Ukraine Invasion: Part 48

[MagicFox]

That last one went quickly! Welcome to thread 48. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
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If they get them in quantity, it's a game changer. They're not in this tranche, but likely will be in the next.

They're ballistic missiles powered by a rocket motor, so they're much faster and harder to shoot down than a cruise missile (like the Storm Shadow), which is powered by a jet engine. A typical attack profile for an ATACMS would be to launch up to an altitude of eight miles or so, then come straight down onto the target. That makes them very hard to intercept, especially when several are launched at the same time, or they are mixed in with other missiles.

The 190 mile range means anything on Crimea, including the Kerch Bridge, is within range. They carry a 450kg warhead, which is much bigger than the shorter range missiles Ukraine currently fires from the HIMARS lauchers. The ATACMS missiles are fired from the same launchers, just one per magazine vs six. So there's no retraining for the crews. The fire control system on the HIMARS automatically recognizes the missile type and makes all of the necessary adjustments to launch it.

This is terrible news for the Russians. Now, everything they have in Crimea and the occupied provinces is vulnerable - ships, port equipment, air defense systems, warehouses, troop barracks, military command posts, etc. It's a nightmare for them.

More here on the system and its history.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MGM-140_ATACMS

@Igotjelly, I've just seen the report today that the US has already provided some of these missiles to Ukraine for field testing.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-long-range-missiles-4d2254639eb5a503d8b0a291ed0680e9

One thing that might not have been clear from my earlier post is that Ukraine's possession of these weapons forces the Russians to do things they don't want to do - hide things, move things, reprioritize air defenses, pull back command posts and logistics, etc. Not every target will get a missile, but the Russians will have to make changes that diminish their combat readiness and effectiveness in response to the threat.

Ukrainian Front

AT front_ukrainian

Back in March, theUSA secretly handed over long-range ATACMS toUkraine, writes Reuters According to Politico, the US approved the delivery of 300-kilometer range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine in March, which Ukraine has already employed twice. Additional 300-km range ATACMS will be included in the new aid package signed today.

@notimagain If this is accurate (always the 'if') could it be why the A50u plane was shot down?

• If this is accurate (always the 'if') could it be why the A50u plane was shot down?

AFAIK (so open to correction) ATACMS is a ballistic missile for use against static ground targets, it has no anti-air function.

It could of course be used against airfields.

Good interview with Tony Radakin: on.ft.com/3wahmDC

Agreed, the guidance on the ATACMS is used to target a fixed location, not a moving target, and the A50 has always been a very high-value target for many reasons.

If the A50 was in the area, it would see the ATACMS launch on its radar and possibly give the target a few minutes warning, so the Russians having fewer of them would help the Ukrainians maintain the tactical surprise.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-24-2024

Key Takeaways:

• US President Joe Biden announced on April 24 that the US will begin sending military equipment to Ukraine “a few hours” after signing a bill that will provide roughly $60 billion of assistance to Ukraine.
• The United States reportedly provided an unspecified number of long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine in March 2024, some of which Ukraine has already used to strike Russian targets in deep rear areas.
• The arrival of long-range ATACMS missiles in sufficient quantities will allow Ukrainian forces to degrade Russian logistics and threaten Russian airfields in deep rear areas, although months of delay may have provided the Russian military time to offset the potential operational impacts that ATACMS will afford Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted successful drone strikes against Russian energy and industrial facilities in Smolensk and Lipetsk oblasts on the night of April 23 to 24.
• Russian authorities arrested Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov on April 24 on charges of accepting bribes, although other Russian sources reported that Ivanov is suspected of treason.
• Ivanov’s arrest prompted Russian information space speculation about a new round of personnel changes in the Russian military and claims that the arrest is part of Kremlin factional conflicts.
• Russian ultranationalist milbloggers largely celebrated Ivanov’s arrest and used it as an opportunity to publicly criticize the Russian MoD.
• The Kremlin explicitly threatened Armenia if Armenia does not resume active engagement in the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and resume its pro-Kremlin alignment.
• Kremlin-appointed Children’s Rights Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova deliberately misrepresented recent Qatari-mediated negotiations between Russia and Ukraine as the first face-to-face negotiations on the return of Ukrainian children forcibly removed and deported by Russia, likely in an effort to minimize Russia’s responsibility for the coordinated removal and deportation of Ukrainian children.
• Moldovan authorities filed a criminal case against Yevgenia Gutsul, the Kremlin-affiliated governor of the pro-Russian Moldovan autonomous region of Gagauzia, for campaign finance violations as Moldovan officials continue to warn about Russia’s threat to Moldova.
• Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Avdiivka, Donetsk City, and Robotyne.
• Russian State Duma Committee on Information Policy Head Alexander Khinshtein stated on April 24 that unspecified Russian officials will soon submit a draft law to the State Duma that would ban the extradition of foreigners who have fought in Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine if the foreigners face prosecution for their military service in their home countries.

