Ukraine Invasion: Part 46

[MagicFox]

With thanks to all keeping these threads going 🇺🇦

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Haven't posted in months but constantly watching. Haven't checked the thread in a couple of days and my heart dropped when I read headlines. This is really nice to read and I've calmed down a bit lol. (re-blocks irresponsible media news outlets)!

He points out that countries have a responsibility to make sure that their civilian populations and industrial bases are also aware that peace cannot be taken for granted and to are prepared/understand the impact of a possible future conflict.

It's that last bit that needs to be unpicked for people. Reading other threads, it's created a sense of inevitability about a third world war and direct involvement of the civilian population. I can't say I fully understand either. You're right though @Igotjelly about the way his words were spun.

One other thing that's left out of discussions of Bauer's comments is that he was responding to a question from a Swedish journalist and referencing comments made by a Swedish minister. Obviously Sweden isn't in nato yet and in a vulnerable position (proximity, pending nato) so the rhetoric there was inevitably strong

I think in terms of the civilian population it’s about getting them bought into the idea of additional expenditure on the military and about the need for us to recognise that there might be shortages/price increases etc. Basically trying to get the average person to understand that peace can’t be taken for granted and that active deterrence is needed, which costs money.

I notice that the media were less quick to pick up on Jens Stoltenberg’s comments about there being no imminent threat to a NATO country from Russia.

I also notice that the usual suspects (looking at you Daily Mail) didn’t really report on the fact the Doomsday clock didn’t move. Can you imagine their glee in reporting if it had. They have no interest in sensible reporting.

I'm so glad you mentioned the clock!! I thought the same! There was quite a big build up to it too.

I think you make a great point about the need for the public to get behind increased spending. Yes it will make things harder but the bigger picture needs to be understood. And maybe that's what this is driving towards. It's a shame it can't be made that explicit though as the mark is often missed and people descend into panic without thinking at all about what it means in the mid term and the kind of sacrifices required. What those sacrifices are needs to be made clearer so that fear isn't clouding the rational discussion about what, in the grand scheme, are hard but doable sacrifices.

That didn't sound very clear but hope it makes some sense!

I think it's always important to remember that for many people the Ukraine conflict has really faded from their consciousness, it's not something they think about most of the time. The UK Government and our European partners are clearly still keen to support Ukraine which is great but again that costs money and for the average person they don't necessarily understand all the nuances about supporting Ukraine, and aren't particularly bought into the idea of it being the right thing to do. The concept of deterring an attack on NATO (and as such the UK) by Russia however is something they can understand.

I think you're right. I can't imagine it fading, and people not being aware. It is on my mind every day and if everything I do. I just don't get not grasping this or pretending it's nothing to do with us

Ukraine has slipped from the news as Gaza has taken focus. Other conflicts Yeman, Sudan, and huge numbers of deaths in places luke Dafur didn't take peoples attention as Gaza is doing.

Yet Ukraine is in Europe and on the doorstep. The Russian government are taking advantage of the lack of focus.

Russian transport plane down

https://x.com/ukraine_map/status/1750081679069245544?s=20

The Russian government is saying that it was carrying c65 Ukrainian POWs - if true.

I hope that it's just propaganda that Ukrainians were on board.

If it's true then that is tragic.

Whilst I'm obviously taking any Russian claim with a bucket load of salt, if the plane shot down was indeed carrying 65 Ukrainian POW who were going to be swapped in a prisoner exchange that's a massive tragedy but equally a huge propaganda win for the Russians.

