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Ukraine Invasion: Part 50

1000 replies

MagicFox · 21/06/2024 21:11

Welcome, with love and thanks to all contributors and lurkers. Unbelievably, we’re on thread 50. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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278
notimagain · 14/07/2024 12:41

@MissConductUS

Assuming he had no military service and no specialized marksmanship training at age 20, that was a difficult shot with a bog-standard AR-type rifle.

Agree, I vaguely recall the joys of briefly using a variant of the FN FAL with open/iron sights when going through basic boot camp…I’m not sure if “unable to hit a cows arse with a banjo” translates across pond but I think that applied to most of our course when firing on the range much beyond 100 yards.

I'm just surprised that it took the Secret Service agents as long as it did to locate and neutralize him

I don’t get that either, I would have thought overwatch and prompt response to an unknown on adjacent roof tops would have very much been a priority.

For info: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FN_FAL

MissConductUS · 14/07/2024 12:52

I’m not sure if “unable to hit a cows arse with a banjo” translates across pond

It does. 😂

I've never fired an FN FAL, but it looks like a good weapon. I earned my marksman qualification on the M4, but my father taught me how to fire a rifle as a teenager. This annoyed many of the blokes in my unit who had trouble qualifying.

MissConductUS · 14/07/2024 13:51

I don’t get that either, I would have thought overwatch and prompt response to an unknown on adjacent roof tops would have very much been a priority.

Quite right. The roof he fired from was the only structure in the area with a line of sight down to the stage Trump was on. I think the SS is going to face some very hard questions about why they hadn't secured it. I wouldn't be surprised if some conspiracy theories start circulating that the Biden administration was "in on it" somehow.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 14/07/2024 14:38

I think this will make the already febrile atmosphere worse, and I do think there will be an effect. I think if Trump gets in then then world will shift, from the decisions he makes and the decisions those pulling his strings will make. It's not going to be positive for the world, or for Ukraine.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 14/07/2024 14:44

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Trump shot https://kyivindependent.com/trump-shot-at-during-pennsylvania-rally/ at during Pennsylvania rally.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump appeared to fall and was quickly surrounded by armed guards, staying down for about a minute.
He then stood up, raised his fist, and was escorted to a vehicle, which drove him away.
⚡️Update: Trump taken https://kyivindependent.com/trump-shot-at-during-pennsylvania-rally/ to medical facility after the shooting and is ‘doing fine,’ spokesperson said.
The shooter was confirmed dead, killed by Secret Service agents.

⚡️Biden condemns Trump https://kyivindependent.com/biden-condemns-trump-rally-shooting/ rally shooting.

⚡️Russia claims https://kyivindependent.com/russia-claims-to-drop-3-ton-aerial-bombs-on-ukraine/ launch of 3-ton aerial glide bombs from Su-34 jets against Ukraine.

⚡️Kremlin spokesman threatens https://kyivindependent.com/peskov-threatens-europe-over-decision-to-host-us-missiles/ Europe over decision to host US missiles.
The Kremlin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in a July 13 interview that European capitals would be the “victims” if they hosted U.S. long-range missiles.

⚡️Zelensky briefly visits Ireland https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-briefly-visits-ireland-irish-pm-vows-to-visit-kyiv-in-coming-weeks/ Irish PM vows trip to Kyiv 'in coming weeks.'

⚡️Lukashenko claims https://kyivindependent.com/belarus-withdraws-troops-from-ukrainian-border/ Belarus is withdrawing troops from Ukrainian border.
Minsk reinforced security at the border in late June after a series of alleged "security incidents." However, Lukashenko said that the situation had stabilized and that Ukraine had withdrawn its troops from the border with Belarus.

⚡️Bloomberg: Orban spoke https://kyivindependent.com/orban-spoke-against-ukraines-nato-membership-during-meeting-with-zelensky-in-washington/ against Ukraine's NATO membership during meeting with Zelensky in Washington.

⚡️Dutch company fined 1.8 million euros for participation in Crimean Bridge https://kyivindependent.com/dutch-company-fined-1-8-million-euros-for-participation-in-crimean-bridge-construction/ construction.
In the Netherlands, construction equipment supplier Dieseko Group B.V. was fined nearly 1.8 million euros ($1.9 million) for its involvement in the illegal construction of the Crimean bridge, violating international trade sanctions.

