Ukraine Invasion: Part 47

[MagicFox]

Welcome to thread 47. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-24-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Ukraine continues to defend against Russian aggression and the Kremlin’s attempt to destroy Ukrainian statehood and identity despite growing difficulties two years after the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion.
• Ukraine’s European and Canadian partners commemorated the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion by committing additional aid to Ukraine and discussing Ukraine’s integration into the European Union (EU).
• Russian opposition media estimated that upwards of 75,000 Russian personnel have died in Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to highlight Russian Central Grouping of Forces Commander Colonel General Andrei Mordvichev and Russia’s seizure of Avdiivka.
• Mordvichev highlighted Russian technological and tactical adaptations in the Russian seizure of Avdiivka in a likely effort to address persistent criticisms of Russian forces in Ukraine.
• Senior Russian military officials likely are attempting to deflect responsibility for high-profile apparent Russian war crimes away from themselves and onto mid- and low-level Russian commanders.
• A recent Russian opinion poll indicates that Russian sentiments about the war in Ukraine have largely remained unchanged in recent months, but notably suggests that another mobilization wave would be widely unpopular.
• Ukrainian special services conducted a drone strike on one of Russia’s largest metallurgical plants on the night of February 23-24.
• Ukrainian reporting indicated that the A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft shot down on February 23 temporarily halted Russian aviation operations elsewhere in the theater.
• Russian information space actors continued responding to the February 23 A-50 shootdown and largely denied that Ukraine is responsible for the downing of any recent Russian aircraft.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut and Avdiivka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on February 24.
• Indian authorities have asked Russian authorities for the “early discharge” of Indian citizens fighting for Russia in Ukraine.
• The Russian government continues efforts to support infrastructure and logistics development in occupied Ukraine likely to support the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) and solidify Russian control over occupied areas.

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

🇪🇺 The EU will transfer almost 170,000 rounds of ammunition to Ukraine by the end of March and will work on increasing the volume of supplies, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said after a conversation with EU High Representative Josep Borrell.

In response to a journalist's inquiry about delays in aid packages from partners and the potential for assistance in technology development, Minister of Defense Umierov emphasized the importance of timely aid delivery. He noted that approximately 50% of aid is not delivered on time, making the work more challenging.

160 countries will be invited to the next summit of the Peace Formula in Switzerland. The objective is to have the leaders of these nations personally endorse the principles of the peace formula, as stated by Andrii Yermak. The next step of the Peace Formula Summit will involve inviting the Russian Federation in order to end the war according to the norms established by the Peace Formula. Under each of the 10 points of the peace formula, there is one or more UN resolutions.

"A weapon has emerged in Ukraine capable of hitting an enemy target at a distance of 700 km," announced Oleksandr Kamyshin, Minister of Strategic Industries of Ukraine.

At night in Poland, 160 tons of Ukrainian grain were dumped on railway tracks, — the Ministry of Infrastructure.

⚡️If steps to solve the problem with Poland are not found, we will find the ways to protect our business, — President Zelenskyy

❗️31 thousand Ukrainian soldiers died at the front. And it is very painful, — President Zelenskyy
▫️The ratio of forces with the Russian army is now 1 to 7. In order to push back the Russians, the ratio of forces should be 1 to 1.5. It is strategically important not to lose people.
▫️Without the United States it is impossible to strengthen our air defense. There are no analogues to Patriot.
▫️ It is important to put an end to Putin here in Ukraine.
▫️ If you can't give air defense systems, cancel visas to Russians.
▫️ The Europeans realized that Putin would continue this war, so they began to increase the production of ammunition.

😢 We do not know how many civilians Russia has killed. We will find out only after we finish with the Russians, — President Zelenskyy

Ukraine has a clear plan for a new counteroffensive. Zelenskyy said that there will be several options in case of information leakage, as happened in the past. The renewal of the leadership of the Armed Forces was also connected with this.

❗️It will be difficult for us in the coming months. The Russian Federation will prepare counteroffensive actions at the end of May-summer. And the turning point will be the US presidential elections, — President Zelenskyy

The European Commission will provide framework conditions for negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the EU in March. Ukrainian legislation is currently being screened for compliance with European legislation. The negotiating framework defines guidelines and principles for accession negotiations with a candidate country.

