Cost of living in the UK v the birth rate

[Potterpot]

I was reading an article where a young couple living in an expensive part of the country said they wouldn’t be able to afford having kids so they’ve made peace with that decision. I can understand why, especially after seeing on another thread that some people’s full time nursery bill costs £1600 a month for one child. The UK average property price at current rates is £1300 a month. That’s £3000 gone, before you’ve even thought about council tax, utility bills, food shopping, travel, saving, disposable income.

I understand being able to make the short term sacrifice financially to afford one child.

Unless one parent can be a SAHP or have significant family help, how are people affording two? Do you have to be high earners for this lifestyle now?

Is n Wales. We have high council tax for fuck all services. Recently got a 9% increase too.

It is really hard when they’re babies and you’re paying for childcare. We did earn more than minimum wage (joint about 70k) but we still had to make some lifestyle adjustments. We didn’t go on holiday, no new cars, we stayed in our small first home, hardly went out, no gym membership etc. I went part-time to help with childcare, grandparents did a day and we used a fantastic childminder who was a bit cheaper than nursery. We also waited until the eldest was 3 before having dc2 because it helped with childcare costs. I can imagine it must be really hard if you’re on minimum wage without benefit top-ups, especially with ever increasing costs. I can definitely see why some people would feel like they can’t afford children now.

It’s standard in the north. Lots of things are cheaper up here but council tax isn’t one of them.

No one I know waited that long to ‘decide’ to get their lives together. It takes time to undertake professional training, establish a career, save for a deposit, meet someone to partner with. I was lucky and met my (now ex) partner in my early 20s, but unless we were willing to start a family whilst in a room in a grotty bedsit (which would have been irresponsible when we had good job, and waiting meant we could live in a nice shared flat instead), we had to wait whilst we saved a deposit. Plus we were both building our careers to the point where time off for a young family would be acceptable, and not career suicide.
Most of my friends took longer to find someone, and yes, they chose to wait until they were in a stable relationship, not use a donor and go it alone whilst young, broke, and in shared rental flats. Not unreasonable really!
In the end it took us a long time to have a child I could carry to term, it was long enough and hard enough that more weren’t an option (and I always wanted a big family), but given that ex walked out when our child was born and he realised that being a parent is hard, I’m glad it took that long, as by then my career was at a point where I could support us on my own. If I’d been in my 20s, and early in my career, I’d have lost it all as wouldn’t have been able to afford accommodation, or childcare to let me work, and my family wouldn’t have space for me to stay (I’m a council estate kid, no big houses and spare rooms here!)
And no, we weren’t having fancy holidays and driving fancy cars (no car at all in fact). We were just trying to be responsible. If we hadn’t, and expected the benefit system to support us instead, there would be plenty ready to castigate us for that.

And isn't our electricity dearer too? And I'm sure our water is dearer in Wales, even though it rains ALL THE TIME.

Sorry. Derailed there.

@Potterpot I don't think that was representative. I have adult kids that age and when my kids were small I would have loved to give up work for a few years, but it wasn't possible with a mortgage. That isnt new. All my friends were similar, as were family elsewhere. People on very low paying jobs did what my nephew does now-one works days, another evenings, plus a few hours with child care. It's only until they go to school.

I grew up in poverty, would not recommend. It never leaves you.

And I'm sure our water is dearer in Wales, even though it rains ALL THE TIME.

It's not - very much in favour now for not-for-profit companies - welsh water in our area also fixes leaks - so despite having water meter never paid less.

I think it's more individual council rather than where in the country.

We're in the SE and band C in our council is just over £2,000

My friend's friend London council band C is just over £1,700

Services are crap in our area and from what my friend tells me it's even worse in her friend's London council. I think it's happening in a lot of places. High council tax but crap services

So you grew up in the North and like it there but people who grew up in the south, (both DH and I are Londoners but unfortunately have been priced out of SW London and Camden), despite having family in the south, we are not permitted to have a preference and family connections are irrelevant?

I agree. It’s not a good thing to have experienced, and I certainly wouldn’t recommend it.

We have 2 dc in London and DH has a high salary. I'm a sahm but we still pay nursery/preschool fees for age 2-4 years, for early years education (and then private school fees from age 4). Obviously we're in an affluent area and quite a few dcs at school are only children. But there are other families I see at soft play/library etc who are on lower incomes (I dont know them well but I know because they discuss being on UC etc), they often have 2+ dcs so they are managing somehow.

There will be exceptions but on the whole salaries haven’t gone up like house prices have

Yes, DH could go back FT and I could become a SAHP, so no nursery fees but we've done the sums and we'd be a little financially worse off that way. Plus obviously the long term loss would be much greater as when we don't have childcare fees anymore we will 'keep' our wages and pension for me in particular. So it's not financially prudent for me to quit work.

I’m in my 20s but I know nobody else my age having kids. Most are at least 30 if not 33+. That’s how long it takes to be settled enough to afford it most times

This makes total sense to me. Anyone totally giving up their job is putting themselves in a vulnerable position, married or not.

We have one child, have renovated multiple properties whilst working full time to get the house we have now whilst DS was young. Our biggest cost saving is family childcare, almost all of our friends who moved away have come home once they had kids to so grandparents can help out.

As we had DS a lot younger than our parents. Our very long term plan (DS is 10 we are 34) is that we can each condense our hours into 4 days when DS has kids, giving us 2 days we can be grandparents and help DS financially with any nursery bills.

I live in a 50p for a house 'bin town'😂which is actually very nice (note: not 'naice') I would agree that outside the SE the effects of CoL on family size aren't as acute.

My daughter is 11 now and in her class there are children from 5 families (including her own) with 4+ children. I don't know anyone who has stuck at one child through choice - one child families are pretty rare and usually due to health issues or relationship breakdown. Lots of my friends and peers (in our mid 30s) have good jobs paying £40k+ as a FTE and if you're in a couple that can get you a large 3 or 4 bed in decent catchment areas. A 3 bed functional (not necessarily bay windows and ceiling roses) 1930s house ie 2 reception rooms and a galley kitchen is about £180k in a safe, decent area. It is perfectly OK and do-able to have a series of jobs, rather than a career that would be irreparably damaged with 5 years out. Granted, there is one particular local employer which is responsible for much of it!

Some facts. The birth rate in the UK is now just below 1.5. So for every 100 people they will produce 75 children.
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/feb/23/birthrate-in-uk-falls-to-record-low-as-campaigners-say-procreation-is-a-luxury

Absolutely - there are loads of things I grew up without, and it was fucking shite.

Isn’t that more 150?

Where I live it is much lower than the national average and there are lots of infant school places available as a result, there is a petition on a local WhatsApp group I’m on as the council want to close the infant school as result of the lack of children Needing school places. I don’t know how anyone manages to have children like we did (Eldest nearly 17) on the money we had and stay in this area.

The population replacement rate is the number of children a couple needs to have, on average, to replace themselves and maintain a stable population size. The key points are:
The replacement rate is generally considered to be 2.1 children per couple. This is because not all children born will survive to reproductive age, and some couples may not have any children at all.
The 0.1 extra children per couple accounts for child mortality and infertility, so that on average the population can replace itself. In less developed countries with higher child mortality, the replacement rate may be as high as 2.3 children per couple.
The replacement rate is calculated based on women of childbearing age, not all females born. This is because not every female child will survive to adulthood and have children of their own.
Factors like sex ratio at birth and continued improvements in mortality can affect the exact replacement rate, but 2.1 is considered the standard global average, which ensures the population can replace itself from one generation to the next, accounting for child mortality, infertility, and other demographic factors

(Answers from Perplexity)

@Potterpot birth rate is births per woman

There’s nothing wrong with that at all, @distinctpossibility. Most of my family live somewhere where people have jobs rather than careers, and are very happy with that. It does seem unfair that anyone who wants the kind of career that necessitates living in a city, or just is from a city and wants to stay near their family, needs to either come from a wealthy family, or have smaller families themselves. Because the people I know from rich families are not by and large having to have these conversations. It means the working class will increasingly have a choice, ‘stay in their lane’ and out of the ‘professions’, or make huge sacrifices that their wealthy peers won’t need to. And that is incredibly unfair.