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Ukraine Invasion: Part 49

991 replies

MagicFox · 09/05/2024 13:25

Welcome to our 49th thread with the usual thanks to all regular contributors and lurkers πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

OP posts:
Thread gallery
265
ShambalaAnna · 24/05/2024 23:45

MissConductUS · 24/05/2024 23:29

One thing they could do is provide rear area security, which would free up Ukrainian troops for duty in the conflict zone. Ukraine currently has thousands of troops on the border with Belarus to prevent another attack from there.

I agree with you about Biden, but his advisors will want to prevent a significant worsening of the Ukrainians' position if only to prevent it from becoming more of a campaign issue that highlights the results of his dithering.

That's a good point, actually. I have read reports that there is massive shortages of staff in various industries and civil services, so I imagine just maintaining the economy on an even keel is trickier as consequence. Still don't think anything will come from Belarus. Lukashenko is not stable enough to want to put his arse on the like for Putin in doing so and I don't recall there being many Russian units that way now.

I think the US has generally dropped the ball. The slow trickle of munitions, the constant underestimation of Russia's capacity to prosecute war, and the seemingly bananas way in which the West has gutted industry since the peace dividend of the '90s and yet two years into this, has only just decided to maybe up production rates.

And by then Trump can come in and shut it all down like that. What on Earth...

MissConductUS · 24/05/2024 23:59

ShambalaAnna · 24/05/2024 23:45

That's a good point, actually. I have read reports that there is massive shortages of staff in various industries and civil services, so I imagine just maintaining the economy on an even keel is trickier as consequence. Still don't think anything will come from Belarus. Lukashenko is not stable enough to want to put his arse on the like for Putin in doing so and I don't recall there being many Russian units that way now.

I think the US has generally dropped the ball. The slow trickle of munitions, the constant underestimation of Russia's capacity to prosecute war, and the seemingly bananas way in which the West has gutted industry since the peace dividend of the '90s and yet two years into this, has only just decided to maybe up production rates.

And by then Trump can come in and shut it all down like that. What on Earth...

I think that Lukashenko will do as he's told by Putin, and it wouldn't take long for Russia to reposition forces there. It would be a huge strategic mistake for Ukraine not to secure that area.

I agree that the US should have done more and faster, but we have been the largest supplier of military aid by a good margin, and they surely would have lost the war some time ago without US support. We've also maintained a stronger DIB than anyone else in NATO.

ShambalaAnna · 25/05/2024 00:10

MissConductUS · 24/05/2024 23:59

I think that Lukashenko will do as he's told by Putin, and it wouldn't take long for Russia to reposition forces there. It would be a huge strategic mistake for Ukraine not to secure that area.

I agree that the US should have done more and faster, but we have been the largest supplier of military aid by a good margin, and they surely would have lost the war some time ago without US support. We've also maintained a stronger DIB than anyone else in NATO.

Point taken on moving Russian forces, though only if they bolster Lukas' homeland security. I doubt he wants a revolution, regardless of what the Kremlin wants. And I'm sure Putin gets that too.

The NATO situation is tragic. The US, as ever, is the only force that is worth anything, and given the state of procurement and manufacturing, that's not a massively glowing endorsement. When I see the stories of other NATO nations sending things to Ukraine, it reads like a smattering of afterthoughts that, were this the opening to WWIII for real, would mean the Fulda Gap getting steamrolled even faster than AirLand Battle doctrine expected. It's pathetic that a nation like France is the only viable peer military that could stand against Russian invasion. The rest of NATO, excepting Turkey, are like militias by comparison.

It's at least something that the UK has upped spending, even if they've picked the worst possible time to try and correct over a decade of replacing the armed forces with glorified counter-insurgency units (I guess on the assumption, as it seems for most of NATO, that no one would ever need to fight a war with a peer adversary ever again). We've had two Trident tests fail in succession too, so... there's that.

I forget which article it was, I think it was in Foreign Affairs, though it was some throwaway line that stood out at me about how the West is flailing trying to get things in order because of the private aspect of the MIC, while Russia just tells people to build shit and hop to it. It reminds me of the shell crisis in 1915 and how I guess we've not really learned too much from it. Certainly 2023 should have been a turning point.

Er, that's a lot of waffle. Apologies. I blame a little wine.

MissConductUS · 25/05/2024 00:39

No apologies needed @ShambalaAnna, you make some very good points.

