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Thread 46 Sunak - don't rain on our parade

990 replies

DuncinToffee · 25/05/2024 08:28

He called it, countdown to 4th July

Previous thread
www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/5079131-thread-45-sunak-remove-one-letter-and-tell-his-future?page=40&reply=135513708

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103
RafaistheKingofClay · 28/05/2024 20:32

LMAO they’ve changed it again. Presumably after realising the current 18 year olds were only 14 in 2020 and not furloughed and that young people don’t owe the nation for being locked down the Telegraph think they’ve nailed it this time.

Thread 46 Sunak - don't rain on our parade
RafaistheKingofClay · 28/05/2024 20:33

I’m not sure what debt they are supposed to owe other than huge tuition fees but obviously they owe us all.

Thingscanonlygetsunk · 28/05/2024 20:34

RafaistheKingofClay · 28/05/2024 20:32

LMAO they’ve changed it again. Presumably after realising the current 18 year olds were only 14 in 2020 and not furloughed and that young people don’t owe the nation for being locked down the Telegraph think they’ve nailed it this time.

Edited

I take it they mean that 18 year olds owe the nation because of the wonderful opportunity of being educated they have been given for free.

Does that mean that those whose parents paid for their education don't have to do National Service?

If one did not like school and was a school refuser does that mean one also doesn't owe the nation?

Saucery · 28/05/2024 20:37
Frustrated Maya Erskine GIF by HULU

A teenager says…

RafaistheKingofClay · 28/05/2024 20:44

Can’t believe they are not more grateful that they can’t continue education without racking up huge levels of debt, can’t get on the housing ladder, can’t afford to rent either and have had their freedom of movement restricted so they can’t even leave the country.

And yes, I have just been onto the DT website and it has been changed again. You’d think there’d be a point where they’d just give up and decide the article is just bollocks.

Thingscanonlygetsunk · 28/05/2024 20:46

RafaistheKingofClay · 28/05/2024 20:44

Can’t believe they are not more grateful that they can’t continue education without racking up huge levels of debt, can’t get on the housing ladder, can’t afford to rent either and have had their freedom of movement restricted so they can’t even leave the country.

And yes, I have just been onto the DT website and it has been changed again. You’d think there’d be a point where they’d just give up and decide the article is just bollocks.

If the DT didn't print bollox, would they have much left?

RafaistheKingofClay · 28/05/2024 20:47

Fair point.

Evenstar · 28/05/2024 21:18

Port Vale probably regretting letting these two in

Thread 46 Sunak - don't rain on our parade
Eve · 28/05/2024 21:29

I see Rachel Johnson has been suggesting they use National Service to get the young picking fruit !

I’ll not say what I want to call that woman!

HannibalHeyes · 28/05/2024 21:35

Eve · 28/05/2024 21:29

I see Rachel Johnson has been suggesting they use National Service to get the young picking fruit !

I’ll not say what I want to call that woman!

Well, that will terrify the Russians!

Monty Python - Self-Defense Against Fruit

from Monty Python's Flying Circus Season 1 - Episode 04 - Owl Stretching TimeRecorded 21-09-69, Aired 26-10-69I'm slowly uploading the entire Flying Circus s...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piWCBOsJr-w

Igotjelly · 28/05/2024 21:38

I would have paid good money to see Sunak’s face when found out the police were taking no further action against Angela Raynor.

Eve · 28/05/2024 21:45

Who wants to go discuss their menopause symptoms with Ian Duncan Smith ?? Form an orderly queue!

https://www.iainduncansmith.org.uk/menopause-awareness-event

Menopause Awareness Event

https://www.iainduncansmith.org.uk/menopause-awareness-event

MrTiddlesTheCat · 28/05/2024 21:47

Eve · 28/05/2024 21:29

I see Rachel Johnson has been suggesting they use National Service to get the young picking fruit !

I’ll not say what I want to call that woman!

That's not national service, it's indentured servitude and is illegal under Article 4 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.

IClaudine · 28/05/2024 21:48

Some one on another thread was worried about this poll showing Labour's lead to be 12 points. But the polling company is run by a couple of ex Tory party workers...

https://x.com/JLPartnersPolls/status/1795500304571490715

IClaudine · 28/05/2024 21:49

For those not on Twitter

Thread 46 Sunak - don't rain on our parade
Notonthestairs · 28/05/2024 21:50

Epic thread from Samuel West

x.com/exitthelemming/status/1795425589647856102?s=46&t=Uw4lJNwxFZFnX0Xs3doHYg

Fifteen years. Five prime ministers, seven chancellors, eight foreign secretaries, twelve culture secretaries and sixteen housing ministers.

A thread, for #RantyTuesday.

