Ukraine Invasion: Part 48

[MagicFox]

That last one went quickly! Welcome to thread 48. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
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Pleasure :-)

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

The situation on Ukraine's eastern front has "significantly deteriorated in recent days" amid an intensification of Russia's offensive efforts, the Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine's Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi said on April 13. https://kyivindependent.com/syrskyi-situation-on-eastern-front-has-significantly-deteriorated-in-recent-days/

⚡️ Bloomberg: Ukrainian army collapse 'cannot be ruled out,' US official says.
The possibility of a collapse of Ukraine's army "cannot be ruled out" and Ukraine is at its "most fragile moment in over two years of war," according to U.S. officials, Bloomberg reported on April 11.
According to the anonymous official, the U.S. "doesn't see any signs of an imminent breakthrough by Russian forces."
Ukraine is, however, at its "most fragile moment in over two years of war, according to Western officials with knowledge of the situation," Bloomberg said.

⚡️Reuters: US officials say https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-us-officials-say-china-aids-russias-massive-military-expansion/ China aids Russia's massive military expansion.
According to one official, supplies from China are helping Russia launch its "most ambitious defense expansion since the Soviet era and on a faster timeline than we believed possible early on in this conflict."

⚡️ Putin claims Russian attacks https://kyivindependent.com/putin-claimed-massive-russian-strikes-on-ukraines-energy-infrastructure-are-response/ on Ukraine's infrastructure 'response' for strikes on Russian energy facilities, Russian state-controlled news agency Interfax reported on April 11. [that so? so what was the first wave of devastating attacks in 2022 about?]

⚡️Shmyhal: Ukraine to purchase electronic warfare https://kyivindependent.com/shmyhal-ukraine-to-purchase-electronic-warfare-to-protect-critical-infrastructure/ systems to protect critical infrastructure.
Ukraine's government will allocate funds for the purchase of electronic warfare systems to protect Ukrainian critical infrastructure, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on April 12

Ukraine is conducting "active negotiations" with its partners to receive two additional batteries of the Patriot air defense system and one long-range SAMP/T anti-aircraft missile battery, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said in an excerpt from an interview aired on April 12. https://kyivindependent.com/kuleba-ukraine-in-talks-to-get-2-patriot-1-samp-t-batteries/

The European Council has approved a law on the prosecution of violation or circumvention of EU sanctions, mainly concerning the sanctions against Russia, the body's press service reported on April 12. https://kyivindependent.com/european-council-adopts-law-on-criminal-offences-penalties-for-eu-sanctions-violation/
The Council listed helping to bypass a travel ban, trading in sanctioned goods, and performing prohibited financial activities among the actions that could be considered as criminal offences. Inciting, aiding, and abetting also can be penalized.

⚡️Bloomberg: US sanctions https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-us-sanctions-office/ office looks into chip supply companies over use in Russia's war.

⚡️Military: 'Thousands' of Ukrainian soldiers https://kyivindependent.com/military-thousands-of-ukrainian-soldiers-sent-to-combat-units-as-part-of-rotation/ sent to combat units after armed forces audit.
"Thousands" of Ukrainian soldiers not previously serving on the front line have been sent to combat units, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported on April 12.

Unequipped and outgunned, Ukrainian military often can’t evacuate its wounded https://kyivindependent.com/unequipped-and-outgunned-ukrainian-military-often-cant-evacuate-its-wounded/
At heavily shelled positions close to Russian troops, soldiers say that medical evacuation doesn't exist. The main reason for the absence of medical evacuation is simple and gruesome: The fighting is just too intense.
Unlike Russia, Ukraine is already facing a critical manpower shortage, especially in the infantry, as it struggles to find recruits to refill the heavy losses. Every soldier lost to poor evacuation is another that has to be replaced, writes Asami Terajima in her latest field report.

WSJ: the IAEA received reports from inspectors stationed at the plant indicating that Russia wants to restart at least one of the ZNPP reactors sometime this year. https://kyivindependent.com/wsj-putin-wants-to-restart-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-power-plant/

Nova Group has set up a company that will generate energy on a regular basis, including both solar and gas power, the group's co-owner Volodymyr Popereshniuk announced on April 12. https://kyivindependent.com/nova-group-sets-up-company-for-electricity-generation/

⚡️ Ukraine additionally allocates close to $100 million for fortifications. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-additionally-allocates-close-to-100-million-for-fortifications/

US, UK jointly expand https://kyivindependent.com/us-uk-jointly-expand-sanctions-against-russian-metals/ sanctions against Russian metals.
The new action will block Russian metal producers from profits from the London Metal Exchange (LME) and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).

