Ukraine Invasion: Part 50

[MagicFox]

Welcome, with love and thanks to all contributors and lurkers. Unbelievably, we’re on thread 50. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

Screen grab:

Oh dear god

He’s gone surely, there can’t be any coming back from this….. again!

It was jaw-droppingly bad.

It really was, it wasn’t even fumbling nonsense it was clear as day. And this is during the scripted part 🤦‍♀️

In more positive news (not sure if it’s live or from earlier) Starmer sounding wonderful and statesman like. We really are back to being the grownups (not too grown up though 😂) in the room.

I am watching his press conference now on SKY and he is handling the inevitable Biden questions with a lot of grace.

Keir Starmers press conference is going well I think.
Brilliant speech, and handling the questions well.
He's handling putins slip up well.

Putin's slip up?

<teasing>

Proves the point on how easy it is to screw up when you're tired, especially when you have something/someone on your mind.

I hear ya, all too well :-)

Well this is disappointing!

https://x.com/KyivPost/status/1811673765262024962

Kyiv Post:
The UK Ministry of Defence clarified that it did not give #Ukraine permission to use #StormShadow missiles to strike Russian territory, The Telegraph reported.

For a while I kept referring to Putin as Hitler - so close did the two become in my mind, so I understand how easy a slip up like that is. However I'm not POTUS - one or two verbal slip ups are expected but the amount we're seeing means Biden isn't going to recover from this - his fitness to govern is under intense scrutiny and that isn't going to go away even if he is miraculously gaff free from this point. Who could take over to run though is another dilemma as Kamila Harris seems to have very poor approval ratings 🙈

I am happy its not my problem to sort out.

God, if only we could have Blinken instead.

@WinterMorn Blinken would be fantastic. I was asking on here weeks ago if our US posters thought he might run next time. I find him so measured, statesman-like, patient.
Watching Biden dissolving into King Lear is a horror show.

Can anyone find the comments by Governor of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina that she made recently about the economy having 3 serious challenges, inflation was one? I can't offhand find them but I know they were significant comments.

Didn’t you link to them on here?

I found 'em in the end. From Tass no less, which is not known for publishing anything but panegyric praises of Russia. https://tass.com/economy/1811943

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️US, Germany disrupted https://kyivindependent.com/us-germany-disrupted-russian-plot-to-assassinate-rheinmetall-ceo-cnn-reports/ Russian plot to assassinate Rheinmetall CEO, CNN reports.
U.S. intelligence agencies discovered a Russian-linked plot to assassinate Armin Papperger, the CEO of German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall, CNN reported on July 11, citing intelligence sources.
After obtaining intelligence about the plans, the U.S. then shared the information with their German counterparts, who "were then able to protect Papperger and foil the plot."

⚡️China rejects https://kyivindependent.com/china-rejects-nato-assertion-that-it-is-decisive-enabler-of-russias-war-against-ukraine/ NATO assertion that it is 'decisive enabler' of Russia's war against Ukraine.

⚡️European allies ready to cut China investment https://kyivindependent.com/european-allies-ready-to-cut-china-investment-over-russia-backing-biden-says/ over Russia backing, Biden says.
European NATO countries are ready to curb their investments in China over the country's support for Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, U.S. President Joe Biden said on July 11 in Washington.

⚡️NATO summit ends with 32 countries signing Ukraine Compact https://kyivindependent.com/nato-summit-ends-with-32-countries-signing-ukraine-compact/ "This historic Compact creates a unified and comprehensive security architecture to support Ukraine today and in the future, in war and in peace," a White House press briefing said.

⚡️ Orban discusses 'ways to make peace' with Trump https://kyivindependent.com/orban-orban-discusses-ways-to-make-peace-with-trump-in-florida/ in Florida.