Russia will not back its athletes who express interest in accepting the terms of neutrality for participation in the 2024 Olympics in Paris.

The head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, revealed that Russia currently has only six A-50 aircraft remaining. He emphasized that if they lose one more, they will be unable to maintain continuous duty around the clock.

Budanov has disclosed that Russia is orchestrating a strategic operation named "Smuta" ("Trouble") aimed at delegitimizing the Ukrainian government. Speaking at the "Ukraine 2024" forum, Budanov outlined that the objective is to attempt a military defeat to diminish the morale and psychological resilience of the Ukrainian army. He emphasized that Russia is allocating substantial resources towards this endeavor.

Head of the Verkhovna Rada, Ruslan Stefanchuk, announced Ukraine's plans to reassess its collaboration with its closest partner countries.
Stefanchuk stated that Ukraine intends to "revitalize" the format of negotiations within the Ukraine-Poland-Lithuania and Ukraine-Moldova-Romania triangles.

Belgium has announced plans to open offices of its Development Agency in Kyiv and Kharkiv, underscoring its commitment to prioritizing the restoration of Ukraine.

In Belarus, on Sunday, without the participation of international observers, voting for the election of deputies to the parliament and local councils, which the Belarusian opposition called for a boycott, is taking place.

Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, facilitated the delivery of 50 new cars to Ukrainian prosecutors and police officers operating in frontline regions.

"The private sector is now permitted to manufacture ammunition," stated Oleksandr Kamyshin.
"In the defense industry, we are witnessing a growing number of private companies producing specific types of ammunition and their components," Minister of Strategic Industries Oleksandr Kamyshin mentioned during the "Ukraine: The Year is 2024" forum.
▫️ Presently, there are a total of 500 military-industrial enterprises in operation. Among them, 100 are state-owned while 400 are privately owned. The workforce in the defense sector comprises approximately 300,000 individuals.
▫️ In 2023, Ukraine witnessed a significant surge in ammunition production. The production of mortar ammunition skyrocketed by 48 times, while artillery shell production increased by 2.8 times.
▫️ A key objective for 2024 is to reduce the cost of weapons production. For instance, the target price for the effective utilization of an FPV drone is set at $1,000.
▫️ Ukrainian industry is gearing up to significantly ramp up the production of robotic ground drones in 2024.

Annalena Baerbock, the head of the German Foreign Ministry, visited Odesa alongside Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. This marks her sixth trip to Ukraine since the onset of full-scale Russian aggression. [She is one fierce and strong woman. Wish she was NATO Sec-Gen]

According to British intelligence, over the course of the two-year war, the Russian Federation has suffered losses equivalent to its initial strike force deployed at the beginning of the invasion.
Confirmed losses for Russia include over 2,700 tanks and 5,000 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers. Estimates suggest that the number of killed and wounded personnel in Russia could be approximately 350,000.

The head of the Ministry of Digital Transformation, Vice Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, announced that Ukrainian-produced UAVs constitute 90% of all UAVs utilized by the Armed Forces at the frontlines.

Over time, operators will be able to control UAVs from a distance, even while being far from the front, stated Fedorov.

The prime minister of Slovakia believes that the Russian war began "with the rampage of Ukrainian neo-Nazis"

Olena Kurylo, who emerged as a symbol of the early days of the invasion, continues to grapple with vision impairment.
Seeking medical treatment to preserve her eyesight, Olena Kurylo was compelled to leave Ukraine. Yet, as soon as her doctors granted clearance, she returned to her hometown of Chuhuiv. Despite undergoing four surgeries, her vision remains only partially restored, with several fragments still lodged in her body.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

"Our plans for a counteroffensive last fall were on the Kremlin's desk before the counteroffensive began", – Zelensky

❗️❗️Zelensky says Russia's losses amount to about 180,000 killed.
Together with the wounded – up to 500,000 thousand.
❗️❗️ 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers died in this war," Volodymyr Zelensky at the conference "Ukraine. Year 2024"

Leaders of Western countries, together with the President of Ukraine, honored the memory of the warriors who died during the 10 years of war against Russia

The entire crew of 10 Russians was killed in the downed Russian A-50 aircraft — media reports with reference to the Ukrainian Intelligence
Among them are five majors, three captains, an ensign, and a lieutenant.

