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Ukraine Invasion: Part 48

1000 replies

MagicFox · 09/03/2024 10:25

That last one went quickly! Welcome to thread 48. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

OP posts:
Thread gallery
342
blueshoes · 15/03/2024 12:24

MagicFox · 15/03/2024 07:12

Can I say I am in love with Macron? That was a towering interview by a statesman, defending his position for a whole 30 minutes. Even quoting Churchill. He is absolutely right, of course.

[Interesting use of AI translation]

blueshoes · 15/03/2024 12:25

MagicFox · 15/03/2024 11:39

Russia has hit Odesa this morning. I wonder if this is some kind of signal to Macron as he's mentioned Odesa explicitly. Probably over reading it. It's all so bloody awful

Oh oh this is devastating ... again 😓

blueshoes · 15/03/2024 12:48

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-14-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev posted a detailed call for the total elimination of the Ukrainian state and its absorption into the Russian Federation under what he euphemistically called a “peace formula.” Medvedev’s demands are not novel but rather represent the Kremlin’s actual intentions for Ukraine—intentions that leave no room for negotiations for purposes other than setting the precise terms of Ukraine’s complete capitulation.
  • Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on March 14 that unspecified Ukrainian units that have been deployed to frontline for a long time have started rotations.
  • Russian forces may be currently committing tactical and operational reserves to fighting in eastern Ukraine in an effort to maintain and potentially intensify the tempo of ongoing Russian offensive operations.
  • The Russian ability to make significant gains is still dependent on the level of Western support for Ukraine, however, and continued delays in Western security assistance will increase the risk of operationally significant Russian gains in the long run.
  • Reported Russian transfers of tactical reserves to new areas of the frontline demonstrate Russia’s likely ability to dynamically balance and reweight their offensive efforts.
  • British outlet The Times reported on March 14 that the British government believes that Russia deliberately jammed the satellite signal on a plane carrying British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps back to the UK from Poland.
  • Continued limited raids from Ukrainian territory into Russian border regions will likely force the Kremlin to choose between paying a reputational or resource cost in responding to the incursions.
  • The Kremlin must choose a balance between acceptable reputational and resource costs, but the Kremlin may not suffer as high a reputational cost in 2024 as it did in 2023 due to ongoing censorship efforts.
  • Russian forces advanced west of Avdiivka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast amid continued positional engagements across the theater on March 14.
  • Russian regional governments have reportedly increased economic incentives for Russian volunteers to sign contracts for military service.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
DesdamonasHandkerchief · 15/03/2024 12:59

From The Telegraph, Russia's free and fair elections start in earnest:

Russian voters have set fire to polling booths and sprayed ink in ballot boxes as voting gets under way in the presidential election.
Multiple videos have surfaced online of protestors pouring ink into ballot boxes and even setting them alight, including in the capital, Moscow.
In one video a woman is seen pouring a flammable liquid on a polling booth before setting it on fire. In each of the videos, the women pull out their phones to record the incident before they are detained.
It comes as Russia has arrested at least seven people for vandalism at polling stations amid widespread reports of voter coercion as Kremlin officials threaten protest voters with imprisonment.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 15/03/2024 12:59

Also:

Russia using dead soldiers to vote for Putin in election, Ukraine claims
Moscow plans to mark ballot papers with the names of dead soldiers in order to boost Vladimir Putin’s support in the Russian elections, Ukrainian defence intelligence (DIU) has said.
“The Russian ‘election commissions’ will try to increase the number of Putin’s voters by attracting the so-called ‘dead souls’ to the ‘voting’,” the department posted on Telegram. “They plan to add also those who recently died, went missing or were captured.”
The department’s assessment is based on instructions from Russia’s electoral commission, which, it says, permit military personnel to vote in absentia without presenting any identification documents.
The DIU’s warning comes amid widespread reports of voter coercion as Kremlin officials predict a landslide victory for Putin after polls close on Sunday.

notimagain · 15/03/2024 13:47
  • British outlet The Times reported on March 14 that the British government believes that Russia deliberately jammed the satellite signal on a plane carrying British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps back to the UK from Poland.