One third of all children in poverty. Triple the NHS waiting list (6.4m). Energy bills up a quarter in the last two years. Food prices up a fifth. Huge mortgage increases. Four million hours of sewage poured into our rivers and seas in 2023, more than twice as much as in 2022

Number of food banks up 7000% since 2010. More food banks than branches of McDonalds in the UK, and now 4250 food banks operating in British schools

230 000 deaths from COVID; £29 billion on Test and Trace. £10 billion on unused PPE; £4 billion on fraudulent COVID loans. People dying alone; meanwhile, 126 Partygate fines from 16 parties at 10 Downing Street, among “the worst governing ever seen.”

Two years of talk about “levelling up” leading to Bradford and Hull, among the most deprived councils in the country, being cut by 28.5% and 27.9% respectively, Sheffield by 27.2% and Doncaster 25.8%. Councils in Surrey and Oxfordshire got the smallest cuts

A 45-day Prime Ministerial reign by Liz Truss and a mini-budget from Kwasi Kwarteng that cost the country £30bn, enough for an inflation-equalling pay rise for every public sector worker in the country. Kwarteng said they “got carried away.”

Immigrants, the working poor, the hungry, the unemployed, the sick, the mentally ill and the disabled demonised for their circumstances. Half a billion pounds on the Rwanda scheme, a performatively cruel and unworkable policy that criminalises the trafficked, not the traffickers

Taking no responsibility. Blaming teachers, nurses, railway workers, lawyers, lifeboat volunteers, the BBC, care home staff, local government, the civil service, the C of E, footballers, refuse collectors, universities and people who use food banks. So that’s everybody, then

Accepting £8.4 million from fossil fuel interests and climate change deniers since the last election. In the face of climate disaster, green policies delayed or abandoned. Rowing back on Net Zero. F.o.I. requests about the state of the environment buried by the Environment Agency

A pledge for everyone in UK to live fifteen minutes from a green space quietly shelved. Plans to make the target for access to green space legally binding scrapped. Sunak not attending COP 27.

The dismantling of democracy. “Limited” law-breaking; proroguing Parliament; junking parliamentary standards; the Internal Market Act; the Elections Act; endangering the right to protest while claiming the Public Order Act only targets “Guardian-reading, tofu-eating wokerati.”

The Home Office deliberately removing legal protection for Windrush immigrants in 2014. 164 people wrongly detained or deported in the ensuing scandal. 30 Windrush Report recommendations: nine not delivered; three cancelled by Suella Braverman

Very British scandals: Post Office; Grenfell; Windrush; Contaminated Blood; the Carers’ allowance. A cover-up culture: defend; deny; deceive.

A tax gap 100x bigger than that of benefit fraud. Huge systematic corporate tax avoidance by the government's friends and backers. FTSE bosses earning on average 120 times the average employee (people think the ideal ratio should be 7:1). 24 more new UK billionaires in 2021 alone

Local Government revenue funding cut by 48% since 2010. Culture funding down 43%. Our world-class arts organisations clinging to their reputation, begging a government who believes “music, dance, drama and performing arts, art and design …are not among our strategic priorities.”

A third of England’s libraries closed since 2010. A-level and GCSE arts entries down by 29% and 47% respectively. Humanities degrees defunded because they don’t produce “graduate outcomes in areas of economic importance.”

Cheerleading the self-inflicted wound of Brexit: border checks that cost £4.7bn. GDP down 4%. Food £250 a year more expensive. A trade border in Ireland which threatens the Good Friday agreement. An ‘oven-ready deal’ that turned out inedible

Systematic underfunding of the Health Service by people who never use it. Backdoor privatisation by stealth. Clapping for the NHS and refusing nurses a pay rise over 1%. Driving down public sector pay so healthcare becomes dependent on immigration, then demonising the immigrants

The average person in the UK £10 200 poorer. The worst fall in real wages in the G7. 2.2m women in low-paid jobs. UK workers earning £75 a month less in real terms than in 2008, though we work Europe’s third longest hours. Retirement age raised to 68 (women’s up from 60)

Voting down free school meals. Twice. Closing 500 Sure Start centres. Some of the least happy children in the developed world, and some of the worst child poverty. In 2014, there were no British cities where more than a third of children lived in poverty. By 2021, there were six

Record inequality in education. 70% of state schools’ funding cut. State school teachers run into the ground by people whose children don’t go to state schools. Child trust funds scrapped. Childcare costs up 30% in the last ten years - far higher than most European countries

Compulsory National Service for 18-year-olds. No money to feed hungry children or to remove the two-child benefit cap. But always money for a new nuclear arms race.

The highest rail prices in Europe; the second worst fuel poverty; the third highest housing costs; the fourth poorest elderly

Distracting from every failure of government with a culture war which sees challenging racism and inequality, making the curriculum factual or representative of historical truth and a changing Britain derided as “woke".

