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Ukraine Invasion: Part 48

1000 replies

MagicFox · 09/03/2024 10:25

That last one went quickly! Welcome to thread 48. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

OP posts:
Thread gallery
342
DancesWithDucks · 17/03/2024 11:38

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

German intelligence services predict https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2024/03/16/7446764/ that Russia may launch an attack on NATO starting in 2026 – Business Insider
The analysis by German intelligence agencies suggests that Russia is preparing for a large-scale conflict with the West, evident from the reorganization of the Russian army, troop movements, missile deployments in the western regions, and an increase in arms production in Russia. [I think the wording of this has to be considered; translations often loose something. Personally I think this means Russia ~would have the capacity~ to launch an attack, not that it ~will~]

Macron said * that France would present Russia a ceasefire in Ukraine for the duration of the Olympic Games in Paris
The 2024 Olympics are scheduled to take place from July 26 to August 11.

Explosions are heard in Belgorod
The RVC, the Freedom of Russia Legion, and the Siberian Battalion announced that at 17:00 (16:00 Kyiv time) they would begin a massive shelling of military facilities and positions of the Russian military in Belgorod.

⚡️⚡️Russian liberation forces together with Ichkerian volunteers liberated the village of Gor'kovskii in Belgorod oblast, reports the Legion "Freedom of Russia"

🇮🇹 There will be no Italian troops in Ukraine
Defense Minister Guido Crosetto assured https://www.repubblica.it/esteri/2024/03/16/news/guido_crosetto_ucraina_putin-422320800/ that his country would not do so. He also believes that the West should "avoid making loud statements, such as sending NATO forces to Ukraine, just to try to show off."

The family of 24-year-old fixer and journalist from Ukraine Oleksandra Kuvshynova, who died in March 2022, has filed a lawsuit against the American television company Fox News
The girl died on March 14, 2022, while preparing a report in the village of Horenka, Kyiv oblast.
The lawsuit accuses the TV company of negligence, as it sent a team of journalists working under contract with Fox News to the area of active hostilities, despite numerous warnings from local officials and a security consultant who recommended against it.

Guido Crosetto: “Che errore le fughe in avanti. Se marciamo divisi a vincere è Putin”

L’intervista al ministro della Difesa. Il commento sul vertice del “triangolo di Weimar”, tra Francia, Germania e Polonia: “È sbagliato suddividere in tanti pe…

https://www.repubblica.it/esteri/2024/03/16/news/guido_crosetto_ucraina_putin-422320800

blueshoes · 17/03/2024 22:04

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-16-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • The Ukrainian State Security Service (SBU) reportedly conducted a series of successful drone strikes against three Russian oil refineries in Samara Oblast on March 16.
  • All-Russian pro-Ukrainian volunteers continue limited cross-border raids into Belgorod and Kursk oblasts.
  • Russian authorities appointed Boris Kovalchuk, the son of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s reported “personal banker” Yuri Kovalchuk, to a position within the Russian Presidential Administration.
  • Russian authorities threatened Russian election disruptors and some Russian citizens’ continued attempts to disrupt voting in the Russian presidential election on March 16.
  • Group of Seven (G7) countries issued a joint statement on March 15 warning Iran against transferring ballistic missiles or related technology to Russia.
  • Russian forces made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
  • A Russian insider source claimed on March 16 that Rosgvardia Director Viktor Zolotov revoked a reported agreement allowing former Wagner Group units to operate independently within Rosgvardia.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
DancesWithDucks · 18/03/2024 17:14

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Putin reiterates war goals, again threatens https://kyivindependent.com/putin-reiterates-war-goals-again-threatens-west-in-post-election-comments/ West in post-election comments.

Putin ‘wins’ rigged Russian election; Ukrainians in occupied territories vote at gunpoint https://kyivindependent.com/putin-crowns-himself-president-for-another-6-years-with-rigged-elections-in-russia-at-gunpoint-in-occupied-regions-of-ukraine/
The voting was neither free nor fair, with the result known in advance, writes Oleg Sukhov.

Czechia is planning to propose a ban on grain imports from Russia and Belarus into European Union countries at next week's European Council meeting, Czech Agriculture Minister Marek Vyborny said on March 17. https://kyivindependent.com/czech-republic-to-propose-russian-and-belarusian-grain-import-ban-to-the-eu/

China is considering taking part in talks on Ukraine's peace formula in the coming months, Chinese Ambassador to Switzerland Wang Shihting told Swiss newspaper Neue Zuercher Zeitung on March 18 https://kyivindependent.com/chinese-ambassador-beijing-considering-participation-in-peace-formula-summit/

⚡️WSJ: Ammunition suppliers for Czech-led initiative to aid Ukraine include https://kyivindependent.com/wsj-ammunition-suppliers-for-czech-led-initiative-to-aid-ukraine-include-russian-allies-czech-officials-say/ Russian allies, Czech officials say.
Czech President Petr Pavel said in February that Prague had identified 500,000 155 mm shells and 300,000 122 mm shells outside the European Union that could be bought and sent to Ukraine after the necessary funds were allocated to the initiative.

⚡️Deputy minister: Russia fires 7 times more https://kyivindependent.com/deputy-minister-shell-consumption-at-front-is-7-1-in-russias-favor/ shells than Ukraine.

