Ukraine Invasion: Part 49

[MagicFox]

Welcome to our 49th thread with the usual thanks to all regular contributors and lurkers 🇺🇦

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I see Medvedev is at it again! From Sky News live feed:

Moscow warns it could go to war with NATO over US move - as Putin ally says Russia 'not bluffing' over nuclear threats A top Russian official has said Ukraine striking with US weapons inside of Russia could mean war with NATO - and warned Moscow's nuclear threats are not a bluff.

Responding to Joe Biden partially lifting restrictions on how Ukraine can use military supplies yesterday (see 7.33 post), Dmitry Medvedev issued a series of warnings to the West.

The senior Kremlin figure said "no one can rule out" when tensions with the West will escalate to its "last stage" - and that Moscow will consider any long-range weapons used by Ukraine to strike inside Russia as being controlled by NATO.
"This is no military assistance, this is participation in a war against us," he said.

"And such actions could well become a casus belli [an act that provokes a war]."
He said it would be a "fatal mistake" on the part of the West to think that Russia was not ready to use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine - and spoke of the potential to strike unnamed hostile countries with strategic nuclear weapons.
"This is, alas, neither intimidation nor bluffing," said Mr Medvedev.

"The current military conflict with the West is developing according to the worst possible scenario. There is a constant escalation when it comes to the firepower of NATO weapons being used. Therefore, nobody today can rule out the conflict's transition to its final stage."

Here's a good "explainer" article from the WSJ about the Trump convictions and their political implications.

Can Donald Trump Still Run for President? The Hush-Money Verdict Explained - First conviction of a former president raises a series of novel issues

Oh its never a bluff, until someone calls it.

What the fuck?

Medvedev actually thinks it's OK for Russia to attack and destroy a neighbouring country with impunity, but that any retaliation from that country is unacceptable.

How thick do you have to be to believe that?
Bloody hell, toddlers learn that this behaviour is not ok, but these fully grown adult men are too stupid to understand that shit behaviour has consequences.

Forget appeasement, that won't solve anything with those pathetic pice of shit excuses for a man. I hope Ukraine makes good work of it's weaponry.

@L1ttledrummergirl you absolutely nailed it. The sheer hypocrisy is staggering. It’s ok for the Kremlin to staff it’s military from other countries, and use weaponry and components from NK, Iran and God knows where else, but when Ukraine wants to do the same it’s a hard no. It’s bullshit.

Getting a computer upgrade and it's taking a bit of sorting. Might not be able to the roundup done today, but if it goes well then it'll be okay for later this afternoon.

So true - and surely at some point we have to stop cowering and say 'Enough'. Even if the Kremlin are mad enough to carry through with their sabre rattling I feel China would have something to say about Russia's use of Nuclear Weapons, tactical or otherwise, in the war they started and are pursuing with disregard to the consequences.

@DesdamonasHandkerchief not to mention India and several other big players. There are many, many countries with skin in the game here and Putin would do well to remember that.

It seems to me that, given Russia is having a hard time holding their own against Ukraine, they would need to be be bit bloody daft to start a fight against tens of other countries all at the same time and at the same time as their stalemate already in progress.

On the other hand Putin is clearly unbalanced mentally, so he might be insane enough. I suspect though that his immediate minions do not want to be nuked, and at the point they thought he was far enough off the rails to cause that to happen, they'd take definitive action to prevent him, of the sort which ends up with the word "oops" as the body hits the ground.

BREAKING: Berlin says Ukraine may deploy German weapons to strike targets inside Russia.

I always say this but I really don’t think Putin is unhinged or crazy. He took what he thought was a calculated risk based on previous experience (Chechnya, Georgie, Ukraine 1st time) that the West wouldn’t respond and he got it wrong or was badly advised.

I don’t believe Putin is crazy either. There are obviously some deeply concerning personality traits, but I don’t think he is diagnosable as mentally unwell.

In which case he is not mad enough to risk a nuclear war, is he. As I suggested in my first paragraph, a sane person has no benefit to attacking NATO when his army is being bogged down by Ukraine, which when he invaded it was hardly a military super-power, and was not a member of any Western bloc.