TBH some of the UK press are painting is as some sort of dastardly act aimed at the Defence Secretary , but I'm not sure Grant Shapps was singled out for special treatment...

Having read various reports, including the one in the Times, it sounds like the (unfortunately) absolutely routine jamming of GPS that's been going on for a while across parts of Scandinavia and other parts of the world such as the eastern Med......i.e. anywhere near where the Russians are involved in military activity..

In those sorts of areas it's been causing difficulties at times for civilian aviation and shipping for a while now, hardly a squeak outside of the specialist press.......

Def Sec and accompanying press pack suddenly experience the problem and it's portrayed as not far off being an act of war by some in the MSM.

Februaryfeels · 15/03/2024 13:52

MagicFox · 15/03/2024 11:39

Russia has hit Odesa this morning. I wonder if this is some kind of signal to Macron as he's mentioned Odesa explicitly. Probably over reading it. It's all so bloody awful

Evil

Double tap attacks to kill the maximum number of civilians

Savage

DancesWithDucks · 15/03/2024 14:11

“The Russian ‘election commissions’ will try to increase the number of Putin’s voters by attracting the so-called ‘dead souls’ to the ‘voting’,

With slight hysteria, I wonder if the electoral voting stations will come with little white red and blue ouiji boards?

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 15/03/2024 15:09

Drat you, I have just snorted milk down my nose!

MissConductUS · 15/03/2024 15:20

notimagain · 15/03/2024 13:47

  • British outlet The Times reported on March 14 that the British government believes that Russia deliberately jammed the satellite signal on a plane carrying British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps back to the UK from Poland.

TBH some of the UK press are painting is as some sort of dastardly act aimed at the Defence Secretary , but I'm not sure Grant Shapps was singled out for special treatment...

Having read various reports, including the one in the Times, it sounds like the (unfortunately) absolutely routine jamming of GPS that's been going on for a while across parts of Scandinavia and other parts of the world such as the eastern Med......i.e. anywhere near where the Russians are involved in military activity..

In those sorts of areas it's been causing difficulties at times for civilian aviation and shipping for a while now, hardly a squeak outside of the specialist press.......

Def Sec and accompanying press pack suddenly experience the problem and it's portrayed as not far off being an act of war by some in the MSM.

I just wanted to add my agreement and point out that, like most electronic warfare, large-scale GPS jamming isn't directional, so it can't be aimed at a particular target like Sharp's aircraft.

The Russians have a roughly equivalent system called GLONASS

GLONASS - Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GLONASS

blueshoes · 15/03/2024 15:43

DancesWithDucks · 15/03/2024 14:11

“The Russian ‘election commissions’ will try to increase the number of Putin’s voters by attracting the so-called ‘dead souls’ to the ‘voting’,

With slight hysteria, I wonder if the electoral voting stations will come with little white red and blue ouiji boards?

Grin Sadly even those boards will be rigged.

MagicFox · 15/03/2024 16:26

DancesWithDucks · 15/03/2024 14:11

“The Russian ‘election commissions’ will try to increase the number of Putin’s voters by attracting the so-called ‘dead souls’ to the ‘voting’,

With slight hysteria, I wonder if the electoral voting stations will come with little white red and blue ouiji boards?

Maybe Prighozin will come back with his new underworld army of businessmen who fell out of windows and make the difference!

OP posts:
MissConductUS · 15/03/2024 17:38

This was in today's Telegraph. 😁

Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
blueshoes · 15/03/2024 18:24

@MissConductUS hehe 😂

blueshoes · 15/03/2024 18:35

Ukraine could do with more cars for humanitarian, medical and defence purposes, so well done whoever made this happen.

FT article: https://www.ft.com/content/90afe2eb-5796-4ce6-8af7-b368b4210450

London’s non-Ulez compliant cars to be sent to UkraineAid programme will be part of vehicle scrappage scheme

Owners of cars in London which do not comply with the capital’s <a class="break-all" href="https://archive.is/o/zO4e8/www.ft.com/content/09f19854-8054-4b99-8d7e-ccd0e53db379" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">utra low emission zone (Ulez) standards will be able to send their cars to Ukraine from today, to support the country’s humanitarian and medical needs.

In an initiative by Transport for London, British-Ukrainian Aid (Bua) and the Embassy of Ukraine, applicants to the Ulez <a class="break-all" href="https://archive.is/o/zO4e8/www.ft.com/content/09f19854-8054-4b99-8d7e-ccd0e53db379" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">scrappage scheme can donate their vehicle in exchange for the same payment they would otherwise have received.

The vehicles will be used for transporting vulnerable populations, medical personnel and aid. Ukraine’s <a class="break-all" href="https://archive.is/o/zO4e8/www.ft.com/content/d2f3b209-22a1-4fb1-bdfe-0ccf7fb0e5fa" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">infrastructure has been badly damaged since the start of the Russian invasion in March 2022, with access to healthcare impaired as a result.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 15/03/2024 20:51

20 Days I'm Mariupol available to watch on Channel 4 in the U.K. this evening.

WinterMorn · 15/03/2024 21:01

I watched this earlier this week. It’s very good and should be compulsory viewing for all the fence sitters and propagandists.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 15/03/2024 21:13

I totally agree Wintermorn, everyone who isn't Ukrainian should be forced to watch this documentary- starting with every russian.

MrTiddlesTheCat · 16/03/2024 07:11

I watched it a few weeks ago and was filled with rage all over again.

DancesWithDucks · 16/03/2024 10:34

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Update: 73 injured https://kyivindependent.com/russian-missile-attack-on-odesa-results-in-casualties-governor-says/ 19 killed in Russian missile attack on Odesa.
Sixteen people have been confirmed as killed. This included Odesa's former deputy mayor Serhii Tetiukhin and Oleksandr Hostishchev, the commander of the police special forces battalion Tsunami, according to local council member Andrii Vagapov.

The leaders of Germany, France, and Poland agreed on new initiatives in support of Kyiv, including more weapons purchases and a future coalition on rocket artillery, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz reportedly said on March 15 following a Weimar Triangle meeting in Berlin. https://kyivindependent.com/scholz-vows-more-arms-purchases-new-initiatives-for-ukraine/

⚡️Russian torture of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) is “widespread and systematic” and shows a “blatant disregard for human dignity,” a report from a United Nations commission of inquiry on Ukraine said on March 15. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-torture-of-ukrainian-pows-widespread-and-systematic-un-commission-says/

Ukraine will receive 4.5 billion euros ($4.9 billion) from the European Union through its four-year Ukraine Facility program next week https://kyivindependent.com/eu-to-transfer-4-5-billion-euros-to-ukraine/

The European Commission allocated 500 million euros (around $544 million) to increase the EU's ammunition production capacity to 2 million shells per year by the end of 2025, the commission's press service announced on March 15. https://kyivindependent.com/eu-allocates-544-million-to-ramp-up-ammunition-production/

⚡️Portugal pledges $109 million https://kyivindependent.com/portugal-pledges-109-million-to-czech-shell-initiative-for-ukraine/ to Czech-led shell initiative for Ukraine.

⚡️Media: Fiala didn't disclose details on Czech-led shell initiative for Ukraine https://kyivindependent.com/media-7/ in Fico's presence.
Czech PM Petr Fiala allegedly feared that strategic information about ammunition for Ukraine could leak to Russia through Slovak PM Robert Fico, Aktualne reported.

⚡️UN Security Council to meet over https://kyivindependent.com/un-security-council-to-meet-over-russias-illegal-election-in-occupied-ukrainian-territories/ Russia's illegal election in occupied Ukrainian territories.

⚡️ Sweden to supply Ukraine with 9 coastguard watercraft. https://kyivindependent.com/sweden-to-provide-ukraine-with-coastguard-hydrocycles/

Seizing Russian assets to cover the costs of aid for Ukraine's war effort is gaining traction among U.S. Republicans, Bloomberg reported on March 15. https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-republicans-warming-to-idea-of-using-frozen-russian-assets-to-fund-ukraine/

⚡️ Media: Greece plans to purchase ammunition https://kyivindependent.com/media-greece-wants-to-arm-ukraine-through-czechia/ for Ukraine through Czechia.
Athens told EU officials that it could supply Ukraine with extensive ammunition stocks through Czechia this year, including 90,000 90 mm projectiles, 180 70 mm anti-tank projectiles, 2,000 127 mm Zuni rockets, and 4 million bullets, Kathimerini said.

The governor of Russia's Samara Oblast reported on March 16 that two Rosneft oil refineries in the area were targeted by Ukrainian drones, resulting in no casualties but leaving one facility on fire. https://kyivindependent.com/fire-reported-at-russias-syzran-oil-refinery/ [apparently a big fire, too]

⚡️G7 leaders call on Iran not to supply Russia with missiles.https://kyivindependent.com/iranian-missiles/ [I'm sure Iran will stop right now]

House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson said in an interview with Politico on March 14 that he expects to take up the Ukraine aid bill with Democratic votes, adding that splitting Ukraine and Israel aid into two separate bills was "under consideration." https://kyivindependent.com/politico-johnson-expects-to-pass-long-obstructed-ukraine-aid-package-with-democratic-votes/

⚡️ Zelensky: Ukraine to strike Russia's 'weakest spots https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-ukraine-to-strike-enemys-weakest-spots-with-drones/ with drones.
Ukraine had identified Russia's "weakest spots" for future drone attacks, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on March 15 after meetings with top military and security officials.

⚡️ Ukrainian intelligence 'hacking https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-intelligence-hacking-russian-online-voting-systems/ Russian online voting systems.'
Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) said it is hacking online voting systems in Russia as the first day of the country's presidential election got underway on March 15.

⚡️ SBU has repelled almost 10,000 cyberattacks since 2022. https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-cuts-supply-of-components-for-russian-drones-missiles/

⚡️Minister: Greece joins https://kyivindependent.com/minister-greece-joins-international-coalition-for-demining-in-ukraine/ international coalition for demining in Ukraine.

⚡️New-type military recruitment center, reportedly independent from enlistment offices, to open https://kyivindependent.com/new-type-military-recruitment-center-to-open-in-zaporizhzhia/ in Zaporizhzhia.

⚡️Russian governor claims https://kyivindependent.com/russian-governor-claims-2-killed-in-attack-on-belgorod/ 2 killed in missile attack on Belgorod.

⚡️ Russia recruits more foreign mercenaries https://kyivindependent.com/russia-recruits-more-foreign-mercenaries-to-fight-at-war-ukraine-says/ to fight in war, Ukraine says.
Russia has been recruiting foreigners from such countries as Nepal, Somalia, India, Cuba, and others to fight in Ukraine from the very beginning of the full-scale invasion.

⚡️Der Spiegel: German FM Annalena Baerbock is trying to persuade Scholz (https://kyivindependent.com/der-spiegel-german-fm-is-trying-to-persuade-scholz-to-hand-over-taurus-missiles-to-ukraine/ to hand over Taurus missiles to Ukraine. [Anna Baerbock is one kick-ass woman. If she was in charge in Germany, the Taurus would have been there long ago]

⚡️Government approves Ukrainian language development program https://kyivindependent.com/government-approves-ukrainian-language-development-program-until-2030/ until 2030.

⚡️Kyiv Metro head resigns after journalistic investigation exposes his alleged financial misconduct. https://kyivindependent.com/kyiv-metro-director-submits-his-resignation-after-investigation/

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦

  • MAR 16, 2024
■ Airstrike ratio remains high, artillery one at a record level ■ High casualties & increased equipment losses ■ Tank, APV & artillery losses above 7-day average ■ KIU: +44 officers; 6.7 per day in the last four weeks (!)
Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
DancesWithDucks · 16/03/2024 12:51

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The Washington Post reports that due to political dysfunction in Washington, US aid to Ukraine will be allocated too late to prevent disaster. The Biden administration fears that in the best-case scenario, numerous lives may already be lost this year, while in the worst case, the front line could collapse.
According to the article, Ukrainian politicians have informed European and American officials that ammunition for some of their air defense systems could be nearly depleted by the end of March. [may you ROT Johnson!]

According to analysis conducted by German intelligence services, Russia is undergoing significant military reorganization, troop movements, and missile deployments in its western regions, accompanied by increased weapons production. This indicates preparations for a large-scale conflict with the West.
Business Insider reports that German intelligence suggests there is a possibility of Russia launching an attack on at least part of NATO's territory, such as the Baltic states or Finland, starting from 2026. It's important to note that these assessments have not been publicly confirmed by German services.

Scholz announced that proceeds from frozen Russian assets would be allocated to support Ukraine during a press conference in Berlin.
Furthermore, the German Chancellor revealed plans to establish a coalition of Ukrainian allies for the procurement of long-range weapons.

Portugal has committed to allocating €100 million to support the Czech initiative aimed at purchasing shells for Ukraine.
This contribution adds to the funds previously pledged by countries such as Sweden, Norway, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Denmark, Canada, France, and Belgium. According to reports from the Financial Times, Prague aims to raise a total of $1.5 billion for the ammunition purchase initiative. [last summary was that they were at about 300,000 but significantly more money has come in since]

NATO members perceive Putin's nuclear threats as a tactic to divert attention from the conflict in Ukraine. Nevertheless, this rhetoric has prompted alliance leaders to enhance their nuclear capabilities, reports Foreign Policy. [Oh, the Russia effect. Just like they've managed to expand NATO]

Ukraine is preparing to create a new branch of the military: The Drone Forces. One of the prototypes is the 411 Separate UAV Batallion, also called the 411 HAWKS. Founded a year ago, the Hawks are one of the first to work exclusively with drones, from standard FPVs to large bombers

The Security Service of Ukraine has successfully halted deliveries of components for the Shahed UAVs and cruise missiles. Head of the Department of Cyber Security, Vityuk, disclosed that cyber specialists intercepted the supply of materials, preventing the production of 1,600 Shaheds and 4,000 microcircuits for cruise missiles.
Additionally, Vityuk highlighted that cyber specialists are actively engaged on the front lines, targeting the enemy's electronic warfare and reconnaissance systems, and intercepting enemy drones responsible for coordinating missile and artillery strikes against Ukrainian defense forces.

On the first day of the presidential vote in Russia, numerous violations and incidents were reported at polling stations:
▫️ Observers in Moscow documented several instances of voters being photographed with ballots, presumably for some form of reporting.
▫️ A suspicious stack of ballots was captured on camera, with one ballot box containing neatly stacked ballots, raising concerns.
▫️ Ballot boxes in Moscow and the Voronezh region were observed to be filled with green ballots.
▫️ An elderly resident of Moscow set fire to a voting booth in the capital.
▫️ In Khanty-Mansiysk, volunteer Polina Zmanovskaya, who was conducting an exit poll for the Civil Initiative party (which nominated the sole anti-war candidate Boris Nadezhdin), was detained near a polling station.
▫️ In Kamchatka, the turnout at polling stations in the first 7 hours of voting was reported to be 25%, while electronic voting saw nearly 80% turnout, according to the local election commission. Abnormally high turnout rates were also noted in other Far Eastern regions, with nearly 30% voting in the Sakhalin region and 38% in Magadan by 3:00 PM local time.

Around 800 Russians who lack the legal right to remain in Latvia will be deported, announced Madara Puke, a representative of the Migration Department.

Ukrainian teaching officers have successfully completed a training course with American instructors, focusing on maneuver warfare and rapid decision-making.
The course, which centered on the Military Decision Making Process (MDMP), took place at a military educational institution. I

🛒 Household appliance manufacturers such as Electrolux, Tefal, Braun, and Rowenta have begun actively restricting product deliveries to Russia through parallel imports, including sales on Kommersant marketplaces.
Additionally, the list of products exempt from intellectual property protection requirements in Russia has expanded to include brands producing pumps, fans, and compressors (Soler & Palau, Vortice, Air System), mining equipment (Dewalt, Epiroc, Husqvarna), as well as cosmetics, perfumery, and clothing.

According to the Associated Press, tens of thousands of people gathered in Budapest, Hungary's capital, to protest against Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's government.

The Ukrainian national team secured 79 medals at the US Air Force and Marine Corps Trials held in Las Vegas, as reported by Suspilne.

A house in Lviv 8 months after a Russian missile hit, which killed 10 people

Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
DancesWithDucks · 16/03/2024 13:08

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Even Gerasimov appeared today at the "elections in Russia"
This is his first public appearance in a long time https://t.me/liveukraine_media/19140

🇩🇪The media has learned https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/deutschland/militaer-verteidigung/id_100364946/taurus-debatte-olaf-scholz-liefert-wirklich-keine-marschflugkoerper.html the main reason why Germany is not transferring Taurus to Ukraine
The main problem pointed out by Bundeswehr Inspector General Carsten Breuer during his speech at a special meeting of the parliamentary defense committee was that the effective use of this missile requires a huge amount of data and a special computer system that only the Bundeswehr has.
If Germany were to transfer Taurus to Ukraine, it would no longer have access to these systems and would significantly undermine its defense capabilities, t-online writes, citing participants in the meeting. The details of this system are classified, so the interlocutors of the publication could not even estimate how long it would take Berlin to restore it.
At the same time, t-online points out, that it is possible to provide Kyiv with these missiles in a "stripped-down" form, without a guidance system. In this case, the Taurus would serve as a complement to the less powerful British Storm Shadow cruise missiles, the publication adds.

🇺🇦All residents of 22 border settlements in Sumy oblast, Ukraine, have been evacuated
In total, more than 4,500 people have already evacuated from the dangerous areas of the region. The security situation is most acute in the Velykopysarivska community of Okhtyrka district, where more than 180 residents have left over the past 3 days.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
blueshoes · 16/03/2024 16:59

