I hear what you are saying about bottom surgery. However, I never said that I was okay with all trans women accessing single sex spaces.
I am not equating or comparing lesbians with trans women. I was simply saying how it feels to me in a single sex space; hypothetically I could feel uncomfortable knowing a gay woman is eyeing me up, in the same way that I would if a man did so, because it is a private space (and I am very much inclined to get my kit off without worrying).
On the contrary, men identifying as women, would not have testosterone if they are undergoing hormone therapy. There is also the issue of how trans women identify sexually. If a trans woman likes women then it's a potential issue. But if she is attracted to men, it is not.
It's all very complex which is why I advocate for discussion rather than a bottom line. I'd also have to look at the statistics you're quoting and check them from multiple sources.
I understand why people feel the way they do, but I also have compassion for genuine trans people.
With regards to compelling speech, I don't feel comfortable compelling that either, but I do think it is a respectful choice. For example, if I found a woman is trans, I'm not going to start calling them "he" when I had previously thought they were female - as an extreme example to demonstrate how I think it is petty. Most trans people I have known, it is not obvious that they are trans. Finding out that they are will not affect how I treat them, because for me that is prejudiced.