AirLand Battle doctrine was replaced over twenty years ago with Full Spectrum Operations and Active Defense, which addressed some serious shortcomings in the earlier doctrine. And UK ground forces haven't had an expeditionary order of battle for a very long time. My heart breaks when I think of how badly the British Army has been degraded. The Bundeswehr has suffered even more. They're down to 62k active duty positions, and that's everyone - cooks, accountants, medics, truck drivers, etc. The whole bloody lot of them would fit in Fort Hood, Texas.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 25/05/2024 10:43

The Bundeswehr has suffered even more. They're down to 62k active duty positions, and that's everyone - cooks, accountants, medics, truck drivers, etc. The whole bloody lot of them would fit in Fort Hood, Texas.

And the state of them is terrifying, including the IT situation, from what I hear.

while Russia just tells people to build shit and hop to it.

True, but the corruption means that a lot less is achieved than you'd expect on paper. But your point remains.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 25/05/2024 10:44

"The Russian breakthrough in the direction of Kharkiv ended in military casualties of 1 in 8. One Ukrainian for eight Russians", - Zelensky in an interview with journalists from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. (Maks, on Twitter).

Ukraine can't afford to lose soldiers - but 1 to 8 is a good ratio.

blueshoes · 25/05/2024 10:53

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-24-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • Western media continues to report that Russian President Vladimir Putin is interested in a negotiated ceasefire in Ukraine, although Kremlin rhetoric and Russian military actions illustrate that Putin remains uninterested in meaningful negotiations and any settlement that would prevent him from pursuing the destruction of an independent Ukrainian state.
  • Russian sources that have spoken to Western media have also offered mutually contradictory characterizations of Putin's stance on negotiations.
  • These Russian sources notably highlighted territorial concessions as part of Putin's alleged envisioned ceasefire but have sparsely addressed the wider strategic objectives of Putin's war in Ukraine.
  • A ceasefire does not preclude Russia from resuming its offensive campaign to destroy Ukrainian statehood, and Russia would use any ceasefire to prepare for future offensive operations within Ukraine.
  • Russia is currently preparing for the possibility of a conventional war with NATO, and the Kremlin will likely view anything short of Ukrainian capitulation as an existential threat to Russia's ability to fight such a war.
  • The Kremlin will continue to feign interest in negotiations at critical moments in the war to influence Western decision-making on support for Ukraine and to continue efforts to extract preemptive concessions from the West.
  • Putin directly rejected Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's legitimacy as president on May 24, the latest in a series of efforts to dismiss Zelensky's authority to engage in or reject negotiations with Russia and undermine Ukrainians' trust in Zelensky.
  • Unnamed Russian government officials and sources within the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and the Kremlin told the independent Russian outlet The Moscow Times that the ongoing effort to remove senior Russian defense officials and uniformed commanding officers will likely continue in the coming weeks and months.
  • Ukrainian forces conducted a series of successful missile strikes against military targets in Russian-occupied Ukraine on May 23 and 24.
  • Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a drone strike against a Russian early warning radar system in Krasnodar Krai, Russia on the morning of May 23.
  • The Ukrainian military command continues to address Ukraine's manpower challenges.
  • The US Department of Defense (DoD) announced a military assistance package worth $275 million on May 24 to help Ukrainian forces repel Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast.
  • NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated on May 24 that NATO member states should consider lifting restrictions on Ukraine's use of Western-provided weapons to strike military targets in Russia.
  • Russian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk, Svatove, Kreminna, and Donetsk City.
  • The Financial Times (FT) reported on May 23 that Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksandr Lytvynenko stated that Russia recruited more than 385,000 military personnel in 2023.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 49
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 25/05/2024 11:55

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚑️ General Staff: Russian troops halted https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-ukraine-conducts-counteroffensive-actions-in-the-kharkiv-sector-russia-troops-halted/ in Kharkiv sector, Ukraine conducts counterattacks.

⚑️Putin looking for ceasefire to cement gains in Ukraine, Reuters reports https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-putin-ready-for-ceasefire-recognising-current-front-lines-will-fight-on-otherwise/ citing sources.

⚑️Zelensky: Ukrainian forces take back control https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-ukrainian-forces-take-back-control-near-state-border-in-kharkiv-oblast/ near state border in Kharkiv Oblast.

⚑️ US announces https://kyivindependent.com/us-announces-new-military-package-for-ukraine-including-himars-rockets-artillery-shells/ new military package for Ukraine, including HIMARS rockets, artillery shells.

