Ukraine Invasion: Part 48

[MagicFox]

That last one went quickly! Welcome to thread 48. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

I've seen this before, he does talk a lot of sense

Glad for the vote of confidence in Beau's views. I have been unfair to him. I am increasingly wary of stuff out there so needed a sense check.

Holy fuck someone has set himself on fire outside of the court where Trump’s case is being heard.

What?! Any further details? Haven't seen this yet

He had apparently been throwing flyers which said "NYU is a mob front", which makes it even stranger if possible. Because I assume NYU isn't a Trump organisation, or opposed to Trump either?

More here, although it doesn't mention the flyers. NYU is a very prestigious private university, with no connection to Trump that I'm aware of. DH got his master's degree there, so I'll ask him.

https://nypost.com/2024/04/18/us-news/trumps-hush-money-nyc-trial-live-updates-photos-and-analysis-from-jury-selection/

The man is from Florida, so I'll guess that he did it in front of the courthouse because of the dozens of news crews there.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-17-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces struck a Russian military airfield in occupied Dzhankoi, Crimea, overnight on April 16 to 17.
• Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reportedly targeted Russian aviation assets in the Republic of Mordovia, the Republic of Tatarstan, and Samara Oblast on April 17.
• Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov officially confirmed on April 17 that Russian peacekeeping forces began their anticipated withdrawal from Nagorno-Karabakh, as Russian sources largely blamed Armenian leadership for Azerbaijan’s seizure of Nagorno-Karabakh amid Armenia’s continued efforts to distance itself from political and security relations with Russia.
• The Georgian parliament approved a bill in its first reading similar to Russia’s “foreign agents” law on April 17, which Russian state media seized on to further Kremlin efforts to amplify reports of political discord in Western and former Soviet states.
• US President Joe Biden warned that Russia and its partners pose an increasing threat to NATO and stressed that US security assistance to Ukraine can address the Russian threat.
• The US House of Representatives filed a supplemental appropriations bill on April 17 that would provide roughly $60 billion of assistance to Ukraine, and will reportedly vote on the measure on April 20.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and Donetsk City.
• The Kremlin-controlled Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) is preparing a special training course for ROC clergy deployed to combat zones in Ukraine.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-18-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov specified that the Russian offensive effort that Ukrainian officials have been forecasting will likely begin in June 2024.
• Budanov also stated on April 17 that Ukraine plans to counter future Russian offensive operations by continuing strikes against Russian military targets within Russia.
• Russian forces reportedly continue to intensify crypto-mobilization efforts ahead of the expected Russian summer 2024 offensive operation but will likely struggle to establish effective operational- and strategic-level reserves rapidly.
• Ukrainian officials clarified that the Ukrainian strike on a Russian military airfield in occupied Dzhankoi, Crimea overnight on April 16 to 17 caused significant damage to Russian air defense equipment.
• Russian milbloggers seized on a violent crime committed by a migrant in Moscow on April 18 to reiterate calls for further restrictions in Russian migration policies.
• German authorities detained two individuals suspected of aiding Russia in its ongoing efforts to sabotage NATO member states’ military infrastructure and logistics.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and Donetsk City.
• Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s (RFE/RL) “Schemes” investigative project, citing Ukrainian intelligence, reported on April 17 that Russia’s defense industry is using US- and Japanese-made components in the navigation and communication systems of Russian Sukhoi fixed wing aircraft.

Here’s a really good article from the WSJ on what’s in the four bills the House is moving forward with and how the politics is playing out. It’s obvious that Trump has laid down the law that he doesn’t want Johnson to be removed from the post of Speaker.

https://www.wsj.com/politics/mike-johnsons-ukraine-israel-package-faces-critical-house-vote-1f11827c?st=gk58uhaaya561fh&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

@ivanastradner

Russia says the West is opening a new front in the Balkans to distract from Ukraine’s loses on the battlefield. They announce the first destabilization in May…

Translation:

Russia is opening a second front in the Balkans to distract the West from its loses in Ukraine.