The US sending the ATACMs does show that Biden doesn't want Ukraine to loose.

Sadly there seems to have been a breakthrough by the Russians in at least one area, according to DeepState.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ German defense minister: Russia already produces surplus military equipment.
Russia is already producing more arms and military equipment than it needs for its war against Ukraine, and is filling its weapons warehouses, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said, as reported by the German television channel n-tv on April 25. kyivindependent.com/german-defense-minister-russia-already-produces-surplus-military-equipment/

The U.S. began this spring secretly providing Ukraine with long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) at President Joe Biden's direction, U.S. State Department Spokesperson Vedant Patel confirmed at a press briefing on April 24. https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-us-secretly-send-long-range-atacms-missiles-to-ukraine/

⚡️ NYT: US secretly sent Ukraine over 100 ATACMS last week, some of which were immediately deployed and used to strike a Russian military airfield in Dzhankoi in occupied Crimea. https://kyivindependent.com/nyt-us-secretly-sent-ukraine-100-atacms-last-week-immediately-used-to-strike-russian-airfield/

️Zelensky: Ukraine has precise intelligence information that Russia is preparing to disrupt a global peace summit set to take place in Switzerland in June. kyivindependent.com/zelensky-russia-planning-to-disrupt-global-peace-summit-in-switzerland/

⚡️FT: UK defense chief says Ukraine to increase long-range strikes in Russia. https://kyivindependent.com/ft-uk-defense-chief-says-ukraine-to-increase-long-range-strikes-in-russia/

⚡️ ISW: Effectiveness of new ATACMS may be blunted by delays in US aid. https://kyivindependent.com/isw-effectiveness-of-new-atacms-may-be-blunted-by-delays-in-us-aid/

⚡️Bloomberg: Russia is expected to export natural gas to China with prices as much as 28% below those for Russia's European clients at least until 2027, Bloomberg reported on April 23, citing the Russian Economy Ministry's outlook. https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-russia-to-supply-china-with-28-cheaper-gas-compared-to-european-market-at-least-through-2027/

⚡️Reuters: Next round of EU sanctions on Russia to target (https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-next-round-of-eu-sanctions-on-russia-to-target-shadow-fleet-ships-transporting-north-korean-equipment/ shadow fleet, ships transporting North Korean equipment.

⚡️NATO's largest cyber defense exercise, Locked Shields, began in Tallinn, Estonia, on April 24, drawing participants from over 40 countries, including Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/largest-nato-cyber-defense-exercise-begins-in-estonia/

⚡️Government bans sending passports to military-age Ukrainian men abroad.
The Ukrainian government has banned sending identification documents and passports abroad for Ukrainian men aged 18 to 60, according to a decree published on the Cabinet of Ministers' website on April 24. https://kyivindependent.com/government-forbids-sending-passports-to-ukrainian-military-age-men-abroad/

⚡️Polish defense minister: Poland ready to help Ukraine get its military-aged men back. kyivindependent.com/polish-defense-minister-poland-ready-to-help-ukraine-get-its-military-aged-men-back/

⚡️ Lithuania may assist Ukraine in returning military-aged men. https://kyivindependent.com/lithuania-to-assist-ukraine-in-returning-military-aged-men/

⚡️Latvian defense minister: Drone coalition raises https://kyivindependent.com/latvian-defense-minister-drone-coalition-raised-over-535-million-to-buy-drones-for-ukraine/ over $535 million to buy drones for Ukraine.

Explaining Washington’s REPO Act that could kick-start the confiscation of frozen Russian assets
The U.S. on April 20 became the first nation to adopt legislation green-lighting confiscating frozen Russian assets for Ukraine.
President Joe Biden signed the REPO Act alongside a $95 billion foreign aid bill that included $61 billion for Kyiv on April 24, setting the legal basis for liquidating immobilized Russian assets held in the U.S. https://kyivindependent.com/explaining-washingtons-repo-act-that-could-kick-start-the-confiscation-of-frozen-russian-assets/

⚡️ Bloomberg: Qatar to host meeting on Ukrainian peace plan.* * The meeting this weekend in Doha will see officials from the Group of Seven and the so-called Global South prepare the ground for the Swiss summit. https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-qatar-to-host-meeting-on-ukrainian-proposal-to-end-war/

⚡️Reuters: Satellite imagery shows ship likely used to transfer North Korean arms to Russia docked in Chinese port. https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-satellite-imagery-shows-ship-likely-used-to-transfer-north-korean-arms-to-russia-docked-in-chinese-port/

⚡️Ukraine, Portugal start talks on security agreement. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-portugal-start-talks-on-security-agreement/

⚡️ Russian governor claims Russians tricked into donating to Ukraine's military.
Residents of Russia's Kemerovo Oblast were "made" by "cyber swindlers" to send millions of rubles to accounts connected to Ukraine's Armed Forces, the regional governor, Sergey Tsivilyov, claimed on April 24. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-governor-claims-citizens-tricked-into-sending-millions-of-rubles-to-ukraines-military/

⚡️Justice Ministry freezes assets, accounts of ex-Supreme Court chief after failing to comply with court order. https://kyivindependent.com/justice-ministry-arrest-all-property-accounts-of-ex-supreme-court-chief/
Ukraine's Justice Ministry froze all assets and accounts of former head of the Supreme Court Vsevolod Kniaziev after he failed to pay a court-ordered sum of nearly Hr 1 million ($25,200) over an illegally received gift.

⚡️Russia establishes advisory body to evaluate books' compliance with national legislation, namely recent laws targeting the LGBT community in Russia. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-establishes-advisory-body-to-evaluate-books-compliance-with-national-legislation/

Ukraine's Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAPO) will request the arrest of Agriculture Minister Mykola Solskyi with an alternative option of a Hr 200 million ($5 million) bail, Economic Pravda reported on April 24. https://kyivindependent.com/anti-corruption-prosecutors-office-asks-to-arrest-agriculture-minister-over-alleged-acquisition-of-state-owned-land/

⚡️Russia strikes critical infrastructure facility in Cherkasy Oblast, 6 reportedly injured.
⚡️Update: Russian attack on Smila in Cherkasy Oblast damaged 47 houses.

⚡️Italy to cooperate with UNESCO in rebuilding Odesa, cathedral damaged by Russian attacks. https://kyivindependent.com/italy-to-cooperate-with-unesco-to-help-rebuild-odesa-cathedral-damaged-by-russian-attacks/

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦

• APR 25, 2024

■ Intense 🇷🇺 attacks; first 1k casualties in a while ■ Equipment losses above average as well; good tank losses ■ Elevated 🇷🇺 strikes, airstrike ratio ok but only 1 🇺🇦 artillery strike ■ Oryx: 48 🇷🇺 15 🇺🇦; 30-day average at 2.7x

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The White House has admitted that Ukraine lost Avdiivka due to delay in aid.
“The consequences of the delay have been felt in Ukraine. Over the past six months, Ukraine has been forced to conserve ammunition, and this has led to the loss of territory in the east, including Avdiivka,” said Jake Sullivan, the US National Security Advisor.
He added that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are still under severe pressure on the battlefield.

The main reason Ukraine was not provided with ATACMS earlier was concerns about our own combat readiness, but they were overcome by ordering a significant batch of these missiles from the manufacturer, — US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan at a briefing.
He added that “as a result,we can continue to supply ATACMS while maintaining the combat readiness of US forces”.
“The decision on ATACMS was made after Russia used ballistic missiles from North Korea against Ukraine and began massive attacks on civilian infrastructure.

The European Commissioner for Budget and Administration, Johannes Hahn, stated that Ukraine's accession to the EU would not pose significant financial difficulties for the union.
According to Hahn, Ukraine's planned accession to the EU may require an increase in the EU budget of up to 20%. However, such an expansion will be necessary if the current rules for agricultural aid and structural support within the EU are maintained.
He clarified that a 20% increase in the budget under current conditions would mean an additional €200 billion over the seven-year EU budget period.

China can no longer take a neutral position in Russia's war against Ukraine, says US Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith.
The ambassador emphasized that the United States is "increasingly seeing material support" for Russia from China, adding that dual-use goods from China have played a crucial role in helping Moscow achieve certain of its goals in the war against Ukraine.
"If they did not provide some of these components or this material support, Russia would be in a very different situation and would have problems continuing these acts of aggression," she said.
Among other things, Smith noted that China provides Russia with "machine tools, microelectronics, UAV technology and nitrocellulose, which is used as a metallic charge."

The UK imports record volumes of Russian oil products, — The Guardian.
The UK officially banned the import of Russian oil products from 5 December 2022. However, a loophole in the legislation has allowed Russian oil to continue to flow into the UK.
As long as Russian oil is refined in another country, it is no longer considered to have originated in Russia, allowing it to evade the trade ban. As a result, Russian oil is being sold to allied countries for processing before being exported to the UK.
Under this scheme, refined oil imports into the UK from India, China, and Turkey amounted to a record £2.2 billion in 2023.

In the past century, Ukrainian army has already once liberated Crimea from the Bolshevik invaders. On this day in 1918, the Crimean unit of the Ukrainian People's Republic Army, under the command of Colonel Petro Bolbochan, captured Simferopol. https://t.me/United24media/21179

Krynky, Left Bank of Kherson region. https://t.me/United24media/21188 [the ruin is devastating. It really is .. ruined]

Call sign "Babay" (Bogeyman) with his fluffy comrade.

Callsign "@DanceswithDucks" with her fluffy comrade.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇩🇪 Scholz said that his decision not to supply Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine will not change, even though the US Congress is ready to transfer long-range ATACMS missiles https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/news/2024/04/24/7184546/

Russia vetoed a draft UN Security Council resolution against the proliferation of weapons, including nuclear weapons, in outer space.
The document was voted in favor by 13 out of 15 members of the Security Council. Only Russia spoke out against it, while China abstained.

Russia will prepare to attack Poland if it acquires nuclear weapons.
"The relevant facilities will definitely become a target, and they will be at the forefront of our military planning," said Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov.

🇩🇪 Germany does not plan to deprive Ukrainian men of mobilization age of refugee status
According to Eurostat, this country has the largest number of Ukrainians - 1,286,580. And these are only officially registered people who have received temporary protection status. https://www.dw.com/uk/ukrainskih-colovikiv-ne-pozbavlatimut-u-frn-statusu-bizenciv/a-68911507

🔥In Omsk, Russia, three tanks with oil products are on fire, each 50 cubic meters in size
It is not yet known what caused the fire; a fire train and aviation were engaged to extinguish it.

On Russian state TV there is propaganda of nuclear war and a preventive nuclear strike on the USA.
At the same time, Russia is still receiving Western electronics for missiles
When will the World understand that it is dealing with dangerous maniacs who dream of nuclear suicide? https://t.me/liveukraine_media/20401

Ducks, that pic is adorable.

Thank you for the updates.

ISW: Effectiveness of new ATACMS may be blunted by delays in US aid. https://kyivindependent.com/isw-effectiveness-of-new-atacms-may-be-blunted-by-delays-in-us-aid/

I think this take is simplistic and a bit misleading. The ISW makes the point that the Russian Air Force can easily operate from bases outside of the 190-mile range of the ATACMS, which is correct. But if you're a soldier, and your food, ammo and fuel are 200 miles away, you're in deep trouble. Air defenses, electronic warfare units, military housing, vehicle depots/repair yards, etc. are all going to be within 200 miles of Ukrainian forces. There will be no shortage of worthwhile targets for the ATACMS.

@MissConductUS

I think this take is simplistic and a bit misleading. The ISW makes the point that the Russian Air Force can easily operate from bases outside of the 190-mile range of the ATACMS, which is correct. But if you're a soldier, and your food, ammo and fuel are 200 miles away, you're in deep trouble……

Push the Russian Air Force back from any Forward Operating Bases (FOBs) and it’ll hurt them.