China is on track to receive a record level of Russian oil imports for the month of March, Bloomberg reported on March 18, citing data from the analytics company Kpler. https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-china-on-track-to-receive-record-levels-of-russian-oil-imports-in-march/

Ukraine war latest: 12 Russian oil refineries reportedly hit in recent attacks by Ukraine https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-12-russian-oil-refineries-hit/

⚡️Ukrainian government allocating https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-government-allocating-128-million-for-procurement-of-attack-drones/ $128 million for procurement of attack drones.

⚡️EU gives final approval to $5.5 billion https://kyivindependent.com/eu-gives-final-approval-to-5-5-billion-for-military-aid-to-ukraine-in-2024/ for military aid to Ukraine. [previously reported, not new money]

⚡️Authorities have uncovered https://kyivindependent.com/authorities-have-uncovered-nearly-400-groups-aiding-draft-evaders-since-start-of-war/ nearly 400 networks aiding draft evaders since start of war

⚡️Ukrainian forces stop 3 Russian saboteur groups https://kyivindependent.com/border-guard-ukrainian-forces-stop-3-russian-saboteur-groups-from-advancing-in-sumy-oblast/ from advancing in Sumy Oblast.

⚡️Prosecutor General's Office: Over 128,000 victims of war crimes recorded https://kyivindependent.com/over-128-000-victims-of-war-crimes-in-ukraine/ in Ukraine

⚡️Zelensky holds call https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-holds-call-with-indonesian-president-elect-subianto/ with Indonesian President-elect Subianto, extends Peace Summit invitation.

⚡️Ukraine has adopted a plan for a series of reforms that will allow the EU to provide up to €50 billion over the next four years, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on March 18. https://kyivindependent.com/kyiv-adopts-plan-for-ukraine-facility-structural-reforms-to-be-implemented/

⚡️Mediazona confirms identities of over 47,700 Russian soldiers killed https://kyivindependent.com/mediazona-confirms-identities-of-over-47-700-russian-soldiers-killed-in-ukraine/ in Ukraine.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦

  • MAR 18, 2024

■ Combat engagements up between days
■ Equipment losses well above 7-day average, casualties below
■ Double-digit tank losses three days in a row
■ Airstrike & artillery ratios remain high however

Ukrainian forces stop 3 Russian saboteur groups from advancing in Sumy Oblast

Border guards and Ukrainian troops in Sumy Oblast stopped three groups of Russian saboteurs from advancing, Ukraine's State Border Guard Service reported on March 17.

https://kyivindependent.com/border-guard-ukrainian-forces-stop-3-russian-saboteur-groups-from-advancing-in-sumy-oblast

MagicFox · 18/03/2024 17:27

This podcast made me think that Europe has been let down by bad leadership that wasn't forward thinking enough even before 2014: podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/new-books-in-european-politics/id1618812052?i=1000646542265

OP posts:
MissConductUS · 18/03/2024 17:51

Here's a deeper dive from the WSJ on the Czech effort to secure more artillery shells for Ukraine:

In Central Europe, Czechs Go Hunting for Arms for Ukraine - As the U.S. dithers on aid, Prague is turning to Cold War Contacts to supply the ammunition Kyiv needs most

What's not clearly explained here is the fact that the Russian allies that the shells are being sourced from will be 152mm, not the 155mm NATO standard rounds. So, they must be used in Ukraine's older Russian-made artillery pieces. Attempting to fire them from a 155mm gun barrel would destroy the gun and most likely kill the crew.

Still, it's much better than no new supply at all.

DancesWithDucks · 18/03/2024 18:12

Thank you @MissConductUS

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Ukraine is running out of ammunition in Donbas. The armed forces are retreating to the second and third lines, — John Kirby, coordinator of strategic communications in the National Security Council of the White House

According to The Wall Street Journal, the European Union will likely see a significant increase in ammunition production, particularly for supplies to Ukraine, no earlier than the end of 2025 or the beginning of 2026.
European arms manufacturers are currently working to ramp up production. However, challenges such as supply chain disruptions, insufficient government funding, and labor shortages are expected to delay significant production increases until late next year or early 2026.
Officials and industry representatives note that expanding an existing ammunition plant typically takes about two years, while constructing a new one requires around five years.
Stoltenberg emphasized that the inability of NATO allies to provide Ukraine with adequate ammunition is not due to a lack of potential but rather a lack of political will.
The EU has projected that arms companies will be capable of producing 1.4 million shells per year by the end of 2024 and 2 million by the end of 2025. Until mid-last year, approximately 50% of all EU defense products were exported to third countries, excluding Ukraine.

▫️ China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs extended congratulations to Putin, expressing confidence in the continued development of relations between Russia and China.

Eurostat data reveals that last year, the EU imported 1.5 million tons of grain from Russia, surpassing pre-war levels. For instance, Spain, facing a crop failure, significantly increased its imports.
"We will advocate for grain and oil crops to be included in the list of sanctions and not permitted entry into Europe," stated Marek Výborný, the Minister of Agriculture of the Czech Republic.

According to the Financial Times, European NATO members face a shortfall of €56 billion in defense spending targets.
Countries such as Italy, Spain, and Belgium are unable to meet NATO's defense spending target of 2% of GDP, despite having high levels of public debt and budget deficits.
Germany recorded the largest deficit, spending €14 billion less on NATO defense in 2023 than required to meet the target.