⚡️ Media: EU to consider additional restrictions https://kyivindependent.com/media-european-commission-to-consider-additional-restrictions-on-ukrainian-carriers-traveling-in-poland/ on Ukrainian carriers in Poland.
Apart from additional checks, GPS devices could be installed on the vehicles, allowing tracking of their destination in Poland and ensuring compliance with their declarations, according to RMF24's sources.

⚡️Tajik foreign minister criticizes https://kyivindependent.com/tajik-foreign-minister-criticizes-treatment-of-moscow-attack-suspects-crackdown-on-tajiks-in-russia/ treatment of Moscow attack suspects, crackdown on Tajiks in Russia.

Ukrainian soldiers and police officers who serve directly at the contact line of the front will receive an additional payment of Hr 70,000 ($1,785) per month, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced on April 12. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-approves-additional-payments-to-soldiers-and-police-officers-serving-at-zero-line/

The Netherlands has allocated an additional one billion euros ($1.1 billion) in military aid and 400 million euros ($425 million) for reconstruction, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on April 12 after a phone call with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte. https://kyivindependent.com/netherlands-allocates-additional-1-5-billion-in-aid-for-ukraine/

⚡️ Ukraine brings back bodies of 99 fallen soldiers. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-retrieves-bodies-of-99-fallen-soldiers/

⚡️Flooding in Russia's Orenburg, Kurgan oblasts causes https://kyivindependent.com/flooding-in-russias-orenburg-kurgan-oblasts-causes-widespread-destruction-mass-evacuations/ widespread destruction, mass evacuations.

Inside the movement ( free Ukrainians from Russian captivity
Every weekend, Ukrainians rally to support the families of prisoners of war and advocate for the release of those still in Russian captivity. As of January, 8,000 Ukrainians, both military and civilians, remained in Russian captivity, according to the Ukrainian authorities.

Ragnar Gudmundsson
WAR IN #UKRAINE - APR 13, 2024
■ Most engagements & casualties this month so far
■ Equipment losses above 7-day average; including 20+ tanks & ≈50 APVs
■ Improved air strike ratio but intenseartillery bombardment
■ KIU: +33 officers; 7.4 deaths on average in last 30 days

UNITED24 Media Telegram highlights

According to The Telegraph, Britain is considering the possibility of supplying DragonFire laser weapons to Ukraine. In an interview with the publication, UK Minister of Defense Grant Shapps mentioned that London intends to deploy this new revolutionary weapon in its own military by 2027. However, prototypes could potentially be provided to Ukraine even sooner.

Russia will use up its stocks of old tanks and combat vehicles by mid-2025 — Forbes.
“Russian industry produces 500 or 600 new tanks and maybe a little more than a thousand new fighting vehicles every year. The Russian military loses more than a thousand tanks and close to 2,000 fighting vehicles every year—and the loss rate is increasing,” the article states.

🇺🇸 The USA has imposed a ban on the import of aluminum, copper, and nickel originating from Russia. American companies are now prohibited from engaging in transactions involving metals of Russian origin, including export and re-export. However, these restrictions will not apply to metals from Russia that were produced before April 13, 2024.

Two former Royal Navy minehunter ships, which have been handed over to the Ukrainian navy, have arrived in Portsmouth. They will be used for crew training — Portsmouth News.

German people are more and more afraid of war in Europe and are becoming more in favor of military support for Ukraine, according to a poll by ZDF's Politbarometer.
Every tenth German expects Ukraine to win the war. [meaning 9 in 10 don't ... ]
82 percent of respondents are skeptical that Ukraine will be able to win the war with the support of Western arms. In August, 70 percent thought so.
The number of people who are very concerned about a military conflict in Europe in which the Bundeswehr would have to participate is 53 percent (compared to 39 percent in November).
In this regard, 70 percent of respondents support an increase in funding for the German armed forces, even if it means cutting back on some expenses.
The share of those who support increased military assistance to Ukraine has also risen.

Kuleba stated that negotiations are underway for the acquisition of two Patriot batteries and one SAMP/T system to bolster Ukrainian air defense. He highlighted that the decision to supply Patriot batteries rests with the United States, as it is an American system.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

"The situation on the Eastern Front has significantly worsened in recent days", — Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi.
The Russians significantly intensified offensive actions in the Lyman and Bakhmut directions. In the Pokrovsky direction, they are trying to break through the defenses with dozens of tanks and IFVs.
There are also intense battles for Bohdanivka, at night the enemy broke through to the northern outskirts of the city, the battle is going on.