There are also claims that as a result of this a second plane carrying a further 80 POWs has been turned around and as such they won't be exchanged.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-23-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Western states reiterated their support for Ukraine and their commitment to the development of Ukraine’s defense industrial base (DIB) at the 18th Ukraine Defense Contact Group at Ramstein Air Base in Germany on January 23.
• NATO concluded contracts on January 23 for the purchase over 200,000 artillery shells, likely either to allow NATO to send additional aid to Ukraine or to replenish NATO stockpiles.
• Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces are struggling to compensate for Ukrainian drone and rear-area strikes at the level necessary to break out of positional warfare.
• Russian forces conducted a series of missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of January 22-23 with a new strike package likely meant to penetrate Ukrainian air defenses.
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian and Palestinian National Authority Foreign Minister Riyad al Maliki as part of efforts to deepen Russian relations with Middle Eastern actors.
• The Kremlin’s domestic policy focus on the “Year of the Family” in 2024 is likely in part meant to address Russia’s ongoing demographic crisis.
• The Russian Baltic Fleet is conducting a coastal missile exercise likely to posture against ongoing NATO Steadfast Defender 2024 exercises.
• The Kremlin may intend to use the 2024 Russian presidential election as a referendum on Russia’s war in Ukraine.
• The Russian legal system is expanding the prosecution of extortion cases to broadly suppress sources of dissent.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on January 23.
• Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) government chairperson Yevgeny Solntsev announced on January 23 that a branch of the Russian Nakhimov Naval School in occupied Mariupol will start instructing its first cadets on September 1, 2024.
• Russian occupation authorities are likely deliberately misrepresenting population statistics in occupied areas to encourage people to relocated to occupied settlements.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Turkish parliament approves https://kyivindependent.com/turkish-parliament-approves-swedens-nato-membership-bid/ Sweden's NATO membership bid.
After months of discussions, Turkey's parliament voted to ratify Sweden's application to join NATO on Jan. 23, leaving Hungary the only country that has yet to approve Sweden's accession to the alliance, Bloomberg reported.

⚡️Trump wins https://kyivindependent.com/trump-wins-republican-primary-in-new-hampshire/ Republican primary in New Hampshire.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and the alliance's procurement chief, Stacy Cummings, concluded on Jan. 23 contracts for the purchase of around 220,000 155mm artillery shells worth around $1.2 billion. https://kyivindependent.com/nato-signs-contracts-for-1-2-billion-worth-of-artillery-shells/

Germany will transfer decommissioned Sea King MK41 multi-purpose military helicopters to Ukraine, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced on Jan. 23. This would be Germany's first provision of military helicopters to Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/germany-to-transfer-military-helicopters-to-ukraine-for-the-first-time/

Canada will provide Ukraine with a new military aid package worth up to $20 million, Canadian Defense Minister Bill Blair announced on Jan. 23 during the 18th meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group.
https://kyivindependent.com/canada-announces-new-military-aid-package/

Without Congress's approval for additional aid to Ukraine, the lack of funding prevents the U.S. from meeting Ukraine's most urgent battlefield, including maintenance of already provided equipment, Pentagon spokesperson Patrick Ryder said during a press briefing on Jan. 23 https://kyivindependent.com/pentagon-lack-of-funding-prevents-from-meeting-ukraines-most-urgent-battlefield-needs/

⚡️ Russian anti-war politician Nadezhdin collects https://kyivindependent.com/russian-anti-war-politician-boris-nadezhdin-collects-enough-signatures-to-register-as-presidential-candidate/ enough signatures to register for presidential run, says he still needs more.
Despite reaching more than the minimum requirement, Nadezhdin's campaign said they would continue collecting more signatures, setting a new target of 150,000. The campaign wanted to have an extra margin of signatures in case some were challenged by authorities.

⚡️Defense Ministry after Ramstein summit: Ukraine to receive more long-range weapons https://kyivindependent.com/defense-ministry-after-ramstein-summit-ukraine-to-receive-more-long-range-weapons/

⚡️ Media: Russian Il-76 transport plane crashes https://kyivindependent.com/russian-media-russian-il-76-transport-plane-crashes-in-belgorod-oblast/ in Belgorod Oblast

⚡️ Military intelligence: https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-cyber-attack-on-russian-space-hydrometeorology-research-center-deals-devastating-consequences/ o
"Volunteer patriot" hackers of the BO Team launched a cyberattack against the Russian Far Eastern Research Center of Space Hydrometeorology "Planeta," destroying its database and expensive equipment, Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) said on Jan. 24.
Ukraine's military intelligence agency confirmed the media reports on the attack, saying that the hackers allegedly destroyed 280 servers and two petabytes of data.

⚡️NYT: Russia using https://kyivindependent.com/nyt-russia-nk-missiles/ relatively accurate, recently designed North Korean missiles against Ukraine

Ukrainian journalist Mstyslav Chernov's documentary "20 Days in Mariupol" has been nominated for the 2024 Oscars in the Best Documentary Feature Film category, the U.S. Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced on Jan. 23. https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-film-20-days-in-mariupol-receives-oscar-nomination-in-best-documentary-feature-film-category/

⚡️ Bank of Cyprus leaves Russia. kyivindependent.com/bank-of-cyprus-leaves-russia/
The Bank of Cyprus, the biggest Cypriot bank, closed its representative offices in Moscow and St. Petersburg on Jan. 22, the data posted by the Central Bank of Russia revealed.

