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Ukraine Invasion: Part 50

1000 replies

MagicFox · 21/06/2024 21:11

Welcome, with love and thanks to all contributors and lurkers. Unbelievably, we’re on thread 50. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

OP posts:
Thread gallery
278
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 13/07/2024 14:44

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Ukraine's GDP grew by more than 4% https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-gdp-grew-by-more-than-4-in-6-months/ in 6 months

Russia’s advance toward key eastern highway https://kyivindependent.com/russias-advance-toward-key-eastern-highway-threatens-ukraines-grip-of-donetsk-oblast/ threatens Ukraine’s grip of Donetsk Oblast
Ukraine’s higher ground advantage in Chasiv Yar could collapse if regions south and highway to the west fall into Russian hands, writes Asami Terajima in her recent analysis.

⚡️Ukraine dismisses Russia's accusations https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-dismisses-russias-accusations-of-preparing-false-flags-at-2-ukrainian-dams/ of preparing false flags at 2 Ukrainian dams.

⚡️Kyiv expects to get up to 20 F-16s in 2024 https://kyivindependent.com/kyiv-expects-to-get-up-to-20-f-16s-in-2024-bloomberg-reports/ Bloomberg reports.
NATO is yet concerned about logistical difficulties in maintaining these aircraft and the lack of suitable runways in Ukraine, according to Bloomberg.

⚡️Russia will attack https://kyivindependent.com/russia-will-attack-ukraine-again-from-the-north-budanov-says/ Ukraine again from the north, Budanov says.
Military intelligence Chief Kyrylo Budanov refused to specify if he was talking about an offensive in the oblasts of Sumy or Chernihiv so as not to "provoke panic" but insisted indications were already present that a new attack was imminent.

⚡️Czech President Petr Pavel announced on July 12 that the Czech Republic will send Ukraine 50,000 rounds of ammunition in July and August. https://kyivindependent.com/czech-president-announces-upcoming-shipment-of-shells-to-ukraine/

⚡️Finland passes law to prevent migrants from crossing border https://kyivindependent.com/finland-passes-law-to-prevent-migrants-from-crossing-border-from-russia/ from Russia. Helsinki believes Moscow is promoting the crossings in retaliation for Finland joining NATO.

⚡️US developing new 'extended-range https://kyivindependent.com/us-developing-new-extended-range-missile-for-ukraines-air-force/ ' missile for Ukraine's Air Force.
The new weapon to be developed is an Extended-Range Attack Munition (ERAM), that aims to be a low-cost, quick to produce air-launched missile with a range of around 460 kilometers.
The manufacture of the weapon is intended to begin no later than two years after the awarding of the contract and up to 1,000 are to be produced each year

As Russia's war wages, Ukraine struggles to renegotiate $20 billion debt deal amid looming deadline https://kyivindependent.com/as-russias-war-rages-ukraine-struggles-to-convince-bondholders-to-write-off-up-to-60-of-debt-amid-looming-restructuring-deadline/
With Ukraine desperately seeking cash to fund its defense and wartime budget needs, the country is running out of time before an August 1 deadline to agree with creditors on what portion of its foreign debt will be written off as a so-called “haircut.”
In 2022, Ukraine and its creditors agreed to halt payments owed on its debt when Ukraine’s budget came under severe stress from Russia’s full-scale invasion. With the war raging two years on, the deal to freeze payments on around $23 billion owed to private bondholders will expire at the start of August.

⚡️National Bank sets https://kyivindependent.com/national-bank-sets-new-historic-low-for-hryvnia-exchange-rate/ new historic low for hryvnia exchange rate.

⚡️North Korea threatens NATO https://kyivindependent.com/north-korea-threatens-nato-over-the-summit-declaration/ with 'tougher strategic counteraction' over summit declaration.
Pyongyang denounced the NATO summit declaration, calling it "illegal" and claiming that the "U.S. and NATO pose the most serious threat to the global peace and security.

⚡️One of Kyiv's top tax officials accused of taking bribes, https://kyivindependent.com/one-of-kyivs-top-tax-officials-accused-of-taking-bribes-faces-10-years-in-prison/ faces 10 years in prison.

F-16s are nearly in Ukraine. Will they live up to the hype? https://kyivindependent.com/f-16s-are-nearly-in-ukraine-will-they-live-up-to-the-hype/

⚡️Poland's Sejm recognizes Soviet deportation of Crimean Tatars https://kyivindependent.com/polands-sejm-recognizes-soviet-deportation-of-crimean-tatars-as-genocide/ as genocide.