⚡️Russian attacks kill 13, injure 54 in Ukraine over past day.
⚡️Three killed and five injured in Russian attacks on Kherson Oblast.
⚡️Chief emergency worker among two killed in Kharkiv Oblast.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬

  • JUL 14, 2024
■ Most casualties since May 31; big APV, vehicle & drone losses ■ Strikes above avg; improved ratio but in double-digits ■ KIU: +33 🇷🇺 officers; last 4-batches 4.9 per day ■ Janovsky: 31 🇷🇺 11 🇺🇦 net change; 30-day ratio of 3.1x

Kremlin spokesman threatens Europe over decision to host US missiles

"Our country is in the crosshairs of American missiles located in Europe. We've been through all this before," he said in an interview with Russian TV propagandist Pavel Zarubin. "We have enough potential to deter these missiles. But the capitals of th...

https://kyivindependent.com/peskov-threatens-europe-over-decision-to-host-us-missiles

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 14/07/2024 14:49

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

One person killed in an assassination attempt on Trump.

Russia and Iran Seek to Deepen Relations and Cooperation, — ISW
Newly elected Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian published an article in the Tehran Times praising the People’s Republic of China and Russia for supporting Iran in “difficult times.”
Pezeshkian described Russia as a “valuable strategic ally and neighbor” and emphasized his government’s commitment to expanding and prioritizing bilateral and multilateral cooperation with Russia.
He also expressed Iran’s desire for peace between Russia and Ukraine, stating that Iran is ready to support initiatives aimed at achieving peace.

In Switzerland, a Russian diplomat is suspected of espionage and the illegal purchase of weapons, — Deutsche Welle reports.
Swiss prosecutors are investigating three individuals who procured weapons and other dangerous materials in violation of local military property laws. One of them is a Russian with diplomatic accreditation in Bern, for whom a “national arrest warrant” has already been issued.
According to preliminary information, the Russian diplomat managed to leave Switzerland. He had previously been under the surveillance of Swiss special services due to suspicions of espionage for Russia.

Germany Creates Plan to Transfer Troops in Case of Russian Attack, — Der Spiegel
The Bundeswehr is developing a scheme to transfer troops to eastern Europe in the event of a possible military conflict between NATO and Russia. Should the Russian Federation attack the eastern flank through Germany, it will be necessary to transfer up to 800,000 soldiers of the alliance, as well as more than 200,000 units of various equipment, within three to six months, according to the publication.
The key road for the military convoy from west to east will be the A2 highway, which runs from the city of Oberhausen to the ring road of Berlin. The Bundeswehr, state authorities, and the federal government are working on the safety of this route, as well as the capacity of civilian infrastructure to receive and maintain such a large number of vehicles and troops in the event of possible problems with the road.
In June, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, speaking in the Bundestag, warned that Germany should be ready for defense in the event of a Russian attack by 2029.
"We have no right to neglect our defense. Putin's military economy is working to prepare for the next conflict," he said.

Russians hit the village of Buda near Kharkiv: 2 people were killed and 22 were injured, including a child.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 14/07/2024 14:53

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Since the beginning of this week alone, the occupiers have used more than 700 guided aerial bombs, more than 170 attack UAVs of various types and almost 80 missiles against Ukraine
This was announced by Volodymyr Zelensky.

A drone attack in Russia's Rostov oblast caused an oil depot to catch fire
A drone attacked an oil depot near Tsimlyansk after 4:00 am. There are no dead or injured, local governor said.

President Zelensky calls Trump's murder attempt "a heinous crime" and says that it shows the seriousness of global challenges to democracy

ISW: Ukrainian military conducts counterattacks in some areas of the frontline
Ukrainian troops are trying to seize the tactical initiative by conducting limited counterattacks in certain areas of the front. And they will be able to counterattack, depending on the arrival of Western aid.
According to Western and American officials, Ukrainian troops will continue to defend themselves for the next six months and will not be able to launch a large-scale counteroffensive until 2025.
However, ISW military analysts have noted that Ukrainian forces are already trying to seize the tactical initiative.