The Russian ambassador in Poland was dumped in front of his house with what Russians like to consume from their TV channels – two tons of shit.
The activists placed a Russian tricolor with the letter "Z" on the pile of manure and stuck a sign saying "Russia = shit! We don't want you in the EU! Get out!" https://t.me/liveukraine_media/18493

Barcelona, Nicosia, Denpasar, Düsseldorf, Wroclaw, Riga, Tel Aviv, Prague, Lisbon, Munich and hundreds of other cities came out to protest against Russian aggression in this day two years ago

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev admitted that residents of the occupied regions of Ukraine are waiting for the Ukrainian army.
He stated that Russia would deport such people to Siberia
This is officially announced ethnic cleansing in Ukraine.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/02/25/russias-economy-faces-death-thousand-cuts/

Economist Roger Bootle on why it seems to be taking an age for sanctions to bite, including some historical context on the effect that mobilisation has on the economy of a nation with unemployment. Paywalled, unfortunately.

Hopefully this works

https://archive.ph/0nP8w

Here it is @DdraigGoch :

Economic pressure was one of the ways in which the West hoped Russia would be brought to heel after its invasion of Ukraine. Yet last year the Russian economy grew by 3.6pc, far faster than most countries in Europe.
What’s more, this year Russia is likely to grow by about 3pc What on earth has happened? At the risk of being accused of teaching grandmothers to suck eggs, let me go back to basics. <a class="break-all" href="https://archive.is/o/0nP8w/www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/01/30/putin-war-economy-outgrow-western-rivals-imf/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Extra expenditure unleashed by a war can give a boost to the economy.
This is what happened to Germany in the 1930s. There was also a huge increase in war production in the US, initially to meet export orders including from the UK, and subsequently to equip its own massively expanded armed forces.
This expenditure was a key factor in lifting those economies out of the Great Depression. If an economy enters a war with unemployed resources, including labour, then the extra production of war materiel is effectively free. It employs resources which would otherwise be unused.
War spending boosts growth for Russia
GDP growth projections

2024
(previous
forecast)
2025
(previous
forecast)
SOURCE: IMF
Moreover, such a boost to demand can deliver an increase in non-war production as the recipients of extra income from war production spend their money. But these gains are limited. They can only occur in economies with unemployed resources and they end when the unemployed resources are exhausted.
One way of escaping from this constraint is to draw in extra resources by importing more from abroad or exporting less, thereby causing the current account of the balance of payments to deteriorate. But that too has its limits. Once they are reached, extra production for war purposes must come at the expense of reduced production for something else – ordinary consumption or investment.
When the Ukraine war began, Russia did have a margin of unemployed productive capacity, including labour. Extra demand was therefore able to draw forth increased production. But this margin of unemployed resources was quickly used up.
After that point, with resources fully employed, extra demand brings inflationary pressure. Last year, the Russian inflation rate averaged 5.9pc. This year it is likely to be about 7.5pc. So much for Economics 101. <a class="break-all" href="https://archive.is/o/0nP8w/www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/02/20/russia-losing-economic-war-west-must-not-lose-nerve/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Now for the West’s policy stance.
It hoped to exert economic pressure on Russia through three channels. First, by stopping Russian exports to the West – especially oil and gas – it hoped to bring major financial pressure on the Russian government and make it difficult to build up and <a class="break-all" href="https://archive.is/o/0nP8w/www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/01/26/russia-arming-itself-faster-than-nato/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">resupply the Russian military.
Second, it hoped that an embargo on financial dealings with Russia would make it extremely difficult for the Russian system to transact with the outside world. Third, it hoped that cutting Russia off from the supply of key industrial inputs would gradually grind down Moscow’s supply capacity of both war materiel and goods for ordinary domestic use.
Defence is crowding out welfare
Russia's budget expenditure