During his presidency, Trump sincerely believed that Ukraine "should be part of Russia."
This was stated https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/12/trump-russia-ukraine-book-comments** by Fiona Hill, former Director for European and Russian Affairs at the US National Security Council and former Trump adviser, in a new book by NYT reporter David Sanger.
"Trump made it very clear that he believed that Ukraine, and certainly Crimea, should be part of Russia... It was really hard for him to accept that Ukraine is an independent state," Hill said.

Ukraine is using drones funded by volunteers to prevent a Russian advance, as supplies of Western arms dwindle, — Lt Col Pavlo Kurylenko in an interview https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/04/12/only-crowdfunded-drones-holding-the-russians-back-ukraine/ for The Telegraph
"A year ago it was a 'bad situation'. Today the situation with shells and gear is just horrible."

🇨🇦🇫🇷 Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal believe that Ukraine should decide how to defend itself and its people.
This statement comes amid recent criticism from US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, who questioned the impact of Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries on the war.

🇭🇺Hungarian Foreign Minister and Trade Minister Szijjarto has once again called https://telex.hu/sport/2024/04/12/szijjarto-peter-ellenzi-az-orosz-sportolok-kitiltasat-a-parizsi-olimpiarol-haboru-ukrajna for Russian athletes not to be excluded from participating in this year's Olympics in Paris, urging them not to combine "geopolitics" with sports.

🇬🇧UK Defense Secretary says (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/04/12/laser-shoot-down-drones-fitted-royal-navy-within-five-years/) Ukraine may receive prototypes of the latest British DragonFire laser air defense systems, but this may not happen until several years from now

🔥The car of former Security Service of Ukraine officer Vasily Prozorov was blown up in Moscow. Unfortunately, he survived and is now in hospital.
In 2014, Vasily began to cooperate with the Russians and leaked information about the ATO (Anti-terrorist operation). He worked for the SBU until 2018. A few years ago, he fled to Russia.

Russians kill man carrying food to border villages in Chernihiv oblast
According to police, the Russian army fired at the civilian car deliberately.

250,000 Ukrainians without electricity following Russian shelling
Dozens of Patriot SAM Systems are rusting around the world.

Ukraine may receive prototypes of the latest British DragonFire laser air defense systems, but this may not happen until several years from now**

• *Those involved have only just done the first highish energy trials in the field with a prototype so the time scale quoted is credible and not really of much help ATM to Ukraine.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68778338

Is it now time to think about NATO going further to defend Ukraine? What can be done to further aid Ukraine in its existential battle. Personally I feel this is very concerning for NATO and all the high rhetoric about Ukraine joining may be rhetoric (though I desperately hope not).

If we don't aid Ukraine enough can the Baltic states really on our combined power? Is article 5 as steadfast as we believe?

Maybe this is far too hawkish but could it be possible to deploy NATO troops to Kiev and other strategic sites within Ukraine to essentially make parts of Ukraine a NATO protectorate. Would the Russians then dare advance into these regions and risk direct conflict with NATO with all that entails?

The deployment could take place over a number of months with a gradual build up of troops from a range of countries in NATO. The troops would not be there in an offensive capability and it would be debatable how much equipment would be needed as the troop presence would be symbolic of Ukraine being under a fuller NATO protection and obviously any targeting of these troops would be an act of war.

The strategy may entail huge risks obviously but are these risks only going to manifest themselves at some point in the future? We have increased the arms technology supplies to Ukraine in a careful manner and we have seen no evidence of Russia actively looking to take on any NATO country so is now the time for boots on the ground?

I think that because ukraine isn't a NATO state any troops killed there would be seen as russia as fair game without the tenet of article 5 to protect them. It would be a coalition of the willing rather than NATO per se. I do think that's too risky.

@MontBlanc1

interesting point. It seems like we are reaching a point where NATO needs to do something greater (it's just what that greater is). Possibly part of the overall story of this war we miss to some extent is how starting this war is to Ukraine with the obvious impact on civilians and armed forces alike.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68806207

@MagicFox

oK no article 5 but these are NATO troops and would the Russians risk killing NATO troops in number in an obvious way? You would basically take the MAD principle into Ukraine and essentially dare Russia to attack. It would be a massive face off though and maybe the West can't take that risk.