Lose the FOBs and it means aircraft have further to transit to get to/from the operating areas near the front (maybe an extra 20-30 min each way, type dependent), which puts extra hours on the airframes, reduces operational sorties per hours flown, potentially the increased airborne time increases probability of equipment failures, and increases crew fatigue for no operational gain.

Every little nibble at their capability helps.

I have to confess my thoughts expressed above weren’t entirely my own work, there have been one or two techie articles doing the rounds recently about how the Russian Air Force is suffering due to the pressure of continuous operations…

“Ukraine, which is short on air defence munitions, has a few options to accelerate Russian air losses. Attacking air bases would likely reduce VKS sortie rates by more than 20 percent by disrupting operations and forcing the VKS to fly from more distant bases……”

https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2024/03/the-russian-air-force-is-hollowing-itself-out-air-defenses.html

It's no coincidence that the first target the Ukrainians hit with the longer range missiles was the Dzhankoi air base in Crimea. Eight missiles were fired and in addition to extensive damage to the base, three S-300 batteries were destroyed.

That's a great article from Rand, thanks for sharing the link.

Here's a bit of good news. American production of 155mm artillery rounds is ramping up nicely. I wish the same could be said of Europe's output.

https://www.defenseone.com/business/2024/04/goal-100k-artillery-shells-month-sight-army-says/396047/

I am heartened to read about the negative impact on the Russian air force. thanks to @notimagain and @MissConductUS for your input.

The statement below from Ukraine earlier this month has not been on my mind. I hope they will get some relief from these guided bombs which have been causing so much damage.

"Ukraine now lacking air defense, Russian jets freely fly over the front line as they never have before, free to accurately hit Ukrainian positions with guided aerial bombs."

@blueshoes, the lack of air defense missiles has allowed the Russian Air Force to get close to the front lines. As the Ukrainians receive fresh supplies of those missiles from the US, that will push them back.

Today's Ukraine: The Latest podcast was especially good. It featured Jonah Goldberg, an American syndicated news columnist and an insightful and even-handed observer of US politics. The Telegraph team interviewed him about the history of the Ukraine aid bill and how the Ukraine issue is impacting the presidential election. It's well worth a listen if you missed it.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-25-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Russian forces are stabilizing their small salient northwest of Avdiivka and may make further tactical gains that could cause Ukrainian forces to withdraw from other tactical positions along the frontline west of Avdiivka to a more defensible line.
• Russian offensive operations west of Avdiivka aim to exploit opportunities for tactical gains while the Russian offensive operation to seize Chasiv Yar offers Russian forces the most immediate prospects for operationally significant advances.
• US officials are reportedly worried that the latest package of US military aid to Ukraine may not be enough for Ukraine to regain all of its territory. US military assistance is only part of what Ukraine currently needs, moreover; but Ukraine is itself working to address other war fighting requirements — primarily manpower challenges and the expansion of its defense industrial base (DIB).
• Russian forces are reportedly fielding drones adapted to be more resilient against Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) capabilities on critical sectors of the frontline, likely in an attempt to leverage new technological capabilities to exploit a limited window before US security assistance arrives in Ukraine.
• A prominent Kremlin-awarded Russian milblogger channel announced that it opened a “media school” in the Balkans, likely supporting Kremlin efforts to expand its reach in the international information space.
• French President Emmanuel Macron emphasized the importance of Europe’s self-sufficiency for its defense and sovereignty during an April 25 speech.
• Ukrainian forces recently made confirmed advances near Siversk, and Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin justified Russia’s ongoing efforts to nationalize Russian enterprises, including defense industrial base (DIB) enterprises on April 25.

I'm very worried about German Defense Minister Pistorius says that Russia is producing enough to be able to stockpile stuff :/

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Putin confirms he will visit China in May. https://kyivindependent.com/putin-to-visit-china-in-may/

⚡️Chinese officials separately met with US, Russian counterparts at Western Pacific Naval Symposium.
Senior Chinese military officials separately met U.S. and Russian naval counterparts at the Western Pacific Naval Symposium in Qingdao, Chinese Defense Ministry spokesperson Wu Qian said during a press briefing on April 25. https://kyivindependent.com/chinese-officials-meetings-us-russian-counterparts/

Sumy Oblast fortifies amid looming threat of Kharkiv attack https://kyivindependent.com/sumy-oblast-fortifies-amid-looming-threat-of-kharkiv-attack/

⚡️Russia threatens to decrease diplomatic relations with US in response to REPO Act. Russia could lower its level of diplomatic relations with the U.S. if confiscated frozen Russian assets are transferred to Ukraine, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told Russian state-controlled media on April 25. https://kyivindependent.com/politico-us-to-announce-new-6-billion-weapons-contract-for-ukraine/

⚡️Media: Number of Russian drones on front lines has doubled in 3 months, https://kyivindependent.com/media-number-of-russian-drones-on-front-lines-has-doubled-in-3-months/ Ukrainska Pravda reported on April 25, citing undisclosed military sources.

