights.
She also supported the demand to grant the parliament the right of legislative initiative, a power currently held by the European Commission.

Ukrainian Bullet UAV Test Video Released — Military Journal https://t.me/United24media/23614
A video showcasing a test of the Ukrainian Bullet UAV, designed to intercept enemy drones, has surfaced online. This UAV is intended to counter enemy reconnaissance or strike drones, as well as helicopters and other aircraft used by Russian forces.
▫️Purpose: The Bullet UAV is specifically designed to combat enemy drones, including reconnaissance and strike drones, helicopters, and other aircraft.
▫️Performance: While the exact tactical and technical characteristics are not disclosed, the telemetry data from the video shows the drone achieving controlled flight at a minimum speed of 130 km/h. The use of a jet engine suggests that the actual maximum speed could be significantly higher.
▫️Cost: The entire complex, which includes five UAVs and a ground station, is priced at 5.8 million UAH, or approximately 140 thousand dollars.

Ukrainian Businesses which donated to rebuild Ohmatdyt Children's Hospital.

Oops

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

The Danish Prime Minister, Mette Frederiksen, stated that European countries have been experiencing hybrid attacks with a "Russian trace" daily and believes that Western countries’ reaction is "too polite."

The air defense system near Putin's palace in Valdai has appeared on Google Earth
In March 2024, a tower with the Pantsir-S1 air defense system was installed near Putin's residence in Valdai, Radio Liberty reports. The air defense system is visible from the air - right now you can look at it via Google Earth https://maps.app.goo.gl/tUeHVQiyrh9iKmML8

🔥 A low-voltage equipment factory is on fire in the Kursk region of Russia. Local authorities blame it on an alleged Ukrainian drone.

Former Ukrainian soldier Olexiy Anulya endured brutal torture in Russian captivity, undergoing 17 surgeries after his release
He shared his ordeal with Russian POWs in Ukraine, highlighting the humane conditions they enjoy compared to the severe abuse faced by Ukrainians held by Russia.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-15-2024

Key Takeaways:

• A recent Ukrainian poll indicates that Ukrainians widely reject Russia's demands for total Ukrainian capitulation, emphasizing that the Kremlin's conditions for the end of the war are entirely unreasonable and widely unpopular within Ukraine.
• Ukraine continues to demonstrate its willingness to negotiate with Russia on Ukraine’s own terms, and Ukraine’s demands for a peace settlement are in accordance with international law — in direct contrast to Russia’s unwillingness to engage in negotiations that end in anything short of full Ukrainian surrender.
• European Union (EU) officials continue to take steps to demonstrate the EU’s non-alignment with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s political stances concerning the war in Ukraine.
• The Russian government proposed to significantly increase the number of conditions on which the Russian government can designate a person as a terrorist or extremist, likely as part of efforts to censor criticisms about Russia’s war in Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces conducted drone strikes against Russian energy infrastructure overnight on July 14 to 15 and reportedly also hit Russian military assets in occupied Crimea.
• A new Russian migrant assimilation program highlights the apparent struggle the Russian government is facing with reconciling aspects of its policy towards Central Asian migrants as the Russian state desires to present itself as welcoming and multicultural while also emphasizing the primacy of Russian language and historical legacy.
• Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov is posturing himself and the North Caucasus as key to Russia's outreach to the Arab world.
• Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Toretsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Avdiivka.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized ongoing Russian efforts to integrate the metallurgy industry in occupied Ukraine into Russia's defense industrial base (DIB).

https://x.com/KyivPost/status/1813246378078007478

very interesting if true. Reports of a new Prime Minister and full Cabinet next week.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/35921

https://x.com/BorisJohnson/status/1813284028298240086

I dislike Boris and Trump but they’re cut from the same cloth and if anyone can get through to Trump it’s someone so like him. Say what you will for Boris too but he was strong on Ukraine.

I'm not a fan of Trump and, as a non-Brit, don't feel qualified to have a strong opinion on Boris. However, I do think that Boris has some influence on Trump. IIRC, Boris was born in New York. That counts for something with Trump, as does Boris' prior US citizenship.

I think Trump's political calculus regarding Ukraine will change if he wins, which is looking increasingly likely at the moment. There's the rising support for Ukraine from the evangelicals, a key voting block, and the fact that if he breaks it as President, he owns it—just as Biden owns the botched withdrawal from Afghanistan.

It's easy to pontificate from the sidelines. If he wins, this will be Trump's final term in office. I can't imagine he wants to go down in history as the President who handed Ukraine to Russia.

what do you make of rumours he’ll end the 2 term limit? Do you think the constitution and the institutions are strong enough to resist that sort of attempt on democracy?

Trump can't change the two-term limit. It's in the constitution. And yes, I think the constitutional system is strong enough to resist an executive branch attempt to subvert it.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-16-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian drone strikes deep within Russia continue to pressure Russia's air defense umbrella and force the Russian military command to prioritize allocating limited air defense assets to cover what it deems to be high-value targets.
• Ukrainian forces continue targeting Russian air defense systems in occupied Ukraine and in Russia’s border areas to set conditions to field F-16 fighter jets following their anticipated Summer-Fall 2024 arrival to Ukraine.
• The Russian 235th Garrison Military Court released former 58th Combined Arms Army (CAA) Major General Ivan Popov from pre-detention on July 15 center and placed him under house arrest until October 11.
• Armenian police detained another Russian citizen in Armenia, likely at the request of Russian authorities, amid deteriorating Armenian-Russian political and security relations.
• An investigation by Russian opposition outlet The Bell found that approximately 650,000 people left Russia following the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and have not returned.
• Russian forces recently advanced northwest of Avdiivka.
• The Russian government is continuing to improve Russia's bureaucratic mobilization and conscription systems.

I don't think changing the two-term limit is necessarily how they will try to do it.

I won't expatiate just now, because I need to sit down and put together a coherent post on this with correct names, not just off the top of my head. But IIRC the technique being suggested in the Project 2025 prospectus, and which we have certainly seen used successfully in recent years, is avoidance.

The Republicans left a seat on the Supreme Court empty, preventing it being filled by using their position as (IIRC) leader of the House to refuse to conduct the necessary Congressional hearing. (Mitch McConnell said words and waved his hands about as distraction.)

After he lost the election in 2020, Trump immediately sacked the ?Attorney General This was another position where approval of ?Congress was required to fill it – so he didn't fill it. He appointed an acting ?Attorney General, who was thus his creature, with all the powers but without Congressional oversight.

Project 2025 plans (IIRC) to run this trick again, appointing lots of "acting" officers to avoid oversight. It's also why they plan in some areas to remove tenure and sack career civil servants, especially making the position of head of department a political appointment: so they can put in Trumpist placemen.

And indeed we've seen the same trick again in voter suppression.

Basically the strategy is: if they aren't going to be on our side, just avoid them existing at all.

They are not going to take the bull by the horns. They'll gnaw at it from behind, chase it and run it dead.

Many apologies for all the "?" in above post, and leaving folk to go check names of positions and organisations.

It's just if I don't post the outline now, I might not remember it. Honestly, goldfish have longer memories than mine...

[Edited for typo. Not v clever today...]