Ukraine Invasion: Part 48

[MagicFox]

That last one went quickly! Welcome to thread 48. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
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A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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Just finished watching 29 Days in Mariupol. Such powerful and important viewing. Watched it with DM who has become a bit apathetic to the war and even trots out Russian lines from time to time. Fair to say she’s now seen the light, it should definitely be mandatory viewing.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-20-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Several Russian financial, economic, and military indicators suggest that Russia is preparing for a large-scale conventional conflict with NATO, not imminently but likely on a shorter timeline than what some Western analysts have initially posited.
• The Russian military continues to undertake structural reforms to simultaneously support the war in Ukraine while expanding Russia’s conventional capabilities in the long term in preparation for a potential future large-scale conflict with NATO.
• GUR reportedly conducted a drone strike against a Russian air base in Saratov Oblast on March 20 amid further indications that Ukrainian drone strikes within Russia are achieving limited asymmetric effects against Russian military assets and economic output.
• Kremlin-affiliated actors in the pro-Russian Moldovan autonomous region of Gagauzia are invoking narratives that mirror previous Russian claims about Ukraine in the years leading up to Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, likely as part of the Kremlin’s wider hybrid efforts to destabilize Moldova.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna and Donetsk City on March 20.
• The Russian military continues to train drone operators for operations in Ukraine.

Russia announces a massive wave of new mobilisation:

@mrkovalenko

In particular, Russia will create 2 new ground armies (more than 80,000 total) and 30 additional military formations, including 16 brigades (from 32,000 to 128,000 troops total) and 14 divisions (from 128,000 to 560,000 total). Simple calculations show that the proposed boost in "cannon fodder" is a minimum of 240,000 and a maximum of 768,000.

I think unfortunately that was always coming. It was just a matter of time.

mm, was expected. And ties into: -

Grim and worrying

Several Russian financial, economic, and military indicators suggest that Russia is preparing for a large-scale conventional conflict with NATO, not imminently but likely on a shorter timeline than what some Western analysts have initially posited.

From* *@blueshoes ' ISW roundup.

Apologies I can’t find reference to this anywhere including on the Twitter feed. Surely would be bigger news if true?

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Russia accuses Olympic Committee of ‘racism and neo-Nazism https://kyivindependent.com/russia-accuses-olympic-committee-of-racism-and-neo-nazism-over-opening-ceremony-decision/ over opening ceremony decision to bar athletes from Russia and Belarus from participating in the opening ceremony of the Paris Olympics this summer..

⚡️UPDATE: Drone strikes reportedly https://kyivindependent.com/russian-authorities-claim-belgorod-saratov-oblasts-attacked-by-drones/ hit Russia's Engels airbase, other locations in Belgorod, Saratov oblasts.

Ukraine war latest: Situation near Robotyne 'in flux' but not critical https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-5/ military says

⚡️ Russian media: Several Chinese banks stop accepting yuan payments https://kyivindependent.com/russian-media-several-chinese-banks-stop-accepting-yuan-payments-from-russia/ from Russia fearing ramifications of U.S. sanctions. These institutions include Ping An Bank, Bank of Ningbo, China Guangfa Bank, Kunshan Rural Commercial Bank, Great Wall West China Bank, Shenzhen Rural Commercial Bank, Dongguan Rural Commercial Bank, and China Zheshang Bank

⚡️Russia threatens https://kyivindependent.com/russia-threatens-to-target-us-spy-satellites-made-by-spacex/ to target US spy satellites made by SpaceX.
Russia said on March 20 that U.S. spy satellites launched in collaboration with private companies such as SpaceX would be a “legitimate target for retaliatory measures, including military ones.”

⚡️ Washington Post: Ukraine to start producing 155 mm shells https://kyivindependent.com/washington-post-ukraine-to-start-its-own-nato-standard-shells-production-not-until-second-half-of-2024/ in 'second half' of 2024 at the earliest.

5 things to know about the latest weapons being sent to Ukraine https://kyivindependent.com/5-things-to-know-about-the-latest-weapons-being-sent-to-ukraine/
While the latest aid packages pledged to Ukraine are unlikely to make a significant difference to Ukraine's front lines on its own, there are some interesting and badly needed weapons making their way to Kyiv.

The failure of the U.S. to pass continued aid for Ukraine could cause the "worst atrocity in history," Democratic Senator Joe Manchin said during a summit hosted by Axios on March 19. https://kyivindependent.com/us-senator-failure-to-pass-ukraine-aid-could-cause-worst-atrocity-in-history/ [hard to see it as the 'worst' but the lack of aid conveys considerable weakness, and Russia is quite possibly building up to attack NATO from all indications]

⚡️ Canada allocates $1.5 billion https://kyivindependent.com/canada-allocates-1-5-billion-to-ukraine-to-finance-budget-deficit/ to Ukraine to finance budget deficit.

