Ukraine Invasion: Part 47

[MagicFox]

Welcome to thread 47. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

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A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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Reports Girkin has now been found hanging in his jail cell.

Not confirmed yet so may not be true

There is nothing on Girkin's wife's channel.

Yes, I did a double-take at the figure. It is shockingly high. The cost of human suffering there for them and their loved ones does not bear thinking.

It's being reported on Twitter but nothing certain. And some of them have been deleted. Hmmmm...

Denys Davydov on Telegram

Poles who scattered Ukrainian grain on the border could get up to 5 years in prison

Prime Minister Denis Shmigal announced that they had already appeared in court.

A different take here, am mulling some of this: www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/23/war-ukraine-russia-threat-europe-rearm-us

Hungary have just removed their instruction to Sweden's NATO ascension so it's all go!

Woooohoooo!

Hungary ratifies Sweden's NATO membership
Hungary's parliament has ratified Sweden's bid to join NATO, clearing the last major obstacle to membership. (Sky)

NATO needs to get serious at 75 (foreign policy research institute): www.fpri.org/article/2024/02/nato-needs-to-get-serious-at-seventy-five/

I think this is correct, but there seem to be some cultural or political impediments that will have to be overcome. Countries like to build their own weapon systems; that's perfectly understandable. The problem is that it's very inefficient as the development costs are spread out over far fewer units.

The British Ajax IFV program is a case in point. It's been in the works since 2010 and is only now delivering the first generation of the vehicles, in very small numbers, after an expenditure a bit north of 5 billion quid.

https://www.army-technology.com/news/british-armys-ajax-still-short-of-ioc-with-25-of-vehicles-built/?cf-view

By buying the Bradley IFV, now in its fourth redesign phase, the British Army would have much more combat power for less money. We've spent decades improving the design based on real combat use in the Middle East, and it's performed brilliantly in Ukraine. The Ukrainians love the lethality, crew survivability, and reliability of the Brad. And had the BA gone with the Bradley, they could draw on the same pool of spare parts and logistics that currently exist.

BAE Systems makes the Bradley in the US. They could easily manufacture it in the UK, keeping the jobs and economic benefits at home. More funding for the forces is absolutely needed, but it must be spent wisely.

Great news!

@MissConductUS

"BAE Systems makes the Bradley in the US. They could easily manufacture it in the UK, keeping the jobs and economic benefits at home. More funding for the forces is absolutely needed, but it must be spent wisely."

Agree with your last sentence but Many some might raise eyebrows at the idea "spending money wisely" and BAE systems in the same para.

Very happy for Sweden!

BRILLIANT

A good interview with Radoslaw Sikorski who is my new favourite: www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/a-conversation-with-minister-of-foreign-affairs-of-poland-radoslaw-sikorski/

It's an hour long Atlantic council session where RS speaks for 30 mins and then answers qs. It's basically a pitch to America to get the supplement past and explain why it's so crucial.

I have to say, the stoking of tensions between the US and Europe has been superbly done. It's so very palpable on Twitter. Russia is so good at this kind of division. I hope people (esp in the US) wake up to it

There appears to be a glimmer of hope that the House may get off its duff and do something to help Ukraine.

House Backbenchers to Ukraine’s Rescue - A bipartisan group offers an alternative bill to force a floor vote.

Report from the Elysee meeting last night: on.ft.com/3UUhwIY

Fingers crossed @MissConductUS !

Jens Stoltenberg on HardTalk is good. He does admit that there is no new information that says Russia is likely on the near to medium term against any NATO member.

Yes I noted that too. I'm actually getting very cross about the scary messaging re conscription, likely attacks on NATO etc vs the contradictory walkbacks. Although he admitted "no new info" he had to be pressed to get there. As I've said before, if they do know something is coming that we're not aware of they need to be honest. If not, they need to be honest about why we need to divert money in to defence and that this will be painful in other ways. The lack of clarity is anxiety making, patronising and undermines trust in our leaders imo.

I don't think anything specific is being hidden by NATO leaders but I think the issue generally is that there's been a tendency in Europe for quite a few domestic politicians to see national defence budgets as being a soft target.

Given Russia's general behaviour IMVHO that might not be a good idea... so I think occasionally the national politicians need reminding that there is a potential general threat...as there has been for decades.

The recent talk about conscription is I think a slightly different matter. I don't think that's being pushed by NATO - that idea seems mainly to come from retired senior officers in the media trying to maintain their media profile and of course is popular with those, obviously too old to serve, who think the kids need to be kept off the streets...

Yes, but I don't think that it lands well. Frightening the public so that govts can make better spending decisions leaves a bad taste in my mouth. How do the general public distinguish between lobbying and the actuality of the threat described in soundbites and alarmism? We need leaders we can trust to make the right decisions in the public and national interest and who can communicate that honestly.

We need to increase defence spending, we need better deterrence (esp anticipating US isolationism) and we need to be less dependent on Russia and China for gas and tech (as the danish minister pointed out.) If we don't show our teeth, yes it emboldens russia. Yes we are in a world that is more at war and we need to respond to protect ourselves so that the impact is limited (hopefully) to our wallets and living standards. It's shit but it's better than the alternative. That's enough, that's the messaging. It's clear, everybody gets it. Burying it in horrific imaginings of the future is having a bad impact I think.

Yes, but I don't think that it lands well.

Well TBH I'm not sure what to suggest.. NATO officials have to continue to land the message, well or not, in European capitals that defence spending should not be cut, that readiness should be maintained or even improved...fail to do that NATO becomes about as relevant and useful as the UN....

Personally I'm hearing nothing coming out of NATO that hasn't been said in some way over the over the last umpteen decades, other than the short lived lull in the nineties...

I agree, it's the extrapolation that I'm worried about because I feel it creates distrust and panic rather than a sense of on-boardness. The threat needs to be clear, I agree. It's the extrapolation to conscription etc that's causing (as far as I can tell) panic and anger rather than a genuine understanding of the implications of the threat if that makes sense. As you can probably tell I do a lot of Twitter and Reddit trawling when researching (for better or worse) and so perhaps I'm seeing more of this (and responses to it) than is normal.