Ukraine Invasion: Part 49

[MagicFox]

Welcome to our 49th thread with the usual thanks to all regular contributors and lurkers 🇺🇦

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There's a thread going on at the moment about key election issues and I'm afraid to say that defence and deterrence appears bafflingly low on the agenda of many people

Was just reading the ‘being lined up’ thread that’s trending and someone mentioned that if Kyiv was overrun that German and French troops would go in. If, and that’s a hopefully not if, Russia did manage somehow to take control of Kyiv, would that trigger a response from European troops given that Ukraine is not In nato?

Is it because the ATACMS are too fast and EW does not work on them?

AFAIK ATACMS uses or can use, inertial navigation for inflight guidance so it’s unjammable.

Inertial usually doesn’t have the accuracy you can get with GPS but with cluster munitions against a soft target you don’t need to be plus/minus a couple of metres.

That thread is bonkers. The fact folk can’t see why there would be a need to have some level of preparedness is baffling, they’re all wondering what the secret thing is the Govt knows. Anyone with eyes should be able to see the Worlds off to hell in a handcart! Nothing secret about it!

It's a hybrid inertial and GPS guidance system. The flight control system fails over to inertial guidance if the GPS loses signal lock or appears to be being spoofed.

The speed certainly does make the interception more difficult. If the ATACMS is approaching the target at Mach 3 (2,300 mph, give or take) and the interceptor is rising to meet it at Mach 2.5 or so, the time when they are close enough for the warhead on the interceptor to destroy or deflect the ATACMS is only a few milliseconds. So the slightest delay or guidance error will result in a miss.

There are enough confirmed kills of S-300 and S-400 units by ATACMS that it's safe to assume that the probability of an intercept is very low.

The number of missiles used against a target depends on its value and the probability of interception. When they destroyed that most recent Russian ship, three ATACMS were assigned to the target, which was probably overkill, given what we know now.

Edited to add that @notimagain is quite correct. Since the cluster munitions are spread out over a wide area, pinpoint accuracy isn't needed to kill soft targets like this or troops in the open.

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps announced that a 150 million pounds military package (over 217 million euros) is being sent to Ukraine to strengthen its air and sea defense.

A new mobilization in the Russian Federation may be announced before the beginning of 2025, reports the Financial Times, citing a source close to the military command.
According to the source, the Russian authorities are currently "ready to sacrifice some operational successes at the front" to "protect society." However, by the end of the year, mobilization "will become inevitable," as a new major offensive would be impossible without it.

Filtration camps for Ukrainians are being built in Russia, reports the National Resistance Center of Ukraine.
Large-scale construction has begun in the Russian Volga region under the guise of children's pioneer camps.
According to the National Resistance Center, the Russians are building modular houses, “more like barracks, that will accommodate hundreds of ‘visitors’”.
“The Kremlin has been building a system of filtration camps since the beginning of its occupation of Ukraine. In such zones, people are tested for loyalty to the occupation authorities. They are also trying to create a database of residents of the occupied territories,” the center reported.
Recently, filtration measures have been intensified on the territory of Ukraine temporarily controlled by the occupation forces. Particularly strict checks are observed in the South of Ukraine.

NVIDIA, despite Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russian military-industrial enterprises, keeps on knowingly and covertly cooperating with Russian drone manufacturers.
Meanwhile, NVIDIA shares have surpassed the $1,000 mark for the first time in history and are trading with a market capitalization of more than $2.5 trillion. This is more than Amazon and Tesla combined, according to the international intelligence community InformNapalm.

Norway has banned Russian tourists from entering the country.
The government said that as of May 29, new border crossing rules will be in effect for Russian citizens: they will now be denied entry if the purpose of their visit is tourism. At the same time, they will be able to enter the country if they have a valid reason, such as study, work, or a visit to relatives.

Today, the Russians hit one of the largest printing complexes in Europe — "Factor Druk" in Kharkiv.
“This is one of the largest full-cycle printing complexes in Europe, so books from almost all Ukrainian publishers are printed there,” the Vivat book publishing house stated.

💔 The Russian attack on a printing house in Kharkiv destroyed 50,000 books.

⚡️ Marshal of the Senate of the Republic of Poland, Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska, has arrived in Kyiv on an official visit.

First time filtration camps have been mentioned in a while, and the talk of mobilization sounds potentially more serious.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Results of yesterday ATACMS strike in Donetsk
Two S-400 launchers were destroyed and one was damaged, and 1 radar and controller were also destroyed.

🇺🇦 Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Syrskyi:

▪️ Russian troops are completely bogged down in street battles for Vovchansk (Kharkiv oblast). The enemy has suffered very high casualties and is moving reserves from different directions to support the unsuccessful assault.

▪️ In the area of the village of Lyptsi (Kharkiv oblast), the Russians also suffered significant losses. They are now on the defensive, mining the area and shelling the positions of Ukrainian troops.

▪️ In the Kupiansk direction (Kharkiv oblast), fighting is taking place in the forests north of the city. The situation is difficult near the village of Kyslivka, where the enemy is trying to break through the defense and reach the Oskil River.

▪️ Intense fighting continues in the area of Ivanivske and on the outskirts of Chasov Yar (Donetsk oblast). The enemy is trying to capture the city at any cost andand is using the latest T-90M, BMP-3, and BMD-4. The equipment is usually destroyed by ATGMs and FPV drones at the stage of advance.

▪️ The most intense and fierce fighting continues in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions (Donetsk oblast). The enemy is trying to break through the defense in a narrow area between the villages of Staromykhailivka and Berdychi. The most trained Russian units are engaged in the battle.

▪️ The situation in other areas is also turbulent, but the intensity of fighting is much lower.

🇳🇴Norway announces https://www.regjeringen.no/no/aktuelt/bidrar-til-finansiering-av-ny-stottepakke-til-ukraina/id3040397/ new $190 million package of military assistance for Ukraine
The package is under the auspices of the International Fund for Ukraine (IFU), which is collectively financed by seven European countries. The support will go toward air defense, naval capabilities, radar, anti-drone systems, and boats.

Today, 4-year-old Zlata died in the hospital after she was injured in the Russian shelling of Odesa on 29 April.
A fragment of a Russian rocket struck her heart.

A drone carrying a Ukrainian flag was noticed in Russian St Petersburg. https://t.me/liveukraine_media/21234

British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps announced that a 150 million pounds military package (over 217 million euros) is being sent to Ukraine to strengthen its air and sea defense.

Minor point in the scheme of things but having just done a load of £>€ calculations (tax return time) there’s something very wrong with that exchange rate……is that a Shapp’s special?

It’s currently around 1.17, so the package is worth about €175 million.

It could be, but sometimes the Telegram channels also aren't quite accurate in details.

One of the trickier things in trying to keep track of sub-currents in the war is working out when simply two or three things happen by coincidence, or because the media are sort of creating a theme that isn't based on anything solid, or when there really is a pattern forming. The Ukraine media seems to try to be honest on the whole when they say anything at all, but it's not perfect.

Of course, the information they leave out distorts the overall picture but that's war / politics.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-23-2024

Key Takeaways:

• The Kremlin is pursuing a concerted effort to remove senior Russian defense officials and has likely expanded this effort to senior officers commanding Russian combat operations in Ukraine.
• Russian border guards removed buoys in Estonian waters of the Narva River, which demarcates the Estonian-Russian international border, likely to set conditions to further question maritime borders and test NATO resolve.
• Select US officials are reportedly pressing for a reconsideration of the White House's current policy prohibiting Ukraine from using US-provided weapons to strike within Russia.
• Polish Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Pawel Wronski stated on May 23 that Poland is considering using its air defense to protect Ukrainian airspace against Russian strikes.
• Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) conducted a series of drone strikes against Russian defense industrial facilities in the Republic of Tatarstan on May 23.
• Iranian leaders have used the occasion of President Ebrahim Raisi's funeral events to emphasize close ties with Armenia even as tensions between Yerevan and Moscow continue to increase.
• Ukrainian forces advanced near Lukyantsi and Kreminna, and Russian forces advanced near Berestove, Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka, Donetsk City, and Velyka Novosilka. [yay]
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) proposed applying regular military punishments to volunteers, likely as part of the MoD's continued formalization efforts.

@notimagain@MissConductUS appreciate your insight on the interception of ATACMS.

I did chip in on that but surprise, surprise, it’s been ignored!

Looking again at that thread about being prepped for something, there are some very familiar Kremlin lines being used. Election interference anyone?

I just replied to that one, for better or worse! Same as @WinterMorn - pointlessly I suspect

Yes there's a few threads at the moment: prepping, conscription, election fiddling...

Yay, Russian hybrid operations :/

Between that and Tory scaremongering it’s going to be a long 6 weeks.

For those of us less prone to hysteria, Chatham House have released an interesting new podcast on the role of foreign policy in this election. They also reflect on the reasoning behind calling it now (and despite what some on MN would have you believe it’s not imminent nuclear war….)

DH and I said we’re tired of the election already.

And yes being prepared for an emergency such as flooding etc for a few days just seems common sense.

But it was that one comment that got me wondering. If Russia somehow took Kyiv what, if anything, would Europe do?

@MissConductUS whats your view on Congress allowing Ukraine to use US munitions on Russian soil obs military targets? Likely to pass?

@DrBlackbird I believe that Macron recently said if this happened, he would consider sending in French troops if Zelenskyy asked for it.

@DrBlackbird

@MissConductUSwhats your view on Congress allowing Ukraine to use US munitions on Russian soil obs military targets? Likely to pass?

Congress has no official say in the decision. As Biden is commander in chief of the military, it's purely up to him. Congress has the power of the purse in military issues, but that's it. They don't set policy. That said, Biden might not have done it if it had been politically unpopular. Now that the Speaker of the House has endorsed it and he continues to have the support of his party for it, Biden has no reason not to do it from a domestic political standpoint.

Since it's all about his reelection now, the only reason for Biden to hold back would be if he thought it could lead to an expansion of the war that would hurt him politically. My take is that he doesn't have a strong opinion either way and will eventually go along, especially since his Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, is supporting it.

Good interview with Swedish and Estonian ministers of defence: podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/brussels-sprouts/id1238007695?i=1000656599080

To do what? To achieve what aims?

Macron talks a big game, but neither he nor anyone else has actually articulated a salient point regarding NATO boots on the ground (ignoring the SOF already there since 2014, anyway).

We can, and are doing, training in safe lands to allow troops to go to Ukraine to use that training without threat of being attacked. So Macron must be talking about actually fighting alongside the AFU soldiers, otherwise I'm at a loss to understand what he's getting at.

And as for Biden, ignoring him being mentally checked out and concerned about Trump, I think he's focused on Israel rather more these days. The last few months of dithering on matters have not led me to think otherwise.

One thing they could do is provide rear area security, which would free up Ukrainian troops for duty in the conflict zone. Ukraine currently has thousands of troops on the border with Belarus to prevent another attack from there.

I agree with you about Biden, but his advisors will want to prevent a significant worsening of the Ukrainians' position if only to prevent it from becoming more of a campaign issue that highlights the results of his dithering.

Lithuania or Latvia have said they might send troops to do exactly what @MissConductUS says, to take over duties further back freeing up soldiers to go to the front. Which is desperately needed.