Thread 39 Sunak - Government by Gaslight

[DuncinToffee]

previous thread

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/5016708-thread-38-sunak-soooo-square-one-is-an-option-then?page=40&reply=133647875

And I think MP's do well to distance themselves from Trump

x.com/Acyn/status/1769102618213638350?s=20

Trump: Now, If I don't get elected, it's gonna be a bloodbath. It's going to be a bloodbath for the country.

https://twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/1769319365801808281

More winning. The UK has experienced the largest increase in relative child poverty of any advanced economy. And there are 3.3 million children living in absolute poverty.

3.3 million children living in poverty 🥹 that alone should bring this government down.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/17/our-chances-zero-and-getting-worse-inside-a-tory-edeath-spiral

I have whiled away a happy 20 minutes playing with this map.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/openseatmap.html

That map is out of date my constituency ( which has changed ( new seat) isn't shown and the old seat shows the MP who is stepping down to win. Plus in the next seat the MP has done a chicken run to us but is still showing in his old constituency. It predicts a blue there but it is predicted to go yellow locally.
This is why I worry about the tactical voting pages, I don't think the predictions are always great.

There’s another map showing the new constituencies.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/openseatmap.html?seats=2023

I don't know if this has been shared before but there is a handy table on this website which shows the dates that dissolution needs to take place in relation to each possible polling date for the rest of this year.

There's still time for them to call it on 2nd May. I live in hope!!

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9921/

Thank you. A lot can happen in eight days.

Thanks for the updated map @BIossomtoes and thank you @LittleBowSheep. Maybe we can cling to hope for a bit longer!

I’m sticking with 2 May - purely and simply because Sunak’s so adamant that’s not the date.

Thanks @LittleBowSheep. I had read that the announcement had to be made by tomorrow for the election to be held on May 2nd.

Yes thank you very useful.
My constituency been redrawn & now in what was predominantly true blue area that table shows Labour as a predicted win, my old constituency was solid Labour with over 20,000 majority so I’m hoping it can swing we have an excellent local candidate he has been out every weekend campaigning & generally being very visible, haven’t heard who is standing for the Tories as previous incumbent retiring apparently.
Happy St.Patrick’s day everyone ☘️ it’s also my wedding anniversary today🥂

😂😂

Thing is he's usually adamant about something on Monday and has done a I turn by Tuesday.

So being adamant no general election one day and having a whole week to change his mind worries me exactly what he can do in that time.

If polling day were to be May 2, with dissolution on March 26, the general election would probably on March 21 or 22. I hope it's the 22nd as I'll be out celebrating my wedding anniversary!

I know May 2 is unlikely. But I still have hope- as Sunak is near the end of days. The stench of death is palpable.

Braverman is set to lose her seat then!

Oh good.

Itsgettingweird will be delirious with delight!

The Rwanda plan is back in Parliament

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c355971b-898d-4301-aff9-9aea31a10736?shareToken=3828bcb6dd3c43d983c74f7e16a10ff2

Very interesting. But do they have to give notice of dissolution or can they announce it and dissolve that day? At my age you'd think I'd know this!

Labour want Rishi Sunak to remain as Tory leader to boost election chances | Politics | News | Express.co.uk

"Labour want to keep Rishi Sunak in place as Prime Minister because they think he will be easier to defeat than another Tory leader at the next general election, it has been claimed. With rumours swirling of a plot to oust the PM, opposition figures have been accused of “doing all they can” to make sure he remains in the job.
They have even borrowed from the Boris Johnson playbook of political warfare to make sure their plan succeeds. During the ‘Partygate’ row in 2022 the former Prime Minister attempted to salvage his premiership with what he reportedly dubbed himself “Operation Save Big Dog”.
Instead, Labour have launched “Operation Save S* Dog” which aims to attack any potential candidate to replace him such as Kemi Badenoch or Penny Mordaunt."

I am still wondering about other dates in May. Or even June.

Ted Heath had an election on 18th June 1970. But maybe we were in a whole different political landscape then?

Been feeling slightly sad that Harriet Harman is standing down as an MP. Will be the end of an era.

But she did great things to the last including dealing with Boris Johnson. He was thoroughly odious and I was glad she was there.

True that. Hope she is still visible from now on. I also feel sad thinking of her having her retirement without Jack Dromey.