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-15-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • Russian forces will likely continue ongoing offensive efforts to destabilize Ukrainian defensive lines in Spring 2024 while also preparing for a forecasted new offensive effort in Summer 2024. The provision of Western security assistance will likely play a critical role in Ukraine’s ability to hold territory now and to repel a new Russian offensive effort in the coming months.
  • Well-provisioned Ukrainian forces have shown that they can prevent Russian forces from making even marginal gains during large-scale Russian offensive efforts, and there is no reason to doubt that Ukraine could further stabilize the frontline and prepare for repelling the reported Russian offensive effort this summer if materiel shortages abated.
  • The threat of significant Russian gains in the coming months does not mean that there is no threat of Russian forces making such gains through offensive operations this spring.
  • Pressing shortages in air defense systems and missiles will likely dramatically reduce Ukraine’s ability to defend against Russian strikes both in rear and frontline areas in the coming weeks if not addressed rapidly.
  • Russian forces have shown the capacity to adapt to fighting in Ukraine and will likely aim to scale lessons learned from the war in Ukraine to ongoing efforts to prepare the Russian military for a potential long-term confrontation with NATO.
  • Senior European officials stressed that a Russian victory in Ukraine would result in Russia posing a strategic threat to NATO security.
  • Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev questioned the sovereignty of Latvia, a NATO member state, and threatened Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs following Medvedev’s March 14 call for the total elimination of Ukraine and Ukraine's absorption into Russia under Medvedev's “peace formula.”
  • French President Emmanuel Macron stated on March 15 that he is not ruling out sending Western troops to Ukraine but that the current situation does not require it.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed continued limited raids from Ukrainian territory into Russia’s border region on March 15.
  • Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike against a Russian oil refinery in Kaluga Oblast, and recent Ukrainian strikes against oil refineries reportedly caused a spike in Russian domestic oil prices.
  • Several Russians made limited attempts to disrupt the first day of voting in the Russian presidential election on March 15.
  • Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kupyansk and Avdiivka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
  • Ukrainian Treatment of Prisoners of War Coordinating Headquarters Representative Petro Yatsenko stated that Russia has intensified its efforts to recruit military personnel from abroad.
  • Ukrainian sources and Russian opposition media reported that occupation officials continue coercive efforts to artificially inflate voter turnout and perceptions of support for Russian President Vladimir Putin in occupied Ukraine.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
DancesWithDucks · 17/03/2024 11:06

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️WP: Ukraine may be forced to aim to down only 1 in 5 missiles targeting cities https://kyivindependent.com/washington-post-ukraine-missiles-targeting-cities/ due to ammunition shortage.

After Russia claimed on March 16 that it killed up to 300 Ukrainian soldiers using a so-called "vacuum bomb," a spokesperson for the military intelligence of Ukraine (HUR) told CNN that the claims were "absolute nonsense and propaganda." https://kyivindependent.com/cnn-ukraine-dismisses-russian-claim-that-russia-killed-hundreds-of-soldiers-with-a-vacuum-bomb/

⚡️UPDATE: Death toll of Russian attack on Odesa rises https://kyivindependent.com/russian-missile-attack-on-odesa-results-in-casualties-governor-says/ to 21.

⚡️Politico: Finnish FM does not rule out https://kyivindependent.com/politico-finnish-fm-does-not-rule-out-sending-western-troops-to-ukraine/ sending Western troops to Ukraine.

⚡️ EU pressures European importers to cut down Russian LNG purchases https://kyivindependent.com/eu-pressures-domestic-importers-to-cut-russian-lng-purchases/ in 2024.

⚡️UK Defense Secretary Grant Shapps' scheduled visit to Odesa was canceled after U.K. intelligence officials informed him that Moscow was aware of his travel plans.https://kyivindependent.com/media-uk-defense-secretary-canceled-planned-odesa-visit-due-to-russian-threat/

⚡️Budanov: Ukraine https://kyivindependent.com/budanov/ to continue to support anti-Kremlin militias.
Ukraine's military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said on March 16 on national television that anti-Kremlin militias were becoming "a force" and Ukraine would help them in their operations on Russian territory.

⚡️ National Resistance Center: Resistance disrupts 'voting' in occupied Skadovsk https://kyivindependent.com/national-resistance-center-sabotage/ injures 5 Russian troops.

Russian media: Oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai hit https://kyivindependent.com/russian-media-oil-refinery-in-krasnodar-krai-hit-by-drones/ by drones.

⚡️Media: 12 Russian oil refineries successfully hithttps://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-media-ukrainian-forces-have-recently-successfully-attacked-12-russian-oil-refineries/ in recent attacks by Ukraine.