⚑️Stoltenberg joins https://kyivindependent.com/stoltenberg-joins-growing-calls-to-lift-restrictions-on-ukraines-ability-to-use-western-weapons-to-strike-russia/ growing calls to lift restrictions on Ukraine's ability to use Western weapons to strike Russia.

⚑️Polish FM says US will strike https://kyivindependent.com/polish-fm-says-us-will-strike-russian-troops-in-ukraine-if-russia-uses-nuclear-weapons/ Russian troops in Ukraine if Russia uses nuclear weapons.
Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said in an interview published on May 25 that the U.S. has told Russia that if it uses nuclear weapons, there will be an American response using conventional weapons on Russian forces in Ukraine.

⚑️Baltics, Poland, other countries agree https://kyivindependent.com/lithuanias-interior-minister-says-group-of-countries-including-baltic-states-poland-have-agreed-to-create-drone-wall/ to create 'drone wall.'
A group of countries, including the Baltic states, Poland, Norway, and Finland, have agreed to create a "drone wall" to help defend their collective borders, Lithuanian Interior Minister Agne Bilotaite said in an interview with the Lithuanian media outlet BNS published on May 24.

Berlin has handed over 10 Leopard 1 A5 tanks, ammunition for Leopard 2 tanks, 8,500 rounds of 155 mm ammunition, 20 Vector reconnaissance drones with spare parts, 34 RQ-35 Heidrun reconnaissance drones, and other aid in its latest delivery of military aid to Ukraine, the German government said on May 22. https://kyivindependent.com/germany-sends-leopard-1-tanks-drones-ammunition-in-latest-aid-package-to-ukraine/

⚑️ Media: Ukraine refuses https://kyivindependent.com/media-ukraine-refuses-to-accept-some-leopard-1-tanks-from-germany-denmark-due-to-defects/ to accept some Leopard 1 tanks from Germany, Denmark due to defects.
Ukraine refused to accept some outdated Leopard 1A5 battle tanks from Denmark and Germany due to numerous defects, Danish broadcaster DR reported on May 24, citing Danish Defense Ministry documents.

⚑️German defense minister: Ukraine receives https://kyivindependent.com/minister-ukraine-receives-another-iris-t-air-defense-system-from-germany/ another Iris-T air defense system from Germany.

Ukraine announces https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-announces-mandatory-evacuation-for-over-120-children-from-kharkiv-oblast/ mandatory evacuation for 123 children from Kharkiv Oblast. [bad sign]

Moscow deployed units from the Russian Defense Ministry's Africa Corps to fight alongside Russia's regular army and Storm-Z units comprised of convicts to attack the town of Vovchansk in Kharkiv Oblast over the past week, the U.K. Defense Ministry reported on May 24. https://kyivindependent.com/uk-defense-ministry-russia-deploys-its-africa-corps-for-kharkiv-oblast-offensive/

As Russian losses in Ukraine hit 500,000 https://kyivindependent.com/russian-losses-in-ukraine-hit-500-000-how-significant-is-this/ Putin buries future demographic risks at home
According to Ukraine's General Staff, over half a million Russian soldiers were either killed or wounded in Ukraine during the 27-month-long full-scale war.

https://kyivindependent.com/nabu-first-deputy-director-suspended-amid-leak-investigation/
Gizo Uglava, the first deputy director of Ukraine's National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU), was suspended amid an ongoing investigation into a possible leak from the bureau, NABU said on May 24.

⚑️ Orban: Russia couldn't 'swallow' NATO as it struggles to defeat Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/orban-hungary-nato/

⚑️Dragon Capital firm complains about pressure from authorities https://kyivindependent.com/dragon-capital-investment-group-complains-about-pressure-from-authorities/ , Bureau of Economic Security denies.

Ukraine’s drone companies face β€˜death, migration, or global acquisition’ https://kyivindependent.com/global-acquisition-migration-or-death-ukraines-drone-companies-seek-opportunities-abroad-amid-defense-spending-shortfall/ amid defense spending squeeze
A surge of domestic drone companies in Ukraine has outpaced what the government budget can support, leading many companies to increasingly seek international partnerships or face consolidation.

