Ukraine Invasion: Part 46

[MagicFox]

With thanks to all keeping these threads going 🇺🇦

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Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

❗️Russia has deployed more than 40,000 troops to the Avdiivka area. The occupiers are suffering heavy losses there, but despite this, they are very quickly pulling up reserves - Storm-Z and newly mobilized troops. [under the United Media report, it said they were being withdrawn; I think there was a translation error in that report]

Volodymyr Zelensky signed three European integration laws:
▪️Law No. 10203-1 provides for an increase in the staff of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau by three hundred people by 2026.
▪️Law No. 10262 allows the National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption to re-check the assets and property of officials (and their family members) that they acquired before being appointed to public office.
▪️Law No. 10288-1 allows private universities to freely choose the language of instruction, which is an official EU language. This means teaching one, several or all disciplines in the language of a national minority. Representatives of Ukraine's national minorities will also be able to receive basic and specialized secondary education in their own languages. Exceptions are the subjects of Ukrainian language, Ukrainian literature, history of Ukraine, and defense of Ukraine.

Donald Tusk, head of Poland's Civic Coalition platform, said he would seek to resolve the border blockade when the new government comes to power.
According to the politician, he will act in the interests of Polish carriers, but at the same time demand an end to the blocking of trucks. Tusk criticized the failures of the current Morawiecki government.
Journalists also asked him about the possibility of influencing Viktor Orban, and he replied that the Hungarian prime minister had already "openly switched to Russian positions."
▪️Donald Tusk is expected to be elected prime minister on December 12.

🤡Kadyrov's 16-year-old son is the new head of his father's security service

I cant put the clip up, but there's a short video of a Russian soldier actually lying on the ground and scooping snow up to eat. It's actually a little distressing to see how even they are reduced to this.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-8-2023

Key Takeaways:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin announced his presidential bid for 2024 on December 8 in an obviously staged effort to seem that he was running at the request of Russian servicemen.
• Putin’s announcement of his presidential bid in a military setting indicates that his campaign may focus on Russia’s war in Ukraine more than ISW previously assessed, although the extent of this focus is unclear at this time.
• Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of December 7 to 8.
• Imprisoned ardent nationalist and former Russian officer Igor Girkin forecasted on December 7 that there will be “no agreement” between Russia and Ukraine to end the war and ”no freeze” of the frontlines in Ukraine, marking a notable shift from Girkin’s prior claims that the Russian military intended to “freeze the frontline” until after the Russian presidential elections.
• The Russian military has reportedly banned the use of civilian cars for military purposes likely as part of ongoing formalization efforts, sparking criticisms from Russian milbloggers.
• The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) is expanding its ability to guard Russian officials and entities abroad likely to better surveil Russian and international actors outside of Russian territory.
• Russian occupation officials continue efforts to artificially alter the demographic composition of occupied Ukraine.
• Ukraine’s partners continued to announce military and financial aid packages to Ukraine recently.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Udmurt Republic Head Alexander Brechalov announced on December 7 that the region formed and will soon deploy four new units to fight in Ukraine.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on December 8 that Russia is trying to destroy Ukrainian children’s connection to Ukraine and that swift intervention is necessary to maintain this connection during a speech at the first meeting of the International Coalition for the Return of Ukrainian Children.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️First Lady: Ukraine in 'mortal danger' without financial aid. https://kyivindependent.com/first-lady-ukraine-in-mortal-danger-without-financial-aid/

⚡️European Parliament members urge Duda, EU leaders to take action on Polish border blockade. https://kyivindependent.com/european-parliament-members-urge-duda-eu-leaders-to-take-action-on-polish-border-blockade/

Germany should be prepared to increase its support for Ukraine "when others are faltering," German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Dec. 9, apparently referring to the uncertainty over further aid to Ukraine in the U.S. https://kyivindependent.com/scholz-on-ukraine-aid-germany-should-be-prepared-to-do-more-when-others-are-faltering/

⚡️Hungarian truckers to join Polish, Slovak protests on border with Ukraine.
Hungarian freight carriers starting on Dec. 11 will begin an official demonstration and block the Záhony-Chop checkpoint on the border with Ukraine, local media reported citing the Association of Hungarian Road Carriers. https://kyivindependent.com/hungarian-truckers-to-join-polish-slovak-protests-on-border-with-ukraine/

⚡️Covid on the rise https://kyivindependent.com/covid-on-the-rise-in-ukraine-deputy-health-minister-warns/ in Ukraine, deputy health minister warns.

The national security advisors of Japan, the U.S., and South Korea met in Seoul on Dec. 9 and pledged to mutually combat North Korea's cyber threats, as well as weapons and spy satellite testing, which have been bolstered by the country's increasing cooperation with Russia. kyivindependent.com/us-south-korea-japan-pledge-to-increase-cooperation-pressure-on-north-korea/

⚡️Foreign Ministry condemns IOC decision to let Russian athletes compete at Paris Olympics. https://kyivindependent.com/foreign-ministry-condemns-ioc-decision-to-let-russian-athletes-compete-at-paris-olympics/

Russian officials at the COP28 summit on Dec. 9 in Dubai said Moscow is studying whether some of its gold reserves, frozen by the West after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, could be used to help the Global South combat climate change. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-studying-allocation-of-frozen-gold-reserves-to-global-south-for-climate-change/

In an awkward phone call s our journalist questions a high-ranking Russian official who allegedly supervised Olenivka prison.
It gained global attention after an explosion on July 28, 2022, which killed 57 Ukrainian prisoners, including Mariupol defenders.