6.4 trillion rubles
National
defence
National
security
SOURCE: BNE INTELLINEWS
The first of these channels has definitely not worked. Russia’s main exports, namely oil and gas and some minerals and metals, are the most fungible of all.
It is relatively easy to divert these from one set of markets to another. In Russia’s case, this has been facilitated by China and India replacing the West as a source of imports and a market for Russia’s exports, and by some other countries acting as intermediaries between Russia and third parties.
Indeed, higher prices for energy meant that in the early stages of the war, Russia’s export earnings, and hence the revenues flowing to the country’s government, soared. More recently, both prices and energy revenues flowing to the treasury have fallen back. Financial pressure has failed for similar reasons.
The Russian government has been preparing for this since the annexation of Crimea in 2014. It has reduced financial dependence on the West and has <a class="break-all" href="https://archive.is/o/0nP8w/www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/08/19/china-helping-arm-russia-helicopters-drones-metals-xi-putin/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">increased use of the Chinese system to facilitate international payments. The effectiveness of the third channel is unclear.
As with so many other countries, there are serious doubts about the validity of official statistics – particularly so in the Russian case. On the face of it, though, there doesn’t seem to have been a major impact on Russia’s productive capacity.
What is the outlook? It seems likely that the damage to Russia’s productive capacity from the loss of western technology and key supplies will increase over time. Moreover, the medium-term outlook for its supply capacity has been severely dented by the loss of so many soldiers in the Ukraine war – and more importantly, by the exodus of so many well-qualified young people who wished to escape both the Putin regime and the prospect of call-up.
The extent of troop losses is extremely uncertain. One US estimate puts the number of Russians killed and wounded at over 350,000. Emigration because of the war is unofficially estimated at over 1 million. This amounts to a combined total of about 1pc of Russia’s population.
These losses are especially important because of <a class="break-all" href="https://archive.is/o/0nP8w/www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/02/26/russia-stares-population-abyss-putin-sends-young-men-die/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Russia’s pre-existing demographic time-bomb. Its birth rate has been running at about 1.5, well below the replacement level of 2.1. Not only are the majority of casualties and emigrants young, but they are also disproportionately male, threatening a gender imbalance in Russia which will undermine overall fertility.
Meanwhile, the immediate economic outlook remains fragile. The latest Russian budget envisages a 70pc increase in defence spending this year, taking it to 6pc of GDP (The UK Government should kindly take note).
Russia’s military spending to exceed 6pc
Expenditure as share of GDP

SOURCE: WORLD BANK, STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Given this, despite surging tax revenues, the budget deficit is likely to be about 3pc of GDP this year. Admittedly, the current account is likely to record a surplus of about 4pc. But this is less impressive than it sounds because Russia needs a surplus of about 2pc to finance the continuing flight of capital.
The big vulnerability is energy prices. If they were to fall sharply then the budget deficit would balloon and the current account surplus would dwindle, putting pressure on the rouble and causing inflation to rise further. If that were to happen, then the economic screw would really tighten.

Roger Bootle is senior independent adviser to Capital Economics.

Thanks, @DdraigGoch @Crispedia and @MagicFox

Context is important. If you look at this chart, Russia’s economy is small indeed. Again context is everything so 6% of GDP is still $100bn of defence production each year.

European defence could overwhelm whatever Russia produced if it was committed, coherent and lead by a military figurehead.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-94-trillion-world-economy-in-one-chart/

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/breaking-down-1-3t-in-nato-defense-spending/

The US spends about 3.5% of its GDP on defence. US companies are disciplined when it comes to R&D spend, less so European with one or two exceptions. Probably even less so Russia.

Not wanting to bombard you with info, but I find this article published in 2020 very informative of the state of the Russian army in the decade before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
https://www.sipri.org/commentary/topical-backgrounder/2020/russias-military-spending-frequently-asked-questions

A key point is made somewhere in the middle:

Russia seems to have a much stronger military than is suggested by just looking at its military spending. However, military spending alone cannot be taken as a straightforward indicator of military capability or strength. There are two main reasons for this. First, military spending is an input measure, while military capability refers to output. This output depends on a range of factors in addition to the financial resources dedicated to military activities each year. These more qualitative factors include ‘morale, military preparedness, combat experience, doctrine and organization’.

The author concludes that qualitative factors elevate Russia's capability to above weight. This was written in 2020. Today, I am not sure I agree with the writer who may also now feel a postscript is in order. The quality of Russia's military organisation and doctrine are extremely poor as evidenced by windfall gains by Ukraine, long snarl ups of supplies, huge personnel and equipment losses and reliance on Iran and North Korea for missiles. If Ukraine were not fighting with one hand tied behind its back, areas that Russia controls would have shrunk back like a cancer in remission some months ago.