⚡️ Ukraine, Poland discuss creating 4 additional border crossings. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-poland-discuss-creating-4-additional-border-crossings/

⚡️Russian attack on Kharkiv leaves https://kyivindependent.com/11-000-people-in-kharkiv-without-power/ 11,000 people without power.

⚡️ Politico: EU may sanction https://kyivindependent.com/politico-eu-may-sanction/ Russian aluminum as part of next package. Previous packages left around 85% of Russian exports of the metal to the EU untouched, according to the trade organization European Aluminium.

⚡️Authorities dismantle https://kyivindependent.com/authorities-dismantle-suspected-dutch-smuggling-network-accused-of-violating-sanctions-3-people-arrested/ suspected Dutch smuggling network accused of violating sanctions, 3 people arrested.

⚡️Ukrainian government to create business support council https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-government-to-create-business-support-council-amid-claims-of-law-enforcement-pressure/ amid claims of law enforcement pressure

⚡️ Bloomberg: Russian marine oil exports hit 2 month low https://kyivindependent.com/russian-marine-oil-exports-hit-2-month-low-after-storms-suspected-ukrainian-attack-on-refinery/ after storms, suspected Ukrainian attack on refinery.

European officials believe it is unlikely that the EU will seize Russian central bank assets, partly due to the legal risks, Reuters reported on Jan. 23. https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-eu-unlikely-to-confiscate-russian-central-bank-assets/

⚡️ Euractiv: Bulgaria urges https://kyivindependent.com/euractiv-bulgaria-urges-tariffs-and-quotas-on-ukrainian-grain-imports-to-eu/ tariffs and quotas on Ukrainian grain imports to EU.
The Bulgarian Agriculture Ministry insists that duties must be paid for Ukrainian products if quota volumes of duty-free imports are exceeded, Euractiv wrote.

Ukraine has allocated Hr 34.05 million ($908,000) from the reserve fund of the Justice Ministry to repair a prisoner of war (POW) camp for Russian soldiers, the government reported on Jan. 23. https://kyivindependent.com/funding-for-pow-camp-repair/

Opinion: Why the Russia sanctions are failing https://kyivindependent.com/opinion-why-the-russia-sanctions-are-failing/ The longer the global financial system is used as a tool of economic warfare, the more governments and businesses in third-party countries will look for alternatives to the dollar, euro, and the SWIFT international payment system.

⚡️ Media: Russia issues https://kyivindependent.com/media-russia-issued-566-000-in-fines-in-2023-to-tv-providers-for-showing-lgbt-content/ $566,000 in fines in 2023 to TV providers for showing LGBT content. [God, anyone who's gay in Russia must be nearly in hell]

A Ukrainian reconnaissance unit, led by fallen Colonel Oleh Babii, was responsible for the destruction or disabling of three Russian Tu-22M3 bombers in August 2023, Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) revealed on Jan. 23. https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-names-unit-behind-august-sabotage-of-russian-bombers/

⚡️ Ukraine's Yastremska reaches https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-yastremska-reaches-grand-slam-semifinals-repeating-national-record/ Grand Slam semifinals, repeating national record.

⚡️Update: https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-kill-14-injure-97-over-past-day/

⚡️Official: Body of 8-year-old girl found on site https://kyivindependent.com/official-body-of-8-year-old-girl-found-on-site-of-russias-morning-strike-against-kharkiv/ of Russia’s morning strike against Kharkiv.

61 artillery!

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson
⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - JAN 24, 2024
■ Casualties slightly above average, massive equipment losses incl. record artillery losses
■ Strikes far above, many settlements under fire, fewer engagements
■ Oryx: 85 🇷🇺 14 🇺🇦 added (66:12 after corrections), 30-day 2.5x

RECORD ARTILLERY LOSSES
Development of Russian artillery losses in the last 250 days
Earlier record of 58 was set on November 15, 2023

UNITED 24 Media Telegram Highlights

Ukraine has three key objectives for 2024, — Denys Shmyhal.
According to the prime minister, the first objective is to get the European Council to approve the multi-year funding program, the Ukraine Facility.
The head of the Ukrainian government named the start of the negotiation process and Ukraine's accession to the EU as the second objective.
And the third is “clear and bold decisions at the NATO Washington Summit on Ukraine's path to membership in the Alliance," he added.