⚡️Politico: US to announce https://kyivindependent.com/politico-us-to-announce-new-6-billion-weapons-contract-for-ukraine/ new $6 billion weapons contract for Ukraine.
The contract will include Patriot air defense systems, artillery, drones, counter-drone weapons, and air-to-air missiles, and may be finalized as soon as April 26, the officials said.

⚡️A Swiss parliamentary committee supported a proposal on April 25 to provide 5 billion Swiss francs ($5.5 billion) in aid to Ukraine, moving the funding closer to being fully passed by the government. https://kyivindependent.com/swiss-parliamentary-committee-backs-proposal-to-send-5-5-billion-in-aid-to-ukraine/

⚡️AP: Ukraine pulls US Abrams tanks from battlefield amid Russian drone threat.
According to senior U.S. military officials, Russian surveillance drones and hunter-killer drones have changed the situation on the ground substantially, increasing the vehicles' risk of detection. https://kyivindependent.com/ap-ukraine-pulls-us-abrams-tanks-from-battlefield-amid-russian-drone-threat/

Spain will send a small number of critically needed Patriot missiles to Ukraine, the El Pais newspaper reported on April 26, citing unnamed government sources, but has ruled out sending the system's anti-aircraft launchers. https://kyivindependent.com/el-pais-spain-to-send-patriot-missiles-to-ukraine/

Greece will not supply Ukraine with Patriot air defense systems or S-300 missiles, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said on April 25. https://kyivindependent.com/greece-wont-send-ukraine-patriots/

When and how will US aid impact the front lines in Ukraine? https://kyivindependent.com/us-aid-military/
After almost seven months of delays, the U.S. Congress approved $61 billion in military aid for Kyiv, which was then swiftly signed by President Biden. While the aid provides vital support, Ukraine still faces challenges with ongoing shortages.
The country's defenders are already in dire straits in some parts of Donetsk Oblast, namely in the town of Chasiv Yar west of occupied Bakhmut. Ukrainian and Western officials said that due to Kyiv's artillery shortages, Russia could outshoot Ukraine's forces 10 to one in some areas. [not an in depth dive but worth reading for an overview, though it feels rather carefully written at points]

Ukraine is planning to discuss how to overcome problems that accumulated over the past six months while waiting for the passing of the U.S. aid package at the next Ramstein summit, Zelensky said in his evening address on April 25. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-ukraine-to-discuss-problems-created-by-delayed-us-aid-during-ramstein-meeting/

The European Parliament overwhelmingly supported a resolution condemning Georgia's controversial foreign agents law in a vote on April 25. https://kyivindependent.com/european-parliament-adopts-resolution-condemning-georgias-foreign-agents-law/

Seventy-four percent of surveyed companies in Ukraine are experiencing a personnel shortage, according to a new study published by the European Business Association (EBA) on April 24. This is a significant increase from the 55% of surveyed employers experiencing a shortage in 2023. https://kyivindependent.com/shortage-of-personnel-in-ukrainian-companies-increased-significantly-since-last-year/

⚡️Denmark announces additional $633 million in military support to Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/denmark-announces-633-million-military-support-to-ukraine/

⚡️70% of energy infrastructure damaged by Russian attacks in Kyiv has been restored, authorities say. https://kyivindependent.com/70-of-energy-infrastructure-damaged-by-russian-shelling-in-kyiv-have-been-restored/

⚡️Ukraine passes list of 561 Ukrainian children held in Russia to Qatar, ombudsman says. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-passes-list-of-561-ukrainian-children-held-in-russia-to-qatar/

Ihor Poshyvailo: Churches, religious sites play special role in Ukraine’s resistance https://kyivindependent.com/ihor-poshyvailo-churches-religious-sites-play-special-role-in-ukraines-resistance/

