Ukraine Invasion: Part 48

[MagicFox]

That last one went quickly! Welcome to thread 48. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-23-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu highlighted ongoing Russian offensive operations near Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City and announced Russia’s intent to intensify its strike campaign to disrupt Ukrainian logistics.
• Shoigu also discussed ongoing Russian military reforms during his April 23 MoD collegium address, cloaking ongoing expansion efforts in an information operation meant to falsely frame all Russian military activity as inherently defensive and responsive to supposed NATO aggression.
• Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Akbar Ahmadian traveled to St. Petersburg on April 23 to attend the 12th Russian International Security Summit.
• The Chechen Republic appears to be trying to align itself more closely with Iran over the backdrop of intensifying bilateral security cooperation between Russia and Iran.
• United Kingdom (UK) Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced the UK’s largest ever package of military assistance to Ukraine valued at 500 million pounds (around $662 million) on April 23.
• Moldovan authorities confiscated over one million dollars from Kremlin-linked Moldovan opposition politicians at the Chisinau airport on the night of April 22 to 23, and the opposition politicians likely intended to use to bribe protestors and voters.
• Russian federal censor Roskomnadzor is blocking 150 virtual private network (VPN) services in Russia, another step in the Kremlin’s efforts to further censor and control the Russian information space.
• Ukrainian drone strikes and recent flooding in Russia have reportedly brought weekly Russian oil refining to an 11-month low, although the decrease in refining output has so far been marginal.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar (west of Bakhmut) and Russian forces recently advanced near Donetsk City.
• Prominent Russian milbloggers continue to complain about the ineffectiveness of Russian drones on the battlefield.

It comes down to what your expectations are.

The Pentagon won't release a list of what's being sent in the first tranche until after the president signs the bill, but it will almost certainly be mainly air defense missiles and artillery rounds. Those will take the Russians off the front foot, particularly by pushing the Russian air force back from the front lines so that they can no longer drop glide bombs on Ukrainian positions.

There have been reports that later groupings of military equipment will include ATACMS missiles, but they've been vague about what variant. If it's the long range version with the unitary warhead, Russian targets in Crimea are now at risk. That would force the Russians to pull some assets back and force other tactical changes. You always want the enemy reacting to you, not vice versa.

The news on ATACMS makes some sense. The Army has now received substantial numbers of the weapon that is replacing the ATACMS, the PSM. So the concern about giving up large numbers of ATACMS is no longer relevant.

Labour have said during PMQ's they won't match the Tory's proposed increase in defence spend.
Very shortsighted.

Previously said they wanted to do 2.5% and wills wait to see the state of the coffers before seeing if they could go further. Have they now abandoned this?

Angela Rayner : "“We all want 2.5%, the difference is we haven’t cut the army to its smallest size since Napoleon”

Actually the news alert from The Telegraph was a little misleading. You're right Labour are 'hoping' to match the 2.5% but not committing to it. I'd prefer to see it ring fenced.

The actual report:

I don’t think Labour will say they will commit to anything until they see the books (assuming they win any GE)

In any event there’s a lot of head scratching going on about what exactly has been promised and how much of it will translate into the really important stuff - ordnance/personnel, and how much of it will get swallowed up by things like funding pensions, cash to industry to further R&D, etc etc…

Some brief analysis here , obviously lots of other thoughts available:

https://news.sky.com/story/confusion-reigns-despite-sunaks-shift-in-tone-on-defence-spending-13121827

I don't believe the Tories for one second, it's an empty election promise they know they're unlikely to have to deliver on , but they'll be able to use it to hammer Labour over the head once they're in. It's pathetic given the crisis we're in. Gordon brown spent more than 2.5%

Lots of cries about needing the money elsewhere online : this needs to change. The public need to understand that we have to accept cuts elsewhere to fund our defence. Because, ultimately, all the nice things will mean nothing if we find ourselves at war because of our crap deterrence and underfunded force. History is back, the peace dividend is over. The public need to get behind it - how to get the message out there loud and clear?

Oh and a civil defence plan would be a good idea wouldn't it?

This with loud, shiny, ringing bells on. If we end up in a global conflict everything else will have to take a back seat. I don’t understand why people can’t grasp this!

I was taught that the first duty of the state is to protect the people.

I have also read vast amounts of history.

This has tended to make a bit of a hawk when it comes to defence.

Absolutely, the first duty of the state IS to protect its people. That's not what's happening now. It's shockingly bad. I can't take any more bollocks about investing in our children's future (with pics of smiling party leaders at primary schools) when it's their very future that is being gambled with. I am very cross! And frustrated

Winston Churchill must be spinning in his grave at 78rpm and remembering all the shilly-shallying in the twenties and thirties, when he seemed at times to be the only person taking the threat seriously.

My understanding is that almost three times that spent on defence is spent on health and social care. Nobody wants to see cuts in these areas but it's clear that some necessary juggling will have to take place and we will have to accept it. No point moaning about cuts to the NHS when you think about how the NHS would (not) cope with mass military and civilian casualties in the event of war. The govt need to do what's right to protect the state and privilege this over popularity points in the polls. It's crap, of course it's crap. But we're at the point where we have to choose our poison.

The Telegraph reports that Ukraine will receive the long-range (190-mile) version of the ATACMS. This link should work; if not, let me know, and I'll copy and paste the article. I suspect that when they arrive, Russian air defense assets will be the highest priority, as that will reduce the threat to the slower, more vulnerable Storm Shadow missiles the UK recently committed to sending.

www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/04/24/weapons-ukraine-61bn-us-aid-boost-himars-howitzer/

Biden has signed 👍

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

The U.S. Senate passed the foreign aid bill in a vote on April 23, paving the way to provide $60.84 billion for Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/senate/

⚡️BREAKING: Biden signs (https://kyivindependent.com/breaking-biden-signs-aid-bill-into-law-in-final-step-of-securing-61-billion-of-aid-for-ukraine/ $61 billion aid bill for Ukraine.

⚡️ Reuters: The U.S. is preparing a military aid package for Ukraine worth $1 billion, Reuters reported on April 23, citing two unnamed American officials. https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-us-preparing-1-billion-military-aid-package-for-ukraine/

⚡️ Reuters: Russia's April oil and gas revenue https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-russias-april-oil-and-gas-revenue-to-double/ to double compared to 2023, slightly drop from March.

⚡️CNN: Some US military aid for Ukraine already in Poland, Germany, cutting down the time needed for the weapons and equipment to reach the front line, CNN reported on April 23, citing a source familiar with the provision of aid. https://kyivindependent.com/cnn-some-us-military-aid-already/

⚡️ Ambassador: Ukraine, US in talks to set up joint production of Patriot systems
Kyiv is pushing Washington for the joint production of Patriot air defense systems to help Ukraine fend off Russia's war, Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova said in an interview with European Pravda on April 23. https://kyivindependent.com/ambassador-ukraine-in-talks-to-set-up-joint-production-of-patriot-systems/

⚡️Military: Russian forces are deploying chemical weapons in an attempt to capture the village of Ocheretyne in Donetsk Oblast, Nazar Voloshyn, the spokesperson for Ukraine's Khortytsia Group of Forces, said on April 23. https://kyivindependent.com/military-russian-forces-using-chemical-weapons-to-storm-ocheretyne-situation-difficult/

Russian forces have launched over 20 missiles at the Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) since the beginning of this year, Zaporizhzhia Oblast Governor Ivan Fedorov said on national television on April 23. https://kyivindependent.com/governor-over-20-russian-missiles-targeted-dnipro-hydroelectric-power-plant-in-2024/

Ukraine faces power deficits caused by Russian attacks on its energy system, forcing Kyiv to temporarily restrict power supply to businesses and industrial facilities on April 23, Ukraine's state-owned energy operator Ukrenergo reported.
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-faces-energy-deficits-to-restrict-power-supply-for-business-industry/

⚡️ Denmark to allocate around $450 million for Ukraine's reconstruction, energy sector. https://kyivindependent.com/denmark-to-allocate-450-million-for-ukraines-reconstruction-energy/

⚡️North Korea sends delegation to Iran. kyivindependent.com/north-korea-sends-delegation-to-iran/

⚡️Ukraine reportedly suspending consular, passport services for military-age men abroad. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-suspending-consular-passport-services-for-military-age-men-abroad/

⚡️Ukraine's parliament passes https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-parliament-adopts-law-adapting-education-policy-to-match-eu-standards/ law adapting education policy to match EU standards.
Ukraine's parliament passed a bill with overwhelming support on the second reading that adapts the country's education policy to match EU standards, Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said on April 23.