Yehor Zavadetskyi, a 7-year-old boy who was in the Okhmatdyt children's hospital during the Russian missile attack on July 8, has died

Ukraine Invasion: Part 50
blueshoes · 14/07/2024 15:49

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-13-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) reportedly conducted successful drone strikes against an oil depot near Tsimlyansk, Rostov Oblast on the morning of July 13.
  • Russia and Iran continue to signal their commitment to deepening bilateral relations and multilateral cooperation.
  • A detained Russian businessman and a Russian military official who were reportedly connected to detained former Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov recently died on the same day.
  • Armenian border guards, cooperating with Russian authorities, reportedly detained a Russian citizen in Yerevan, likely as part of a continued Kremlin effort to assert political power over Armenia and challenge Armenia's sovereignty amid deteriorating Russian-Armenian relations.
  • Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Kupyansk and Svatove, and Russian forces recently advanced near Kreminna, Toretsk and Avdiivka and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
  • The Russian military continues efforts to improve training capacity.
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 15/07/2024 13:51

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️China, Russia begin joint military drills https://kyivindependent.com/china-russia-begin-military-drills/
The news comes days after NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on July 11 said that China is a "decisive enabler" of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

⚡️Kaja Kallas announced her resignation as the Estonian prime minister on July 15 to take up the job of the EU's top diplomat later this year. kyivindependent.com/estonian-pm-resigns/

⚡️Russia uses injured soldiers https://kyivindependent.com/russia-uses-injured-soldiers-pows-in-human-wave-attacks-telegraph-reports/ POWs in human wave attacks, Telegraph reports.

⚡️Battlefield situation 'tense' https://kyivindependent.com/battlefield-situation-tense-near-toretsk-pokrovsk-general-staff-reports/ near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, General Staff reports.

⚡️Stoltenberg signals opposition https://kyivindependent.com/stoltenberg-poland-missiles/ to Poland downing missiles over Ukraine.

The energy situation in Ukraine should improve after July 20 as the government works to decentralize energy production, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on July 14.

Orban presented Budapest's proposal on how to achieve peace between Russia and Ukraine in a letter sent to European leaders, a Hungarian government official said in an interview published on July 15. kyivindependent.com/orban-pitches-peace-proposal-to-eu/

⚡️EU plans to boycott https://kyivindependent.com/eu-plans-to-boycott-hungarys-foreign-affairs-summit-politico-reports/ Hungary's foreign affairs summit, Politico reports.
"If there's a formal foreign affairs council, organized by the high representative (Borrell) the same day, the ministers won't be able to go to Budapest," one diplomat said.

⚡️44% of Ukrainians believe it's time to start official peace talkshttps://kyivindependent.com/44-of-ukrainians-believe-its-time-to-start-official-peace-talks-with-russia-survey-finds/ with Russia according to a survey published by the ZN.ua media outlet on July 15.

At the same time, a majority of respondents were also opposed to the current ceasefire conditions laid out by Putin, which would entail the complete Ukrainian withdrawal from the four regions that are partially occupied by Russia.

⚡️ Heatwave pushes electricity consumption to maximum, Ukrenergo warns. https://kyivindependent.com/heat-wave-pushes-electricity-consumption-to-maximum/

⚡️German opposition leader wants Berlin to send combat planes https://kyivindependent.com/german-opposition-leader-wants-berlin-to-send-combat-planes-to-kyiv/ to Kyiv.
"I believe that we should help Ukraine to at least restore sovereignty over its own airspace," Christian Democratic Union (CDU) politician Friedrich Merz said on July 14.

⚡️ Syrskyi orders inspection of 59th Motorized Brigade https://kyivindependent.com/syrskyi-59th-motorized-brigade/ after recent losses, Ukraine's General Staff said on July 15.
The announcement came only a day after Azovstal defender and medic Kateryna Polishchuk, known under the nickname Ptashka ("bird"), called on Syrskyi and President Volodymyr Zelensky to investigate the unit over the alleged misconduct of its commander, Bohdan Shevchuk.

⚡️Ukrainian gymnast wins https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-gymnast-wins-world-challenge-cup-in-romania/ World Challenge Cup in Romania.

⚡️Authorities declare https://kyivindependent.com/authorities-declare-state-of-emergency-in-southern-russian-city-of-novorossiisk-as-wildfires-rage/ state of emergency in Russia's Novorossiysk as wildfires rage.

⚡️ Russia claims Ukrainian drone attack against occupied Crimea. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-claims-ukrainian-drone-attack-against-occupied-crimea/

⚡️ Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 1, injure 24 over past day.

62 artillery gone again.