Crazy like a fox can tip over into something more - it's not really a matter so much of madness in a way, as losing a sense of proportion - just because your country goes down, doesn't mean you should destroy everything to someone with a sense of proportion, but people surrounded by yes-men can become egotistical and lose touch with reality (and certainly morality).

There have been enough tyrants who began to confuse their ego with their country and when either was damaged, made extremely destructive decisions no matter the cost to anyone else.

I don't think the use of nuclear weopons is impossible. But I also think that cowering in the face of them is not going to do anything but make the likelihood of war greater, because the more reasonable leaders who refuse to stand up to a nuclear power for fear of what will happen will, at some point, be replaced by less reasonable people.

If NK and Iran both get nuclear weopons and one falls out with the other - yeah, I could see them being used. If Russia learns that waving their nuclear willies means we all swoon unconscious, they'll do it more - and that makes it more likely, in the end, to happen.

Personally I think that we have to acknowledge it might happen, and stand up to Russia (or any other foul leadership) and say No, we will not crumble.

Duckling 👏👏👏👏 count me in!

These previous incursions were very limited in nature, even the Crimea could arguably be said to be Russian and he met with very little opposition.

Feb 2022 was an all out invasion, the aim to remove a country from the map & with huge numbers of civilian casualties.

I think Putin is a madman, not going around like someone in a straight jacket but more like Hitler eventually became, i'm sure there are medical terms for his behaviour.

Threats of nuclear weapons have to be taken seriously but also, Russia needs to know the West will not bow down before him either.

Biden i think is doing a great job.

God help us all if the US vote in 4 years of Trump, his conviction may well make this more likely :(

I think the concerns re nato involvement are predicated on two things:

1. Accidental escalation

1. Post-war: Russia becomes an entirely militarised state with all investment going into the forces. It functions as a wrecking ball in tandem with China. NATO therefore needs to a) have credible deterrence to stop Russia pushing and b) be able to win if it happens.

That's my understanding anyway!

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ China won't attend Ukraine's global peace summit, https://kyivindependent.com/china-will-not-attend-ukraines-global-peace-summit-reuters-reports/ Reuters reports, citing sources.

⚡️ China denies supplying Russia with weapons https://kyivindependent.com/china-denies-supplying-russia-with-weapons-for-use-in-ukraine/ for use in Ukraine, insisting it does not provide either side with weapons and has an "impartial position" on the war, a Chinese spokesperson said on May 31.

⚡️Russia blackmailing some leaders ahead of Ukraine's peace summit, Zelensky says. kyivindependent.com/zelensky-russia-blackmailing-some-leaders-ahead-of-ukraines-peace-summit/
"At this moment, we already have about 100 states and international organizations that will participate in the summit, but Russia is blackmailing some leaders and trying to block the participation of some countries," the president said.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will ask NATO allies to provide a minimum of 40 billion euros ($43.3 billion) in annual military funding for Ukraine, a source within NATO told Reuters on May 30. https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-stoltenberg-seeks-40-billion-euros-in-annual-nato-military-aid-for-ukraine-source-says/

⚡️Deputy PM: NATO summit to express position on roadmap, irreversibility of Ukraine's membership. https://kyivindependent.com/deputy-pm-washington-summit-decisions-to-include-position-on-irreversibility-of-ukraines-membership-allies-say/

⚡️Ukraine hits Russian ferry crossing with ATACMS in Crimea https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-hits-russian-ferry-crossing-with-atacms-in-crimea-general-staff-says/ General Staff says.
Moscow "actively used" the ferry crossing to supply Russian troops in the occupied peninsula and defended it with Russian Pantsir, Tor, and Triumph air defense systems.

Ukrainian Magura 5V naval drones damaged 2 and destroyed 2 more Russian patrol boats in Crimea overnight, Ukraine's military intelligence said. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-hit-2-more-patrol-boats-in-occupied-crimea-overnight-military-intelligence-says/

⚡️ WP: US concerned about Ukrainian strikes on early-warning radars on Russian soil, official says. https://kyivindependent.com/wsj-washington-concerns-about-ukrainian-strikes-on-nuclear-radars-on-russian-soil/

⚡️ Ukraine may receive up to 100,000 shells https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-may-receive-up-to-100-000-shells-next-month-under-prague-led-initiative-czech-official-says/ next month under Prague-led initiative, Czech official says.