...Mike Johnson did mention the Balkans in his speech when he talked about receiving intelligence that had influenced his decision. Let's see

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-19-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov signaled Russia’s intent to seize Kharkiv City in a future significant Russian offensive operation, the first senior Kremlin official to outright identify the city as a possible Russian operational objective following recent Ukrainian warnings that Russian forces may attempt to seize the city starting in Summer 2024.
• Ukrainian officials announced that Ukrainian forces downed a Russian aircraft as it conducted missile strikes against Ukraine for the first time overnight on April 18 to 19, demonstrating a capability that may constrain how Russia conducts its strike campaign against Ukraine.
• Ukrainian air defense capabilities remain limited and degraded, however, allowing Russian aircraft to operate freely without threat on certain critical areas of the front.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stressed that Ukraine requires Western provisions of artillery ammunition, air defense materiel, long-range artillery and missile systems, and fighter aircraft as Ukrainian constraints continue due to delays in US military assistance.
• Pro-Russian Moldovan actors continue to set conditions to justify possible future Russian aggression in Moldova as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov compared Moldova to Ukraine and Armenia.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to expand the newly reformed Leningrad Military District (LMD) in preparation for an anticipated future large-scale conventional conflict with NATO.
• Russian officials continue to forcibly deport and Russify Ukrainian children as Ukrainian authorities work to return deported children to Ukrainian-controlled territory.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡Blinken: China 'primary contributor' (https://kyivindependent.com/blinken-china-primary-contributor-to-russias-military-industrial-complex/) to Russia's military-industrial complex.

⚡At NATO-Ukraine Council, Stoltenberg says (https://kyivindependent.com/at-nato-ukraine-council-stoltenberg-says-allies-pledge-more-air-defense-systems/) allies pledge more air defense systems.

⚡️ Netherlands allocates over $210 million (https://kyivindependent.com/netherlands-allocates-over-210-million-for-ammunition-for-ukraine/) for ammunition for Ukraine to new initiatives for quick delivery of air defense and artillery ammunition for Ukraine

'No region in Ukraine endures hell (https://kyivindependent.com/no-region-in-ukraine-endures-hell-like-donetsk-oblast-governor-says-of-russias-war/) like Donetsk Oblast,' governor says of Russia's war. Difficulty in evacuating civilians in front-line areas, building up fortifications to prevent further Russian advances, and the devastation the war has wrought on Ukraine’s once-industrial powerhouse of a region.

⚡️ Governor: Russia’s war destroys over 100,000 residential buildings (https://kyivindependent.com/governor-russias-war-destroys-over-100-000-residential-buildings-in-donetsk-oblast/) in Donetsk Oblast, including over 7,000 high-rise apartment blocks, in Donetsk Oblast.

⚡️ Russia attacks first responders (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-attacks-first-responders-in-dnipropetrovsk-oblast-no-casualties-reported/) in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, no casualties reported.

The factory working 24/7 to make shells for Ukraine belonging to Norwegian-Finnish defense company Nammo, one of Europe’s foremost manufacturers of NATO-standard shells.

⚡️ Top Russian colonel reportedly killed (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-commander-pavel-kropotov/) in Ukrainian strike on occupied Luhansk.

⚡Media: Pentagon ready to quickly send (https://kyivindependent.com/media-pentagon-ready-to-quickly-send-ukraine-arms-ammunition-if-congress-approves-aid-bill/) Ukraine arms if Congress approves aid bill.

Ukraine’s Bohdana howitzer (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-bohdana-howitzer-is-rolling-off-production-lines-heres-what-it-can-do/) is rolling off production lines. The Bohdana – or the 2S22 Bohdana to give it its full title – is a self-propelled howitzer, essentially an artillery gun on a truck chassis with a 42-kilometer firing range.

Ukraine war latest: First Russian Tu-22M3 bomber downed (https://kyivindependent.com/air-force-ukraine-downs-russian-tu-22m3-bomber-for-first-time/), strikes in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast kill 7

⚡Russian finance minister says GDP expected to grow (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-finance-minister-says-gdp-expected-to-grow-3-6-in-2024-matching-2023s-rate/) 3.6% in 2024, matching 2023's rate.

⚡️ Senate Democrats back Johnson's foreign aid bills. (https://kyivindependent.com/senate-democrats-back-johnsons-foreign-aid-bills/) Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said: "If the House sends a national security package, we'll move quickly to send it to (U.S. President Joe Biden), ... I hope the House gets it done—delay has cost the U.S. and our allies dearly."