I see Sky News are reporting that Robert Fico has said that several NATO and EU nations are considering sending their troops to Ukraine and that he has spoken out as he believes it to be escalatory (how good of him...) Apparently he had learnt the information from notes he was given in preparation for a leaders meeting in Paris.

All true and on point. One concern about the expansion of military spending in Europe is that traditionally far too little has gone to equipment and ammunition. Having more soldiers isn't much good if they don't have weapons and ammunition. I've never understood what the thinking has been for this.

If I recall correctly, the 2 percent commitment also specified 20 percent going to kit and supplies.

If this is true then Fico is a massive wanker for breaking the confidence of allies and if he's lying then he's a massive wanker for that reason.

At night in Poland, 160 tons of Ukrainian grain were dumped on railway tracks, — the Ministry of Infrastructure.

⚡️If steps to solve the problem with Poland are not found, we will find the ways to protect our business, — President Zelenskyy

Doesn't this escalation just play into Putin’s hand? Presumably he’d be gleeful about this.

I'll be very surprised if this is the case - isn't this one of the red lines everybody has been careful to observe? That said there's a meeting at the Elysee tonight where nato heads will meet in person to discuss ukraine aid. Seems to me that Slovakia and Hungary are real cuckoos in the nest!

I suppose its probably true that they are and have considered it and that it continues to be on their list of options, that's not the same to having decided to do it. I agree I suspect its a red line.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-25-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Russian officials and state media largely refrained from publicly discussing the two-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, likely in an effort to avoid addressing Russia’s failure to achieve its stated war aims at significant human costs.
• Russian officials and state-run and state-affiliated TV channels likely refrained from commenting on the two-year anniversary of the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion to avoid drawing attention to Russia’s failures to achieve its stated strategic goals in Ukraine and its more immediate goals of seizing all of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, while also suffering high personnel losses.
• Ukrainian officials discussed Ukraine’s goals and priorities for 2024 on February 25 and highlighted the need for continued Ukrainian innovation and Western aid to accomplish Ukraine’s objectives.
• Drone footage posted on February 25 shows Russian forces committing apparent war crimes near Bakhmut.
• The Russian information space continues to be highly sensitive to the recent losses of A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft, suggesting that the issue of deploying and defending these aircraft is of great concern.
• Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov stated that Russia has not received any long-range missiles from Iran as of February 25.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut and Krynky amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on February 25.
• Russian authorities continue efforts to recruit Ukrainian citizens in occupied Ukraine into the Russian military.
• Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada Human Rights Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets stated on February 25 that Russia is holding over 28,000 Ukrainian citizens captive in Russian prisons.

Russia's weaponisation of energy

@MissConductUS I can only see the US being the long term winners out of whatever the next few years brings.

The US defence budget is a colossus with a reported 24% going to R&D. With the world entering a new AI revolution it is the US that should become more technically advanced, all things equal. Europe may have some collaboration leverage. In a de-globalised world, China may find it harder to grow both its economy and its military. China’s theft of intellectual property will never put it ahead and de-globalisation will make that harder.

I can see the US profiting greatly over the next 25 years. European nations will have to pay more - one thing that Trump is right about. In doing so, more US kit may well end up in European inventories.

@DrBlackbird It seems rather likely that the farmer's dispute is playing into Putin's hands - and has been created by him.

It was stated that none of the grain and foodstuffs they are protesting are actually being sold in Poland, they are simply transitting through (I simply do not know if this is true)

There was a picture of one of these 'average farmers' who turns out to have been ona list of known FSB agents.

The whole thing is more than faintly bizarre - it's got somethign else going on behind it, for sure.

@blueshoes 28,000 Ukrainians held in Russian prisons :(

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Ombudsman: 28,000 Ukrainian citizens https://kyivindependent.com/ombudsman-28-000-ukrainian-citizens-in-russian-captivity/ in Russian captivity.
The captives are spread across Russia and the occupied territories, according to Ukraine’s Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets. Many are religious figures, journalists, NGO workers, and representatives from local governments, he said.

U.S. President Joe Biden will meet with Congressional leadership, including House Speaker Mike Johnson, at the White House on Feb. 27 to discuss a funding bill for Ukraine’s security needs, Bloomberg reported on Feb. 25. https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-biden-to-meet-with-house-speaker/

⚡️ Zelensky: Russia preparing https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-russia-prepares-offensive-for-early-summer/ offensive for early summer.