⚡️ Anti-Kremlin militia claims to have captured 25 Russian troops. https://kyivindependent.com/anti-kremlin-militia-claims-to-capture-25-russian-troops/

Latvia's State Security Service (VDD) began investigating Tatjana Zdanoka, a Latvian member of the European Parliament accused of spying for Russia, the Latvian news outlet Delfi reported on March 16. https://kyivindependent.com/latvia-investigates-mep-accused-of-spying-for-russia/

Police launched an investigation into the circumstances of a supposed attempted suicide by a man in the Khust military enlistment office in Zakarpattia Oblast, Hromadske reported on March 16, citing a statement from the police. https://kyivindependent.com/police-open-investigation-over-attempted-suicide-in-zakarpattia-oblast-enlistment-office/

Opinion: How many planes does Russia have? https://kyivindependent.com/opinion-how-many-planes-does-russia-have/
"Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 with approximately 780 tactical aircraft in service, divided between fighter and tactical strike aircraft," writes military historian Andrii Kharuk in his guest op-ed.
"Confirmed losses, according to the most conservative estimates, amount to 90-100 aircraft, with two-thirds of those lost being tactical strike aircraft. Likely, Russia has lost anywhere from 130-150 aircraft. However, this does not take into account the aircraft that have been sent in for repair, or those that have been 'cannibalized' for parts for other aircraft." [does this tally with what you have read, @notimagain ?]

⚡️Tusk urges https://kyivindependent.com/tusk-urged-republican-speaker-johnson-to-take-decision-on-stalled-ukraine-aid-after-russian-attack-on-odesa/ House speaker Johnson to 'take decision' on stalled Ukraine aid after Russian attack on Odesa.

How will Trump’s potential re-election affect war in Ukraine? s | This Week in Ukraine S2E10
The new episode of #ThisWeekinUkraine is dedicated to Donald Trump's relationship with Russia, and what another 4 years of Trump at the White House might mean for Ukraine.
Host Anastasiia Lapatina is joined by the Kyiv Independent news editor Nate Ostiller.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦

  • MAR 17, 2024

■ Fewer airstrikes but 🇷🇺/🇺🇦 ratio remains high
■ More artillery strikes & ratio remains very high
■ Casualties & equipment losses well above 7-day average
■ Fewer combat engagements but more settlements under artillery fire

Ukraine Invasion: Part 48
DancesWithDucks · 17/03/2024 11:30

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Yesterday, 🕯 two years ago, Russian terrorists attacked the Mariupol Drama Theater, killing hundreds of peaceful Ukrainians. https://t.me/United24media/19717 [watch it and weep]

According to Bild, the ruling German coalition supported the transfer of Taurus missiles to Ukraine in the European Parliament. The resolution received support from 451 deputies, while 46 voted against it and 49 abstained. This decision contrasts with the recent decision of the Bundestag not to transfer these missiles to Ukraine.

Notwithstanding the severe shortage of ammunition, the Ukrainian army continues to fight. How? The answer is people—individuals who tirelessly seek solutions even in the direst circumstances.
Max, a combat sapper with the 92nd Brigade, is at the center of this story. He is an expert in his craft, capable of cutting a mortar with an angle grinder and then reassembling it. During the day, he assembles a combat-ready 152 mm shell from two damaged ones, and at night, he enters the enemy territory to mine or clear mined positions during assaults.

Starting from March 16, driving cars registered in Russia in Finland without a special permit is prohibited, as reported by Ilta-Sanomat.

Here are five scenarios outlined by Politico for Russia during Putin's new term:

  1. The flourishing of democracy in the Russian Federation — probability: 5-10%
  2. Disintegration of Russia — probability: 10-15%
  3. Activation of Russian nationalists — probability: 15-20%
  4. Technocratic reboot (emergence of a new regime by 2030) —probability: 20-25%
  5. "Long live President Putin" (no changes) — probability: 45-50%

Ukraine uses Russian trophy shells in conditions of ammo shortage. Fighting without ammunition

Notwithstanding the severe shortage of ammunition, the Ukrainian army continues to fight. How? The answer is people — individuals who tirelessly seek solutio...

https://youtu.be/8w752ge_ygE

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