‪Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬

  • JUL 15, 2024
■ Fewer engagements but casualties stay high ■ Tank, vehicle, artillery & drone losses above 7-day average ■ Fewer strikes on both sides; slightly improved ratio but still in double-digits
Ukraine Invasion: Part 50
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 15/07/2024 14:01

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

🇺🇦🇸🇪 Ukraine and Sweden Discuss Provision of Saab JAS-39 Gripen Fighters
Ukraine and Sweden are currently in negotiations about the potential transfer of Saab JAS-39 Gripen fighters to Kyiv, according to Ihor Zhovkva, the Deputy Head of the Presidential Office.

Russia Can Use Soviet 130 mm Artillery Again Thanks to Iran and DPRK Missiles, — Astra
According to OSINT researchers, Russia can now once again use its Soviet-era 130 mm artillery in the war, thanks to missiles from Iran and the DPRK. Satellite photos of Russian bases and social media videos show that the M-46 cannons, developed in the 1950s, were in conservation. These 130-mm projectiles are no longer produced in Russia but are available from its allies.
Unconfirmed reports from one OSINT project suggest that the Russian army had approximately 600 M-46 guns in storage, which can now be returned to the battlefield.

Biden Calls Trump After Assassination Attempt
Following the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, President Joe Biden reached out to him. According to sources cited by CNN, their conversation was "short and respectful," marking their first direct communication in several years.

Temperatures in Ukraine are expected to exceed 42-44°C over the next seven days. In addition to these extreme conditions, Ukrainians are also coping with power outages as a result of ongoing Russian attacks on energy infrastructure.

NATO Secretary General Emphasizes the Need for Trained Pilots and Comprehensive Defense Systems for Ukraine
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg highlighted the critical need for not only aircraft but also for pilots who have the necessary training and qualifications to operate them.
"We are pushing for this to happen as quickly as possible. Because it will give Ukraine opportunities for defense," he stated.

Italy Plans to Restore Nuclear Power — Financial Times
The Italian government, led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, is planning to revive the country's nuclear power industry to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.
Italy's last nuclear power plant was closed over 30 years ago. A previous attempt to revive nuclear power by former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi was halted by a 2011 referendum where 90% of Italians opposed the plans.

The NATO summit has decided to bolster the Alliance's presence in Ukraine, including the appointment of a special representative of the Secretary General in Kyiv, according to EuroPravda.
Allies are currently discussing who will fill this role. Several EuroPravda sources indicate that European NATO members prefer a non-American appointee to balance U.S. influence.
The NATO presence in Kyiv will see significant changes in both scale and authority. The new NATO structure in Kyiv has been tasked with preparing Ukraine for membership, focusing on reforms in the security and defense sectors.

❗️Ukraine plans to finalize a plan with all 10 points of the peace formula for the second Peace Summit.
"At the end of July and the beginning of August, there will be the first meeting at the ministerial level and with security advisers to discuss the conclusions of our peace summit. The first meeting will most likely be in Qatar and will focus on energy security. A comprehensive plan for energy security will be prepared," said President Zelenskyy.
In August, there will be a meeting in Türkiye regarding free navigation and food security. In September, there will be a meeting in Canada on the exchange of prisoners and the return of children. A plan will be ready for these points as well. If these steps are successful, a complete plan for all 10 points of the peace formula will be finalized.

🇪🇸 The Spanish national football team won the EURO 2024 European football championship, beating the English national team with a score of 2:1.

MissConductUS · 15/07/2024 14:09

Here's some good news. Evangelical Christians, a very powerful group in the U.S., are changing the discussion within the Republican party in favor of more military aid to Ukraine. You might recall that Speaker of House, Mike Johnson, dropped his opposition to the $61B aid package after discussions with Ukrainian Baptist church leaders.

OPINION: How Evangelicals Are Changing the Republican Party’s Posture on Ukraine Aid - Despite MAGA’s antipathy to the Ukrainian cause, Evangelicals realize that true Christian ideals coincide with beleaguered Ukrainians rather than Putin apologists.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 15/07/2024 14:11

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇺🇦 The population of Ukraine will decline to 15.3 million people by 2100, according to the UN
At the same time, the organization predicts that by 2084, the world's population will reach its maximum in this century and will amount to approximately 10.3 billion people.
▫️According to the United Nations, as of January 1, 2024, Ukraine's population was 37 million 441 thousand people. It is projected to grow to 38.5 million in 2030, and then begin to decline gradually. [this is interesting as a lot left Ukraine; some figures Ive seen are at about 30million, with talk of a population decline. So there are a lot of varying figures around]

On this day 2 years ago, Russia attacked Vinnytsia and killed 22 people, including 4-year-old Liza.