⚡️Russian attacks on Donetsk Oblast kill 6, injure 19.
⚡️ Russian attacks across Ukraine kill 7, injure 29 over past day.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦

  • JUL 13, 2024
■ Engagements rise above 7-day average, casualties slightly below ■ Artillery, APVs, tanks & special equipment well above average ■ Unfavorable strike ratio; 🇷🇺 strikes above average, 🇺🇦 slightly below

One of Kyiv's top tax officials accused of taking bribes, faces 10 years in prison

In a post on Facebook, the SBU said the man in question had allegedly taken money from the director of a Kyiv-based company that deals with the wholesale selling of fuel.

https://kyivindependent.com/one-of-kyivs-top-tax-officials-accused-of-taking-bribes-faces-10-years-in-prison

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 13/07/2024 14:53

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

❗️The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation complained about the plans of the "Kyiv regime" to destroy the Kyiv HPP and the Kaniv Reservoir.
The Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation explained that with such statements, the Kremlin is trying to cause panic among Ukrainians, hoping that fear will pressure them into making concessions.
“It is impossible to destroy these structures with missile strikes, and the possibility of detonation due to sabotage is excluded, as the dams are under enhanced security,” the Center added.

Poland is considering downing Russian missiles over Ukraine, stated the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Radosław Sikorski.
Sikorski noted that this proposal was included in the joint defense agreement between Poland and Ukraine, signed during President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to Warsaw earlier this week.
“At this stage, this is an idea. Our agreement says that we will study it,” Sikorski said.
He mentioned that some Russian missiles, not far from the Polish border, have crossed Belarusian airspace and entered Polish airspace for about 40 seconds. He admitted that such a short interval “leaves Poland little time to react.”

😏 Budanov knows about attempts on Putin: there were attempts to kill him, but so far they were unsuccessful.
“There have been attempts to kill the head of the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin, but, as you can see, they have been unsuccessful so far,” said Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.
He also noted that Putin has been in power for more than 20 years and that Russians fear losing him because he is seen as “the guarantor of their stability in life.”

NATO helps Ukraine fight, but not win — Foreign Policy.
The newspaper notes that the Russian army has recovered faster than expected after the first months of the full-scale war and is quickly learning to counter the Western high-tech weapons systems that Ukraine is receiving from its allies.
“Ukrainians need more than just what we have created to win,” said Admiral Rob Bauer, chairman of the NATO Military Committee, following the summit in Washington.
Liana Fix, a researcher at the European Council on International Relations, agrees with him:
“There is no real strategy. We, in fact, support Ukraine so that it remains combat-ready and achieves certain successes, but does not win the war.”
The publication notes that the West’s strategy seems to be to strengthen Ukraine’s defenses while waiting for Moscow’s exhaustion. The problem is that Russia is also trying to wait out Ukraine and its Western allies.

YouTube in Russia is experiencing disruptions.
On the morning of July 12, the Russian provider "Rostelecom" issued a warning that the speed of uploading videos to YouTube and their quality may drop due to "technical problems in the operation of Google's equipment."
Media sources suggest that this could be a sign of preparations for a complete blocking of the American service.

Almost 4 hectares of wheat were burned due to shelling by Russian troops in the Zaporizhzhia region, — State Emergency Service.

The solution is as simple as this.

Extreme temperature mid-July 2024 — the more saturated the color, the greater the deviation from the average values 1991-2020.
Ukraine in the epicenter.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 50
Ukraine Invasion: Part 50
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 13/07/2024 15:01

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇧🇪Belgium has declared that it will supply Ukraine with 30 F-16's. But these will be delivered by the end of 2028.
"This is unacceptable to us," Deputy Head of the Office of the President Ihor Zhovkva said.

🇳🇱 The Netherlands was considering https://nos.nl/nieuwsuur/artikel/2528617-waarom-nederland-rusland-uit-de-wind-hield-kort-na-de-ramp-met-vlucht-mh17 military intervention in the crash site of flight MH17, which was shot down in Donbas in 2014
Newly appointed Prime Minister Dick Schoof, who chaired the MH17 crisis committee in 2014, says that the option of military intervention was indeed developed and tested. However, it was a last resort.
This information was confirmed by the then Chief of Defense Staff of the Netherlands Armed Forces, Tom Middendorp. According to him, the government was ready to make a decision.
▪️The Boeing 777 crash occurred on July 17, 2014, at 16:20 local time. According to the investigation, the passenger airliner was hit by a missile. None of the 298 people on board survived.