War in Ukraine puts sex workers https://kyivindependent.com/war-puts-sex-workers-at-higher-risk-of-violence-disease/ at higher risk of violence, disease
As millions have been forced to flee their homes as a result of the hostilities, some women, displaced and unable to find other forms of employment, have turned to sex work.
Since the full-scale invasion started, one sex worker reports more clients than usual are on drugs, don’t have the means to pay, and soldiers often arrive in unstable mental states. [Sex workers have difficult enough lives, they don't need this]

Ragnar Gudmundsson
WAR IN #UKRAINE - DEC 10, 2023
■ Relatively few combat engagements & strikes on both sides reported
■ Settlements under artillery fire slightly above 7-day average however
■ Troop losses well below average which concurrently dips below 1,000
■ Second day of modest landbased equipment losses

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The announcement made by Russia to conduct presidential elections in the occupied territories of Ukraine, including Crimea and parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, has drawn condemnation from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine.

⚡️ President Zelenskyy is on his way to Argentina for the inauguration of the newly elected president Javier Miley.
On the way to Argentina, he met (pictured) with the Prime Minister of the Republic of Cape Verde. This meeting was the first in the history of bilateral relations between our countries.

Ukrainian experts have determined that the manufacturer of the Shahed drones used in attacks on Ukraine is the Iranian aircraft manufacturing company HESA (Iran Aircraft Manufacturing Industrial Company).
The Office of the Prosecutor General, responding to Suspilne's request, reported that expert examinations have confirmed the identification of "Geran-2" UAVs as kamikaze drones of the "Shahed-136" type, and another seized sample named "Geran-1" as a kamikaze attack UAV "Shahed-131." These examinations pointed to the Iran Aircraft Manufacturing Company (HESA) in the Islamic Republic of Iran as the developer and manufacturer of these UAVs.

The Czech magazine Reflex presented its proposed Olympic uniform design for Russian and Belarusian athletes.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Self-proclaimed President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko has begun his visit to African countries.
Lukashenko's plane reportedly landed in Equatorial Guinea.
According to the press service, the work "will be aimed at intensifying cooperation in all mutually beneficial areas," and Lukashenko also wants to establish strong ties between Belarus and African countries.

❗️Russians shelled Kupyansk with artillery, killing two women aged 57 and 71, and wounding a 30-year-old man.

🇻🇪🇬🇾 The leaders of Venezuela and Guyana will meet on December 14 to discuss the former's territorial claims to the Essequibo region.
The Regional Union of Latin American Countries will act as a mediator. The President of Brazil was also invited to the talks. The day before, he demanded that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro refrain from invading Guyana.

Do you think that any sort of negotiations are feasible at this current time? It looks like the interest is this conflict is gradually fading in the West.

@Tulipsroses

Whether negotiations happen is entirely a decision for Zelensky and Ukraine. Personally I still think the resolution should be Russia returning to their own pre 2014 borders and making a shit ton of reparations.

There should be no reward for Russia.

I also disagree that interest is fading. The connection was made with Gaza, and everytime they cover that on the news, it makes you think about other conflicts of which Ukraine is immediately coming to mind.

Ukraine is a country fighting for its very existence and this is not something easily pushed aside or forgotten.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-9-2023

Key Takeaways:

• Russian forces have likely committed to offensive operations in multiple sectors of the front during a period of the most challenging weather of the fall-winter season in an effort to seize and retain the initiative prior to the Russian presidential elections in March 2024.
• Ukrainian forces, by contrast, appear to be using this period of challenging weather and ongoing Russian offensive operations to establish and consolidate defensive positions along the parts of the frontline where they have not been conducting counteroffensive operations, thereby conserving manpower and resources for future offensive efforts.
• The establishment of local defensive positions in areas Kyiv is not prioritizing for current or imminent counteroffensive operations is a prudent step and not an indication that Ukraine has abandoned all plans for future counteroffensives.
• The Kremlin-backed United Russia party is spearheading Russian President Vladimir Putin’s nomination as an independent candidate in the 2024 Russian presidential election, and Putin’s re-election campaign initiatives group includes people with a variety of backgrounds and constituencies to create the image of widespread support for Putin’s presidency.
• Multiple Russian political opposition figures have reportedly developed a common campaign strategy for the upcoming presidential campaign cycle aimed at compelling Putin to address topics he seeks to avoid and revealing the breadth of Russian opposition against Putin.
• Select Russian milbloggers accused the Armenian government of promoting Russophobic policies that inspire violence against Russian media figures in Armenia on December 9.
• The European Union (EU) will allow member states to restrict Russian gas imports in an effort to restrain Russian petroleum revenues.
• A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that Russian decoy missiles failed to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses during December 8 missile strikes against Kyiv City.
• Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov highlighted Ukrainian anti-corruption efforts and preparations for the arrival of F-16 fighter jets in the near future on December 9.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced near Kreminna.
• Relatives of mobilized Russian military personnel continued to appeal to the Russian government for the return of their relatives from the war in Ukraine.
• The Russian Ministry of Culture continues to orchestrate efforts to Russify Ukrainian children and facilitate their deportation to Russia.