Russia's Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov, Russia's top official in charge of the country's construction of military facilities, was detained on April 23 on the suspicion of receiving a bribe, Russia's Investigative Committee announced.

https://kyivindependent.com/russias-deputy-defense-minister-detained-on-suspicions-of-bribery/

⚡️ NYT: Project Maven AI having mixed results on Ukraine's battlefields.
A massive and experimental artificial intelligence (AI) project developed by the U.S. military has had mixed results on the battlefields of Ukraine, as those behind it struggle to get "21st-century data into 19th-century trenches," the New York Times (NYT) reported on April 23.
Project Maven began in 2017 and is the Pentagon's main effort at adopting the still fledgling field of AI for war, paving the way for algorithms to make decisions instead of soldiers and commanders. kyivindependent.com/nyt-project-maven-ai-having-mixed-results-on-ukraines-battlefields/

⚡️ Ukraine receives 1.5 billion euros https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-receives-1-5-billion-euros-from-eu-in-second-tranche-of-financial-aid/ from EU in second tranche of financial aid. The EU approved the four-year Ukraine Facility in February, allocating 33 billion euros ($35 billion) in loans and 17 billion euros ($18 billion) in grants.

⚡️ Poll: 62% of Ukrainians say they are prepared to fight for country. Ukrainians have the highest readiness to fight for their country among European countries, at 62% of the population, according to a survey by the Sociological Group Rating conducted in 2023 with Gallup International and published on April 23. https://kyivindependent.com/poll-62-of-ukrainians-prepared-to-fight-for-country/

⚡️Ukraine's UN envoy: Russia uses sexual violence as weapon of war.
Citing testimony from people released from Russian captivity, Ukraine's Permanent Representative to the United Nations Security Council Sergiy Kyslytsya said that over 50 percent of detainees suffered torture, rape, or other forms of sexual violence. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-un-envoy-russia-uses-sexual-violence-as-weapon-of-war/

⚡️ Ombudsman: Children in occupied Ukraine https://kyivindependent.com/children-in-occupied-ukraine-forced-to-make-trench-candles/ 'forced to make trench candles.'
Russian authorities in occupied Ukraine are forcing students to make trench candles as part of their curriculum, Ukraine's Chief Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said on April 23.

While it is difficult to directly attribute events in Ukraine to the delay in passing the US aid bill, what is certain is the situation has significantly deteriorated on several fronts during this time. Western and Ukrainian officials, including Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky and his U.S. counterpart, Joe Biden, were not shy in attributing blame.

⚡️ Trump praises House speaker after vote on Ukraine aid.
Former U.S. President and presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump voiced support for House Speaker Mike Johnson, who allowed a vote on military aid for Ukraine after months of delays, the Guardian reported on April 23. https://kyivindependent.com/trump-praises-speaker-johnson/

⚡️ Reuters: Canada grants Airbus waiver against sanctions on Russian titanium. https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-canada-grants-airbus-waiver-against-sanctions-on-russia-titanium/

⚡️Multiple explosions, damage to residential buildings reported in Kharkiv.
⚡️Explosions reported in Odesa.
⚡️Russia attacks 11 communities in Sumy Oblast, injuring 4.

⚡️Drone attack causes fire at energy facility in Russia's Smolensk Oblast.
⚡️Ukrainian drones reportedly hit an oil refinery in Voronezh Oblast and an "industrial zone" in Lipetsk Oblast overnight on April 24, according to Russian Telegram news channels.
⚡️Drones of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) attacked two oil depots in Russia's Smolensk Oblast overnight, destroying 26,000 cubic meters of fuel, sources in law enforcement agencies told the Kyiv Independent on April 24.

⚡️Hugo Boss to sell its Russian subsidiary. https://kyivindependent.com/hugo-boss-to-sell-its-russian-subsidiary/

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦

• APR 24, 2024

■ Combat engagements & casualties rise above 7-day average ■ Equipment losses above average as well; significant artillery losses ■ Increased 🇺🇦 strikes; best strike ratios in a while

Sooooo now the Bill is signed ....

On another note, interesting info on the experimental AI on the battlefield.

⚡️CNN: Some US military aid for Ukraine already in Poland, Germany, cutting down the time needed for the weapons and equipment to reach the front line, CNN reported on April 23, citing a source familiar with the provision of aid. https://kyivindependent.com/cnn-some-us-military-aid-already/
I was hoping this would be the case.

Russian forces are deploying chemical weapons in an attempt to capture the village of Ochere

I'm worried about russia's increasing use of banned chemical weapons - surely this should bring about some sort of retaliatory action/threat - otherwise they are emboldened to go further.
Ukraine has to fight within the rule book and with constraints, russia seems to do what it likes.