⚡️ Lithuania allocates $38 million to buy shells for Ukraine https://kyivindependent.com/lithuania-allocates-38-million-to-buy-shells-for-ukraine-via-czech-initiative/ via Czech initiative.

⚡️Netherlands to procure https://kyivindependent.com/netherlands-f16-munitions-164-million/ $164 million in F-16 munitions for Ukraine

⚡️UN: Russia creating ‘stifling climate of fear in occupied territories.
Russia is committing widespread violations of international law, including unlawful detention and torture to create a “stifling climate of fear” in occupied areas of Ukraine, the UN said on March 20.
“The actions of the Russian Federation have ruptured the social fabric of communities and left individuals isolated, with profound and long-lasting consequences for Ukrainian society as a whole,” said UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk.

⚡️UPDATE: Russian missile attack on Kyiv injures https://kyivindependent.com/explosions-heard-in-kyiv-amid-threat-of-massive-russian-missile-attack/ at least 13, including child.

⚡️ Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 9, injure 37 https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-against-ukraine-kill-9-injure-37-over-past-day/ over past day

⚡️Russia’s ‘exit tax’ nets Kremlin $385 million https://kyivindependent.com/russias-exit-tax-nets-kremlin-385-million-from-foreign-firms-in-2024-alone/ from foreign firms in 2024 alone.

⚡️ Prosecutor's Office: Russian officer who shot civilians https://kyivindependent.com/prosecutors-office-russian-deputy-commander-who-shot-civilians-in-hostomel-identified/ in Hostomel identified.

⚡️New ICC chief on Putin https://kyivindependent.com/new-icc-chief-on-putin-heavens-vengeance-is-slow-but-sure/ – ‘Heaven's vengeance is slow but sure.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦

• MAR 21, 2024

■ Decent airstrike ratio, artillery ratio stays high (1 🇺🇦 artillery strike)
■ Casualties & equipment losses below avg; decent vehicle & artillery losses
■ Oryx: 120 🇷🇺 40 🇺🇦 added; 30-day ratio 2.4x after removal of duplicates

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Ukraine has initiated the production of missiles with a range exceeding 640 km, as reported by The Washington Post.
Additionally, Ukroboronprom is independently manufacturing various military equipment, including Soviet-style shells of 122 mm and 152 mm caliber, mortar shells, and drones fulfilling up to 90% of their requirements. Development is underway for an air defense system akin to the American and Norwegian NASAMS. Despite significant production increases, Prime Minister Shmygal acknowledged that Ukraine's domestic output alone cannot fully offset the loss of international support, particularly from the USA.

The world's largest oil refinery demands that Russian Sovcomflot tankers be expelled from India — Reuters.
India's Reliance Industries, operator of the world's biggest refining complex, will not buy Russian oil loaded on tankers operated by shipper Sovcomflot (SCF) after recent US sanctions, according to two sources familiar with the matter.
SCF is a major supplier of tonnage for Russian oil. The refusal to accept its tankers may negatively affect the sale of raw materials in India, which has become the main buyer of sea oil shipments from Russia after the withdrawal of Western companies at the end of 2022, journalists say.

Admiral Rob Bauer, the highest-ranking NATO military leader and Chairman of the Alliance's Military Committee, arrived in Kyiv for the first time since the start of the war.

President Zelenskyy met with Dutch Defense Minister Ollongren in Kyiv, following her previous visit to Dnipro.

The US House of Representatives condemned the Russian Federation for the kidnapping of Ukrainian children.

@Igotjelly

Mike Eckel (@mikeeckel.bsky.social)
AT Mike_Eckel

Here's Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announcing the creation of 2 new ground armies, along with 16 new brigades and 14 new divisions. Very unclear where the new numbers will come from, though there are fears of a new, post-election mobilization.

https://t.me/WarDonbass

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

What's left of the Serebryansky forest (Kreminna axis), where fierce fighting has been going on for more than a year

Thanks. This indicates a potential mobilisation (which frankly we should expect) but there doesn’t seem to be any confirmation of an announced mobilisation as the other post referred to.

I think we need to be mindful of terms such as ‘potential’ when referring to conflict between NATO and Russia. These terms aren’t used by accident and to be honest do a lot of heavy lifting. Russia may well be preparing for a conflict with NATO but that isn’t the same as a conflict being assured, potential will is a massive factor.

I’m just cognisant of the fact lots of people follow these threads who suffer from severe anxiety and we need to be mindful not to fall into the trap of scary sounding rhetoric. We might understand and appreciate the nuances but many won’t have the time/capacity to do so.