⚑️ Governor: Russian attacks on Nikopol injure 3 people.
⚑️Russian forces attack 12 communities in Sumy Oblast.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

  • MAY 25, 2024
β–  1k+ casualties; 500,000 mark reached β–  Tank losses above avg, 7-day MLRS at YTD record level β–  πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί strikes down, πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ ones up, leading to an improved strike ratio β–  KIU: +40 officers; 5.2 per day in last four batches (+0.17)
Ukraine Invasion: Part 49
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 25/05/2024 12:14

Editted: computer had a weird moment

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 25/05/2024 12:20

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Russia is using advanced technologies to interfere with Starlink's work at the front, β€” Mykhailo Fedorov, Deputy Prime Minister for Innovation, Education, Science and Technology Development and Minister of Digital Transformation of Ukraine.
He said that Russia's recent attacks on Starlink were likely carried out using new and more sophisticated technology.
Previously, Starlink was able to withstand interference at the frontline, where electronic warfare, radio jamming, and other communication disruptions were widely used.

πŸ“‘ The accuracy of some Western weapons has decreased due to Russian electronic warfare (EW), reports The Washington Post.
As a result, Kyiv has stopped using certain weapons that rely on satellite guidance, such as Excalibur projectiles and HIMARS systems.
An American official stated that the US is equipping HIMARS with additional equipment to ensure accurate targeting. One way Ukrainians counter Russian EW is by using drones to target enemy positions before firing.

Military aid previously allocated by the US to Ukraine has already reached the front line, and new aid will be sent shortly, stated United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

A serious cyber attack on a NATO country can activate Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, stated NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
In an interview with The Economist, Stoltenberg noted that NATO member states can intensify joint defense actions not only in the case of direct armed aggression.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit the Czech Republic and Moldova from May 28 to 31 to discuss NATO's military support for Ukraine.

The G7 is laying the groundwork for using profits from frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine, according to a draft communique following the meeting of finance ministers in Stresa, Italy.

More details:
Germany has announced a new military aid package for Ukraine.
The package will include:
▫️10 Leopard 1 A5 battle tanks (jointly with Denmark);
▫️Bergepanzer 2 ARV armored recovery vehicle;
▫️Biber bridge paver;
armored engineering vehicle Pionierpanzer Dachs;
▫️16 Mercedes-Benz Zetros trucks;
▫️ 4 Wisent 1 engineering vehicles;
▫️34 RQ-35 Heidrun reconnaissance drones;
▫️20 VECTOR reconnaissance drones with spare parts;
▫️8,500 rounds of ammunition for 155-mm artillery;
▫️1.75 million rounds of ammunition for firearms;
▫️111 Haenel CR308 rifles, 80 Haenel HLR338 sniper rifles, 540 Haenel MK556 assault rifles;
▫️ 20 MG3 machine guns for Leopard tanks, Marder armored personnel carriers and engineering vehicles.

Romania has arrested a spy who has been passing data on military equipment for Ukraine to the Kremlin for 2 years.
Since 2022, the defendant has been observing Romanian or NATO military facilities located on the outskirts of Tulcea. He collected military information and photographed military equipment and military vehicles, and the movement of personnel in the border area with Ukraine. He sent the data to the staff of the Russian Embassy in Bucharest, according to the DIICOT (Directorate for Investigating Organized Crime and Terrorism).
This is the first arrest in Romania, the center of Western military and humanitarian supplies to Ukraine since Russia's full-scale invasion of the country.

πŸ‡³πŸ‡±The Netherlands and the International Fund will allocate another €175 million for the purchase of equipment for Ukraine.

Hesse intends to become the first federal state in Germany to introduce Ukrainian as a second foreign language in schools. In order to do this, the state ministry of religious affairs, which is also responsible for education and culture, announced a competition on May 24 to fill vacancies for future specialists and teachers. The study of Ukrainian in Hesse's schools is to begin in the next school year (2024/2025).

Watch the Russian S-400 system fire its load, and then an entire S-400 battery β€” four launchers and a radar β€” get wiped out by Ukrainian-operated ATACMS missiles. https://t.me/United24media/22127 [rather spectacular]

Russia is negotiating a visa-free regime with Zimbabwe, reports the propaganda publication Izvestia.