EU countries will soon gain the ability to prevent Russian and Belarusian exporters from reserving infrastructure capacity for liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies, reports Bloomberg.
While pipeline natural gas supplies from Russia have reached record lows, LNG deliveries have increased. A new legislative tool, set to come into effect in a few weeks, will enable EU countries to block purchases of Russian LNG without imposing additional sanctions.
This measure empowers EU nations to temporarily prohibit Russian and Belarusian exporters from reserving infrastructure capacity necessary for LNG and natural gas transportation, safeguarding their own security interests.
Some EU member states have urged the European Commission to ensure coordinated implementation of this law to prevent supply diversion to neighboring countries.

Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Galushchenko has confirmed that Ukraine has no plans to extend the gas transit contract with Russia's Gazprom.

Construction has commenced on the largest NATO base in Europe in Romania, as reported by Euronews.
With a construction cost of 2.5 billion euros, the base will accommodate up to 10,000 soldiers. The project encompasses runways, armed platforms, hangars for military aircraft, as well as essential amenities like schools, kindergartens, shops, and a hospital.

Approximately forty Russians are slated to participate in the Summer Olympic Games in Paris, as reported by The Guardian.

Romanian President Klaus Iohannis gave his consent to the transportation of some weapons for Ukraine through the territory of Romania and to the training of Ukrainian pilots on the F-16 in a training center on the territory of the country

In recent weeks, Russian state media and online accounts linked to the Kremlin have been spreading misleading and inflammatory content about U.S. immigration and border security. This campaign appears designed to stoke outrage and division ahead of the 2024 presidential election, with experts on Russian disinformation warning that more such efforts can be expected as Putin seeks to undermine support for Ukraine and disrupt vital aid channels.

According to The Atlantic, citing sources, Russia potentially has the capability to strike Ukraine using satellite images provided by American companies.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
DesdamonasHandkerchief · 18/03/2024 18:33

In recent weeks, Russian state media and online accounts linked to the Kremlin have been spreading misleading and inflammatory content about U.S. immigration and border security. This campaign appears designed to stoke outrage and division ahead of the 2024 presidential election, with experts on Russian disinformation warning that more such efforts can be expected as Putin seeks to undermine support for Ukraine and disrupt vital aid channels.

No doubt this is also to win support for Donald 'we're gonna build a wall' Trump.

Can't believe Ukraine is running out of ammunition - this is the least their allies can do to support them.

blueshoes · 18/03/2024 18:43

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-17-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • French President Emmanuel Macron underlined the necessity for European countries to continue supporting a Ukrainian victory against Russia in order to ensure Ukrainian and European security.
  • The Ukrainian State Security Service (SBU), Special Forces (SOF), and Unmanned Systems Forces reportedly conducted a successful drone strike against a Russian oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai on the night of March 16 to 17.
  • Unspecified actors launched a drone at a military base in Transnistria, the pro-Russian breakaway republic in Moldova, on March 17 amidst an assessed ongoing Kremlin hybrid operation aimed at destabilizing Moldova from within.
  • All-Russian pro-Ukrainian volunteer forces reportedly seized a Russian administrative building in the Belgorod Oblast border area amid continued cross-border raids into Belgorod Oblast.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) signaled that it intends to protect the Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) against Ukrainian strikes and may have replaced the BSF commander as part of this effort.
  • Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and Donetsk City.
  • Russian authorities continue to militarize children in occupied Ukraine as part of efforts to Russify Ukrainian children and create a resource for Russia’s future force generation needs.

[UK Ministry of Defence Ukraine update not available yet]

DancesWithDucks · 18/03/2024 18:49

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Since the beginning of the year, Russian aviation has dropped more than 3,500 bombs on Ukrainian troops' positions. This is 16 times more than in all of 2023.

Russia may be buying detailed satellite imagery from American companies for missile strikes against Ukraine.
The Atlantic, citing sources in the Ukrainian Defense Forces, writes https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2024/03/american-satellites-russia-ukraine-war/677775/ that the Ukrainian side sees a certain trend: satellites take images of places in Ukraine to order, they are bought, and a few days or weeks later a cruise missile arrives at the photographed location. Sometimes after that, another satellite takes additional images, perhaps to check the level of damage.
The source says that the number of coincidences where photos are followed by strikes is too high to be a coincidence.
They buy the images from companies like Planet or Maxar. Russians probably order them through intermediaries. The companies themselves ensure that they carefully check their clients and do not work with the Russian Federation. Experts say that Planet and Maxar are not interested in cooperating with Russia and have good contracts with the US Department of Defense, but they are unlikely to be able to thoroughly check the customers of the images - this requires a huge resource.

Putin 'gets' 95% in Donetsk Oblast, 94% in Luhansk Oblast, 93% in Zaporizhia Oblast, and 88% in Kherson Oblast
I wonder why.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
MagicFox · 19/03/2024 09:30

Interview with Michael Kimmage and Mark Galeotti. Two good analysts -- listening now: podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/history-as-it-happens/id1548791616?i=1000646366289

OP posts:
DancesWithDucks · 19/03/2024 10:58

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Syrskyi calls unmanned systems 'priority https://kyivindependent.com/syrskyi-advance-of-unmanned-systems-use-is-priority/ seeks solutions for advantage over Russia.
"The most important task that technology and innovation must fulfill is to save the lives of our soldiers," Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said.