Western intelligence confirms the Ukrainian General Staff's data on Russian losses. These losses are 8 times higher than the losses of the USSR in Afghanistan over 10 years
When the data obtained by different institutions and calculated in various ways coincide, they are highly reliable.
Keep this in mind the next time you see comments about "Ukrainian propaganda".

Ukraine Invasion: Part 50
Mb76 · 13/07/2024 15:35

The legal service of the EU has determined that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's negotiations with Vladimir Putin last week violated EU treaties, reports the Financial Times (FT).
The legal service informed member states that Orbán's actions breached treaties prohibiting any "measures that could jeopardize the achievement of the Union's objectives."
Furthermore, he violated the provision requiring all members to conduct foreign policy activities "unconditionally in the spirit of loyalty and mutual solidarity."

Will there be any real repercussions for this though?

Mb76 · 13/07/2024 15:46

Extreme temperature mid-July 2024 — the more saturated the color, the greater the deviation from the average values 1991-2020.
Ukraine in the epicenter.

Brutal! Kyiv is currently +35 and tomorrow will be +37 🥵 I remember this kind of heat well, we had this often in the summers in my childhood, it’s dry and parching. Asphalt was melting.

blueshoes · 13/07/2024 17:41

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-12-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • Western and US officials reportedly assess that Ukrainian forces will continue to be on the defensive for the next six months and will not be able to conduct a large-scale counteroffensive operation until 2025. Ukrainian forces are already attempting to contest the tactical initiative in limited counterattacks in select sectors of the front, however, and Ukrainian forces may be able to conduct limited counteroffensive operations even while largely on the defensive depending on the arrival of Western aid.
  • The Kremlin continues to signal its unwillingness to participate in peace negotiations that do not result in complete Ukrainian and Western capitulation to the Kremlin's demands amid ongoing Ukrainian efforts to form an international consensus for future negotiations.
  • Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov used a phone call with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on July 12, his second in three weeks, to reiterate standard Russian threats intended to coerce the US out of supporting Ukraine as part of an ongoing reflexive control campaign targeting Western decision-makers.
  • The United Kingdom (UK) government has reportedly not permitted Ukraine to use UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles to strike military targets within Russia, despite previous Western reporting and UK official statements to the contrary.
  • The US Department of Defense (DoD) announced on July 11 a military aid package for Ukraine worth $225 million.
  • Indian state-run oil refineries are reportedly negotiating an oil import deal with Russia, likely as a result of the recent meetings between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin and improving Russo-Indian energy relations in recent months.
  • The Kremlin continues to intensify efforts to encourage self-censorship among information space voices and consolidate physical control over internet infrastructure.
  • Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
  • Russian infantry units are reportedly assaulting Ukrainian trench positions in single-file columns due to pervasive Ukrainian minefields and poor assault training.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Zaporizhia Oblast occupation administration head Yevgeny Balitsky on July 12 and discussed social and infrastructure projects in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast.
Igotjelly · 13/07/2024 18:42

Mb76 · 13/07/2024 15:46

Extreme temperature mid-July 2024 — the more saturated the color, the greater the deviation from the average values 1991-2020.
Ukraine in the epicenter.

Brutal! Kyiv is currently +35 and tomorrow will be +37 🥵 I remember this kind of heat well, we had this often in the summers in my childhood, it’s dry and parching. Asphalt was melting.

Meanwhile in Scotland it’s 12 degrees and pissing it down 😑

WinterMorn · 13/07/2024 23:22

Christ, has someone just tried to shoot Trump? Some shots fired at a rally and he hits the deck. Looks like his ear is bleeding, but likely superficial.