⚡️The United Nations General Assembly adopted a resolution on July 11 demanding that Russia withdraw from the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) and restore full control of the facility to Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/un-demands-russia-withdraw-from-occupied-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant/

⚡️ Permission to strike Russia with UK missiles 'not a done deal,' British officials tell Telegraph https://kyivindependent.com/uks-permission-to-strike-russia-with-storm-shadow-missiles-not-a-done-deal/

France, Germany, Italy, and Poland announced on July 11 that they have agreed to develop ground-launched cruise missiles with a range exceeding 500 kilometers (around 310 miles), Reuters reported. https://kyivindependent.com/france-germany-italy-poland-to-develop-new-long-range-cruise-missiles/

The permission for Ukraine to strike inside Russia with Danish-supplied F-16s will "depend on the circumstances," Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen told RFE/RL on July 12 while confirming that it will be allowed in some cases. https://kyivindependent.com/depends-on-circumstances-danish-pm-says-on-ukraine-using-f-16s-to-strike-russia/

Belarus Weekly: China, Belarus conduct joint drills https://kyivindependent.com/belarus-weekly-china-belarus-conduct-joint-drills-near-nato-ukraine-borders/ near NATO, Ukraine borders

Russian revenues from its oil export industry fell again to their lowest point in four months, Bloomberg reported on July 11, citing data from the International Energy Agency. https://kyivindependent.com/russias-oil-export-revenues-continue-to-drop-for-4th-straight-month/

⚡️ Indian state refiners discussing long-term oil import deal https://kyivindependent.com/indian-state-refiners-discussing-long-term-oil-import-deal-with-russia-reuters-reports/ with Russia, Reuters reports.
India's state-run refiners are in talks with Russia about a long-term oil import deal, Reuters reported on July 11, citing an undisclosed government source.
India and Russia need to finalize agreements, such as the payment currency for the imports, the source told Reuters.

⚡️A Russian pilot passed on confidential information to Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) that helped identify 30 commanders of the Russian heavy bomber aviation division, a source in the agency told the Kyiv Independent on July 11. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-pilot-leaked-secret-data-on-russias-aviation-division-to-ukraines-military-intelligence-source-says/
"He was shocked by the attack on the children's hospital"

⚡️Biden mistakenly introduces https://kyivindependent.com/biden-mistakenly-introduces-zelensky-as-president-putin/ Zelensky as 'President Putin.'

⚡️ Moscow plans to block YouTube https://kyivindependent.com/moscow-plans-to-block-youtube-in-september-russian-media-reports/ in fall, Russian media claims.

⚡️Ukraine signs security agreement with Romania. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-signs-security-agreement-with-romania/

Ukraine sees surge https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-sees-surge-in-female-soldiers-with-over-10-000-women-serving-on-front-lines-deputy-pm-says/ in female soldiers with over 10,000 women serving on front lines, Deputy PM says. The total marks a significant increase in the number of women serving active combat roles, which was around 5,000 women during the first year of the full-scale invasion.

⚡️ Poland prepares Ukrainian Legion https://kyivindependent.com/poland-preparing-ukrainian-legion-several-thousand-already-registered/ 'several thousand' already registered.
Poland has begun preparing the first Ukrainian Legion of volunteers with "several thousand" people already having registered to participate, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, said on July 11.

⚡️Australia announces https://kyivindependent.com/australia-announces-168-million-in-military-aid-for-ukraine/ $168 million in military aid for Ukraine.

⚡️ Netherlands to contribute around $22 million to drones https://kyivindependent.com/netherlands-to-contribute-around-22-million-to-drones-for-ukraine/ for Ukraine.

⚡️Canada to increase https://kyivindependent.com/canada-to-increase-defense-spending-hit-2-of-gdp-by-2032/ defense spending, hit 2% of GDP by 2032.

⚡️ Explosions reported near airport https://kyivindependent.com/explosions-reported-in-occupied-mariupol/ in Russian-occupied Mariupol.

