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Thread 40: Sunak -failure to plan, or planning to fail?

1000 replies

DuncinToffee · 23/03/2024 19:15

Or will the fuckitty fuckwits please fuck off

previous thread
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/5025316-thread-39-sunak-government-by-gaslight?page=40&reply=133987967

credits notonthestairs and dontcallmelen Wine

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DuncinToffee · 30/03/2024 18:56

The Tories are on track for their worst election result ever with fewer than 100 seats after the next general election

They're set to be wiped out fully in Scotland and Wales

15k ppl MRP poll

Labour would win 468, giving Labour a whopping 286-seat majority

Rishi Sunak is at risk of losing his own constituency, the new Richmond & Northallerton seat, to Labour

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/general-election-poll-tory-mp-party-cabinet-seats-6ktnbkt7b

If anyone can find a share token, much appreciated Wine

Tories to hold under 100 seats to Labour’s 468, says exclusive poll

Desperate Conservatives cannot see a path to victory as MRP survey of 15,000 people suggests even Rishi Sunak’s seat is at risk

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/general-election-poll-tory-mp-party-cabinet-seats-6ktnbkt7b

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BIossomtoes · 30/03/2024 19:09

Wow. 98 seats.

newnamethanks · 30/03/2024 19:16

🙏 hoping

DuncinToffee · 30/03/2024 19:24

The Tories will be hoping Reform will step aside like the Brexit party did in 2019.

Arise Lord Farage and Lord Tice

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BIossomtoes · 30/03/2024 19:28

I can’t see Tice agreeing to step aside. According to Isabelle Oakshott he’s really got the bit between his teeth now.

JessS1990 · 30/03/2024 19:35

DuncinToffee · 30/03/2024 18:58

What's notable in that poll is that Reform are not doing as well as some other polls have suggested.

Also interesting to see how many seats Labour may win in the SW.

Notonthestairs · 30/03/2024 19:38

If they can offer Farage a sop (ambassador to the US) then he might take it.
Tice would be left hanging with Anderson and whichever other desperate Tory MP hops the fence.

JessS1990 · 30/03/2024 19:44

Notonthestairs · 30/03/2024 19:38

If they can offer Farage a sop (ambassador to the US) then he might take it.
Tice would be left hanging with Anderson and whichever other desperate Tory MP hops the fence.

Gullis?

Notonthestairs · 30/03/2024 20:25

Looks there were 8 seats won by the Cons with a less than 2% majority.

commonslibrary.parliament.uk/general-election-2019-marginality/

If the current Tory MP isn't standing down I'd imagine any one of them might think they'd be better off with Reform and hope they bring Tory voters along with them.

I think - and I might be very wrong - that Gullis loves being in the Conservative gang. He's made a mint and been given a position. And I don't think he's as cynical as Anderson. As I say, I may well be very wrong about that.

tobee · 30/03/2024 20:45

Anyone know if a sitting PM (of any flavour) has lost their seat before? I mean that would astounding!

BIossomtoes · 30/03/2024 20:53

tobee · 30/03/2024 20:45

Anyone know if a sitting PM (of any flavour) has lost their seat before? I mean that would astounding!

Apparently not though Balfour came close.

Balfour's unseating became symbolic of the Conservative Party's landslide defeat. The result has since been called one of the biggest upsets in British political history and remains the only instance of a former Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition losing their seat in a General election.

tobee · 31/03/2024 03:07

Thanks @Blossomtoes

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itsgettingweird · 31/03/2024 10:27

That'll help their promise pledge, aspiration to cut waiting times 🙄

pointythings · 31/03/2024 11:29

DuncinToffee · 31/03/2024 10:18

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/421a041e-8ce7-40c8-b3bb-abcd61c6537f?shareToken=57186f4cb66382217d27914a087f364e

Hospitals are preparing to cut spending on doctors and nurses by hundreds of millions of pounds after being ordered to plug a £4.5 billion hole in the NHS budget.

That's appalling. We don't have a single team or inpatient unit that manages safe staffing levels without using high numbers of costly bank and agency staff.

Notonthestairs · 31/03/2024 11:58

To think they could have settled with the medical unions at the start, paid less in agency staff etc and got waiting lists moving in the right direction. What a waste.

DuncinToffee · 31/03/2024 12:21

It's behind paywall for me but I have read some extracts on sm

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KitKatChunki · 31/03/2024 12:30

Love that New Yorker article. So glad all of the points have been noted, I often feel like I'm in Edvard Munch pose when people try to defend everything that's stripped the country bare. Was interested in the study about Austerity and Brexit - on the march we had signs saying this and talked to quite a few people about it who didn't think there was a link. I'd like to think I gave someone an idea for research there!

Thread 40: Sunak -failure to plan, or planning to fail?
fabio12 · 31/03/2024 12:37

Best quote for the feelz of the last 14 years
"Covering British politics during this period has been like trying to remember, and explain, a very convoluted and ultimately boring dream. If you really concentrate, you can recall a lot of the details, but that doesn’t lead you closer to any meaning."

Notonthestairs · 31/03/2024 13:01

DuncinToffee · 31/03/2024 12:21

It's behind paywall for me but I have read some extracts on sm

How annoying, I only managed to read it because it was my last free article before I have to subscribe.

Notonthestairs · 31/03/2024 13:05

this really struck me -

High levels of employment and immigration, coupled with the enduring dynamism of London, mask a national reality of low pay, precarious jobs, and chronic underinvestment. The trains are late. The traffic is bad. The housing market is a joke. “The core problem is easy to observe, but it’s tough to live with,” Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of England, told me. “It’s just not that productive an economy anymore.”
With stagnant wages, people’s living standards have fallen. In 2008, Brown’s Labour government commissioned Michael Marmot, a renowned epidemiologist, to come up with ways to reduce England’s health inequalities. Marmot made suggestions in six policy areas, including better access to child care, walking and cycling programs, social-security reforms, and measures to improve people’s sense of agency at work. In 2010, he presented his ideas to the incoming Conservative-led coalition, which accepted his findings. “I thought, Wow, this is great. . . . I was pretty bullish about the whole thing,” Marmot told me. “The problem was they then didn’t do it.”
Ten years later, Marmot led a follow-up study, in which he documented stalling life expectancy, particularly among women in England’s poorest communities—and widening inequalities. “For men and women everywhere the time spent in poor health is increasing,” he wrote. “This is shocking.” According to Marmot, the U.K.’s health performance since 2010, which includes rising infant mortality, slowing growth in children, and the return of rickets, makes it an outlier among comparable European nations. “The damage to the nation’s health need not have happened,” Marmot concluded in 2020. He told me, “It was a political choice.”

Notonthestairs · 31/03/2024 13:08

As did this

So it is worth being clear: between 2010 and 2019, British public spending fell from about forty-one per cent of G.D.P. to thirty-five per cent.

Huge areas of public spending—on the N.H.S. and education—were nominally maintained. Pensions and international aid became more generous, to show that British compassion was not dead. But protecting some parts of the state meant sacrificing the rest: the courts, the prisons, police budgets, wildlife departments, rural buses, care for the elderly, youth programs, road maintenance, public health, the diplomatic corps.

Notonthestairs · 31/03/2024 13:12

It also mentions that the school contruction budgets were cut 46% between 2009 - 2022.

Funding for police forces fell by up to a quarter between 2010 -2018.

You can see the trajectory and why services are where they are.

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