Sorry this is the post I got it from: x.com/mrkovalenko/status/1770432112723710221?s=46&t=ZRiOqYBPJdwGCarjKNzCeQ

Please can somebody explain to me why Russia would attack a NATO country and seriously want an all out war with NATO as the ISW suggests here? If Putin can unite Ukraine and Belarus with Russia and then pivot to Asia where his interests are clearly more aligned, then why wouldn't he do this, why wouldn't his efforts be concentrated here instead of on NATO?

Europe needs to defend itself against a revanchist russia and re-arm, no question. It makes sense that russia will also increase its military build up to compete and ideally outdo NATO. Of course I worry about this worst case scenario but nobody has yet been able to show me the LOGIC of it

Does Russia want to invade the whole of Europe like the nazis? What is the goal here? Seriously. why is nobody asking what russia would get out of this?

Russia starting a war with nato doesn't make sense to me. Feels very unlikely. But Russia increasing its military strength so it can threaten to invade does make sense.

Yes, me too. And maybe also some 'oh if we seem as though we're preparing for an all out war, the west will focus more on their budgets and allocate less to Ukraine'? Maybe I'm being naive?

Having read the ISW page for today briefly I don’t think that’s what they’re actually saying. They’re saying he’s creating the military, political and economic conditions for a potential conflict. He’s a paranoid autocrat who could easily lose in Ukraine if the West gets its shit together. He wants to scare NATO into inaction, and it’s working. As with the nuclear rhetoric, it’s all smoke and mirrors I suspect. He’s played these games for years but now having proven he’ll follow through once in a while we need to take every move seriously.

I agree with you it’s illogical, something our old friend MG has been speaking to forever. I suspect after Ukraine it wouldn’t be NATO, it would be one of the west-aligned non-NATO states mixed in with hybrid warfare against NATO as we see in Ukraine.

Yes that's my thinking too. That's the most logical route. I think the European public understands that we need to increase defence without being shit scared all the time. I haven't seen any analyst actually give an understandable reason for why Russia would attack NATO (except for those that say it could happen through accident and miscommunication.) the only thing they seem to say is "because he could, he'd seek to undermine the alliance." Well he's doing a good job of that already in multiple domains

Yes you’re 100% right. When the arguments are made against an attack on NATO they’re logical and thought through and articulated well. I have yet to see the same for an attack that doesn’t resort to scare tactics….. but then scaring the shit out of folk works so 🤷‍♀️

He very clearly wants to re-establish the old Soviet Empire. He is, by all accounts, paranoid and clearly he's aggressive. He has gone to war regularly as his time as President and he's becoming more unstable and nationalistic, not less.

Looking at it logically he has a lot to lose but he is not sensible. If he was, he'd have withdrawn from Ukraine before losing what is it, 200$ billion plus? (iirc) and at least 350,000 seriously wounded or killed.

He's withdrawn into his own cunning madness and he is aggressive in several different ways. He doesn't back down.

The warnings from the Eastern European leaders and Stoltenberg are serious about Russia considering a conventional war. The ISW isn't always right, but it tends to be cautious rather than making wild predictions.

I don't think, myself, that war is inevitable, but it's a real possibility.

I realise some people have a lot of anxiety but frankly I think the UK is pretty safe. So is Western Europe.

I'm not trying to scare people.

Wasn't referring to you Ducks, just to the media.

Invading Ukraine was pretty rational if you consider Putin thought he'd roll in and take Kyiv. War with NATO? That's not rational. I get your point, he could be irrational and do it from that perspective. But putin does seem like a pretty rational actor to me

Yes absolutely not referring to you @DancesWithDucks I think when you look at Sky today you see a good example. It literally says "Putin prepares for war with NATO" when quoting the ISW, without any of the nuances around it. As you know yourself that was only 1 line from a full page on the ISW website. It's pure scare tactics from the mainstream media.

I do have to say that, in his own way, I agree that Putin is generally rational. He had tested the water with Ukraine, invading by stealth a few times and there were 0 repercussions. He thought he would walk to Kyiv in 3 days and that the West would wring it's hands and shout but nothing more. He was wrong, he miscalculated but that's not the same as being irrational.

Also agree that this is a good point, that is missed in the hysterics of the mainstream media: "The warnings from the Eastern European leaders and Stoltenberg are serious about Russia considering a conventional war. The ISW isn't always right" - realistically Putin can't win a conventional war against Europe (taking aside the US for a moment given the uncertainties). He is barely winning in Ukraine and that's with only minimal support currently from NATO and the West and a war wearied Ukrainian armed forces.