⚡️Military: Russia concentrates troops near Kupiansk https://kyivindependent.com/military-russia-concentrates-troops-near-kupiansk-ukraine-builds-powerful-fortifications/ Ukraine sets up ‘powerful fortifications.’

⚡️Military: Ukraine withdraws https://kyivindependent.com/military-ukraine-withdraws-from-lastochkyne-near-avdiivka/ from Lastochkyne near Avdiivka.

⚡️Budanov: Transnistria not planning https://kyivindependent.com/budanov-transnistria-not-planning-to-join-russia/ to appeal to join Russia.
Concerns arose after the Institute for the Study of War issued a warning on Feb. 22 that Transnistria was possibly planning to organize a referendum on its annexation to Russia at an announced Transnistrian Congress of Deputies planned for Feb. 28.

Germany is conducting "discreet negotiations" to procure artillery ammunition from India, which is estimated to have "several hundred thousand rounds" stored in stockpiles, Der Spiegel reported on Feb. 25. https://kyivindependent.com/der-spiegel-germany-india-ammunition/ [Not so discreet any more]

⚡️ Kyiv asks Warsaw to act after 160 tons of Ukrainian grain destroyed https://kyivindependent.com/kyiv-asks-warsaw-to-act-after-160-tons-of-grain-dumped-at-border/ in Poland.

French President Macron is due to host a conference for Kyiv's partners on Feb. 26 to strengthen the allied commitment to Ukraine after the war entered its third year. https://kyivindependent.com/france-hosts-allied-conference-to-reaffirm-support-for-ukraine/

Viktor Pavlushchyk becomes https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-corruption-prevention-agency-selects-its-new-head-current-nabu-detective/ head of National Agency on Corruption Prevention. Pavlushchyk is a senior detective with the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU).

⚡️ Bulgarian PM, ministers arrive in Ukraine (https://kyivindependent.com/bulgarian-pm-ministers-arrive-in-ukraine-for-official-visit/ for official visit.

⚡️ Navalny killed to prevent swap https://kyivindependent.com/navalnys-associate-opposition-leader-killed-to-prevent-swap-with-convicted-russian-hitman/ with convicted Russian hitman, opposition leader's associate claims.

⚡️Military intelligence: Russia plans https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-russia-plans-to-produce-2-7-million-shells-this-year/ to produce 2.7 million shells this year.

The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has supported a network of a dozen bases in Ukraine that are "increasingly at risk" if Republicans continue to block $61 billion in funding for Kyiv, the New York Times (NYT) reported on Feb. 25. https://kyivindependent.com/nyt-cia-network-bases-at-risk/

⚡️Kuleba calls for Europe to suspend https://kyivindependent.com/kuleba-eu-ban-on-ammunition-exports/ ammunition sales to third countries.

⚡️ Ombudsman: Russian troops executed https://kyivindependent.com/ombudsman-russian-troops-executed-at-least-7-ukrainian-pows-near-bakhmut/ at least 7 Ukrainian POWs near Bakhmut.

⚡️ Denmark drops investigation https://kyivindependent.com/denmark-drops-investigation-into-nord-stream-explosions/ into Nord Stream explosions.

⚡️Russian invasion damages https://kyivindependent.com/russian-invasion-damages-1-in-7-ukrainian-schools/ 1 in 7 Ukrainian schools.

⚡️ Yermak: Ukraine working to restore operations https://kyivindependent.com/yermak-ukraine-working-to-restore-operations-at-one-airport/ at one airport.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦
⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - FEB 26, 2024
■ Casualties & equipment losses slightly up but still below 7-day average
■ 🇷🇺 strikes above average, more combat engagements reported
■ February already a record month in terms of 🇷🇺 air & artillery strikes

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

❗️Annalena Baerbock interrupted her visit to Mykolaiv due to a Russian drone. The head of the German Foreign Ministry, Annalena Baerbock, was forced to cut short her visit to Mykolaiv due to a Russian drone. As reported by the German Foreign Ministry, the diplomat and her team were being followed by a Russian reconnaissance drone. After sirens wailed in the city, it disappeared, according to the report.
Baerbock, however, managed to announce an increase in humanitarian aid to Ukraine by 100 million euros.