⚡️Russia begins paying https://kyivindependent.com/russia-begins-paying-families-of-indians-killed-fighting-in-ukraine-bbc-reports/ families of Indians killed fighting in Ukraine, BBC reports.

⚡️ Russian deep-sea vehicle damaged after collision in Norwegian Sea https://kyivindependent.com/russian-deep-sea-vehicle-damaged/ Ukraine's military intelligence said. The crew of the vehicle's carrier, the rescue ship of Russia's Northern Fleet Mikhail Rudnitsky, "lost control" while launching AS-36 on July 1. The ship's hull and the AS-36 collided, the agency said.

⚡️ Australia charges Russian-born couple with planning espionage for Moscow. https://kyivindependent.com/australia-charges-couple-espionage/

⚡️Court in far eastern Russian city sentences https://kyivindependent.com/russian-court-sentences-student-to-5-years-in-prison-for-passing-troop-locations-to-kyiv/ student to prison for 'passing troop locations to Kyiv' online. The student collected information "using the internet" about the locations of Russian troops fighting in Ukraine in exchange for payment from the SBU, Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) told the state-run media outlet RIA Novosti.

⚡️ Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 7, injure 43 https://kyivindependent.com/attacks-59/ over past day.
⚡️ Number of injured in Russia's July 8 attack https://kyivindependent.com/number-of-injured-in-russian-july-8-attack-against-kryvyi-rih-rises-to-53/ on Kryvyi Rih rises to 53.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦
‪

• JUL 12, 2024

■ Engagements below average, casualties >1k ■ Big equipment losses; 5 Kh-101 missiles intercepted ■ Info on 🇷🇺 strikes not available; 9 🇺🇦 strikes ■ Janovsky: 45 🇷🇺 13 🇺🇦 (incl. 2 older) added to records; 30-day ratio at 3.1x

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The legal service of the EU has determined that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's negotiations with Vladimir Putin last week violated EU treaties, reports the Financial Times (FT).
The legal service informed member states that Orbán's actions breached treaties prohibiting any "measures that could jeopardize the achievement of the Union's objectives."
Furthermore, he violated the provision requiring all members to conduct foreign policy activities "unconditionally in the spirit of loyalty and mutual solidarity."

On the sidelines of the summit in Washington, Greece, Bulgaria, and Romania signed an agreement to create a military corridor on NATO's eastern flank, announced Greek Defense Minister Nikos Dendias.
The agreement aims to ensure more effective mobility of military contingents and equipment both within and outside Europe.
The plan involves the integration of four ports and their infrastructure, linking the cities of Varna, Constanta, Thessaloniki, and Alexandroupolis. Additionally, it includes the creation of the largest NATO base in Europe, located in Romania.

⚡️ In June, Ukraine spent $79 million on electricity purchases from neighboring countries, doubling the amount spent in May, according to Forbes.
In the first days of July, these purchases reached the maximum technical capacity.
Currently, during peak hours, the imported electricity covers only about 15% of the country's needs.

The Kremlin has decided to rewrite "Wikipedia" and create a new version of history, reports The Economist.
Specifically, Moscow aims to achieve this through its own censored version of the RuWiki resource.
"Wikipedia" has faced challenges from the Kremlin before, with Russian censors threatening it almost from the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine in 2014.
RuWiki, as Russian censors call the project, is largely a direct copy of "Wikipedia." However, in the Russian version, the most sensitive historical moments are omitted or rewritten. Kremlin ideologues hope that millions of Russians will now accept these revised versions as truth
RuWiki, as Russian censors call the project, is largely a direct copy of "Wikipedia." However, in the Russian version, the most sensitive historical moments are omitted or rewritten. Kremlin ideologues hope that millions of Russians will now accept these revised versions as truth
All references to Alexei Navalny, considered a Russian opposition leader, have been changed to describe him merely as a "blogger."
An analysis of the site by the independent Russian media organization Mediazona shows that the vast majority of new edits are made during business hours on weekdays. This suggests that the editing is done by teams of paid authors, unlike Wikipedia's volunteer model.

Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia will be disconnected from the energy system of the Russian Federation and Belarus in February 2025, — Lithuanian Ministry of Energy
The countries confirmed their intentions to synchronize with the continental European energy system - ENTSO-E.

The two buildings of the Ohmatdyt Children’s Hospital, destroyed by a Russian missile attack on July 8, 2024, cannot be restored and will be replaced with a new building, partially funded by charitable donations, according to Minister of Health Viktor Lyashko. Electricity and water supply have already been restored in Ohmatdyt, and work is ongoing to restore the operating rooms. Efforts are currently focused on preparing the hospital to welcome back children with cancer.

💔 "Military Target"—a new piece of art by Ukrainian artist Boris Grokh

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

1699 fire and rescue vehicles were damaged by the Russian forces since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the State Emergency Service reported.
These include fire, rescue, service vehicles, personnel transportation vehicles, trucks and more.

Ihor Voronka, a leading singer of the Dumka National Academic Chapel, Honoured Artist of Ukraine, opera singer and actor, has been killed in action.

A passenger plane crashed near Moscow
The Russian media claimed that only the crew was on board.

After the strike on Okhmatdyt, a Russian pilot "shocked by the attack on the children's hospital" wrote to the DIU chatbot and passed on data that helped identify 30 commanders of the 22nd Heavy Bombardment Aviation Division (military unit 06987, Engels airfield), according to intelligence sources
The array of information includes documents from the personnel files of senior officers, personal data of Russian military personnel and their family members, etc.
In the photo provided by the DIU - commanders of the 22nd Division

After the strike on Okhmatdyt, a Russian pilot "shocked by the attack on the children's hospital" wrote to the DIU chatbot and passed on data that helped identify 30 commanders of the 22nd Heavy Bombardment Aviation Division (military unit 06987, Engels airfield), according to intelligence sources
The array of information includes documents from the personnel files of senior officers, personal data of Russian military personnel and their family members, etc.

Sounds like a decent intelligence coup but I wouldn’t mind betting the spooks in the west already have most of that. Back in the day we were told to assume that the opposition held personnel files on aircrew who might possibly fall into their hands.

I gather there were some really interesting conversations had between some individuals when there was a bit of a fashion for liaison visits between NATO and ex-Warpac air force units the early nineties…..

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-russia-war-latest-updates-putin-kyiv-sky-news-blog-12541713?postid=7962094#liveblog-body

The Kremlin has reached out to Washington to initiate talks, certainly not insignificant. Details are slim but seems to be aimed largely at reducing the risk of escalation.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-11-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Russian authorities reportedly attempted to assassinate leading figures in the European defense industrial base (DIB), likely as part of Russian efforts to disrupt and deter Western aid to Ukraine and Russia's wider efforts to destabilize NATO members.
• Finnish authorities reported an increase in GPS "malfunctions" in the past week and that most disruptions to aviation and maritime GPS and radar originate from within Russia.
• Ukraine intends to hold a second meeting of the Global Peace Summit by the end of 2024 and reportedly plans to invite Russia to participate.
• European Union (EU) leadership is reportedly considering restricting Hungary's power as EU Council president following Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's meeting with Russian president Vladimir Putin in Moscow and his efforts to present himself as a potential mediator between Russia and Ukraine.
• The Russian government continued efforts to root out critical voices and consolidate control over the Russian information space.
• The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) claimed that it prevented a terrorist attack against an Orthodox church in Maykop, Republic of Adygea on July 11.
• Ukrainian forces advanced north of Kharkiv City; and Russian forces recently advanced south of Siversk, northwest of Avdiivka, and west of Donetsk City.
• Russian federal subjects (regions) continue to use monetary incentives as part of Russia's crypto-mobilization recruitment efforts.