UNITED24Media

Watch the Russian S-400 system fire its load, and then an entire S-400 battery β€” four launchers and a radar β€” get wiped out by Ukrainian-operated ATACMS missiles.

https://t.me/United24media/22127

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 25/05/2024 12:43

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights Thread

πŸ‡­πŸ‡ΊAgain? Again. Hungary delays https://www.ft.com/content/ce730028-688f-4c36-9f5b-6b240f76134a** financing weapons for Ukraine from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets.
Previously, the EU countries agreed to provide €2 billion a year in military aid from Russian assets worth €190 billion stored in Belgium. But the Hungarian ambassador voted against β€œaccelerated payments” the day before. According to the FT, Hungary may block the disbursement of funds at least until the European Parliament elections in June.
Orban said yesterday that his country is β€œrethinking” its NATO membership status to β€œbe able to refuse to participate in the Alliance's activities outside of it.”

πŸͺ–The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine plans to reduce its staff by 60%, the agency said https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/14875
The dismissed personnel are to be used to staff operational and tactical command and control bodies, as well as combat military units.

A plane belonging to former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych has arrived in Belarus, where Lukashenko and Putin are meeting, reports the Belaruski Hajun monitoring group

πŸ‡©πŸ‡ͺHesse plans to become the first federal state in Germany to introduce https://aussiedlerbote.de/en/hesse-introduces-teaching-ukrainian-as-a-second-foreign-language/ Ukrainian as a second foreign language in schools
Currently, about 20,000 children who fled the war in Ukraine are studying in Hesse, and more than 300 Ukrainian teachers work in local schools.

❗️Russia holds at least 403 Ukrainian women in captivity, including civilians.
This is the data currently known to the Coordination Center for the Treatment of Prisoners of War.

Radio Liberty publishes a satellite image from May 23, taken over the Kushchevskaya air base in Krasnodar Territory, which was attacked by Ukrainian drones on the night of May 19
The satellite showed at least three heavily damaged fighter jets. Presumably, these are Su-27, Su-30 and Su-34. After the air raid on the base, the Russians relocated most of the aircraft.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 49
ShambalaAnna · 25/05/2024 13:37

The WaPo article blurb about accuracy undersells it. The reliance on GPS and only GPS for many modern US munitions is a massive liability when going against a peer nation with the best EW around. I cannot believe GMLRS and other systems like Excalibur are practically useless when GPS jamming is in effect, and Starlink is now being targeted effectively too I hear.

https://www.congress.gov/118/meeting/house/116957/witnesses/HHRG-118-AS35-Wstate-PattD-20240313.pdf

There is a not insignificant problem in changing this mindset of high tech, smaller scale munitions vs. industrial amounts of much cheaper and easier to deploy, albeit slightly less accurate systems. The Excalibur is a good example of this, as we lose a lot of fill in the shell to GPS antennae and sensors that are also much less robust due to the impact of acceleration on even those hardened electronics.

Give me a million standard 155 mm shells circa 1989 over 100,000 Excalibur shells, and I’ll get shit done with the modern ISR now available. And you cannot jam something flying with Sir Isaac Newton in the driving seat.

https://www.congress.gov/118/meeting/house/116957/witnesses/HHRG-118-AS35-Wstate-PattD-20240313.pdf

MissConductUS · 25/05/2024 14:06

ShambalaAnna · 25/05/2024 13:37

The WaPo article blurb about accuracy undersells it. The reliance on GPS and only GPS for many modern US munitions is a massive liability when going against a peer nation with the best EW around. I cannot believe GMLRS and other systems like Excalibur are practically useless when GPS jamming is in effect, and Starlink is now being targeted effectively too I hear.

https://www.congress.gov/118/meeting/house/116957/witnesses/HHRG-118-AS35-Wstate-PattD-20240313.pdf

There is a not insignificant problem in changing this mindset of high tech, smaller scale munitions vs. industrial amounts of much cheaper and easier to deploy, albeit slightly less accurate systems. The Excalibur is a good example of this, as we lose a lot of fill in the shell to GPS antennae and sensors that are also much less robust due to the impact of acceleration on even those hardened electronics.

Give me a million standard 155 mm shells circa 1989 over 100,000 Excalibur shells, and I’ll get shit done with the modern ISR now available. And you cannot jam something flying with Sir Isaac Newton in the driving seat.

Edited

The commander of US Army Europe agrees with you.

Taking aim: Army leaders ponder mix of precision munitions vs conventional Three four-star US Army generals this week weighed in with their opinions about finding the right balance between conventional and high-tech munitions - but the answers aren't easy.

All American weapons that use GPS have an inertial guidance backup system, but it can never replicate the accuracy of GPS guidance.