"As a result of the full-scale invasion of Russia, the state expenditures of Ukraine have more than doubled," stated the head of the Budget Committee, Roksolana Pidlasa.

"€8.2 million was collected in Lithuania to help the Ukrainian military. With these funds, a thousand sets of anti-drone complexes will be purchased," stated President Gitanas Nausėda
The fund-raising campaign is organized by Lithuanian journalists and public activists. According to the results of the preliminary meeting, they handed over radars, cars, and anti-drone complexes to our soldiers.

Ukrainian naval drones targeted 11 ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. It will not be possible to restore some of them, — head of the Security Service of Ukraine Vasyl Malyuk. Others may take a long time to recover.
Also, the Kerch bridge built by the occupiers, which was attacked by Ukrainian UAVs twice, is still not functioning normally. So it is not used for military logistics.

The CIA helped create a network of secret spy bases on the territory of Ukraine and a Ukrainian intelligence network in countries where Russian intelligence services are active. (NYT)
American intelligence has maintained a secret partnership with Ukrainian intelligence services for 10 years, exchanging intercepted information with Ukrainian colleagues.
With the support of the CIA and MI-6, the SBU created the paramilitary Fifth Directorate to conduct operations behind Russian lines. It was staffed by employees born after the collapse of the USSR and with no ties to Russia, the newspaper notes.
In 2014, the CIA delivered secure communications equipment to Ukraine for the first time and trained members of the Fifth Directorate and two other elite Ukrainian intelligence units.
The CIA also oversaw a training program for Ukrainian intelligence officers, which took place in two European cities. Among other things, Ukrainians were taught to work undercover. This is how a new generation of Ukrainian intelligence officers appeared who worked in Russia, throughout Europe, in Cuba, and other places of Russian presence.
With the help of the American department, Ukrainian intelligence has created 12 forward operating bases along the Russian border, the newspaper writes. From these centers, Ukrainian officers managed a network of agents who collected intelligence inside the Russian Federation. The bases were equipped with equipment for collecting intelligence information. After the start of a full-scale war, two more secret bases were built to intercept Russian communications. They are almost entirely financed and partially equipped by the CIA.

Geert Wilders, the leader of the extreme right PVV party and potential prime minister of the Netherlands, has made an unexpected statement regarding support for Ukraine. Geert Wilders, the leader of the extreme right PVV party and potential prime minister of the Netherlands, has made an unexpected statement regarding support for Ukraine. [Someone must have told this pissartist that the Dutch still remember MH17. He's a slimeball].

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Over 1,000 events in 69 countries showed support for Ukraine on February 24th, according to the Ukrainian World Congress
Events took place in 746 cities across all continents, including Antarctica.

🇩🇪 German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is against https://www.focus.de/politik/deutschland/was-der-ukraine-fehlt-ist-munition-so-erklaert-bundeskanzler-scholz-das-taurus-aus-fuer-die-ukraine_id_259705270.html** the transfer of Taurus missiles to Ukraine, citing the risks of Germany's direct involvement in the war.

According to Ukrainian intelligence, last year the Russians produced about 2 million 122 mm and 152 mm shells. Plans for this year are ambitious, as 2.7 million require modernization of facilities or the creation of new lines.
In February 2024, the Russians planned to produce 130 missiles of the Iskander, Kalibr, Kh-101, Kh-32, and Kinzhal class. The Russian Federation has created a center to replace foreign components, especially the electronic base, with Russian-made elements. They are of poorer quality and imperfect, but they allow for the production of weapons.
As for the supply of ammunition from allies, Russia has already received 1.5 million 122 mm and 152 mm shells from the DPRK, half of which do not work, and has taken all of them out of Belarus - there is nothing to take there.

Ukraine has caught up with Russia in the production of kamikaze drones, analogs of Iranian Shahed drones, Strategic Industry Minister Oleksandr Kamyshin has said.
According to him, Ukrainian models are similar to Iranian ones "in terms of the amount of explosives, range, and other technical parameters."

▪️Yesterday, the head of the DIU, Kyrylo Budanov, said that Navalny died due to a blood clot and that his death was natural. He noted that this intelligence data "was not taken from the Internet."