Also WTF??? Trump praising Mike Johnson when Trumps interventions have been nothing but detrimental to getting the aid bill passed.

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

New US military aid will not be enough to defeat Russia, — Dmytro Kuleba.
“Not a single package can stop the Russians. What will stop the Russians is a united front of all of Ukraine and all of its partners,” the Foreign Minister said.
Kuleba also called on the West to increase arms production, as Russia currently produces about ten times more weapons amid a shortage of air defense equipment in Ukraine.
“The West must realize that the era of peace in Europe is over,” the head of Ukrainian diplomacy said.

Most of the arms from the new US aid package for Ukraine are already in warehouses in Germany and Poland, — CNN.
The source reported that the shells will be among the first supplies to be delivered to Ukraine.
Officials in Kyiv will look to get it where it is needed as quickly as they can — but doing so will still present a considerable logistical challenge given the sheer quantity of material involved.
Therefore, even with the rapid approval of the first aid package, the advantage that Russia currently has will not be eliminated immediately.

France is asking the European Union to set up a new sanctions regime to target Russian disinformation and election interference operations worldwide, — Bloomberg. The article says that the proposal, which is backed by Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, and Poland, would allow the EU to strengthen sanctions against individuals and entities involved in Russian-sponsored destabilizing activities globally.
The draft paper says that “destabilizing activities executed by Russia-related actors have increased everywhere in Europe as well – as the Russian regime has taken actions to undermine democracy, stability, and the rule of law through a variety of hybrid instruments.”

The Long Neptune Is Ukraine’s Favorite Missile For Swatting Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. More And More Are Rolling Off The Production Line, — Forbes.

US prepares $1 billion military aid package for Ukraine, — Reuters, citing a US official. The aid package includes vehicles, Stinger air defense munitions, additional ammunition for high-mobility artillery rocket systems, 155 millimeter artillery ammunition, TOW and Javelin anti-tank munitions and other weapons that can immediately be put to use on the battlefield, the officials said.

ATACMS are on their way to Ukraine. What’s the big deal? https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/atacms-the-essential-tool-for-missile-domination-is-on-its-way-to-ukraine-113

🇱🇹Lithuania has supplied the Ukrainian army with an undisclosed number of M577 armored command vehicles. They have already been delivered to the territory of Ukraine.

Testing of newly developed searchlights with a thermal imager and laser targeting for mobile air defense groups.
▫️ Ukrainian development based on imported and domestic components;
▫️ high-energy laser;
▫️ a professional searchlight and thermal imaging module that work in a coordinated manner to accurately identify and track the target even in difficult conditions.
The tests were conducted on several types of UAVs. Engineers are already working on the next iterations and new models.

The UK will provide Ukraine with Paveway IV bombs as part of a new military aid package, writes BBC correspondent Jonathan Beale.
The Paveway IV is a GPS or laser-guided precision bomb with a range of more than 30 kilometers, depending on the altitude and flight path. Its weight is 230 kilograms. This bomb is an analog of the American JDAM and French AASM.

I'm making sure that shipments start right away. In the next few hours, we will begin sending in equipment to Ukraine for air defense, munitions for artillery and rocket systems, and armored vehicles, — Joe Biden.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba commented on the information that men abroad may be suspended from receiving consular services:
"Staying abroad does not release a citizen from his or her duties to the homeland. That is why yesterday I instructed to take measures to restore fair treatment of men of mobilization age in Ukraine and abroad. It will be fair. Soon, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs will provide clarification on the procedure for obtaining consular services within the framework of the law for men of mobilization age in foreign diplomatic missions as we approach the entry into force of the law "On Amendments to Certain Legislative Acts of Ukraine on Certain Issues of Military Service, Mobilization and Military Registration."

🇩🇪🇬🇧 German opposition calls on https://www.n-tv.de/politik/09-55-Russischer-Front-Durchbruch-bei-Otscheretyne-Buechse-der-Pandora-ist-geoeffnet-Brigadefuehrer-schuld--article23143824.html British Prime Minister Sunak to put pressure on Chancellor Scholz to supply Ukraine with Taurus cruise missiles

Shortly after the President signed the bill, the Pentagon released the list of what's on the way to Ukraine. Most of it was reported staged in Poland, so it's already crossing the border into Ukraine.

No surprises really. It's mostly air defense and various types of artillery ammo.

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3754238/biden-administration-announces-significant-new-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

What do you make of reports of the US secretly sending longer range Army Tactical Missile System missiles (being reported by Sky). I know literally nothing about military hardware.