Kyiv is likely to receive the first tranche of frozen Russian assets revenue from the European Union this summer, EU Sanctions Envoy David O'Sullivan said in an interview with RBC Ukraine published on May 31. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-to-receive-first-tranche-of-frozen-russian-assets-in-summer-2024-eu-sanctions-envoy-says/

⚡️Politico: EU wants to punish https://kyivindependent.com/politico-eu-wants-to-punish-hungary-for-its-obstructionism-by-limiting-its-roles-in-european-commission/* Hungary for its obstructionism by limiting its roles in European Commission*, Politico reported on May 30, citing sources.

⚡️German defense minister arrives in Odesa, announces $542 million aid package https://kyivindependent.com/german-defense-minister-arrives-in-odesa-announces-542-million-aid-package-for-ukraine/ for Ukraine, incl ammunition for Iris-T air defense systems and shorter-range SLS missiles, as well as reconnaissance drones, 1 million rounds of small arms ammunition, Leopard 1 battle tanks, and Marder armored vehicles.

⚡️Berlin says Ukraine can strike military targets https://kyivindependent.com/germany-says-ukraine-can-strike-military-targets-inside-russia/ inside Russia with German arms.

The U.S. will soon finalize a bilateral security agreement with Ukraine, which may be aimed at helping mend the current "tense" relations between the two countries, the Financial Times (FT) reported on May 30, citing sources. https://kyivindependent.com/ft-us-close-to-signing-bilateral-security-agreement-with-ukraine-as-relations-fray/

Politico: Biden quietly allows Ukraine to strike Russia with US arms https://kyivindependent.com/politico-biden-quietly-allows-ukraine-to-strike-inside-russia-with-u-s-weapons-but-solely-near-kharkiv/ but 'solely near Kharkiv.'

⚡️ Media: Zelensky to visit Saudi Arabia https://kyivindependent.com/media-zelensky-to-visit-saudi-arabia-ahead-of-global-peace-summit/ to mobilize support for peace summit.

⚡️Ukraine can use our F-16s to strike https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-can-use-f-16s-to-strike-russian-territory-danish-foreign-minister-says/ Russian territory, Danish foreign minister says.

⚡️Zelensky to attend security conference in Singapore https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-zelensky-expected-to-attend-security-conference-in-singapore/ Reuters reports, citing sources.

⚡️ Ukraine, Sweden sign bilateral security agreement. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-and-sweden-sign-bilateral-security-agreement/

⚡️Ukraine, Iceland sign long-term security agreement. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-iceland-sign-long-term-security-agreement/

⚡️ Ukraine, Norway https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-norway-sign-long-term-security-agreement-2/ sign long-term security agreement.

⚡️Lithuania joins air defense coalition https://kyivindependent.com/lithuania-joins-air-defense-coalition-to-send-radars-to-ukraine/ to send radars to Ukraine.

A poll released on May 30 by the Levada Center, a Russian independent polling organization, found that 71% of respondents believed Russia is "going in the right direction," and another 87% said they supported Putin. https://kyivindependent.com/poll-71-of-russians-think-country-is-on-right-path-87-approve-of-putin/

⚡️World Bank says 1.8 million more Ukrainians living in poverty since 2020. https://kyivindependent.com/world-bank-says-1-8-million-more-ukrainians-living-in-poverty-since-2020/

Foreigners will have to pass two exams — on Ukraine's Constitution and Ukraine's history — to obtain Ukrainian citizenship, the government announced on May 30. https://kyivindependent.com/government-introduces-2-exams-for-obtaining-ukrainian-citizenship/

⚡️Donald Trump found guilty https://kyivindependent.com/donald-trump-found-guilty-on-all-34-counts-in-hush-money-trial/ on all 34 counts in hush money trial.