The European Union is planning to impose tariffs on grain imports from Russia and Belarus to appease farmers and some member states, the Financial Times (FT) reported on March 19, citing people familiar with the plans. kyivindependent.com/financial-times-eu-to-impose-tariffs-on-grain-from-russia-belarus/

⚡️Politico: Xi Jinping to visit https://kyivindependent.com/politico-xi-jinping-to-visit-france-in-may/ France in May.

⚡️ Belgium unveils $445 million defense https://kyivindependent.com/belgium-pledges-445-million-defense-aid-package-to-ukraine/ aid packages for Ukraine.

⚡️Germany, Poland to launch armored vehicles coalition https://kyivindependent.com/germany-poland-to-launch-armored-vehicles-coalition-for-ukraine-next-week/ for Ukraine next week.
Berlin and Warsaw had agreed to form an "armored vehicles coalition" to support Ukraine's defense capabilities, the Polish magazine Wprost reported on March 18, citing Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz.
The initiative, announced by Kosiniak-Kamysz following talks in Warsaw with his German counterpart, Boris Pistorius, will officially begin operations on March 26.

Towns, villages in ruin as Russia intensifies attacks on bordering Sumy Oblast https://kyivindependent.com/towns-villages-in-ruin-as-russia-intensifies-attacks-on-bordering-sumy-oblast/
Russian attacks on Ukraine's northern Sumy Oblast have left some villages resembling the ruins of Bakhmut and Marinka, officials have said, as Moscow's forces continue to escalate aerial bombardments against homes and civilian infrastructure in the area.
The unoccupied region on the Russian border but far from the actual front line has been the site of one the heaviest bombardments throughout Ukraine.

⚡️Military reports strengthening https://kyivindependent.com/military-reports-strengthening-fortifications-in-sumy-oblast/ fortifications in Sumy Oblast.
Ukrainian forces are strengthening the fortifications of the first, second, and third lines of defense in Sumy Oblast bordering Russia amid intensified attacks, Vadym Mysnyk, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian military's Northern Operational Command, told Ukrinform on March 18.

Czech President: Czech Republic trying https://kyivindependent.com/czech-president-czech-republic-trying-to-deliver-ammunition-as-quickly-as-possible/ to deliver ammunition 'as quickly as possible.'
The Czech Republic is trying to deliver ammunition to Ukraine 'as quickly as possible,' Czech President Petr Pavel said on March 18.

⚡️ Bloomberg: EU drafts proposal https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-eu-drafts-proposal-on-funneling-profits-from-russian-assets-to-ukraine/ on funneling profits from Russian assets to Ukraine.
Kyiv would get an estimated 3 billion euros ($3.3 billion) a year to boost its defense industry and purchase weapons, according to Bloomberg.

Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba is expected to visit India later this month, marking the first trip by a Ukrainian high-level official to the country since the outbreak of the full-scale war, The Hindu reported on March 19, citing an undisclosed diplomatic source. https://kyivindependent.com/media-kuleba-expected-to-visit-india-in-march/

Russians still enjoying American burgers and sandwiches as companies refuse to leave https://kyivindependent.com/russia-is-still-eating-american-burgers-and-sandwiches/
A small cohort of six American fast-food chains decided otherwise. The franchises of Carl’s Jr., Papa John’s, Costa Coffee, Burger King, and TGI Fridays have continued to operate, business as usual.

⚡️Putin holds rally https://kyivindependent.com/putin-speaks-on-red-square-glorifies-illegal-occupation-of-crimea/ on Red Square following elections, promises to continue the war.

The majority of banks in Armenia will stop accepting cards that use the Russian Mir payment system at the end of the month, the Russian state-controlled media outlet RBC reported on March 19. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-media-most-armenian-banks-to-stop-accepting-russian-mir-cards/

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson
⚡️ WAR IN

  • MAR 19, 2024
■ Improved airstrike ratio but 🇷🇺 continues to dominate when it comes to artillery strikes ■ Fewer engagements, casualties below 7-day avg ■ Equipment losses stay well above avg; double-digit tank losses four days in a row
Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
DancesWithDucks · 19/03/2024 11:08

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

According to Reuters, the cumulative emergency downtime at Russian refineries due to UAV raids has reached 3.5 million tons, a figure ten times higher than the previous two years.
The drone attacks in March paralyzed nearly a tenth of fuel production in the Russian Federation. Approximately 13% of the total capacity of primary oil refining units at Russian refineries are currently in emergency downtime mode.
The number of damaged installations has tripled, and by mid-March, the volume of emergency downtime was 1.4 times higher than planned repairs.
Considering only refineries producing gasoline and diesel fuel, the economy has lost approximately 9% of production, equivalent to 77.4 thousand tons per day.
This drop in production has led to a surge in wholesale fuel prices in Russia.

President Zelenskyy briefed influential American Senator Lindsey Graham and US Chargé d'Affaires in Ukraine Robert Needham on the battlefield situation and stressed the critical importance of US assistance.

The head of European diplomacy, Borrell, announced that the foreign ministers of EU countries have reached an agreement on imposing sanctions against Russia in response to the death of opposition figure Navalny.
Individuals included in the "blacklist" will be prohibited from entering EU countries, and their accounts in European banks will be frozen.
Poland has been a vocal advocate for sanctions following Navalny's death. Additionally, a coalition of countries led by Poland is pushing for the establishment of a new sanctions regime targeting Russia's human rights violations.