Slovakia will support the Ukraine Facility program, which provides for the allocation of €50 billion to Ukraine by the European Union - Shmyhal on the meeting results with Fico.
Prime Minister of Ukraine emphasizes that he and Robert Fico have reached consensus on several issues and have certain agreements:
▫️The Slovak government will not block Ukraine's purchase of weapons and equipment from Slovak businesses;
▫️We will cooperate on the supply of equipment from a Slovak company for the construction of defense borders;
▫️Full support for Ukraine's European integration ambitions.

"We must provide Ukraine with more lifesaving ground-based air-defense systems and not waver in our support," U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said at the opening of the meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group

Germany will transfer 6 Westland Sea King helicopters to Ukraine, — German Defense Minister

A wicked ‘industrial-scale’ pipeline of child deportation from parts of Ukraine now occupied by Russia has reached new heights. And it involved both Russia and Belarus working together every step of the way.
Thousands of children were illegally abducted and transferred to Belarus through the Russian Federation. The big question is where these kids are now. The Lukashenko regime claims they've returned to Ukraine. However, it wasn’t possible to verify that. Many of the underage could have already ended up untraceable in Russia or even adopted by Russian families.

The reports about BMW banning Russians from connecting smartphones to their cars seem to be associated with issues related to the compatibility of Bluetooth versions. BMW owners in Russia have reportedly experienced difficulties in launching CarPlay, a system that facilitates navigation and music control when an iPhone is connected.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

The information that the prisoners of war could have been in the IL-76 plane that crashed in the Belgorod region is currently being checked.
The exchange of prisoners between Russia and Ukraine was to take place today. This was reported by the representative of the DIU, Andriy Yusov, in a commentary to Radio Liberty.
"But I can state that the exchange planned for today is not taking place," he said.

After successful strikes of Ukrainian drones on military targets in Leningrad region, Russian authorities began installing S-300 air defense systems around St. Petersburg

The CIA has released https://twitter.com/CIA/status/1749496881309184248?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1749496881309184248%7Ctwgr%5E19ae49496028d595031a0795814a86ddee431ec5%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.eurointegration.com.ua%2Fnews%2F2024%2F01%2F23%2F7178039%2F** a Russian-language video in which it tries to convince Russian intelligence officers to defect to the United States and work as double agents.
The video tries to appeal to patriotic Russians who work in intelligence and may feel betrayed by corruption in the elite and poorly supplied Russian armed forces.

🇨🇦🇺🇦 Canada will provide https://www.canada.ca/fr/ministere-defense-nationale/nouvelles/2024/01/le-ministre-blair-annonce-de-nouveaux-dons-militaires-pour-lukraine-lors-de-la-18e-reunion-du-groupe-de-contact-sur-la-defense-de-lukraine.html** Ukraine with 10 multifunctional inflatable vessels worth $15 million. The multi-engine, rigid-hulled inflatable boats are needed for maritime operations.
The vessels, manufactured by Zodiac Hurricane Technology, as well as spare parts for them, are to arrive in Ukraine by the end of spring this year

⚡️The Cabinet of Ministers has approved Ivan Fedorov as the head of the Zaporizhzhia regional state administration.
Previously, he was the mayor of the temporarily occupied Melitopol.

Mass-murdering Ukrainian POWs and blaming Ukraine for it would, unfortunately, be very in character for Russia – as we know from what the Russians did in Olenivka to POWs from Azovstal.

That's their style and what I believe happened

Based on nothing other than a very low opinion of the russians

Panic mode again (pesky night times).

Is this concerning? I don't think even at the start of the Ukraine invasion comments by people in power were so ominous?

Surely Russia is less of a threat now than pre 2022? If they're struggling in Ukraine how can they start another war involving NATO? Am I missing something?

What would a UK/ NATO involved war even look like? Would it likely be on UK soil?

Sorry - my anxiety around all of this is coming back again after keeping it at bay for so long.

news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-rishi-sunak-general-election-keir-starmer-12593360

I am no expert, but I can’t see that anything has actually changed. The odds on a fight on UK soil are absolutely minimal. If anything, I welcome the recent comments and press coverage as it has pushed Ukraine to the top of the agenda again.

I’m inclined to agree. I suspect that an increase in military spending is on the horizon (and so it bloody well should be) and they’re preparing the population to pay more.

Downing Street have outright said that conscription will not come back and Jens Stoltenberg said there is no currently imminent threat to NATO from Russia so nothing new there.

Of course the wild card is Trump…