WinterMorn · 13/07/2024 23:25

Screen grab

Ukraine Invasion: Part 50
PerkingFaintly · 13/07/2024 23:30
Shock
MagicFox · 14/07/2024 07:31

Philips o brien piece on the shooting attempt:

Trump is Shot--What Might it Mean Anything for the War?
Well, it was quite a night last night it seems. There was an assassination attempt against Donald Trump, and it seems that his right ear was either clipped by a bullet or hit by glass shards. What this means for Russia and Ukraine is pretty uncertain, but there are possibilities (none of them good). I thought I would begin by discussing that.
Lets start with the story.
Early yesterday evening (seems to have been around 630pm) as he was speaking at a rally in Butler Pennsylvania, Trump was struck in the ear by a bullet or glass hit by a bullet and blood started flowing quite quickly. The pictures of the attack are very clear.

Source: news.sky.com/story/shots-fired-at-donald-trump-rally-as-former-president-rushed-off-stage-13177651

news.sky.com/story/shots-fired-at-donald-trump-rally-as-former-president-rushed-off-stage-13177651
The Secret Service responded by getting Trump away asap (protocol) and it seems that they quickly killed the shooter—and some other members of the audience also died (everyone killed was a male is all I’ve seen reported). The shooter has not been identified, but there are reports that he was a 20 year old male.
Note—some places are reporting a name. They name the shooterr^ as Thomas Matthew Crooks of Bethel PA (not too far away from the shooting). No motive has been given at this pointt^, according to the FBI.
First things first—don’t overreact to this being the end of US democracy. US democracy was under threat before this event—and this one moment wont make that threat any less rea. Moreover, shooting presidents or presidential candidates has sadly been a regular part of US history for a century and a half. Presidents Lincoln, Garfield, McKinley and Kennedy were all killed by shooters, while Theodore Roosevelt and Reagan were shot but not killed. A number of presidential candidates have also been shot and either killed or seriously wounded, from Huey Long to George Wallace.
So this event is not unusual in US history, and indeed as the US gets more and more inundated with guns, its hardly a surprise that such a shooting is attempted. So there will be lots of dramatic pronouncements in the next days about what this means about the soul of America—that sort of thing. It means little has changed to be honest. This is a regular part of American life and American politics.
Now, what can it mean about the war in Ukraine? Of course the exact answer is we cant know. However, I might hazard a guess, as I think this attempt will lead Trump down a road he has been on for a while—to be more unadulterated Trump in a second term than the first.
I’ve heard people (generally those in Europe trying to put a positive spin on things) say that if Trump comes back into office he wont be so bad, particularlty towards NATO and Ukraine. He’s a business person they will say, and will cut a deal or will be more practical. After all, they say, he provided Ukraine with some weapons when he was president—and he really cant get rid of the NATO alliance.
Ive always hated these arguments because they seems to be dangerously deceptive and built on hopes not reality. Trump in his first term was still operating with many traditional Republican voices around him, from his first Secretary of Defense (James Mattis) to his first Secretary of State (Rex Tillerson). Even his last Defense Secretary (Mike Esper) and Secretary of State (Mike Pompeo) came from a more traditionalist Republican Party background.
In any new Trump administration, loyalty will be the key criteria for selection. Will you do what Trump wants—and will you bend all laws and rules to help him benefit. It will be Trump unchained as it were.
If anything this shooting will mean that he will be more willing to disregard restraint and just do anything he wants.
And if you have been following the last weeks closely, he is dropping more and more hints that he is ready to abandon Ukraine and Europe as a whole—regardless of what European states do. During the debate two weeks ago, which has led everyone to focus on Biden’s mental acuity, people overlooked the fact that Trump was very positive about Putin, snide about Zelensky and basically talked BS about how he would end the war in a moment. I had a transcript in my weekend review two weeks ago.
Since then the situation only got worse. There were reports just a few days ago that Trump was thinking about reducing intelligence sharing with European partners were he re-elected. Trump supporters were supposedly briefing people that this would be part of a “broader” plan to reduce the US support for Europe were Trump elected.
btw this is an insane idea. Intelligence sharing is an important element in keeping US military personnel and citizens safe overseas—the US gains as much from it as it offers in many cases. Reducing it will just make Americans more unsafe—and it will certainly help Putin (which is what it might be intended to do).
This latest gambit is particularly worrying because it shows that the NATO 2% rule, which Trump has always used as his reason to reduce US commitment to Europe, has always been nothing more than a straw man. The large majority of European NATO states are now meeting or greatly exceeding the 2% threshold (more than two-thirds according to this week’s NATO communique) Indeed, Poland in on track to spend a remarkable 5% on defense next year.
In other words, before the shooting there were signs that Trump was out to cut back (and frankly maybe even end) US support for its NATO European partners regardless of whether those states met the agreed upon targets.
The final worrying sign this week is that it seems that JD Vance is getting lots of consideration by Trump to be his VP candidate. Vance has staked out a position on the extreme anti-Ukraine, pro-Putin wing of the Republican Party. He’s been one of the most consistent opponents of any aid for Ukraine, and supporter of giving Putin what he wants. If he is selected, its a further sign that Ukraine will be cut adrift.
So the signs even before the shooting was that Trump was heading down an aggressively pro-Putin, anti-Ukraine road. The shooting (if it has an impact) will probably be to exacerbate his suspicion and ego-centricity. He will be more likely to do whatever the hell he wants.
Its another sign (though to be frank none are needed at this point) about the need for Europe to prepare for a future without US security guarantees—in only a few months. Its amazing how this moment is approaching—and people dont seem to understand its possible importance.
btw, if youre interested, I had a piece out in The Atlantic yesterday about how to Trump-Proof Ukraine now (as much as possible). The shooting makes that proofing more important than ever.

