Ukraine Invasion: Part 50

[MagicFox]

Welcome, with love and thanks to all contributors and lurkers. Unbelievably, we’re on thread 50. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-2-2024

Key Takeaways:

1. The interplay between ongoing Russian offensive operations in the Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Avdiivka directions indicates that the Russian military command may intend to leverage the ongoing Toretsk push to create operational opportunities for advances in either the Chasiv Yar or Avdiivka areas. Russian preparations that can support multiple future branch plans suggest a more developed level of operational planning and foresight than the Russian command has proven capable of executing thus far in the war since early 2022. The ability of this operational planning to come to fruition, however, will be bounded by the overall poor tactical-level capabilities of Russian forces currently fighting in these areas.
2. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban likely used his unannounced visit to Kyiv on July 2 to posture himself as a peacemaker following Hungary's accession to the European Union (EU) Council presidency on July 1, but Orban’s efforts are very unlikely to bring about any robust peace in Ukraine.
3. The Kremlin is waging an intensified information campaign aimed at pushing Ukraine to negotiate with Russia on Russian terms, and any Russian, Western, or other efforts to cajole Ukraine to prematurely negotiate with Russia would only weaken Ukraine and embolden further Russian aggression inside and beyond Ukraine.
4. Several Russian State Duma deputies proposed a bill that would exclude a significant number of ethnicities from Russia's "compatriots" resettlement program, undermining the Kremlin's efforts to leverage its "compatriots abroad" to offset Russian labor shortages and set informational conditions to justify potential hybrid operations against other countries with Russian and Russian-speaking populations.
5. Ukrainian forces struck an ammunition depot at a Russian military base in occupied Crimea on July 1 that reportedly housed Shahed drones.
6. Russia may be intensifying its efforts to conduct reconnaissance and disrupt communications in the underwater and air space near NATO states.
7. Russian authorities appear to be publicly fixating on crackdowns against fight clubs and restricting the niqab to signal that Russian authorities are adequately combatting terrorist threats in the North Caucasus instead of addressing systemic issues of Islamist extremism in the region.
8. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on July 2 assigning the Russian 999th Air Base in Kant, Kyrgyzstan the "guards" honorific for "mass heroism and bravery."
9. Russian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk, Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka, and the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
10. Russia is reportedly recruiting women from Russian penal colonies to fight in Ukraine, and some of these recruits are reportedly fighting on the frontline.

I think we can safely say that in this particular conflict the russian side is definitely 'less humane', we don't need confirmation of them using human waves to verify that. They are the aggressor and their tactics of rape/torture/starvation/executions are well documented. They commit war crimes with blatant disregard for international laws and have relentlessly targeted civilians and infrastructure in Ukraine rather than only military targets.

To the manpower question, there are reports that wounded Russian soldiers, some still on crutches or with casts on broken limbs, are being sent back to the front to fight. Some of this may be down to Russian commanders lying to their superiors about the number of casualties they have taken.

https://x.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1808098253008744539

A "humane" army would not routinely torture and execute civilians in the territory they occupy.

@UptonSinnclare It's my guess based on a number of factors; Bakhmut was reported as being taken by human waves (widely reported), so was another large gain Avdiivka. The smaller settlements also seem to have been human-loss-heavy when taken by Russia.

Juxtapose that with the increasing efforts to recruit from other lands, the slow (but still not high level) increase in recruitment from the big cities eg St Petersburg and the massive increase in enlistment bonus per soldier - up from the price of one year's labour in the far provinces up to the cost of several years' labour. Pushing seriously injured soldiers back into the front line, as @MissConductUS says.

The losses in hardware have been gigantic. Even assuming that there are fuzzy and inaccurate areas in the assessment, as the Kyiv Independent hinted at recently, over the last years they have been huge. You don't get 60 year old tanks out and issue firearms from early 1900's if you aren't struggling. For weeks there have been well into 20's, 30's, 40's of artillery losses almost every day. Over 2 years into the war, that mounts up to a lot.

Plus over 1000 a day except for a very few, again for many weeks now. Put the loss of hardware and the loss of huge numbers of soldiers together and imo it's clear that Russia's using their old traditional human waves tactics.

Its been a very busy day - Ill try to do the roundup later tonight.

Thanks Duckling, I'm sure no one will mind if you take a day off.
I'm sure you didn't imagine you'd still be providing us all with daily updates 2 and a half years later when this gruesome war of aggression began, and sadly no end in sight.

Thank you ... No I didn't. Like many I wish profoundly that Ukraine could gain some significant success now, other than the campaign in Crimea. On the quiet there -are- bits of good news here and there but yes, it's gone on a long time and severe challenges remain.

Fuck Russia, its cruelty and its shills.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Trump reportedly considering making deal with Putin to block https://kyivindependent.com/trump-reportedly-considering-making-deal-with-putin-to-foreclose-nato-ukraine-accession-officials-tell-politico/ Ukraine's NATO accession, officials tell Politico. [Oh, that might explain our latest shill's link]

⚡️Putin arrives in Kazakhstan https://kyivindependent.com/putin-arrives-in-kazakhstan-for-the-russia-china-led-summit/ for Russia-China-led summit.

The active Russia-Ukraine front line has recently expanded as intense fighting continues in the areas of Pokrovsk and Toretsk, Ukraine's Chief Commander Oleksandr Syrskyi said on July 2. https://kyivindependent.com/active-russia-ukraine-front-line-has-expanded-syrskyi-says/

⚡️ NATO agreed to commit 40 billion euros https://kyivindependent.com/nato-agreed-to-commit-40-billion-euros/ in military aid to Ukraine next year, source tells Reuters.

⚡️'More news' on air defense for Ukraine https://kyivindependent.com/more-news-on-air-defense-for-ukraine-may-come-ahead-of-nato-summit/ may come ahead of NATO summit, Blinken says.

⚡️Allies believe China allegedly developing attack drones https://kyivindependent.com/china-allegedly-developing-attack-drones-to-aid-russia-bloomberg-reports/ to aid Russia, Bloomberg reports.
Chinese companies are allegedly developing attack drones similar to the Iranian-produced Shahed-type drone to aid Russia in its war against Ukraine, Bloomberg reported on July 2, citing European officials familiar with the matter.

Russia struggles to control finances https://kyivindependent.com/russia-tries-to-keep-financial-system-under-control-as-military-spending-soars/ as Ukraine invasion spending soars
As the war is the Kremlin's number one priority, all tools at its disposal have been used: increased taxation, sovereign funds, domestic borrowing, and the printing of money.

⚡️ Ukraine receives $2.2 billion https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-receives-2-2-billion-from-imf/ from IMF.

⚡️Ukraine imports more electricity https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-imports-more-electricity-in-june/ in June than in all of 2023.

Ukraine war latest: Zelensky dismissed https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-july-2/ Orban's ceasefire proposal during his visit to Kyiv, official says

⚡️Lithuania issues protest, summons https://kyivindependent.com/lithuania-issues-protest-summons-representatives-after-russian-aircraft-enter-airspace/ representatives after Russian aircraft enters airspace.

⚡️Ukraine receives https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-receives-nearly-6-000-solar-panels-to-power-hospitals/ nearly 6,000 solar panels to power hospitals.

⚡️Russia-based disinformation network linked https://kyivindependent.com/russia-based-disinformation-network-linked-to-fake-story-about-zelenskas-bugatti-purchase-bbc-says/ to fake story about Zelenska's Bugatti purchase, BBC says.
A network of Russia-based websites posing as U.S. newspapers are behind a campaign of AI-assisted fake news stories aimed at the upcoming American presidential election, the BBC reported on July 3.
One recent high-profile example was a fake story claiming that Ukraine's First Lady Olena Zelenska had purchased a $4.8 million Bugatti luxury car with U.S. taxpayer money.

⚡️Muftiate in Russia's Dagestan introduces temporary ban https://kyivindependent.com/dagestan-muftiate-introduces-temporary-ban-on-niqabs-following-terrorist-attack/ on niqabs following terrorist attack.

⚡️ Russian defector involved in Russia's Baltic Fleet vessel sabotage https://kyivindependent.com/russian-defector-involved-in-baltic-fleet-vessel-sabotage-in-april-military-intelligence-says/ military intelligence says.
A sabotage of a Russian vessel in Kaliningrad Oblast in April was part of a joint operation of the Freedom of Russia Legion and Ukraine's military intelligence project "I Want to Live," the agency revealed at a press conference on July 3 attended by a Kyiv Independent reporter.

⚡️ Ukrainian drone attack https://kyivindependent.com/ukrianian-drone-attack-damages-belgorod-oblast-plant/ damaged Russia's only full-cycle metallurgical enterprise, source says.
A Ukrainian drone attack on July 1 seriously damaged the Oskol Electrometallurgical Plant in Belgorod Oblast, a military intelligence source told the Kyiv Independent on July 3.

⚡️Support for NATO in member states remains broad https://kyivindependent.com/support-for-nato-across-europe-remains-broad-confidence-in-zelensky-declines-poll-finds/ confidence in Zelensky declines, poll finds.

Ukrainian optimism about war clashes with European skepticism in new poll https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-optimism-about-war-clashes-with-european-skepticism-in-new-poll/ Conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), the poll found that while support for Ukraine and a willingness to provide arms to Kyiv remain high, the differing views could have profound political effects in the coming months and years.

⚡️Lukashenko releases https://kyivindependent.com/lukashenko-releases-some-political-prisoners-tsikhanouskaya/ some political prisoners, Tsikhanouskaya says.

⚡️ One phone call from President Xi https://kyivindependent.com/one-phone-call-from-president-xi-would-end-russias-war-finnish-president-says/ would end Russia's war, Finnish president says.
Russia's reliance on China has developed to the point where Beijing could end a war with one phone call, Finnish President Alexander Stubb said in an interview with Bloomberg published on July 3.

⚡️Kyiv refuses to release first Russian soldier convicted of war crimes in POW exchange. https://kyivindependent.com/kyiv-refuses-to-release-first-russian-soldier-convicted-of-war-crimes-as-part-of-exchange/

A Russian court on July 2 sentenced a 19-year-old to 12 years in prison for "treason" after he was accused of donating money to the Ukrainian army. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-jails-teenager-for-sending-money-to-ukrainian-army/

⚡️4 people injured in Russian FAB-500 bomb attack on Kharkiv.
⚡️ Update: at least 5 killed, 47 injured after Russian attack on Dnipro.
⚡️ Russian attacks across Ukraine kill 9, injure 44 over past day.
⚡️Russian guided bomb attack on Kharkiv injures at least 6 including child.
⚡️1 killed, 3 injured after Russian attack near Poltava.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦 @ragnarbjartur.bsky.social

1. JUL 3, 2024

■ Engagements & casualties slightly above 7-day average
■ Equipment losses stay high; record 7-day artillery losses
■ Decreased shelling but 🇷🇺/🇺🇦 strike ratio could be better Note: Extra graph shows weekly artillery losses

Ugh. Ugh, ugh ugh

Russia is searching for dead children's identities worldwide to use them for its agents, according to German journalist Florian Fade in an interview with Bild.

In 2013, two Russian agents were tried in Germany and later extradited to Russia. They had lived in Germany for years under the false names Andreas and Heydrun Anschlag, posing as an ordinary married couple. Even their daughter was unaware that her parents had been spying for Moscow since the 1980s. Recently, the ARD TV channel published an extensive investigation about the Anshlag family and the broader system of Russian espionage in Germany.

"These people live among us for years, sometimes even decades, with completely false identities. They often create families where even the children do not know their parents' true identities. They don't know they are Russians, that they are spies, or that they have relatives in Russia. This method of using illegal agents is primarily a Russian trait. They have been doing this for over 100 years. The program of illegals was created in the early years of the USSR, and later continued under the KGB.

The uniqueness of this program lies in sending people to target countries with completely falsified identities. Sometimes these identities are based on real ones, especially those of dead children, because little is known about them, making it easier to assume their identity. Russian and former Soviet diplomats worked globally, particularly in South America and Africa. They would walk through cemeteries looking for dead children, noting their names and birth dates. They then forged birth certificates in those countries to create new identities. This is how legends were created. The identities of those children were stolen, and new ones were crafted for spies," explained Fade, the author of the investigation.

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The United States has announced a new aid package for Ukraine worth $150 million. The package consists of two main parts:
1. The first tranche of $150 million includes:
- Missiles for the HAWK surface-to-air missile system.
- Ammunition for HIMARS.
- 155 mm and 105 mm artillery shells, 81 mm mortar shells.
- TOW missiles, Javelin, and AT-4 anti-tank systems.
- Small arms ammunition, grenades, explosive equipment, and ammunition.
- Tactical vehicles for towing and transporting equipment.
- Spare parts, maintenance, and other field and auxiliary equipment.
- Tactical air navigation systems and aircraft support equipment.
2. The second part is a $2.2 billion package for Patriot and NASAMS air defense interceptor missiles, provided under an accelerated procedure due to a change in the order of US foreign deliveries.

Almost a quarter of Americans believe that the US does not provide enough military aid to Ukraine, an increase compared to November last year. However, more Americans (31%) think the US gives too much aid, while 25% think it gives enough aid.
The US is the only country among respondents where there is a significant ideological divide on this issue: 51% of Americans who identify as right-wing think the US provides too much support for Ukraine, compared to 13% among those with left-leaning views.
In Hungary and Türkiye, the most common opinion is that their countries provide approximately sufficient support to Ukraine (61% and 46%, respectively).
In Poland, opinions are divided: nearly equal shares of respondents believe their country provides Ukraine with too much (44%) or enough (45%) aid. Only 6% believe that Poland provides insufficient aid to Ukraine.

Ukraine is negotiating to send natural gas from Azerbaijan to the European Union, aiming to maintain its role as a transit country and help its western neighbors ensure energy security. The agreement to replace Russian gas with Azerbaijani gas is "one of the proposals" currently being discussed.

🇱🇹 Vilnius authorities are purchasing "dragon's teeth" and anti-tank hedgehogs to protect the city as part of a defense plan in the event of an attack, announced Mayor Valdas Benkunskas.

"Shaheds" have appeared in the arsenal of the Belarusian Armed Forces. It is not yet clear whether the Lukashenko regime has started independent production of these drones or if the Russians have provided several dozen for display, making their adoption merely formal.

The Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine reports that Russians have executed over 110 Ukrainian prisoners of war after their capture, including those killed in Olenivka. According to Yuriy Belousov, the International Criminal Court (ICC) is collaborating with Ukrainian investigators to investigate the torture and mistreatment of Ukrainian POWs in Russian prisons.
This systematic torture of Ukrainian prisoners indicates that it is a deliberate component of Russia's policy.

Zelenskyy urged US presidential candidate Donald Trump to present his plan for a quick end to the conflict with Russia, emphasizing that any proposal must not compromise Ukraine's sovereignty, — Bloomberg reports.

The volume of Russian oil exports by sea has risen to the highest level since March, according to Bloomberg. In the seven days leading up to June 30, sea flows of Russian oil increased by approximately 620,000 barrels per day, reaching 3.67 million barrels. The gross value of Russian oil supplies soared by 25%.
The weekly export volume jump was attributed to rising oil prices, which pushed the value of Russian export grades to their highest level since April. Additionally, during the last week, Russia resumed operations at large oil terminals in Primorsk on the Baltic Sea and Kozmino on the Pacific coast.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇵🇱🇩🇪 Poland and Germany will increase https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/scholz-takes-german-cabinet-poland-with-defence-high-agenda-2024-07-02/ their presence on NATO's eastern flank due to the threat from Russia.
Earlier, these countries, together with the Netherlands, signed an agreement that will reduce bureaucracy and allow for the rapid deployment of NATO troops on the eastern border.

Chinese and Russian companies are developing https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-02/china-is-building-and-testing-lethal-attack-drones-for-russia?srnd=homepage-europe an attack drone that is analogous to Iran's Shahed drone.
In 2023, Chinese and Russian companies held talks on cooperation, after which the development and testing of the drone began. So far, Chinese drones have not been used in the war against Ukraine.

🇨🇿🇺🇦In the Czech Republic, the UAC company launched serial production of UAVs for Ukraine, - Czech publication E15
These are Leleka-LR reconnaissance UAVs and Bulava strike drones. The company plans to manufacture and supply about a hundred such drones per year

Novorossiysk, Russia was attacked by unmanned boats. There is a naval base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Novorossiysk.

🏚 Russian troops have announced the capture of the Kanal neighborhood in Chasiv Yar (Donetsk Oblast). The DeepState project showed a photo of the area - it was destroyed to the ground and has become virtually unusable for defense
The commander of the Revenge tactical group, Bohdan Khodakovsky, writes that the Russians took Kanal at the cost of huge losses and scorched earth tactics, but this brings them closer to capturing the city.

The Russian shelling of Kharkiv injured 14 people, including a baby and an 8-year-old boy.
Private houses, high-rise buildings, cars, a post office, a service station, and a gym were damaged.

Stepan Zimin, detained in Moscow for a tattoo reading "Russian warship, go f**k yourself," has been sentenced to 7 days in jail. ◾️ (t.me/liveukraine_media)Stepan Zimin was previously a defendant in the 2012 Bolotnaya Square protests case in Moscow. These protests, also known as the Bolotnoye affair, occurred on May 6, 2012, in conjunction with Vladimir Putin's inauguration.

Let's return to politics for a moment. The first polls since the debate have come out, and unsurprisingly, Trump's lead over Biden has increased.

Trump Expands Lead Over Biden as Age Worries Grow, WSJ Poll Finds The former president is now ahead by 6 points, with 80% saying the incumbent is too old to run

The silver lining here is that it will increase pressure on the Democrats to find some way to replace him on the ticket.

What do you make of statements from the White House that he intends to remain on the ticket?

I think those statements are true but may not be true indefinitely.

This is an opinion piece, but it seems largely on target to me.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-cant-spin-his-way-out-of-this-age-decline-presidential-election-9df813d8?st=66vni87yg88k8wf&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

@UptonSinnclare

About meat waves, coincidentally:

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c80xjne8ryxo

Sensible interview with Sikorski: podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/foreign-policy-live/id1034003458?i=1000661018251

In about the only positive news going on at the moment, happy get the Tories out day!!

Yes, happy get the tories out day! I'm off to vote in an

Oops, hour or so

Oh and happy Independence Day @MissConductUS! I really hope it’s not the last one that America has as a true democracy ❤️ 🤍 💙

@MissConductUS Happy 4th of July!

Wishing freedom for Ukraine too.

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-3-2024

Key Takeaways:

1. Ukraine is addressing its manpower challenges and is forming several new brigades, but delayed and insufficient Western weapons deliveries will likely prevent Ukraine from equipping all these new brigades. Timely and appropriate Western security assistance continues to be crucial determinant of when and at what scale Ukrainian forces can contest the battlefield initiative and conduct operationally significant counteroffensive operations in the future.
2. Russian President Vladimir Putin is leveraging existing Eurasian-focused and Russian-led international organizations as the cornerstone for his new proposed alternative "Eurasian security architecture."
3. Ukraine conducted a naval drone strike against Russian naval infrastructure in Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Krai on the night of July 3 and reportedly damaged energy infrastructure during an aerial drone strike on Belgorod Oblast on the night of July 1.
4. Unspecified People's Republic of China (PRC) and Russian companies are reportedly working together to develop a drone similar to the Iranian-designed Shahed loitering munition for Russia to use in Ukraine.
5. Russian forces recently advanced within easternmost Chasiv Yar, in the Toretsk direction, and near Avdiivka, and Ukrainian forces recently advanced within Vovchansk, near Kreminna, and southeast of Chasiv Yar.
6. The Kremlin continues efforts to position Russian veterans who have fought in Ukraine in official roles in Russian domestic politics.

Happy Independence Day, @MissConductUS !