Ukraine Invasion: Part 48

[MagicFox]

That last one went quickly! Welcome to thread 48. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

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Same

TBF though there are differences…

Israel is a lot smaller than Ukraine so it’s easier to orientate/pack the Air Defences in to protect desired areas.

The US/UK air forces had freedom to operate over at least one nation sitting between Iran and Israel so the waves of drone strikes had been watered down enroute to Israel.

Ukraine AD has a phase of doing very well with supposedly high interception rates for a while (? Well above 90% being claimed at times)….problem they have now is running short of stock…if Israel got involved in a two year plus campaign with their air Defences firing ordnance pretty much every night I doubt we’d be seeing 99% success rates..there was already some talk that Israel was getting slightly concerned about the effect of the Hezbollah rockets attacks on Iron Dome reloads.

@mids2019 @MontBlanc1

Unfortunately, the US clearly doesn't want Ukraine to win. It is so obviously in the US interests (and Europe's) that Ukraine doesn't lose though! This has led to a situation where Ukraine is fighting with one hand tied behind its back. The situation is so bad now that it Ukraine doesn't have a strong negotiating position either. It feels like self-harm on the part of the US. And Europe too.

This is true, the other big difference is of course the willingness of allies to actually put planes in the sky and help with defence. Something Ukraine can only dream of.

Small mercy but given no casualties in Israel, at least it’s 100+ drones not headed for Russia.

It has to be said - it must be said - that without American aid up until last autumn Ukraine would be in a far, far worse position. That aid made all the difference.

Had it been given wholeheartedly, fast, then Russia might well be back in its own borders by now. It wasn't.

But it (and EU help) -did- allow Ukraine to take back large swathes of territory and it simply could not have done that if the US had not helped.

That is true. Just wish aid was given a bit quicker though (from everyone), things could be so much better.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

Russian forces may be preparing for a large-scale offensive in late spring or summer, aiming to capture more land in Ukraine's partially-occupied Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, the Financial Times reported on April 13, citing unnamed Ukrainian and Western officials. https://kyivindependent.com/ft-russia-may-gear-up-large-offensive-kharkiv-assault/

⚡️Germany to send additional Patriot air defense system https://kyivindependent.com/germany-to-send-one-more-patriot-air-defense-system-to-ukraine/ missiles to Ukraine.
Berlin will provide Ukraine with one more Patriot air defense system amid intensified Russian attacks, the German Defense Ministry announced on April 13.

⚡️Zelensky: Ukraine working to secure https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-ukraine-working-to-secure-additional-iris-t-air-defense-system-anti-air-missiles-from-germany/ additional IRIS-T air defense system, anti-air missiles from Germany.

Drone deliveries to the front lines in Ukraine since the start of 2024 are already three times higher than for all of last year, according to the Deputy Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces Vadym Sukharevskyi. https://kyivindependent.com/deputy-commander-drone-deliveries-to-front-line-this-year-already-3-times-higher-than-in-2023/

All six reactors at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) have reached a state of cold shutdown for the first time since October 2022, the International Atomic Energy Agency said in a news release on April 13. https://kyivindependent.com/iaea-all-reactors-at-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-power-plant-put-into-state-of-cold-shutdown/

A machinery factory in the Russian-occupied city of Luhansk came under attack on April 13, Moscow-installed head of the occupied region Leonid Pasechnik claimed. https://kyivindependent.com/missile-strike-machinery-factory-occupied-luhansk/

Ethnic tensions on the rise https://kyivindependent.com/russian-racism-on-the-rise-after-moscow-terrorist-attack/ in Russia, as government attempts to divert attention from war
Following the Moscow mass shooting, in which 144 people were killed, allegedly perpetrated by followers of the Islamic State from Central Asian Tajikistan, Russia's national minorities have witnessed a growing number of attacks and hate.
Anna Gomboeva, PhD candidate at the University of Virginia specializing in Slavic and East European Studies claims that public xenophobia is beneficial for the current regime.

⚡️Poll: Half of French youth willing to fight in Ukraine to defend France.
Over half of young French citizens would fight in Ukraine to defend France, according to a poll cited by Le Parisien.
The Institute for Strategic Studies of the Military School (IRSEM) and the General Directorate for International Relations and Strategy (DGRIS) surveyed 2,300 young people aged between 18 and 25 last summer. The bodies, which are part of France’s Defense Ministry, asked the question: “If the protection of France required the country to engage in the war in Ukraine, would you be ready to defend your country?” https://kyivindependent.com/half-of-french-youth-willing-to-fight-in-ukraine-to-defend-france/ [@notimagain just for interest]

⚡️SBU thwarts https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-thwarts-assassination-attempt-on-kherson-regional-military-administration-head/ assassination attempt on Kherson Regional Military Administration head.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦

• APR 14, 2024

■ Engagements & casualties slightly above 7-day avg ■ Equipment losses slightly below avg; a lot of special equipment ■ 🇷🇺 strikes continue to be at a high level ■ Oryx: 64 🇷🇺 25 🇺🇦 added to records; 30 day ratio stays at 2.7x

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has begun a three-day visit to China, where he will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping. With this visit, Scholz is the first leader of a Western country to visit China this year.

In need of weapons, Ukraine's defence industry is busy innovating and making its own. As the country celebrates Defence Industry Workers' Day, United24 Media takes a look at some of the home-made weapons that are helping Ukraine hold the front against the enemy. https://t.me/United24media/20771

In the Moscow region, the most extensive military training call in a decade has been announced, as reported by The Moscow Times.
Enterprises are required to provide military enlistment offices with detailed information about employees, including names, dates and places of birth, fitness categories, military specialties, ranks, positions, places of residence, and phone numbers.
An employee from one of the military enlistment offices stated, “Letters are being sent to all organizations registered in the Moscow region. Our military enlistment office aims to assemble all conscripts for training in mid-June for a two-week period.”
It is noted that increased quotas for call-ups may also be implemented in other regions of Russia. The decree issued by Putin regarding “partial mobilization” in September 2022 remains in effect indefinitely, according to the publication.

This year, Lithuania will allocate 1.2 billion euros to the EU's support fund for Ukraine. The funds will be used for purchasing ammunition and military equipment, as well as enhancing the security system in Ukrainian schools, according to Agnė Bilotaitė, Lithuania's Minister of Internal Affairs.
Bilotaitė emphasized that both the Lithuanian authorities and the population recognize the significance of providing aid to Ukraine. Despite being a small country with a population of three million people, Lithuania is committed to offering substantial support, understanding the current fight as one that impacts them directly.

In an interview with Die Tageszeitung, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz refrained from directly addressing whether he supports Ukraine’s undisputed victory. When questioned about the possibility of negotiations and compromises, Scholz emphasized the importance of preventing Russia from winning the war, stating, “Russia should not win this war.” He acknowledged the prolonged nature of the conflict, indicating that supplying weapons and ammunition to Ukraine will be necessary for an extended period.

Nevertheless, life prevails.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi said that Russian troops have been tasked with capturing Chasiv Yar in Donetsk oblast by May 9
According to him, Ukrainian brigades in this area are being reinforced with ammunition, drones and electronic warfare equipment.

Russians dropped a KAB-500 on a 5-story building in Ocheretyne, Donetsk Oblast (near Avdiivka). There may be people under the rubble, but a search operation is currently impossible due to the security situation
The head of the Regional Military Administration also said that 3 people were killed in the oblast today as a result of the occupiers' strikes, and 2 more were wounded.

It's total self harm on the part of the US and Europe. If Ukraine is lost we are all less safe apart from the moral implications of letting ukraine be lost. I understand the arguments against escalation but rules of engagement have been established and even these aren't being leveraged to Ukraine's interest. I don't understand it. Unless it's Russian capture of political elites, more thoroughly than we thought

I have reached the sad and grim point of thinking that the Russian agenda is pulling a lot of the strings. Certainly in the US Republicans but also in the UK, when you look at the Russian in the House of Lords, Russian financial influence, and the venality of the last Conservative governments ... and most of all the castration of the Republican party's courage.

@Igotjelly

This is true, the other big difference is of course the willingness of allies to actually put planes in the sky and help with defence. Something Ukraine can only dream of.

I get what you are driving at but politically there’s a massive massive difference between operating over a country not actively involved in a conflict (e.g Iraq, and maybe Jordan last night) and engaging targets infringing their sovereign airspace, perhaps at their request😉, verses actually embedding US/UK aircraft in the air defence system/in the sovereign airspace of a non NATO nation actively involved in a conflict.

One thing last night did show is the value of spending money over the years on developing a largely home grown defence capability….but that’s an issue many in the liberal west largely continue to duck.

Defence of the UK needs to become a major election issue and the public made cognisant of how important it is that we get behind it. Cuts might be bloody hard as a result, but negligible if Russian bombs starts hitting us

I've read in several places that Jordan requested the help of the RAF and USAF. There may have been USN aircraft involved, too.

So Iran launched 300 weapons with essentially no effect. That's a bit embarrassing.

One thing I forgot to mention. The attack by Iran may help Ukraine by putting more pressure on the House to pass the bill that will supply military aid to Israel and Ukraine. Trump has also signaled his support for Mike Johnson and indicated that he doesn't want another defenestration of the Speaker of the House, as it makes the Republican Party look bad while he's campaigning. That should get MTG to back off her threats to depose Johnson if he brings the Ukraine aid package up for a vote.

So, another good effect of Iran's attack.

Not if it was all for domestic political gain.

There would have been a lot more gain politically if some of the drones and missiles had hit a target. I suspect that a lot of Iranians feel that they’re now at risk of an Israeli retaliation that won’t miss.

A fair few are fleeing from potential targets.

The Iranian immigrants I've met in the US have all been hard-working, intelligent, and well-educated people. It's a shame they have to live under such a despotic, theocratic regime.

I think the Iranian government made a strategic mistake when they supplied weapons and training to the various insurgent groups in Iraq. That led to a lot of American deaths.

Another great interview with mark Galeotti. He is particularly helpful on the idea of a russia-nato war (which he thinks unlikely) and on the tendency to compare this period to the 1930s/putin to Hitler : podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/decoding-geopolitics-with-dominik-presl/id1739134804?i=1000651216271

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Syrskyi: Russia set a goal https://kyivindependent.com/syrskyi-russia-set-a-goal-to-capture-chasiv-yar-till-victory-day-on-may-9/ to capture Chasiv Yar till 'Victory Day' on May 9.
The statement comes after Syrskyi's warning that the situation on Ukraine's eastern front "significantly deteriorated in recent days."

US Senator Schumer says https://kyivindependent.com/johnson-says-he-will-push-to-advance-military-aid-for-israel-ukraine-package-uncertain/ congressional party leaders reach 'consensus' on aid to Israel, Ukraine.
U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said that U.S. President Joe Biden and congressional leaders during an April 14 call reached a "consensus" that Congress should act quickly to provide aid to both Israel and Ukraine.

⚡️ Zelensky: access to "critical components needed to produce missiles and drones," President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his evening address on April 14. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-assistance-for-ukraine-is-limited-while-russia-has-access-to-missiles-drones-components/

Minister: Ukraine allocates https://kyivindependent.com/minister-defense-budget-allocates-6-billion-for-arms-procurement-this-year/ $6 billion for arms procurement in 2024.

⚡️Netherlands allocates $4.7 billion to support Ukraine https://kyivindependent.com/netherlands-allocates-4-4-billion-euros-to-support-ukraine-until-2026/ until 2026.

⚡️Lithuania to allocate https://kyivindependent.com/lithuania-to-allocate-400-000-euros-to-provide-metal-detectors-in-ukrainian-schools/ 400,000 euros to provide metal detectors in Ukrainian schools.

⚡️SBU: Ukraine's modernized sea drones can carry 1 ton of explosives over https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-ukraines-modernized-sea-drones-can-carry-1-ton-of-explosives-over-1-000-kilometers-away/ 1,000 kilometers away.

Germany, the Netherlands, and Canada will supply Ukraine with drones, while Lithuania will allocate additional funds for first-person view (FPV) drone production, Ukraine's Defense Ministry reported on April 15 after a meeting of the countries' representatives. https://kyivindependent.com/netherlands-germany-canada-lithuania-to-provide-ukraine-with-military-aid-via-drone-coalition/

⚡️Media: Ukrainian soldiers already use domestically-produced attack drones similar to Russian Lancet drones at the front, Ukrainska Pravda and Militarnyi, Ukrainian news outlets, reported on April 15. https://kyivindependent.com/media-lancet-drone-analog-presented-to-zelensky-being-used-at-the-front/

General Volodymyr Shvediuk has been appointed as the new commander of the Ukrainian military’s Western Operational Command, the command reported on April 15. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-western-operational-command-introduces-new-commander/

The Counteroffensive: A look at the Russian military's war dolphins https://kyivindependent.com/the-counteroffensive-a-look-at-the-russian-militarys-war-dolphins/
Russian forces moved trained dolphins to a harbor in occupied Crimea at the start of the full-scale war.
It's common knowledge that Russia has been training dolphins for combat purposes, writes Alessandra Hay of The Counteroffensive.

⚡️Ukraine intercepts https://kyivindependent.com/border-guards-intercept-russian-sabotage-group-near-border-in-sumy-oblast/ Russian sabotage group near border in Sumy Oblast.

Russia targeted a total of 10 Ukrainian oblasts — Chernihiv, Sumy, Mykolaiv, Luhansk, Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, and Donetsk. Casualties were reported in the latter five regions.

France hopes to enlist the help of China in creating a "moment of diplomatic peace" in Ukraine and the Middle East during the Olympic Games in Paris this summer, French President Emmanuel Macron told French news channel BFMTV on April 15.
The Olympic truce was a tradition in Ancient Greece. Announced before the Games, the truce allowed the safe passage of athletes to and from the Olympics. https://kyivindependent.com/macron-hopes-for-olympic-truce/

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦

• APR 15, 2024

■ Fewer engagements, casualties below 7-day avg ■ Equipment losses below average; notable artillery losses ■ Most 🇺🇦 airstrikes since end of Jan, improved artillery ratio ■ 🇷🇺 air & artillery strikes both below average