⚡️Court sets bail https://kyivindependent.com/court-sets-bail-for-former-head-of-odesa-oblast-enlistment-office-at-almost-3-5-million/ for former head of Odesa Oblast enlistment office at almost $3.5 million. Borysov has been under investigation for corruption since July 2023 and is accused of illegally enriching himself with more than Hr 142 million ($3.5 million) through his official position.

⚡️Updated: Russian missile attacks on Kharkiv kill 6, injure 25.

⚡️Oil depot fire, casualties reported in Russia's Krasnodar Krai following drone strike. Local authorities claim that their are multiple casualties among the employees of the oil depot as a result of the strike. The fuel is used to supply gas to Russian forces in parts of occupied Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, according to Crimean Wind.
⚡️ Update: SBU, military conducted several-days-long operation to destroy logistics of Russian forces in Crimea https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-strikes-ferry-crossing-oil-depot-in-russias-krasnodar-krai-general-staff-says/ sources say. "According to preliminary information, a comprehensive strike targeted substations and power supply grid, as well as oil product supplies in Russia's Krasnodar Krai," the source noted.

An overnight missile attack on occupied Luhansk Oblast has damaged a gas pipeline in Pervomaisk, occupation authorities reported on May 30.

⚡️ 75 Ukrainian prisoners brought back https://kyivindependent.com/75-ukrainian-prisoners-brought-back-home-from-russian-captivity/ from Russian captivity. This includes service personnel of the Armed Forces and the National Guard, border guards, and four civilians.
⚡️Update: Defenders of Snake Island, Chornobyl, Mariupol freed in latest prisoner exchange. https://kyivindependent.com/75-ukrainian-prisoners-brought-back-home-from-russian-captivity/ https://t.me/KyivIndependent_official/33960 [Moving]

⚡️ Ukraine brings back 212 bodies https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-returns-212-bodies-of-fallen-soldiers/ of fallen soldiers.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson
⚡️ WAR IN

• MAY 31, 2024

■ Engagements >average; 8th highest casualties ■ Good drone & missile interception ■ Strike ratio improves yet again due to increased 🇺🇦 strikes ■ Janovsky: 58 🇷🇺 19 🇺🇦 added; 30-day ratio at 2.5x ■ Poternet: 279 🇷🇺 KIA added

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Russian occupiers are preparing to launch a railroad between Mariupol and Donetsk.
The line has a length of up to 80 kilometers, and its launch allows the Russians to establish a railroad connection bypassing the “Kerch bridge” to provide logistics for the occupation army in southern Ukraine.
According to Frontelligence Insight, the invaders have already established a railroad between Volnovakha and the seaport of Mariupol in a “test mode.” The branch line between Mariupol and the territory of Russia could be fully operational by the summer of 2024.

The Pentagon gave Ukraine precise instructions on what strikes the armed forces of Ukraine can inflict on the territory of Russia, — New York Times.
It is reported that the instructions were given to Kyiv by the commander of NATO in Europe, Christopher Cavoli.

Macron intends to create a European coalition of military instructors in Ukraine, — Le Monde, citing its own sources.
According to the publication, several hundred specialists from several countries may be involved to train sappers or even help form a new motorized infantry brigade.

The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine has agreed on the terms of an agreement between Ukraine and the United States to attract financial assistance to the Ukrainian budget as part of a support package of over $60 billion, - European Pravda with reference to the text of the agreement.
According to the document, the US economic assistance will exceed $9.4 billion and will be allocated under several programs:
Up to $7.849 billion will be allocated from the Economic Support Funds (ESF), which will be directed to the state budget of Ukraine;
Up to $50 million will be allocated to prevent and address food insecurity (the list of countries that will receive these funds will be determined later).
Under the agreement, the US funds will be provided on an interest-free loan basis.The Ukrainian government undertakes to repay the loan on time.
The loan balance will be repaid in a lump sum in dollars 40 years after September 30, 2025 (i.e. September 30, 2065).

Sweden will provide an additional €42 million to the Energy Support Fund of Ukraine. Another nearly €12.7 million will be allocated to energy support through the UN Development Program in Ukraine, according to the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine.