Moldovan President Sandu aims to hold a referendum on EU membership in October.
"We anticipate ongoing attacks and provocations from Russia, but I urge citizens not to be intimidated and to support the pro-European referendum, as the EU is the only option capable of ensuring peace," she emphasized.

Prosecutor General Kostin revealed that over 800 Russian cyberattacks on state institutions and services of Ukraine have been documented.
Furthermore, he stated that Russians are engaged in information operations aimed at destabilizing Ukrainian society. Additionally, they are targeting telecommunications systems in efforts to deprive citizens of access to mobile communications and the internet.

blueshoes · 19/03/2024 11:20

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-18-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin illegally annexed occupied Crimea 10 years ago, setting conditions for the full conquest of Ukraine Putin still seeks.
  • Russian occupation authorities have consistently oppressed Ukrainians on the peninsula — the same charge of which Putin accused the Ukrainian government to justify his invasion — and Russia has since militarized Crimea to support its broader territorial ambitions against Ukraine.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin is attempting to use claimed record levels of voter turnout and support for his presidential candidacy to set informational conditions for a protracted war in Ukraine.
  • Putin responded to French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent proposals to send Western troops to Ukraine by claiming that NATO personnel are already in Ukraine.
  • Putin reemphasized the idea of a “sanitary zone” in Ukraine in a manner congruent with Russian Security Council Deputy Chair Dmitry Medvedev’s recent call for the total elimination of Ukrainian statehood and absorption into the Russian Federation.
  • Putin admitted that the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian volunteer forces are comprised of Russian citizens amid the continuation of cross-border raids into Belgorod Oblast on March 18.
  • Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova baselessly accused Ukraine of conducting the reported March 17 drone strike against a military base in Transnistria, the pro-Russian breakaway republic of Moldova, likely as part of an ongoing Kremlin hybrid operation aimed at destabilizing Moldova.
  • Russian forces recently made a marginal confirmed advance in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia needs to form a veteran-led Russian “Administrative Corps” as part of the “Time of Heroes” initiative, which will incorporate Russian veterans into the Russian workforce.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
DancesWithDucks · 19/03/2024 14:57

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇪🇺🇷🇺🇧🇾 The European Union is to impose duties on grain imports from Russia and Belarus, the Financial Times reports https://www.ft.com/content/438dce75-98d4-4850-ba13-878de1614e03
This decision will be the first restriction on agricultural products from these countries since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The European Commission will set a duty of 95 euros per ton of grain, which will raise prices by at least 50%. Tariffs will also be set for oilseeds and their products.

🇧🇪🇺🇦 Belgium is preparing https://www.belganewsagency.eu/belgium-approves-additional-military-aid-for-ukraine a €412 million military aid package for Ukrainе
The package includes 300 Lynx LMV armored vehicles, artillery ammunition, and three Alkmaar-class minehunters.
Le Soir writes https://www.lesoir.be/574870/article/2024-03-15/guerre-en-ukraine-le-gouvernement-belge-approuve-trois-paquets-daide that one of the minehunters is Narcis (M923). Before that, it will undergo maintenance. Ukrainian crews will be trained by both Belgians and Dutch.

🇩🇪🇺🇦 Germany has announced a €500 million military aid package for Ukraine.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said at a press conference at the Ramstein meeting that the package would include 10,000 pieces of artillery ammunition from the Bundeswehr's stockpile, 100 pieces of armored vehicles and 100 pieces of transport.
It is also reported that the package includes 180,000 artillery shells, which are part of a Czech initiative to purchase 800,000 rounds of ammunition for Ukraine. Deliveries are scheduled to begin this summer, in about 2-3 months.
In addition, another 100,000 155 mm artillery shells were previously ordered from Germany, which are scheduled to be delivered this year.

🇪🇺 By the end of March 2024, the number of shells delivered to Ukraine within the framework of the EU initiative on one million artillery munitions for Kyiv will reach about 500 thousand, said European Commission spokesman Peter Stano

🇦🇺 The Australian broadcaster ABC aired https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-18/ukraines-war:-the-other-side/103601754 the documentary "The Ukrainian War: The Other Side". This film by British director Sean Langan covers the war through the eyes of Russians and shows their life at the front.
The Ukrainian Embassy in Australia called the film "the equivalent of a vomit bowl" that repeated Russian propaganda and historical distortions.
The Federation of Ukrainian Organizations of Australia stated that the film gave Russian soldiers a platform to justify a brutal invasion, gross lies, hatred and calls for genocide.
ABC defended the movie. The film allegedly offers the audience a glimpse into the lives of Russian soldiers and is an "important contribution" to war reporting.

Three more families with children were able to return to Ukraine from the occupied parts of Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk oblasts. The Russian occupiers threatened, intimidated, and physically abused them, but now the families are safe.

"I uncompromisingly defend those who did not violate our charter. This is a commitment to human rights [and collect big bribes] – there can be no collective guilt."
This is how Thomas Bach, President of the International Olympic Committee, commented https://www.lemonde.fr/sport/article/2024/03/19/thomas-bach-president-du-cio-l-agressivite-du-gouvernement-russe-grandit-de-jour-en-jour-contre-le-comite-contre-les-jeux-contre-moi_6222824_3242.html?lmd_medium=al&lmd_campaign=envoye-par-appli&lmd_creation=ios&lmd_source=whatsapp on the possible ban on the participation of Russian athletes in the Paris Olympics.