I read somewhere that updated GMLRS rounds with improved anti-ew capability were part of the most recent weapons transfer to Ukraine, but I can't find the article.

What is needed now is more weapons that specifically target EW assets, like the AGM-88 HARM missile the F-16 can carry. I understand that more of those are on the way, too, but they can't use the home on jamming mode with the Ukrainian Soviet-era jets.

Taking aim: Army leaders ponder mix of precision munitions vs conventional

Three four-star US Army generals this week weighed in with their opinions about finding the right balance between conventional and high-tech munitions - but the answers aren't easy.

https://breakingdefense.com/2024/05/taking-aim-army-leaders-ponder-mix-of-precision-munitions-vs-conventional/

ShambalaAnna · 25/05/2024 14:52

Yeah, it’s been a subject of some controversy as you have those wanting to continue the route of having a force that mainly comprises high speed, low drag operators with high tech stand off support, versus an actual old school Cold War army. The former is really only good at policing actions and COINTELPRO in places like Iraq and Afghanistan, which may have been fine from 2001 till relatively recently. However, since it’s clear Francis Fukuyama was way wrong about how neoliberal democracy means history has ended and stayed frozen circa the 1990s, it’s time to be realistic and undo the harm Western gov’ts have done to the military.

Now, I’m not by any means a warhawk, and the neocons did more to harm the image of the military than they can imagine. That said, the need to actually INVEST in manpower, equipment and R&D is the ONLY way you will get a force that could take on Russia or China or whomever is considered a threat.

The main problem? The very order we have is predisposed to not empowering labour to have the ability to meet these needs. You cannot have people running a war machine that is, right now, talking about off shoring US Navy shipyard work to South Korea and Japan instead of doing anything in the US because it would mean paying more for workers and investing in US based infrastructure. That’s just ridiculous, because it leads to this frankly bizarre juxtaposition of politicians calling this current state of affairs a literal existential threat, and in the same breath, not agreeing to fund BAE or Rheinmetall for procurement of new M777 or 155 mm shell production. Which is it?

Want to defeat Trump? Get Biden to do the IRA plan, but pivot it to reinvigorating national production capacity and streamline procurement. No more pork barrel projects like the absurd F-35 and DDG-1000. More emphasis on meeting standard production quotas that allow training and for ramping up for times of war without a delay to build bloody factories and train people since the only skilled workers are in their 60s.

Move more towards a bulk force of proven models and tactics. The idea that the West will have air dominance needs to be smacked on the head. It is a bad doctrine, because it was never going to be guaranteed. There is always a cost to whatever doctrine you decide to go with, I just think the US and UK learned the wrong lessons from WWII and with LeMay and others, got too infatuated with air power being the best all, end all of warfare.

Which is easier? Calling in a fire mission by an artillery battalion, or getting the USAF to load up an air frame, fly to the combat zone and maybe not get shot down in the process? There is a reason Russia is primarily an artillery army: it works. It always has, it always will. Soldiers charging machine gun nests or calling in an air strike looks cool in movies. In reality, soldiers are subservient to artillery. Once you have suppressed the other side, then you go in and sweep the area and do the Band of Brothers stuff. The new anti-radiation JDAM packs and modernised HARM or ALARM can help get SEAD done better too, allowing that air support to be more useful but NOT to be the thing to give infantry the easy ride. That leads to your entire force reliant on a single and very vulnerable crutch in the form of the air force, which Vietnam showed is a not great way to prosecute war.

More squad support arms too. Look at what the average PLA regiment fields compared the US equivalent. The US spent a tonne of money on a new battlefield AR with a proprietary round. The Chinese just use grenade launchers and DMRs. And obviously drones and better field EW and newer lighter ATGM MBT or IFV systems with spaced slat armour (sorry, β€œcope cages”).

I could go on. Give me the budget of, say, 5% GDP to invest and uphold the social contract between state and soldier (do NOT get me started on how this has been broken leading to dismal recruitment numbers) and I will give you a force to rival any round the world. And they don’t be beaten by no insurgents in technicals, let me tell you.

notimagain · 25/05/2024 15:04

Thinking very simplistically I guess this is what happens to some extent when you convince yourself large scale battles and peer on peer conflict are a thing of the past.

You start thinking pretty much only in terms of an opponent that has no EW capability and you on the main only needing weaponry that will take out the odd insurgent/individual with minimum collateral damage.