I love the Olympics but if Russian and Belarusian athletes are allowed to compete as neutrals I will not be watching, my own small boycott

Not at this time. It might come in the future. Ive no doubt that behind the scenes some are pushing for it hard, especially as US aid is in doubt and personally I do think the Ukraine invasion is much less high profile than it was. The failure of the summer counteroffensive will also have turned some people off.

But Ukraine is absolutely determined and some high level politicians still support it strongly. So at this time, I guess no.

@DancesWithDucks
I think that both Washington and Moscow interests are paradoxically the same, enough of the conflict how do we make Ukrainians sign to something. Obviously Biden can't publicly say this but also can't provide enough weapons to turn the tide in the war. In my opinion the best option now would be to promise immediate accession of Ukraine to NATO if Ukraine signs.
As it looks now Russia is fully standing on the war rails, backed by China with vast amount of money coming from Europe thought network of intermediate companies. The biggest problem if Putin accomplishes the original objective and gets puppet government in Kiev. You have huge battle ready Russian plus Ukranian armies on the door step of NATO.

@Tulipsroses it looks as though Russia is become a vassal state of China. What they will owe to them after this hasn't been calculated.
There is no chance of a puppet government of Russia in Ukraine. That point passed on day 3 of the invasion when Putins piss poor army lost a game of stuck in the mud.

Russia and Putin seem happy to send wave after wave of men into a meat grinder, achieving little but losing a lot more than they gain. This can't last forever, sooner or later they will run out of men to be killed.

‘Kyiv’ - fixed that for you. We don’t utter Kiev round these parts 🇺🇦

As @DancesWithDucks days Putin absolutely cannot be allowed to gain anything from this endeavour.

I also struggle to see where this ‘battle ready’ Russian army will come from given they’ve lost so many of their best men.

I’m starting to think it might be donation time….

I thought exactly the same this morning. This evening has certainly confirmed the thought.

Seemed that way to me, but I am growing old and cynical.

@L1ttledrummergirl
I agree with you that Russian resources will run out but they are betting that Ukranian resources will run out first. For this not to happen Europe and US need to increase the military support which looks less likely now.
I think problem with Ukraine were huge expectations and wishful thinking. Zelensky has promised something which they couldn't deliver and now has to explain why.

Igotjelly
I also struggle to see where this ‘battle ready’ Russian army will come from given they’ve lost so many of their best men.

Every man they lose in a fight is by definition a man with more fighting experience than a new recruit has.

That's a bet Russia is losing, and will continue to lose.

And Putin of course did make a promise he couldn't deliver; back in early 2022 he led the Russians to expect that they would take Kyiv (or as he called it, Kiev) within the week.

Hasn't happened yet.

This is the biggest conflict in Europe since the Second World War. Army of around one million in Ukraine and around two million in Russia. This what nato will face after the conflict is over.

In which case it is very much in NATO's interests to provide all the support Ukraine needs in order to reduce the ultimate threat to NATO, isn't it.

And I expect that if I can see that, NATO can too.

In the same way, the idiotic Putin-backing Republicans may have failed to notice (or refuse to acknowledge because it doesn't suit their narrative) that giving Ukraine aid in the form of stockpiled weaponry which is then replaced by Americans employed and paid in America is to the benefit of the American economy, but anyone with the sense God promised to a doorknob at the Beginning will have worked that one out.

@AskingQuestionsAllTheTime
I would disagree with you here in relation to republicans. Trump was banging for ages about the increase in military spending of NATO. In fact I think that if Trump was in power this war would not start. Putins balls are smaller than Trumps. If you remember when Erdogan shot down Russian plane, WW3 should have stated but instead Putin banned Turkish tomatoes.

I would disagree with you here in relation to republicans. Trump was banging for ages about the increase in military spending of NATO.

True. But for Trump, he was viewing it as transactional. He was raising the valid point (stopped clock is correct twice a day, I suppose) that most NATO members were not even attempting to reach the 2% of GDP target for defense spending. So he saw this as an uneven exchange and the US being taken advantage of. And to be fair, some European countries, looking at you, Germany, were massively taking the piss on this issue.

As to the argument that money spent on replacing stockpiles sent to Ukraine goes back into the US economy, that's correct, and it's the argument that reportedly brought the Speaker of the House around to supporting Ukraine. But it's also billions that can't be spent building submarines or paying military salaries.

His objective was always to have a puppet government. I do agree that after this bloody war he lost Ukraine for ever but there will be someone maybe not Zelensky, who will ultimately sign a piece treaty.

If only the summer offensive could cut the land bridge to Crimea then the whole point of this war would be lost. But unfortunately he can claim that he has the land bridge to justify horrendous losses.

What’s the best site for donations?