Ukraine has signed a security agreement with Iceland, under which Iceland will allocate at least 4 billion Icelandic krona (nearly $30 million) annually from 2024 to 2028. This support will persist throughout the agreement's duration. A unique aspect of this agreement is Iceland's commitment to continue transporting military cargo and equipment from NATO allies to Ukraine using chartered cargo planes. Furthermore, Iceland will place special emphasis on supporting and equipping Ukrainian women in the Armed Forces.

At a meeting, the Parliament of Moldova adopted a declaration condemning Russia's genocidal policy towards Ukraine, particularly the forced relocation and deportation of Ukrainian children in the occupied territories.

Gazprom shares have reached their lowest level since October 2017, with the price per share dropping to 125.9 rubles, according to Moscow Exchange data.
This decline marks the fourth consecutive day of losses, following the Russian government's recommendation for the state gas monopoly not to pay dividends to shareholders.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen on the side of the Ukraine-Northern Europe Summit in Stockholm.

Serebriansk forestry. Once it was a green big forest…

The General Staff of the Armed Forces reported that the attacks on the oil terminal near the port of Kavkaz and the ferry crossing were carried out with Neptune missiles.

On the night of May 29-30, drones of the Security Service of Ukraine hit the Nebo-SVU long-range radar detection complex in temporarily occupied Crimea worth about $100 million, Ukrainian Pravda interlocutors in the special service reported.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Three Reuters sources say https://www.reuters.com/world/china-will-not-join-swiss-peace-conference-ukraine-sources-say-2024-05-31/ that Beijing rejected the invitation [to the Peace Conference] because its conditions were not taken into account. In particular, China wanted to see representatives of Russia at the meeting.

In the morning, the drones were flying around Kazan, the capital of Tatarstan, a thousand kilometers from Ukraine
One drone was headed to the Russian chemical company Kazanorgsintez, local media reported.

⚡️⚡️The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported a Neptune missile attack on the oil terminal of the Kavkaz port (the second largest Russian port in the Black Sea) and a ferry crossing in the Krasnodar Territory. It was a strike on the enemy's military logistics.
The General Staff also confirms a strike on another oil terminal in the Krasnodar Territory. It is likely to be an oil depot near the city of Temryuk, where three railroad tanks with fuel oil burned down. Local authorities reported a drone attack.

Crimean ferry after meeting with ATACMS

One of the buildings of Putin's residence in Altay has burned down almost completely, Russian media report.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-30-2024

Key Takeaways:

• US President Joe Biden reportedly approved a policy change that will permit Ukraine to use US-provided weapons, including GMLRS rockets — but not longer-range ATACMS missiles — to strike within Russian territory near the border with Kharkiv Oblast.
• Ukraine's European allies continue to announce their support for allowing Ukraine to use Western-provided weapons to strike military targets in Russia.
• Senior Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces are transferring forces to northern Kharkiv Oblast from other sectors of the frontline, indicating that the Russian military continues to prioritize efforts to draw and fix Ukrainian forces in northern Kharkiv Oblast.
• French officials reportedly may soon announce that France is sending military trainers to Ukraine.
• Western countries continue efforts to increase artillery production and procurement for Ukraine.
• NATO member states reportedly lack sufficient air defense capabilities to protect members of the Alliance in Central and Eastern Europe in the event of a full-scale attack.
• The Russian government approved a package of amendments to the Russian tax code on May 30 that will introduce a progressive income tax scale starting in 2025, marginally placing some of the financial burdens of Russia's long-war effort in Ukraine onto Russia's wealthy elite.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin continued efforts to address Russia’s ongoing demographic crisis as part of the “Year of the Family” 2024 domestic policy initiative.
• Russian peacekeepers in Moldova's Russian-backed breakaway republic of Transnistria are reportedly conducting a month-long unauthorized inspection of their armored vehicles and may conduct further provocations in the coming months.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk and Russian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City and in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast.
• Russia formed a new unnamed airborne (VDV) regiment based in occupied Crimea, which currently operates in the Zaporizhia direction.