The wholesale dismantling of the Welfare State. Wealthy people running a wealthy country, choosing to create scarcity. Austerity sold to us as a financial necessity. Instead, every inequality increased; every benefit cut

The worst regional inequality in Western Europe and perhaps unsurprisingly, the lowest level of trust in politicians

We’ve had fifteen years of this shit. We need these people out, we need them out now, and we need to keep them out for a very long time.

I feel like there is something for everyone on that list.

tobee · 28/05/2024 21:50

RafaistheKingofClay · 28/05/2024 20:32

LMAO they’ve changed it again. Presumably after realising the current 18 year olds were only 14 in 2020 and not furloughed and that young people don’t owe the nation for being locked down the Telegraph think they’ve nailed it this time.

Edited

I'm sorry but absolute cunts at The Telegraph.

cakeorwine · 28/05/2024 21:53

IClaudine · 28/05/2024 21:48

Some one on another thread was worried about this poll showing Labour's lead to be 12 points. But the polling company is run by a couple of ex Tory party workers...

https://x.com/JLPartnersPolls/status/1795500304571490715

Edited

You have to look at their "interesting" survey approach - modelled voting intention

"Don’t Knows
Don’t knows are imputed “within survey” meaning that each survey has its own bespoke model
This allows us to leverage policy based questions within each survey which can be a better indicator than demographics and previous vote
The basic principle is to build a random forest model which models vote intention for those who have specified a party or would not vote.
The model takes into account individuals age, gender, qualifications, socio-economic group, tenure and previous vote, as well as their responses to survey questions and then model their voting intention.
This implicitly assumes that those who say they don’t know can be imputed from their policy stance as well as demographics factors
“In survey” methods are used at the moment as we do not have a homogeneous set of policy questions (e.g. Is Sunak doing a good job as PM)
As we move to a set of questions we ask consistently we can build a model which runs over multiple surveys
However, we will use a sliding window of data to run such models as it is assumed that “don’t know” voting habits will be time-dependent and we want to capture this as the election progresses.
This is something we can track on a weekly basis and show how those who reply “don’t know” are moving.
Ultimately, we would hope to have a sliding window of 4 weeks worth of data to build the don’t know model
Note that the model can amplify panel based effects, e.g. it imputes Yonder as more Labour-y, so using a variety of panels would be best in order to mitigate any amplification of biases.

Turnout
This model does not use policy questions - we need to run the census data through it so we are limited on what factors we can control for
This model begins by taking self-reported propensity to vote and imposes a hard cut-off at 9 such that only those scoring 9 or 10 are classed as “voters” - 0 representing those scoring 8 or below and 1 for those scoring 9 or 10
A random forest classifier is then built using this 0/1 variable as the value we try to predict
This model controls for a variety of constituency level effects as well as age, gender, qualifications, socio-economic group, tenure and previous vote.
We do not include vote intention as an indicator as this will introduce increased computational complexity in further calculations and there is not much evidence that it improves the model.
The model returns a predicted class for each person (0 or 1) as well as the probability of being in a given class. The turnout figure we use is the probability of the model predicting 1. For example, we may predict a young degree educated woman living in London who rents, is in SEG AB and voted Labour previously is 0. But the probability of 0 is 0.57 - hence the turnout for this group of people would be estimated at 43%.
This model appears to give a reasonable estimate of turnout as a % of the total voting population - c. 63%.
The model also predicts that Labour voters are less likely to vote and Conservatives are more likely to vote.

Polling — JLP (jlpartners.co.uk)

Polling — JLP

https://jlpartners.co.uk/polling-results

cakeorwine · 28/05/2024 22:12

They model the "Don't knows". They look at likelihood to vote, etc.

They also ask a whole load of random questions - the data tables are fascinating.

Evenstar · 28/05/2024 22:18

@Eve each idea they come up with is more ridiculous. Personally I wouldn’t discuss my menopause with a man that wasn’t DH or a HCP. Ian Duncan Smith not a chance 😳

HannibalHeyes · 28/05/2024 22:28

I'm pretty sure that Ian Duncan Smith could be responsible for an awful lot of vaginal dryness...

TooBigForMyBoots · 28/05/2024 22:30

tobee · 28/05/2024 21:50

I'm sorry but absolute cunts at The Telegraph.

And in the Tory Party. They're not interested in our country's future. They see our young people as nothing more than fodder to fight their wars and empty their bedpans.

DuncinToffee · 28/05/2024 22:40

They really don't want educated young people

https://x.com/HugoGye/status/1795561181647642762

NEW

Latest Conservative policy push - they will ban 'low quality' degrees and use the funding to pay for more apprenticeships instead

Office for Students would decide which degrees are affected, Tories estimate it will be around 1 in 8

OP posts: