Ukraine Invasion: Part 49

[MagicFox]

Welcome to our 49th thread with the usual thanks to all regular contributors and lurkers 🇺🇦

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I guess it depends on the appetite for the war, since the US and NATO generally didn't want to get dragged into this conflict themselves, just enable Ukraine to actually defend itself with the combined might of NATO's backing.

I would imagine, though, if we didn't have nukes and got to this point, Europe would not have disarmed like it did in the last 30 years or so during the peace dividend. We may have still had a large contingent of conventional forces to stop people getting any ideas, and this may or may not have maintained an imperialist ambition in some nations given the entire deterrence game would be not too different to what it was pre-1945. Just obviously with the US coming out as the top dog post-war.

I was just reading that Biden has okay'd the use of US long range weaponry on Russian soil. Or at least partially taking on Blinken's suggestion. I'm not sure what that really means, though I'd imagine it means more ATACMS in the Kharkiv region being used against rear echelon forces of the Russian army, or maybe even air bases etc. further back.

In a related story out today too, the Pentagon and White House have expressed concern about the use of long range drones on Russian early warning radar complexes like the attack I mentioned a couple days ago. I forgot to opine, and it seems the US has essentially said what I would have; that is, it's not a great idea. It doesn't help the war effort where it's needed, and you do not want to blind, even partially, a nuclear power in that way. I don't know who thought it was a good idea when there are far better targets that don't risk nuclear war.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-29-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Advisor to the Head of the Ukrainian President's Office Mykhaylo Podolyak stated that US-provided military aid has started arriving on the frontline but that it will take "weeks" for the gradual increase in US-provided military aid to reach "critical volumes.
• Sweden announced its 16th and largest military aid package to Ukraine, worth 13.3 billion kronor (about $1.25 billion), on May 29.
• Western officials are increasingly suggesting that they support Ukraine's right to use Western-provided weapons to strike military targets in Russia.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed Russian Presidential Aide Alexei Dyumin as Secretary of Russia's State Council on May 29.
• Russia blamed Ukraine for the recent several-month-long suspension of prisoner of war (POW) exchanges over the backdrop of reports of pervasive Russian abuses against Ukrainian POWs.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin continues his efforts to prepare the Russian population for a protracted war effort.
• Belarus suspended its participation in the Cold War-era Conventional Armed Forces (CFE) in Europe Treaty on May 28.
• Russian forces recently advanced north and northeast of Kharkiv City, near Kreminna, Chasiv Yar, and Avdiivka.
• Russia continues efforts to expand social benefits for Russian military personnel, veterans of the war in Ukraine, and their families.

Fuck me Trump guilty!

On all 34 counts. Might not make a huge difference to the election but truly historic moment.

This is very funny, I gotta say.

What is?

Trump being found guilty of all charges. I only wish I was a fly on the wall when it was read out. I bet it was incredible.

Oh my God.

Unbelievable.

What happens now?

Sentencing is on 11 July. Will it lead to jail time? No one can say. The RNC is on the 15th of that month so funny things can still happen in the not too distant future.

The reaction videos from the people outside the court are something else.

I am predicting a financial penalty, some form of house arrest or tag and community service.

I'd hate to have to pay $500 per charge. Might need to dip into my piggy bank.

Felonies are expensive.

Well today has ended on a better note than it started at least

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/30/opinions/biden-ukraine-russia-putin-nuclear-kinzinger-hodges/index.html

A good piece coauthored by Ben Hodges.

I think it notable that the countries most keen to call Putin's bluff are the ones which have the most to lose if he's not bluffing. Namely the Baltic states. Their confidence says a lot to me, while the country furthest from Russia appears too nervous to authorise Ukraine to strike within Russia's borders.

Wow! I've not been following the news at all lately as I'm studying all the time so completely missed this. Brilliant news!

It was ironically the Remain campaign that convinced me. Campaigners credited the EU (and EEC before it) for peace in Europe since 1945, a claim which disregarded the role of NATO forces in keeping the Russians at bay, and also ignored events such as the Yugoslav wars. The dishonesty of the claim rankled

Unbelievable, Yugoslavia wasn't even in the EU.
Of course countries with a very strong trading relationship, FOM and their own Parliament are more likely to talk than fight.... Nuclear deterrent? anyone seriously suggesting that these weapons stopped Spain attacking Portugal?
The EEC/EU plays a huge part in stopping conflict (either military or trade) between western european countries, just as Nuclear weapons have prevented Russian aggression... until they didn't and Russia got a lunatic into power.

They are there to deter Soviet/Russian aggression and have now failed, as we see in Ukraine and the threats to other ex soviet states.

There has also been support from some integrationists (Macron prominent among them) for a unified armed forces. That really does risk undermining NATO

...and when Trump wins in the USA, what then? he wont arm Ukraine and will almost certainly tear up article 5.

Europe will need its own version of NATO and now we are out, that European defence organisation will be far weaker than it needs to be.

The Biden administration has given Ukraine permission to use American-supplied weapons to hit targets inside Russia, but only in the Kharkiv area. This reportedly includes Russian aircraft in flight as well as ground targets.

It's an interesting incremental step. Your move, Vlad.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/30/biden-ukraine-weapons-strike-russia-00160731

@MissConductUS The papers are all saying that being convicted of a felony does not prevent Trump from either running or taking up the presidency (if elected - and nobody seems sure whether or not it will hinder his chance of getting elected). What happens though if he is given a jail term? Does the Vice-President take over for that period? Any idea?

Presumably he is going to appeal. Any idea of the time frames on that? What grounds?

Just trying to understand the practical implications.

@MissConductUS Do you think it will deter any potential running mates? Make others more likely?

This is excellent news

The constitution doesn't preclude him from running or serving. I think it will hurt him with people who aren't already firmly in one camp or the other, but not decisively. The vast majority of voters have already made up their minds.

The chances of him getting jail time for a non-violent crime as a first time offender are almost zero. I don't think anyone knows how it would be handled if he were in jail. There's simply no precedent.

I don't think anyone would be deterred. The job is seen as a stepping stone, a way of increasing their national profile.

Trump will pick whoever has compatible views and who would bring him votes in a swing state or from undecided voters. The convictions won't play into this that I can see.