The self-proclaimed occupying head of Dymer village in Kyiv oblast will be imprisoned for 9 years. His property will also be confiscated.
Prosecutors proved in court that the man voluntarily agreed to cooperate with the Russians, and in early March 2022, he became the "head" of Dymer. He helped the occupiers, engaged in propaganda, was responsible for distributing "humanitarian aid" and passed on the data of Ukrainian veterans to the Russians.
The convict has been in custody since September 2022.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
Igotjelly · 19/03/2024 21:32

I see Trump has rowed back on his NATO comments and suggested he won’t pull the US out and would come to the aid of other nations so long as they ‘play fair’….. clearly been told it’s not a popular position to fuck over your so-called allies.

MagicFox · 19/03/2024 21:39

Yes, in an interview with farage! Damage has been done, no European allies will trust him now

OP posts:
Igotjelly · 20/03/2024 06:11

MagicFox · 19/03/2024 21:39

Yes, in an interview with farage! Damage has been done, no European allies will trust him now

To be honest they didn’t trust him anyway.

BringBackCoffeeCreams · 20/03/2024 07:10

Will.the tariff on Russian grain drive up food prices?

DancesWithDucks · 20/03/2024 07:45

Good question - although if the Russian grain has a tariff, there's a great country with a lot of grain to spare just south west of Russia.

MagicFox · 20/03/2024 08:48

Chatham house on Black Sea security: www.chathamhouse.org/2024/03/how-geopolitical-competition-black-sea-redefining-regional-order

OP posts:
DancesWithDucks · 20/03/2024 12:31

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

Monthly chart: Ukraine struggles to cover budget needs for 2 months https://kyivindependent.com/chart-ukraine-struggles-to-cover-budget-needs-for-2-months-in-a-row-as-foreign-financing-dwindles/ in a row as foreign financing dwindles
Ukraine received $73.6 in foreign financing from March 2022 until Dec 2023, or about $3 billion a month. While it is an enormous sum, it covered only two-thirds of Ukraine’s state budget financing needs, with the rest mostly covered by issuing domestic bonds.
The situation deteriorated sharply in 2024 with a drop in foreign funding due to uncertainty in the US and EU, which are Ukraine’s key donors.

Kyiv presented its key allies a war plan for 2024 as more military assistance have been announced during the 20th Ramstein-format meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, Ukraine's Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said on March 19. https://kyivindependent.com/umerov-after-ramstein-ukraine-presents-its-plan-for-2024-to-get-more-shells-missiles/

Shmyhal submits https://kyivindependent.com/shmyhal-submits-ukraine-reform-plan-to-european-commission/ Ukraine reform plan to European Commission.

Ukraine's recent drone attacks have knocked out about 600,000 barrels of Russia's daily oil-refining capacity, as estimated by Torbjorn Tornqvist, the director of the international energy commodities trading company Gunvor Group, Bloomberg reported on March 18. https://kyivindependent.com/gunvor-russia-has-lost-600-000-barrels-of-daily-oil-refining-capacity-due-to-drone-attacks/

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg visited Armenia for the first time during his 10 years in office and discussed the situation in the South Caucasus with the country's leadership, NATO's press service announced on March 19. https://kyivindependent.com/nato-chief-visits-armenia-amid-growing-tensions-with-russia/

⚡️ German defense minister announces aid package for Ukraine worth $540 million.
Germany's new package includes 10,000 artillery shells from the military stocks, as well as 100 armored infantry vehicles and 100 logistical vehicles, Pistorius told reporters.

The commander of the anti-Kremlin armed group Russian Volunteer Corps, "Fortune," claimed that fighting is ongoing in Russia's Belgorod Oblast and that it is continuing to take prisoners. He conceded that it had sustained losses, but nowhere near the 1,500 claimed by the Kremlin over the weekend. https://kyivindependent.com/anti-kremlin-militia-claims-fighting-ongoing-in-belgorod-oblast/

⚡️Putin orders FSB to hunt https://kyivindependent.com/putin-orders-fsb-to-hunt-russians-who-fight-for-ukraine/ Russians who fight for Ukraine.

France is calling for a curb on Ukrainian agricultural imports, joining Poland in a push that could cost Kyiv 1.2 billion euros ($1.3 billion) in trade revenue, POLITICO reported on March 19. https://kyivindependent.com/politico-france-calls-for-curb-on-ukrainian-imports/

⚡️European Commission delivers https://kyivindependent.com/european-commission-delivers-4-8-billion-to-ukraine-in-first-tranche-of-macro-financial-assistance/ $4.8 billion to Ukraine in first tranche of macro-financial assistance.

⚡️ Finland pledges https://kyivindependent.com/finland-pledges-36-million-to-czech-led-shell-initiative-for-ukraine/ $36 million to Czech-led shell initiative for Ukraine.

⚡️Canada commits https://kyivindependent.com/canada-commits-40-million-to-czech-led-initiative-for-ukraine/ nearly $30 million to Czech-led initiative for Ukraine.

⚡️Moldova expels https://kyivindependent.com/moldova-expels-russian-diplomat-after-elections-held-in-transnistria/ Russian diplomat after Russian election held in Transnistria.