OP posts:
Igotjelly · 14/07/2024 07:45

As with when it happened to Fico, I don’t like the man or his politics but there should be no place for this sort of thing in any democracy.

I do however think it’ll seal his victory for him, his supporters will be even more riled up than before.

MagicFox · 14/07/2024 08:06

I agree, the pictures are very powerful and will do him nothing but good

OP posts:
Igotjelly · 14/07/2024 08:09

I have to say i’m enjoying in the picture that it’s a tiny female agent that’s shielding him with her body 😂

MagicFox · 14/07/2024 08:16

Maybe this will change his stance on gun control but I won't hold my breath

OP posts:
Igotjelly · 14/07/2024 08:36

Fuck me the shooter was only 20, that in itself is a tragedy, just a kid!

prettybird · 14/07/2024 08:56

I'm not normally a conspiracy theorist but it's very convenient that the shooter was killed so we will never truly know his motivation Hmm or indeed if he was put up to it and by whom

Such a young man Sad and a Republican at that Hmm

A serious assassination attempt from a roof nearby would involved the sniper being there and ready hours (if not a day) in advance, not "crawling across the roof" just beforehand ConfusedHmm and wouldn't have missed

As it is, who benefits from the events of last night? HmmSad

Mb76 · 14/07/2024 09:11

Crikey! My initial reaction was what a shame he missed. But it is all indeed very conveniently playing into Trump’s hands. A stunt like this, Putin would approve.

Igotjelly · 14/07/2024 09:17

I thought maybe a fix but given 2 spectators were shot in the head and died, plus the FBI are treating it as a legitimate assassination attempt I’m inclined to think it was real.

Igotjelly · 14/07/2024 09:18

I think it discredits just how febrile politics in the US has become to go down the conspiracy line of thinking.

Natsku · 14/07/2024 10:28

Its very worrying, this will boost Trump's votes I'm sure

MissConductUS · 14/07/2024 10:40

Natsku · 14/07/2024 10:28

Its very worrying, this will boost Trump's votes I'm sure

I doubt it will move the polls. The relatively few undecided voters won't see this as making Trump a better candidate.

It's daft that some people are already saying that this was done to help Trump in some sort of conspiracy. Had that bullet gone two inches to the right Trump would be dead.

MissConductUS · 14/07/2024 10:42

Igotjelly · 14/07/2024 09:17

I thought maybe a fix but given 2 spectators were shot in the head and died, plus the FBI are treating it as a legitimate assassination attempt I’m inclined to think it was real.

One spectator and the gunman were killed.

Of course it was a real assassination attempt.

Natsku · 14/07/2024 10:45

MissConductUS · 14/07/2024 10:40

I doubt it will move the polls. The relatively few undecided voters won't see this as making Trump a better candidate.

It's daft that some people are already saying that this was done to help Trump in some sort of conspiracy. Had that bullet gone two inches to the right Trump would be dead.

I hope you're right.

MissConductUS · 14/07/2024 12:18

According to news reports, the roof he was firing from was at least 130 yards away. Assuming he had no military service and no specialized marksmanship training at age 20, that was a difficult shot with a bog-standard AR-type rifle. And he missed at least four times.

If there was a conspiracy to kill Trump, it was a bloody poor one. I'm just surprised that it took the Secret Service agents as long as it did to locate and neutralize him.

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