⚡️ Ukraine's ambassador 'cautiously optimistic' about upcoming US aid vote. (https://kyivindependent.com/ambassador-we-are-working-with-congress-non-stop-to-convince-them-to-pass-ukraine-aid/) The Ukrainian representation in the U.S. is working "non-stop" with American lawmakers to convince them to pass the Ukraine aid bill, scheduled for a vote this weekend, Ukraine's ambassador to the U.S., Oksana Markarova.

⚡️ Republican lawmaker hits out at colleagues: 'They would like to see Russia win.' (https://kyivindependent.com/they-would-like-to-see-russia-win-republican-lawmaker-hits-out/) In an interview with C-SPAN, Don Bacon laid out the dire situation Ukraine finds itself in on the battlefield, saying if the bills do not pass, "the Russians will be in Kyiv."

⚡Update: Zelensky says Russian missile strike (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-missile-attack-on-odesa-oblast-injures-civilian/) on Odesa Oblast struck Pivdennyi Port, damaging Singaporean company's export terminal.

⚡️Guardian: Half of British military defense fund (https://kyivindependent.com/guardian-half-of-british-military-defense-fund-for-ukraine-remains-unused/)for Ukraine remains unused due to bureaucratic delays in handing out contracts

⚡️Source: Ukrainian drones (https://kyivindependent.com/source-ukraine-targeted-russias-energy-facilities-fueling-military-industrial-complex-at-night/) strike Russian military fuelling facilities overnight.

⚡️Prosecutor's Office: At least 545 children have been killed (https://kyivindependent.com/prosecutors-office-at-least-545-children-have-been-killed-since-beginning-of-full-scale-invasion/) since beginning of full-scale invasion and at least 1,843 children have been killed or injured since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022

⚡️Nearly 40,000 Slovak citizens raise (https://kyivindependent.com/slovak-citizens-raise-2-8-for-czech-ammunition-initiative-after-governments-refusal-to-contribute/) $2.8 million for Czech ammunition initiative after government refuses to contribute, with an average donation worth 64 euros ($68), according to the "Ammunition for Ukraine" website

⚡️Zelensky: Ukraine could sign (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-ukraine-prepares-to-sign-bilateral-security-agreements-with-us-nordic-baltic-states/) bilateral security agreements with US, Nordic, Baltic states in near future.

I'm aware that not everyone finds Beau easy to tolerate, but I found this quite a useful round-up of one view of the state of play in Ukraine.

(When he talks about the difficult phase that hasn't started yet he means occupying hostile territory in the long term, and just how many people that takes to enforce and how hard it is to do.)

Just read the House of Reps have passed the bill.

Thank God, thank God, thank God.

I heard the same thank heavens

I feel such a sense of relief at that news.💙💛

Maybe the candle that I lit actually worked. (just joking really, but even so)

Thank God 🙏 let's hope it's not too late to stop an emboldened russia.
I also hope the good news keeps coming, I've felt so despondent lately, not only about the situation in Ukraine, but all the madness in the wider world. We really are a particularly stupid destructive race.

There’s a very unpleasant thread at the moment about Ukranian refugees. Looks like some more of our trolling friends are contributing.

Give us a clue and I might wander over there and stick my oar in. I need a displacement activity this evening: I have a chore I ought to be doing and a strong wish not to bother just now.

@AskingQuestionsAllTheTime I am sorry to say I don’t know how to add the thread link but it’s called Ukrainian House Guest Doesn’t Want to Leave.

Great news about the bill! 💙💛

<Crying with relief>

Ukraine aid bill passed 311 to 112 with all Democrats and less than half of Republicans in support.

💙💛🙏🙏🙏💙💛

Great news indeed. Here are the details for anyone interested in them.

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/proposed-ukraine-israel-aid-package-to-go-to-final-house-vote-dc9ed164?st=h8yuow0jyfr2eyh&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

The US Department of Defense has critical ammunition and supplies ready to ship as soon as the bill clears Congress and expects it to reach the front lines in less than a week.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1781675437740969985

That is good news