⚡️Belgorod Oblast governor claims https://kyivindependent.com/belgorod-oblast-governor-orders-evacuation-of-children/ 9,000 children to be evacuated from region.

The Ukrainian Embassy in Australia on March 19 condemned the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) for broadcasting "The Other Side" on March 18, a documentary that purports to show Russia's invasion of Ukraine from the perspective of Russian soldiers. https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-embassy-condemns-documentary-broadcast-in-australia-as/

The U.S. Defense Department's Office of the Inspector General on March 19 announced that it had launched a website to track U.S. military and other assistance to Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/pentagon-launches-website-to-oversee-us-military-aid-to-ukraine/

Denys Kostev, a posterchild used by Russian authorities to promote and justify their campaign of deporting Ukrainian children, said he was coached and threatened if he did not comply, according to an investigation by Reuters released on March 19. https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-posterchild-of-russias-ukrainian-children-deportation-program-says-he-was-threatened/

⚡️ Austin in Ramstein: 'Russia has paid a staggering cost https://kyivindependent.com/austin-in-ramstein/ for Putin's imperial dreams.'
"Russia has paid a staggering cost for Putin's imperial dreams. At least 315,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded since Putin's all-out invasion in February 2022" "Russia has squandered up to $211 billion to equip, deploy, maintain, and sustain its imperial aggression against Ukraine."

⚡️ Russian, Belarusian athletes barred https://kyivindependent.com/prosecutors-office-russian-attack-on-kupiansk-wounded-policeman/ from Paris Olympics opening ceremony.

⚡️Trump says US won't leave https://kyivindependent.com/trump-says-us-wont-leave-nato-if-member-states-play-fair/ NATO if member states 'play fair.' [Oh, he opened his mouth again].

Ragnar Gudmundsson
WAR IN #UKRAINE - MAR 20, 2024
■ Strike ratios stay high; 7-day average ofartillery strikes at a record low
■ Combat engagements above average but casualties below it
■ Modest landbased equipment losses but drone losses well above average

Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
DancesWithDucks · 20/03/2024 16:52

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

🇪🇺 European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is set to unveil proposals on Wednesday that will reshape the EU's approach to accepting new members, reports Politico.
Under the new approach, instead of the current all-or-nothing stance, Brussels aims to gradually ease the accession process for countries such as Ukraine, Moldova, and the Western Balkans. This strategy would enable these countries to access some of the benefits of EU membership without waiting for years or decades to complete necessary reforms.

German Defense Minister Pistorius has announced that Berlin will cover the cost of 180,000 shells as part of the Czech initiative to supply artillery ammunition for Ukraine.

President of the Czech Republic, Petr Pavel, has stated that in the near future, European companies will be capable of producing the necessary amount of ammunition, both for their own needs and for Ukraine.

The International Olympic Committee (IOC) has accused Russia of politicizing sports with its plans to host the summer and winter Friendship Games
"The Russian government has initiated an intense diplomatic campaign, involving government delegations and ambassadors worldwide. To underscore their purely political motives, they deliberately bypass sports organizations in target countries. This flagrantly violates the Olympic Charter and various UN resolutions, constituting a cynical attempt by Russia to politicize sports."
"The Russian government also demonstrates complete disregard for global anti-doping standards and competition integrity. This is the same government implicated in the systematic doping program during the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics and subsequent manipulation of anti-doping data."

🇱🇺An agreement on technical and financial cooperation was signed with Luxembourg's Foreign Minister Xavier Bettel during the Ukrainian government team's visit to Luxembourg.

Putin has announced the construction of a railroad from Mariupol to Crimea.
Russia wants to make this railroad an alternative to the Crimean bridge: it will simplify military logistics and reduce the dependence of the Russian army on it, the Mariupol City Council reports.

Fears of loud sounds and aircraft noises, grieving, depression and stigmatization by Russian peers based on Ukrainian accent and origin. This is exactly what Russian-kidnapped and transferred Ukrainian children keep living through every single day based on the Meduza investigation. https://t.me/United24media/19839 Russian students are pumped up with toxic propaganda calling Ukrainians ‘neonazis’ and ‘fascists’. That’s why children from Ukraine are often beaten and bullied after being enrolled into Russian schools.
The Kremlin released a specific manual teaching competent bodies and organizations of how to deal with it to transform their identity into the Russian one. Russian officials keep convincing illegally deported children from Ukraine that none will come after them and they should forget their homeland. In case a child's parents or relatives are missing it’s talked into believing they are dead even if it’s not proven.

Due to pressure from US sanctions, Emirates NBD, the main state-owned bank in Dubai, has closed its Russian division along with numerous Russian accounts, including those of Russian oligarchs and oil traders, as reported by The Wall Street Journal.

During its nearly two years of operation, the Contact Group on Defense of Ukraine in the Ramstein format has facilitated the allocation of over $88 billion to support Ukraine in the security sphere, announced Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin.

Pentagon launches website to track US weapons and equipment provided to Ukraine — The Hill.
The Pentagon's inspector general said in a statement that the website provides resources and information about the work more than 20 US oversight agencies — known collectively as the Ukraine Oversight Interagency Working Group — are doing to ensure Ukraine aid is not being misused.
The website also includes contact information to report any allegations of fraud, waste or misuse related to Ukraine aid.
It also has fact sheets about how much the US has provided in aid to Ukraine since Russia invaded the country in 2022 — $113.4 billion — along with details about oversight projects from agencies tasked with ensuring against the misuse of weapons.