Seems we might be back to the days of having to take out whole grid squares and and things links tank parks and assembly areas with munitions delivered in a fairly dumb manner …

blueshoes · 25/05/2024 16:04

⚑️Putin looking for ceasefire to cement gains in Ukraine, Reuters reportshttps://kyivindependent.com/reuters-putin-ready-for-ceasefire-recognising-current-front-lines-will-fight-on-otherwise/**citing sources.

Could all this recent noise by Russia of a negotiated ceasefire mean that Russia's attacks on Ukraine have culminated? Hence the need for breathing space by Russia.

ShambalaAnna · 25/05/2024 16:05

notimagain · 25/05/2024 15:04

Thinking very simplistically I guess this is what happens to some extent when you convince yourself large scale battles and peer on peer conflict are a thing of the past.

You start thinking pretty much only in terms of an opponent that has no EW capability and you on the main only needing weaponry that will take out the odd insurgent/individual with minimum collateral damage.

Seems we might be back to the days of having to take out whole grid squares and and things links tank parks and assembly areas with munitions delivered in a fairly dumb manner …

From the books I've read and the people I know in the forces who aren't captured by industry interests, the primary problem outside of assuming no nation of note will engage in non-asymmetric warfare, is that of our economic model.

Consider what has happened to the West since the '70s and the rise of Reagan and Thatcher. You can see how that gutted our industries in multitude of ways, and the US managed to keep hold of most of their military clout, while the UK and elsewhere began to lose steam. By the '90s this is all very self-evident and even the US has fallen off the need to keep a large, conventional force with redundancy. The GWOT happens and we're reduced to making things like Reapers and MRAPs.

What do those last two have in common? They try to reduce the impact of human casualties. Now, that isn't a bad thing, since afterall, we are interested in protecting humans where land and machinery can be recaptured or replaced. You can't do that with humans too readily, and if you try, you're probably becoming worse than the enemy given the social stigma in relation to the likes of the Somme and Verdun or Market Garden.

This does not equate to a proper military force, though. You have to use humans and you have to accept losses and that your amazing new toys will not change the fact that you need boots on the ground. Remember all those stories about tanks being obsolete? It's not the first time a war has prompted that discourse. In fact, that kind of debate has happened since 1916 when they first got fielded. And yet, can you think of a better way to move a field support gun across terrain at the tip of the spear? There isn't one. ATGMs do not make tanks obsolete anymore than SAMs would make planes so. The white paper in the '60s the UK fielded assumed that, and it was stupid then and it still is today.

I digress. The economy that supports your military, along with adequate soldiers (not warriors of the gristled spec forces operators type) and without that, you don't have a force. Sure, you may have a lot of stowed cruise missiles and fancy GPS guided rockets or advanced tanks and gunships. But... what if they aren't in sufficient number and start attriting? The Wehrmacht and Luftwaffe found out what heppens when you have fancier, almost artisanal tanks and planes that are assumed to be pound-for-pound better than the enemy ones, but you know what? A Tiger can only be in one place at a time. A dozen Sherman and T-34s? They can be in many places at the same time. That Me-262 is fast and all, but how long do those turbine blades last did you say? And the fuel usage is how much?!

It seems obvious now, to think that Nazi Germany could never outcompete the Allies in sheer tonnage of machinery and number of soldiers produced. Yet you still get people figuring that if they played it better in deployment or tactics, they'd have still won just because of assumed better equipment.

This is why you cannot rely on high tech, smaller batch hardware with specialist users running the game. You will get wiped out by the bigger force that has far more productive capacity to draw upon, even if you kill 100 enemy tanks for every one you lose, if they're making 1000 to every ten you build, you're losing.

Under our present economy paradigm, the politicians and captains of industry look at GDP and assume that means we win. It does not. If your GDP is predicated on making smartphones and financial skullduggery, while the lesser power has all the GDP in steel working and munitions production, guess which one matters more materially.

We REALLY need to undo this stupid financialisation of the West and get back to MAKING THINGS. Growing stuff too, while we're at it. We need more people learning a trade, not how to fucking code. We need more factories that manufacture tank barrels, that train people on how to produce artillery fills and why your fancy stealth plane is probably less great an investment than teaching soldiers how to entrench and call on fire missions.

