Thread 37 Sunak : Rishi has a plan, right?

[DuncinToffee]

Or back to square one?

Previous thread

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/4991119-sunak-created-by-ai?page=40&reply=132989726

Doesn't it just 🤣

There is a poll today that shows Labour's lead going down a bit, I can't remember where I saw it

Check the ratio out on this 🤣

x.com/Conservatives/status/1757816171351462079?s=20

I somehow missed this tiktok idea

x.com/richjamesuk/status/1757768614344630542?s=20

Remember the government wanting to use TikTok stars to make content dissuading migrants from crossing the Channel?
Well, said TikTokers hate it.
‘OMG what the f*’: TikTokers rule out helping Home Office advertise Rwanda policy

So looking forward to tomorrow's results.🤗

Sunak on WhatsApp, hmmmmm

Another Conservative tweet is community noted, this one attacking Starmer

STARMER SUTRA, POSITION 4:

The one where Keir Starmer flip flopped on abolishing the monarchy.

The article referenced here is a 2021 report of a speech he gave in 2005, when he made a joke about having called for the abolition of the monarchy when he was younger.

https://x.com/mikeysmith/status/1757769443218772146?s=20

Odds for Wellingborough

Labour 1/12

Tories 10/1

Reform UK 10/1

What are the odds for Kingswood?

Labour 1/33
Tory 16/1

Where's my manners? 😬Thanks for the new thread @DuncinToffee.

I'm liking the odds. Many years ago I worked for a well known polling organisation. The owner used to say, not publicly, "follow the bookies, they're better at it than we are". Lovely photos on this thread, King of the Cats and the tulips. Thank you and thanks for new thread, the thread that keeps on giving.

The thing about opinion polls is the standard error - how confident are you in the answer, what's the margin of error and how confident are you in that?

e.g. I am 95% confident is 41% +/- 3 %

But that never gets mentioned.

Weirdly, if you did enough polls at the same time, then you would hope that they would lie within a certain percentage of each other. But that doesn't seem to happen.

I was reading about how they conduct exit polls which was fascinating. Lots of stats involved.

Exit polling explained (warwick.ac.uk)

Unfortunately I've never really been that good at understanding odds. Not for want of trying. And kind people explaining.

<wanders off feeling slightly inadequate >

At 1/12

You give me £12
If Labour wins, I will give you your stake back.
I will also give you £1

If Labour doesn't win, I keep your £12.

So basically, would you stake £12 just to win £1?

At such low returns, they basically think Labour is bound to win and aren't offering you any incentive to try and win money - because if everyone put money on Labour to win, the bookmaker would lose.

(But I bet someone's probably explained that to you)

Thank you @cakeorwine .

So my news feed has told me the UK is now officially in a recession.

Let's see how they spin this one

But Jeremy Corbyn?

It will be Labour's fault somehow.

I know. And no ministers doing the rounds this morning but I expect to see some tomorrow ...double whammy on bi elections and not a recession looming, but a full blown recession reported

The figures include December, so that makes it even worse.

There will be some desperate scrabbling around at CCHQ today.

I think that's their daily diary entry currently.

"Find away to blame everyone for this shite and not us..... send someone on the media rounds to quote it. Make they say "reasonable" "Labour led wales" "London Labour mayor" and "anyone would reasonably expect" in every sentence"

Fuckers (scuse my language)

They are indeed fuckers. Fucked fuckers!

Checking in!

Made me laugh! though rather worrying too!

https://news.sky.com/story/kiss-my-ass-marjorie-taylor-greenes-message-to-david-cameron-carried-no-regard-and-no-respect-13071776

I assume they won't be talking about pledges today then: