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Ukraine Invasion: Part 46

996 replies

MagicFox · 25/11/2023 14:14

With thanks to all keeping these threads going πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

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336
Igotjelly · 11/12/2023 07:16

Tulipsroses · 10/12/2023 22:22

This is the biggest conflict in Europe since the Second World War. Army of around one million in Ukraine and around two million in Russia. This what nato will face after the conflict is over.

You’ve said this a couple of times. Are you trying to say that both the Ukrainian and Russian armies will fight NATO? If so I’ve got to say your logic is lost on me.

@dibly United24 is usually a solid bet.

Greenshake · 11/12/2023 07:18

Pack it in @Tulipsroses. Your last post doesn’t even make grammatical sense.

blueshoes · 11/12/2023 07:47

Did someone say donation time?

Kiev my foot.

Tulipsroses · 11/12/2023 08:44

@Igotjelly
My logic is simple. Say the conflict is over tomorrow and we keep giving Ukraine meaningless promises in relation to NATO and EU membership how long would it take them to turn to Moscow. You cannot have the largest country in Europe in limbo state, it would need to take a side.

MissConductUS · 11/12/2023 09:25

Tulipsroses · 11/12/2023 08:44

@Igotjelly
My logic is simple. Say the conflict is over tomorrow and we keep giving Ukraine meaningless promises in relation to NATO and EU membership how long would it take them to turn to Moscow. You cannot have the largest country in Europe in limbo state, it would need to take a side.

This is just silly. After all of the atrocities and suffering of the war, the Ukrainians hate the Russians with the passion of a thousand burning suns. Their only and quite well-justified fear would be that the Russians would be back in a few years to take what they hadn't already taken. Even the current members of the CSTO are pulling away from Russia.

DancesWithDucks · 11/12/2023 09:39

Tulipsroses · 11/12/2023 08:44

@Igotjelly
My logic is simple. Say the conflict is over tomorrow and we keep giving Ukraine meaningless promises in relation to NATO and EU membership how long would it take them to turn to Moscow. You cannot have the largest country in Europe in limbo state, it would need to take a side.

It will take a very, very, very long time before Ukraine turns to Russia.

DancesWithDucks · 11/12/2023 09:52

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚑️US bypasses Congress to help Israel in contrast with Ukraine aid.
The U.S. government has used emergency powers to sell $106.5 million worth of tank shells to Israel, skipping the usual congressional review to deliver the aid immediately, the Pentagon said on Dec. 9.
The emergency measure comes amid more reports that the U.S. could be running out of funds to help Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/us-skips-congressional-review-for-israel-in-contrast-to-ukraine/

⚑️Guardian: Orban allies to meet (https://kyivindependent.com/guardian-orban-allies-to-meet-republicans-over-end-of-aid-to-ukraine/) Republicans to discuss end of Ukraine aid.

Zelensky will travel to the U.S. on Dec. 11, where he will meet with U.S. President Joe Biden the following day, the two leaders' offices announced, as U.S. funding for Ukraine is rapidly running out and further aid is being held up in Congress by Republican opposition. https://kyivindependent.com/biden-zelensky-to-meet-in-washington-on-dec-11/

⚑️Zelensky holds call https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-holds-call-with-von-der-leyen-2/ with von der Leyen.

⚑️ UK announces naval coalition with Norway to support Ukraine.
The U.K. announced on Dec. 11 a new Maritime Capability Coalition with Norway to support the Ukrainian Navy and the procurement of two British minehunters by Kyiv.
The coalition's goal is to deliver "ships and vehicles to strengthen Ukraine's ability to operate at sea" and provide "training, equipment, and infrastructure to bolster security in the Black Sea." https://kyivindependent.com/uk-pledges-2-minesweepers-to-ukraine-announces-naval-support-coalition-with-norway/

⚑️General: Russia conducting fewer assault operations in southeast. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-reduced-assault-operations-in-southeast-still-trying-to-encircle-avdiivka-general-says/

The situation in Ukraine’s east remains difficult as Russian troops continue conducting offensive operations along the entire front line, Ground Forces Commander Oleksandr Syrskyi reported on Dec. 10. https://kyivindependent.com/commander-russian-troops-continue-offensive-operations-along-eastern-front-line/

⚑️UK Defense Ministry: Russia's Dec. 7 strike likely start of campaign against energy infrastructure. https://kyivindependent.com/guardian-orban-allies-to-meet-republicans-over-end-of-aid-to-ukraine/ Members of the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs and staff from the Hungarian embassy in Washington will attend a two-day event hosted by the conservative Heritage Foundation thinktank on Dec. 11, the Guardian wrote.

⚑️ UK allocates $4.6 million to support war crimes investigation in Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/uk-allocates-4-6-million-for-war-crimes-investigation-in-ukraine/

⚑️Zelensky: "I spoke with Orban as frankly as possible" in a sideline conversation between the two leaders during the inauguration ceremony for Argentina's newly elected president on Dec. 10. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-i-spoke-with-orban-as-frankly-as-possible/

Ukraine's National Agency on Corruption Prevention (NACP) opened 24-hour access to the Unified State Register of Declarations of persons authorized to perform the functions of the state or local self-government. The Register reportedly allows Ukrainians to submit and review property declarations of public servants. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-corruption-prevention-agency-opens-asset-declaration-registry/

⚑️Slovak truckers to resume blockade at border with Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/slovak-truckers-to-resume-blockade-at-border-with-ukraine/

⚑️Military intelligence: 304 Ukrainians evacuated https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-304-ukrainians-evacuated-from-gaza/ from Gaza.

Personnel losses over 1000 again.
I wonder what they do with all the dead? Leave them on the battlefield? At over 1000 most days recently, that's a lot of corpses on the landscape.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

⚑️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - DEC 11, 2023
β–  More πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί strikes & engagements, few πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ strikes, fewer settlements under artillery fire
β–  High πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί casualties, 7-day avg surpasses 1,000 again
β–  Increased equipment losses, incl. high tank losses β–  Oryx: 29 πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί 7 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ added to records

Ukraine Invasion: Part 46
DancesWithDucks · 11/12/2023 10:10

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

According to Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, the commander of the "Tavria" Operational and Tactical Group (OSU), the Russian occupiers operating in the Tavria direction have decreased the frequency of ground assaults and have resumed using aviation for strikes.

The Commander-in-Chief of the Swedish Armed Forces visited the front line.
During the meeting, General Buden spoke with artillerymen and infantrymen of the 45th separate artillery brigade, who were trained in Sweden, and highly appreciated their combat work.

The Inspector General of the Bundeswehr, Carsten Breuer, informed the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung that Germany intends to provide Ukraine with approximately 200,000 units of artillery ammunition next year," he announced.

According to the McKinsey Global Institute, approximately 70% of the world's electronics production is presently concentrated in Asian countries, with China and Taiwan emerging as key leaders in this sector.
In an 11-year study analyzing the electronics market, researchers noted that global electronics exports reached $4.1 trillion in 2021, with China's electronics production accounting for $1.4 trillion. Taiwan, renowned for hosting major semiconductor companies, holds a crucial role in this market, signifying its significant global influence.
Contrary to its previous prominence, Japan, once a central hub for electronics production in 2000, has seen a decline in its position, paralleling the situation in the United States.
Researchers attribute this shift partly to the US outsourcing technology and production to nations where costs of production and labor are lower, consequently relinquishing its domestic electronics manufacturing.
However, in recent times, the United States has been emphasizing the importance of bringing semiconductor manufacturing back home, acknowledging its critical role in national security concerns.

Javier Millay has been officially inaugurated as the President of Argentina.

Serbia and Bulgaria completed the construction of a new gas pipeline. It should reduce dependence on Russian gas.
The new line will allow Serbia to access alternative gas supplies from Greece or Azerbaijan, and will also provide Bulgaria with access to gas from Western Europe or the Adriatic Sea.

The war is gaining momentum all over the world. Currently, there are 183 armed conflicts on the planet, β€” Bloomberg
This is a record for the last 30 years. And over the last year, the number of people killed in such conflicts increased by 14%.
And this is a global trend.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 46
Ukraine Invasion: Part 46
DancesWithDucks · 11/12/2023 10:19

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

The UK-Norway Maritime Coalition will hand over the Chernihiv (M310) and Cherkasy (M311) minesweepers, 20 Viking amphibious vessels and 23 speedboats to Ukraine.

πŸ‡­πŸ‡Ί Hungarian border guards have informed their Ukrainian counterparts that the demonstration planned by Hungarian carriers will not block the border between the two countries, as is the case with Poland.
According to the State Border Guard Service, about 1,000 trucks are currently waiting in line at this checkpoint, but traffic continues to be heavy.

πŸ‡΅πŸ‡­πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³The Philippines and China exchange accusations of an attack on their ships in the South China Sea.
The Philippine Coast Guard said that a Chinese ship attacked a Philippine vessel with a water cannon near the Spratly Islands archipelago and then rammed it.
China denied this information and said that it was actually the Philippine ship that rammed their ship.
It is worth noting that the incident occurred in a region that is the subject of claims by many countries in the South East Asian region. China itself has claims to the entire South China Sea, but in 2016, an arbitration court ruled that China's claims had no legal basis.

Avdiivka direction
A Russian serviceman says that in 8 days, 14 people in their group of 70 were left alive.

Overnight, air defense forces destroyed 8 ballistic missiles and 18 Shahed attack drones. The missiles were shot down in Kyiv region, and most of the drones in Mykolaiv region

DancesWithDucks · 11/12/2023 10:30

Tulipsroses · 11/12/2023 08:44

@Igotjelly
My logic is simple. Say the conflict is over tomorrow and we keep giving Ukraine meaningless promises in relation to NATO and EU membership how long would it take them to turn to Moscow. You cannot have the largest country in Europe in limbo state, it would need to take a side.

This is why most Ukrainians will not turn towards Russia:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12592023/Mothers-reveal-let-Russian-soldiers-rape-order-protect-children-forced-watch-Horrific-ordeals-endured-Putins-troops-rape-little-girls-anyway.html

This is the Mail, but there are a number of testimonies by professional Ukrainian psychologists confirming this and much, much, much worse.

Warning: distressing

The one I saw recently refused to speak of what happens to small girls. But she did speak of one two year old boy who was repeatedly raped over a 2 week period. His mother went mad and committed suicide.

There are other records of small boys being castrated.

Russia is hated in Ukraine. When you speak to Ukrainian people now, they cannot believe what Russia has done. They used to be on good terms and like Russia. Not now. It will take a generation or two for the hate to diminish.

Mothers reveal they let Russian soldiers rape them to protect girls

EXCLUSIVE: Russian soldiers have raped Ukrainian women since the full-scale invasion began 21 months ago as part of a pattern of systematic sexual violence.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12592023/Mothers-reveal-let-Russian-soldiers-rape-order-protect-children-forced-watch-Horrific-ordeals-endured-Putins-troops-rape-little-girls-anyway.html

Tulipsroses · 11/12/2023 10:49

I think there needs to be some long term planning in relation to security in Europe and it looks like the war in Ukraine is gradually forgotten. I started a Ukraine thread couple of times with no response, people are more worried about price of coffee then geopolitical problems. And as the saying goes: "If you don't care about Russia it doesn't mean Russia doesn't care about you".

What Ukraine really needs is a security guarantee and plan for the future. No one will invest, build anything in the country which lacks in security.
If NATO could not promise the security of Ukraine then Russia will gradually absorb the country.

@MissConductUS Thank you. I'm honoured that my posts encourage animal donationSmile

DancesWithDucks · 11/12/2023 10:54

What Ukraine really needs is a security guarantee and plan for the future. No one will invest, build anything in the country which lacks in security.

Well yes. This is what's happening. Rheinmetal is building there, multi-million and perhaps billion euro projects, and there are a number of other military projects starting there.

There are also negotiations well under way between Ukraine and several EU countries over security guarentees.

backtowinter · 11/12/2023 11:38

Tulipsroses · 11/12/2023 10:49

I think there needs to be some long term planning in relation to security in Europe and it looks like the war in Ukraine is gradually forgotten. I started a Ukraine thread couple of times with no response, people are more worried about price of coffee then geopolitical problems. And as the saying goes: "If you don't care about Russia it doesn't mean Russia doesn't care about you".

What Ukraine really needs is a security guarantee and plan for the future. No one will invest, build anything in the country which lacks in security.
If NATO could not promise the security of Ukraine then Russia will gradually absorb the country.

@MissConductUS Thank you. I'm honoured that my posts encourage animal donationSmile

As the saying goes...,,,

Where does that "saying" come from?

Never heard rhetoric before.

Or is it like Catchphrase on TV where none of them actually catchphrases?

Tulipsroses · 11/12/2023 12:33

@backtowinter
Moscow operates under our noses and we only notice it when some poor sod sprays poisonous perfume or someone accidentally asks for radioactive analysis of a patient. How many heart attacks or accidental deaths were left unnoticed no one knows. So I would not underestimate their infiltration. The naive view of the West to think that once the Berlin Wall is down so we can now relax is gradually disappearing but not fast enough in my opinion .

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 11/12/2023 12:39

DancesWithDucks
Personnel losses over 1000 again.
I wonder what they do with all the dead? Leave them on the battlefield? At over 1000 most days recently, that's a lot of corpses on the landscape.

It seems entirely possible that's exactly what Russia does. I expect they know the corpses could be a disease hazard for Ukrainians who take that land back.

dibly · 11/12/2023 12:50

DancesWithDucks · 11/12/2023 10:30

This is why most Ukrainians will not turn towards Russia:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12592023/Mothers-reveal-let-Russian-soldiers-rape-order-protect-children-forced-watch-Horrific-ordeals-endured-Putins-troops-rape-little-girls-anyway.html

This is the Mail, but there are a number of testimonies by professional Ukrainian psychologists confirming this and much, much, much worse.

Warning: distressing

The one I saw recently refused to speak of what happens to small girls. But she did speak of one two year old boy who was repeatedly raped over a 2 week period. His mother went mad and committed suicide.

There are other records of small boys being castrated.

Russia is hated in Ukraine. When you speak to Ukrainian people now, they cannot believe what Russia has done. They used to be on good terms and like Russia. Not now. It will take a generation or two for the hate to diminish.

Have you got a pithy response for this @Tulipsroses? Or isn’t it covered at the farm?

Igotjelly · 11/12/2023 13:23

In terms of the numbers, are the 'losses' injured (in a way that removes them from the battlefield) and killed or just the latter?

DancesWithDucks · 11/12/2023 14:29

Hors d'combat, I think the phrase is. So dead/out of action.

DancesWithDucks · 11/12/2023 14:31

As far as I can gather, many wounded Russians are left to die but some are recovered and sent to hospitals for treatment. Of those, the capable ones are sent back, the not-very-capable are also sent back, the half-blind are sent back (literally, in at least one case) and the unable to crawl don't get sent back.

Tulipsroses · 11/12/2023 15:02

@dibly
There is a general consensus that war has horrendous consequences to people who are drawn into it. These young men on both sides will see the nightmare for the rest of their life's or the civilians who have been drawn into it. The war crimes committed by Russia will haunt it for years to come.
What I don't agree is that there is a general hatred between two nations, I can't see it anyway. 30% of population have relatives on both sides.

blueshoes · 11/12/2023 15:09

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-10-2023

Key Takeaways:

  • Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova emphasized that Russia's maximalist objectives in Ukraine have not changed, repeating the Kremlin’s demand for full Ukrainian political capitulation and Kyiv’s acceptance of Russia’s military and territorial demands rather than suggesting any willingness to negotiate seriously.
  • Zakharova's demand that Ukraine withdraw its troops from "Russian territory" as a necessary prerequisite for the resolution of the war suggests that Russia's maximalist objectives include controlling the entirety of the four oblasts it has illegally annexed parts of.
  • The Kremlin continues to express an increasingly anti-Israel position in the Israel–Hamas war despite feigning interest in being a neutral arbitrator in the conflict.
  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky traveled to Latin America on December 10 likely in order to secure Latin American support for Ukraine.
  • Russian military authorities in Armenia are likely attempting to maintain military power over Armenia amidst the continued deterioration of Armenian-Russian relations.
  • Russian forces conducted a small series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on December 9 and 10.
  • Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas.
  • Russian milbloggers continue to criticize the purported Russian military ban on the use of civilian vehicles for military purposes.
  • Russian authorities continue long-term efforts to indoctrinate Ukrainian students in occupied Ukraine by directing funding to educational institutions in occupied Ukraine.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 46
DancesWithDucks · 11/12/2023 15:24

The war crimes committed by Russia will haunt it for years to come.

The war crimes committed by Russia will haunt Ukraine a lot longer.

You may not be able to see the hate in the majority of Ukraine for Russia but have you looked? You only need to scratch the surface to an extremely shallow degree.

It's a silly comment. They have to live next door to each other - unless Russia manages to take over all of Ukraine, that is - and at some point trade will resume but the hate is intense now for the most part. Just talk to some Ukrainians face to face and look at Ukrainians' views on social media.

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 11/12/2023 16:09

Very few people forgive or "learn to love" those who have raped them, raped and slaughtered children as young as eighteen months, murdered their cousins or aunts or other civilian members of their families in cold blood, and set out to raze their homes to the ground and starve them to death.

Even if the people who have done these things are related to them by blood, it tends to make for a degree of coolness in the relationship thereafter.

Tulipsroses · 11/12/2023 16:10

DancesWithDucks · 11/12/2023 15:24

The war crimes committed by Russia will haunt it for years to come.

The war crimes committed by Russia will haunt Ukraine a lot longer.

You may not be able to see the hate in the majority of Ukraine for Russia but have you looked? You only need to scratch the surface to an extremely shallow degree.

It's a silly comment. They have to live next door to each other - unless Russia manages to take over all of Ukraine, that is - and at some point trade will resume but the hate is intense now for the most part. Just talk to some Ukrainians face to face and look at Ukrainians' views on social media.

You might be right. I can only judge by the Ukrainians in UK who are probably more pragmatic. The more I think about it the sadder I become.

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