Unfortunately, I am not seeing this message sink in. Instead, I see the same tired hot takes of how much bigger Europe and America's GDP is, without accounting for the fact that NONE of that matters if it's all coming from things that aren't feedin the war machine. This shouldn't need to be spelt out, and even so, how many major moves to addressing this have come about in over two years of this conflict? Russia has learnt these lessons. Ukraine has learnt these lessons, although is hamstrung by being on the backfoot industry-wise.

When will we learn them? I have an inkling that "never" if we are still getting messages about profits being maintained after we defeat Russia, and no one looking into either nationalising these companies (again) or underwriting their investments to enable long term production, since they insist it's not worth their while even as our leaders say this is a matter of national security. Nay, INTERNATIONAL security.

ShambalaAnna · 25/05/2024 16:14

blueshoes · 25/05/2024 16:04

⚑️Putin looking for ceasefire to cement gains in Ukraine, Reuters reportshttps://kyivindependent.com/reuters-putin-ready-for-ceasefire-recognising-current-front-lines-will-fight-on-otherwise/**citing sources.

Could all this recent noise by Russia of a negotiated ceasefire mean that Russia's attacks on Ukraine have culminated? Hence the need for breathing space by Russia.

I don't think it's as clear cut.

https://t.me/tass_agency/250701?embed=1

It would seem he wants to achieve the SMO objectives, then negotiate. The messaging is a bit muddled here.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 49
MagicFox · 25/05/2024 16:19

They've bombed a supermarket in Kharkiv with at least 200 civilians inside. Complete barbaric terrorism

OP posts:
AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 25/05/2024 16:21

ShambalaAnna · 25/05/2024 16:14

I don't think it's as clear cut.

https://t.me/tass_agency/250701?embed=1

It would seem he wants to achieve the SMO objectives, then negotiate. The messaging is a bit muddled here.

If I were asked, I would guess that his new accountant (the man who got put in charge of the armed forces is an accountant) has told him what everyone has been saying for a while: that Russia can be as big and powerful and populous and wealthy and all the rest as they like, but this war is not ending any time soon and they can't actually afford it. Also that the longer it goes on, the less Russia is going to be taken seriously as a force in the world; and that winning the ground is not going to be a victory in the long term because once they have won it, they then have to hold it.

He doesn't give a flying fig about the deaths and torture, but he cares about personal loss of face, and that is what he's being warned about.

Igotjelly · 25/05/2024 16:31

MagicFox · 25/05/2024 16:19

They've bombed a supermarket in Kharkiv with at least 200 civilians inside. Complete barbaric terrorism

They really are fucking animals.

ShambalaAnna · 25/05/2024 16:42

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 25/05/2024 16:21

If I were asked, I would guess that his new accountant (the man who got put in charge of the armed forces is an accountant) has told him what everyone has been saying for a while: that Russia can be as big and powerful and populous and wealthy and all the rest as they like, but this war is not ending any time soon and they can't actually afford it. Also that the longer it goes on, the less Russia is going to be taken seriously as a force in the world; and that winning the ground is not going to be a victory in the long term because once they have won it, they then have to hold it.

He doesn't give a flying fig about the deaths and torture, but he cares about personal loss of face, and that is what he's being warned about.

I don't really see anything with the current way of conducting operations that leads me to believe Russia is in a rush (heh) to take ground. We know how well that fared in 2022, and it didn't go down very well for them.

It would appear to me, and others have commented on this, that they are happier taking a much reduced tempo that favours slow grinding down of AFU forces for occasional exchanges in land. They don't want to move too far ahead of their prepared lines, as that will end badly. I think a lot of the movement of late has been testing the waters, perhaps shaping actions for a bigger push (we hear those stories about a supposed big offensive push at some undisclosed time).

That would be my guess, anyway. Both sides have been relatively static after the big moves of late 2022 where they've more or less been since in many respects.

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 25/05/2024 16:52

I think we need look no further than the pro-Putin faction in the US Republican party for the reason the Ukrainians were somewhat handicapped in regard to recent operations, frankly.

MagicFox · 25/05/2024 19:23

What else is new?! It's been going on here since the threads began:

Russia expected to meddle in UK election as regime β€˜targets forums like Mumsnet’
Russia’s growing and nefarious influence has reached discussion forums, where propagandists integrate themselves into online communities

inews.co.uk/news/world/russia-uk-election-meddle-mumsnet-3072676

OP posts:
AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 25/05/2024 19:25

I'd like to think we may be getting better at spotting the botting.

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