⚡️Russian spy sentenced to 2.5 years in Poland. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-spy-sentenced-to-2-5-years-in-poland/

⚡️Ukrainians with terminated passports will be allowed to stay in Germany Berlin Senate says. https://kyivindependent.com/berlin-senat-ukrainians-to-be-allowed-to-stay-in-germany-with-terminated-passports/

⚡️ Russian shelling of Nikopol in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast injures 2.
⚡️Russian forces used a KAB guided bomb to hit infrastructure in the northeastern city of Sumy, authorities said on April 25. The Sumy Regional Military Administration said damage and casualties were still being clarified.
⚡️UPDATE: Russian attack on city in Kharkiv Oblast injures at least 10
⚡️Russian strikes against Kharkiv Oblast city of Derhachi injures 4, including 3 children.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦
AT ragnarbjartur.bsky.social
⚡️ RUSSIAN OFFICER DEATHS REACH 4 000
New update from AT killedinukraine.bsky.social 🇨🇿 with 25 🇷🇺 officers
On average, 5.1 have been killed per day (5.3 in the last four batches)

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦

• APR 26, 2024

■ Engagements & casualties well above 7-day avg ■ Equipment slightly below avg; special equipment targeted ■ Airstrike ratio stays good, two 🇺🇦 artillery strikes reported ■ KIU: +25 officers; 4k officer deaths now confirmed

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Ukraine will need time until 2026 or 2027 to develop a powerful counteroffensive — The Economist, citing sources.
The article states that a big military breakthrough could be several years away for Ukraine and, even then, only if large-scale Western support is maintained and enhanced.

We have already begun the process of delivering weapons to Ukraine, — US Department of Defense spokesman General Patrick Ryder. We have already begun the process of delivering weapons to Ukraine, — US Department of Defense spokesman General Patrick Ryder.
“Some weapons will be delivered immediately, while others will take a bit longer to transport. At the moment, we have already started the process of delivering some weapons, ammunition and equipment, which will be there within a few days, if not sooner."

European Parliament passes resolution refusing to recognize Putin as the legitimate president of Russia, — Deutsche Welle.
The resolution “On undemocratic presidential elections in Russia and their illegitimate extension to the occupied territories” was supported by 493 deputies, 11 were against, and 18 abstained.

"The supply of the Taurus missile depends on Germany, but with the US decision to provide ATACMS and similar moves by London and Paris to furnish Kyiv with long-range cruise missiles, we are hopeful that this may influence Berlin to reconsider its stance," stated an unnamed senior Pentagon official, as reported by Deutsche Welle.

An essential condition for European security is that Russia not win the war of aggression in Ukraine, — French President Emmanuel Macron during a speech at the Sorbonne University.

US preparing to announce $6 billion in weapons contracts for Ukraine, — Politico.
However, the equipment likely won’t arrive in Ukraine for several years, as the money is being allocated under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which issues contracts to American defense firms to build new equipment for Ukraine, as opposed to drawing from current US stocks.

April 25th marks Freedom Day in Portugal.
Exactly 50 years ago, a revolution took place in Lisbon, putting an end to the longest dictatorship in Europe. The values of freedom have been important to Portugal ever since. https://t.me/United24media/21206

🥇Daria Bilodid, a 23-year-old Ukrainian, won the European judo championship in Croatia.

Rescuers in the Kherson region got under repeated shelling by Russian forces.

Ukrzaliznytsia has become the target of massive Russian attacks. As a result of an enemy shelling in the Donetsk region, three railroad workers were killed while working. All three were electricians on the railroad. Four workers sustained shrapnel wounds and contusions. They are currently hospitalized.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Russians plan to show German equipment damaged in Ukraine on May 9 in Moscow - BILD
The occupying army has brought dozens of samples of Western equipment from 12 countries that it managed to capture or destroy at the front: Leopard tank, Bradley infantry fighting vehicle, Marder infantry fighting vehicle, etc.

Last year, Ukraine spent 37% of GDP on defense. In 2022, it was 26%

Kharkiv, Ukraine. Kid in a bulletproof vest is waiting for KFC order

Macron's Sorbonne speech: geopolitique.eu/en/2024/04/26/macron-europe-it-can-die-a-new-paradigm-at-the-sorbonne/