A rally was held in Paris before the Olympics in honor of Ukrainian athletes who died as a result of the war with Russia

Ukraine Invasion: Part 50
Ukraine Invasion: Part 50
blueshoes · 15/07/2024 14:40

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-14-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • Russian officials and milbloggers reiterated complaints about poor security around critical infrastructure in rear areas of Russia in response to a July 13 Ukrainian drone strike against an oil depot near Tsimlyansk, Rostov Oblast.
  • The Russian military command may have committed under-equipped units initially intended to act as an operational reserve to combat operations, possibly due to constraints on the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) or efforts to reinforce ongoing Russian grinding assaults in Ukraine.
  • Ukraine signed a series of security agreements and received several aid packages amid and following the July 9-11 NATO summit.
  • Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Vovchansk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Avdiivka.
  • Russian State Duma Defense Committee Chairman Andrei Kartapolov reiterated on July 14 that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is not planning to demobilize servicemembers that Russia mobilized in Fall 2022 before the end of the war.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 50
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 15/07/2024 16:52

Interesting, @MissConductUS

The persecution of Christians that aren't Russian Orthodox has been regularly reported, sometimes quite high profile.

So according to the UK Int Update, gas prices for most russians will have risen by 42% by 2025. That's going to hurt some people.

Mb76 · 15/07/2024 20:51

MissConductUS · 15/07/2024 14:09

Here's some good news. Evangelical Christians, a very powerful group in the U.S., are changing the discussion within the Republican party in favor of more military aid to Ukraine. You might recall that Speaker of House, Mike Johnson, dropped his opposition to the $61B aid package after discussions with Ukrainian Baptist church leaders.

OPINION: How Evangelicals Are Changing the Republican Party’s Posture on Ukraine Aid - Despite MAGA’s antipathy to the Ukrainian cause, Evangelicals realize that true Christian ideals coincide with beleaguered Ukrainians rather than Putin apologists.

Interesting… I don’t know if I mentioned this before. Back in the mid to late 90,s when I was a student in Donetsk, I worked as an interpreter for some of these evangelical Christians, we remained friends although I lost my faith a long time since. However I know that most of them are Trump supporters. This has always baffled me. The article goes on to explain some of this so thank you for sharing @MissConductUS

Igotjelly · 15/07/2024 20:56

What do we make of JD Vance as Trump’s running mate. Isn’t he notoriously anti-Ukraine aid?

MissConductUS · 15/07/2024 20:57

Igotjelly · 15/07/2024 20:56

What do we make of JD Vance as Trump’s running mate. Isn’t he notoriously anti-Ukraine aid?

He is notoriously for anything Trump wants him to be for. Even more so now as his VP pick.

MagicFox · 15/07/2024 21:03

It's the worst possible choice

OP posts:
1dayatatime · 15/07/2024 21:05

Igotjelly · 15/07/2024 20:56

What do we make of JD Vance as Trump’s running mate. Isn’t he notoriously anti-Ukraine aid?

He is probably the most anti Ukrainian aid of all Republican politicians (and that is really saying something). Plus he is very isolationist on foreign policy.

1dayatatime · 15/07/2024 21:06

@MissConductUS

Actually he is more anti Ukrainian aid than even Trump is!

MagicFox · 15/07/2024 21:06

Not just anti-Ukrainian aid but anti- US involvement in Europe at all.

OP posts:
1dayatatime · 15/07/2024 21:09

MagicFox · 15/07/2024 21:06

Not just anti-Ukrainian aid but anti- US involvement in Europe at all.

Yep - so if I was Taiwan I would also be quite worried right now.

MissConductUS · 15/07/2024 21:10

MagicFox · 15/07/2024 21:06

Not just anti-Ukrainian aid but anti- US involvement in Europe at all.

He has no firmly held principles. He believes whatever is politically expedient for him to believe.

Igotjelly · 15/07/2024 21:16

I feel so sad for America. I have so many amazing American friends and so worry for their future (foreign policy aside).

The election feels like a slow motion car crash, we can all see it coming but no one seems able to stop it.

MagicFox · 15/07/2024 21:28

I feel so depressed about the future. It's frightening to imagine where we might be in 10 years. I need to think about all the good humans that exist or I'll go mad!

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