Former British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace has stated that the possibility of British troops participating in the war in Ukraine "cannot be ruled out," as reported by the Daily Mail.
Furthermore, he advocated for establishing a minimum level of defense spending at 3% of GDP

Canada has completed the ratification of the updated Free Trade Agreement with Ukraine.
In the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the introduction of American armored personnel carriers M1117 has been announced.
A total of 250 M1117s were included in a US aid package announced on November 4, 2022, totaling $400 million. This package also included 45 T-72 tanks, 1,110 Phoenix Ghost drones, river boats, missile repairs for the MIM-23 HAWK air defense system, communication systems, and marking equipment, among other items.

British intelligence has revealed unsuccessful attempts by the Russian Federation to camouflage planes and ships. Camouflage efforts include the use of airplane models and tires placed on the wings of aircraft. Additionally, painted silhouettes of aircraft gliders have been observed at 9 Russian airbases. [and other techniques have been observed. The question does arise - how many camoflage attempt have been successful and undetected?]

Russia is nearing completion of a military port in the unrecognized region of Abkhazia, as reported by TV Pirveli.
The port, situated in Ochamchir, is designed to accommodate warships and is currently undergoing continuous construction efforts.

UNITED24Media

Fears of loud sounds and aircraft noises, grieving, depression and stigmatization by Russian peers based on Ukrainian accent and origin. This is exactly what Russian-kidnapped and transferred Ukrainian children keep living through every single day base...

https://t.me/United24media/19839

DancesWithDucks · 20/03/2024 17:09

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Pentagon chief: Ukraine's survival is at risk
Ukraine's survival is at risk today, as is America's security, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told after the meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) being held at Ramstein Air Base in Germany.

Zelensky: Russia has launched 130 missiles of various types, more than 320 Shahed attack drones and almost 900 guided bombs in attacks on Ukraine so far this month

🇽🇰 Partially recognized Kosovo will transfer mortar rounds to Ukraine
Kosovo's Defense Minister Ejup Maqedonci added https://x.com/ejupmaqedonci/status/1770119455265214889?s=46&t=hmPdh3epcvbnoUN2TQsSDw that trucks and armored vehicles would be sent to Ukraine next week, but did not specify the quantity.
This is the second military aid to Ukraine from Kosovo since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion.

Putin calls on FSB to hunt Russians who joined Ukraine’s army
According to Politico https://www.politico.eu/article/putin-fsb-hunt-russians-joined-ukraine-army/ Putin has instructed his security services to seek out and take action against Russians who have enlisted in Ukraine's army. [I hope they have no families who are traceable :/]

The border of the Russian Belgorod Oblast is becoming similar to the destroyed Donbas
The RVC showed an unsuccessful assault on the building by a group of Russian armed forces – one of the Russians blew up his own partner with a grenade, and then they were "interfered by" FPV drones. Eventually, they retreated. https://t.me/liveukraine_media/19319

🇲🇩🇲🇩 Moldova said https://newsmaker.md/rus/novosti/eto-montazh-nikakogo-vzryva-ne-bylo-glava-mvd-adrian-efros-ob-intsidente-v-tiraspole/ that there was no explosion at the military base in Tiraspol (TMR) on March 17, and that the video of the Mi-8 helicopter explosion that was circulating was a video montage.

This young family from Odesa oblast is expecting their next child soon. Their home was ruined in a Russian attack.
The family found out they were having a girl on the debris of their home. https://t.me/liveukraine_media/19274

Live: Ukraine

This young family from Odesa oblast is expecting their next child soon. Their home was ruined in a Russian attack. The family found out they were having a girl on the debris of their home. The mom wrote, "We waited so much for this! But in different...

https://t.me/liveukraine_media/19274

DancesWithDucks · 20/03/2024 18:33

Armenia / Azerbijan look like an increasingly hot problem.

blueshoes · 20/03/2024 19:42

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-19-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin presented the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) as a key guarantor of Russian security and sovereignty following his victory in the Russian presidential election, likely signaling that Russian security services and siloviki will continue to represent his core constituency in his fifth presidential term.
  • Russia continues efforts to build a coalition to counterbalance the West by pursuing bilateral relationships with Iran, North Korea, and China.
  • Armenia's Central Bank will reportedly ban the use of Russia’s “Mir” national payment system to prevent Armenia from falling under secondary US sanctions.
  • Pro-Russian actors in Moldova are continuing efforts to support wider Kremlin hybrid efforts to destabilize Moldova.
  • Ukraine’s European partners continue efforts to stand up significant initiatives to provide military support to Ukraine.
  • The Russian military confirmed that Northern Fleet Commander Admiral Alexander Moiseev replaced Admiral Nikolai Yevmenov as acting Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy.
  • Russian forces recently made a confirmed advance near Avdiivka on March 19.
  • Russian State Duma Defense Committee Chairman Andrei Kartapolov stated on March 19 that the Russian military will not increase the number of conscripts summoned during the upcoming semi-annual spring conscription cycle in comparison to the previous fall 2023 conscription cycle.
  • Kremlin officials continue to implicate themselves directly in the illegal removal of Ukrainian children to other Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine and the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
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