But I don't think it would, I don't think it would "count" that way, if that makes sense. They wouldn't be NATO troops so much as a coalition of the willing. The same defence clauses wouldn't apply. As such, I think it would be a grey area that russia could nicely take advantage of rather than being deterred by it. But this is just my opinion based on no expertise

@MagicFox

maybe it is stretching things a bit but it does seem there needs to be a tangible increase in support to Ukraine now to improve the battlefield situation. I am starting to think Ukraine may be dying a death of a thousand cuts and I was disappointed to see Ukraine's battlefield pressures on 'other news' on the BBC website.

there can be mutual support of allies independent of article 5 though? A coalition of the willing would be NATO in all but name depending on the constituents so any attack on them would be essentially an attack on NATO. It would be a huge risk admittedly but it would call Russia's bluff. Perhaps China would withdraw support of it was Russia in potential conflict with Western troop s with the conflict escalation that would entail and there would be a 'hard' barrier to Russia's territorial ambitions?

A bit off-topic, but Iran has launched a major drone attack against Israel.

Iran Launches Drone Attack at Israel - Drones are expected to reach the country overnight, an Israeli official confirmed

If it does severe damage or causes large-scale casualties, expect Israel to hit back hard. I hope the US will join them in that scenario. Iran is way overdue to relearn the lesson they were taught in Operation Praying Mantis.

I don’t see Iran’s attack as off-topic. It’s all a complicated web of interests isn’t it? And highly worrying. And I don’t know why i didn’t realise this, but find it unnerving that Isreal has to wait several hours before the attacks will hit them. Somehow I thought of missile and drone attacks has been instantaneous. Can’t Isreal shoot them down?

It seems pretty likely lots of them will be shot down, I think it’s as much psychological as physical warfare at this point. Very worrying and it makes me think Ukraine will slip even further down the news bulletin 😭

The drones being talked about are very subsonic (150-200 km/h) so take hours to cross Jordan, Iraq etc…can be fairly easy to shoot down if you have the right kit and they can be detected.

Cruise missiles tend to be higher speed but even so significant flight time- Middling hard to shoot down.

Ballistic missiles have flight times measured in minutes, can be tough to shoot down but it can be done.

One option we might hope for is that the Iranians are just posturing, firing only drones but nothing else.

The bigger worry is this is a coordinated strike with drones/missiles/cruise missiles timed to arrive pretty much together in an attempt to saturate and possibly overwhelm defences.

Thanks @notimagain and @Igotjelly for the explanations. One news report mentions just drones and another mentions drones and missiles. Definitely escalating the situation. No way Netanyahu will negotiate a ceasefire now.

i’m honestly so sick of men with tiny dicks lobbing bombs at one another 😑 the World needs to calm the fuck down!

Iran has launched more than 100 explosives-laden drones at Israel, the Israeli military has said, while declining to immediately confirm media reports that cruise missiles were also part of the attack.

Almost an hour after the drones were launched, Iran fired a “first batch of ballistic missiles”, the official IRNA news agency said. The Israeli network has said that the Iranian drone salvo is expected to reach Israel at 2am local time.

Oddly, apparently Iran has said that is now that and it will take no further action as long as no one retaliates against them.

@MontBlanc1 I don't think Zelenski would risk his country on a bluff, and I don't think that the defenders against tyranny would be happy to follow such orders.

The Russians in Ukraine are systematically dismantling Ukrainian history, identity and way of life in the areas they have invaded. I can't imagine any patriot being happy to hear their country will be handed over.

That card isn't even in the pack.

Re Iran, they might have said it's finished, but who knows how Israel will respond? I can't see them letting it go. Perhaps it will prevent Iran from supplying weapons to Russia?

@MontBlanc1

I really do hope Ukraine isn't being very slowly being thrown under the bus.

I think the slow down of US support is of the most concern and I suppose in a democracy such things will happen trying to get anything through congress.

it's an election year in the US and this may the up some of the USA s bandwidth which is unfortunate but maybe it is then up to the EU to maintain momentum in terms of arms supplies.

it is the moral of Ukrainians that concerns me most. The constant war for more than two years really now seems to be hitting home and the challenge of mobilisation must always be a present one. The moral in Ukraine must suffer when they see weapons shortages and they don't feel they have the overwhelming attention that they had when the war first started.

99% interception rate last night for Iran and no fatallities. Just shows what Ukraine could have if the West truly stepped up and helped them properly!