Ukraine Invasion: Part 46

[MagicFox]

With thanks to all keeping these threads going 🇺🇦

**
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Yes you're right, there's a huge uptick in pro-Trump comments from a few too

Donation time again

Just popping in to say that when this thread started I never dreamt it would get to 46! I've put the poor Ukrainians' plight to the back of mind which is truly shocking 😟 Derail over.....

I fear it's going to be going on for a long time :-(

I think I saw the thread yesterday that you mentioned @MagicFox , I noticed you valiantly responding.

@minsmum thanks, I gave up pretty quickly though!

@MagicFox I don't blame you it was infuriating reading it, you are a better person than me the only response I could come up with was you are idiot's but less politely worded

😂 well they need a bit of straight to the point so good for you!

And I went slightly mad with a response in which I said something I neither intended nor think to be the case, which doesn't help. And then the damn' thread went missing from "Notifications" for twenty-four hours so the stupid post sat there being obvious nonsence for ages before I got to it.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-21-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted successful drone strikes against targets in Leningrad and Tula oblasts, where repeated Ukrainian drone strikes may fix Russian short-range air defense systems defending potentially significant targets along expected flight routes.
• Moldovan authorities accused Russian peacekeepers in Transnistria of numerous violations, including the improper use of drones, while conducting exercises in late December 2023, prompting an information attack by a pro-Kremlin mouthpiece.
• Russia is likely intensifying relations with North Korea as part of an effort to procure more artillery ammunition from abroad amid Russian munition shortages.
• Russian forces advanced near Avdiivka amid continued positional engagements along the front.
• Russian opposition outlet Mobilization News reported on January 21 that likely Russian military commanders are mistreating troops at a training ground in Volgograd Oblast.
• Russian federal subjects continue to foster patronage networks in occupied Ukraine.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

North Korea is currently Russia's largest arms supplier, Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) chief Kyrylo Budanov told the Financial Times in an interview published on Jan. 21. https://kyivindependent.com/budanov-north-korea-currently-russias-largest-arms-supplier/

Explosions and large fires were reported in several Russian cities overnight on Jan. 21, in an possible coordinated effort by Ukraine to strike key targets deep inside Russian territory.
The terminal of Russia's Novatek natural gas company caught fire in the port of Ust-Luga in Leningrad Oblast near St Petersburg, Governor Alexander Drozdenko reported on Telegram. https://kyivindependent.com/multiple-attacks-reported-overnight-targeting/

⚡️Russian proxies claim https://kyivindependent.com/russian-proxies-claim-ukrainian-attack-on-donetsk-kills-27/ Ukrainian attack on Donetsk kills 27.
An attack on a marketplace in Donetsk on Jan. 21 allegedly killed 27 civilians and injured 25 others, Denis Pushilin, the head of Russia's illegal occupation administration in Donetsk Oblast, reported via Telegram.
Ukraine's Tavria Group, the military units fighting on the southeastern front lines, denied involvement in the attack. [ possible false-flag? Accident? ]

⚡️National Resistance Center: Ukrainians denied https://kyivindependent.com/national-resistance-center-ukrainians-denied-medical-treatment-in-russian-occupied-territories/ medical treatment in Russian-occupied territories.

The terminal of Russia's Novatek natural gas company near St. Petersburg has halted operations after an alleged Ukrainian drone strike caused a large fire at the fuel plant, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 21. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-novatek-gas-plant-halts-operations-after-suspected-ukrainian-drone-attack/

⚡️WSJ: EU creates https://kyivindependent.com/wsj-eu-creates-fresh-plan-for-22-billion-in-military-support-for-ukraine/ fresh plan for $22 billion in military support for Ukraine.

Hackers targeted Monobank, Ukraine's largest mobile-only bank, with waves of denial of service (DDoS) attacks on Jan. 21, the company's co-founder and CEO Oleh Horokhovskyi reported. https://kyivindependent.com/massive-cyberattack-targets-ukrainian-online-bank/

Russia's capture of Krokhmalne, a village in Kharkiv Oblast, is a “temporary phenomenon,” the Ukrainian Ground Forces Command spokesperson Volodymyr Fityo said, as quoted by Hromadske on Jan. 21. https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-military-spokesperson-russias-capture-of-kharkiv-oblast-village-is-a-temporary-phenomenon/

⚡️ Russia strikes https://kyivindependent.com/russia-strikes-zaporizhzhia-oblast-95-times-injuring-one-civilian/ Zaporizhzhia Oblast 95 times, injuring civilian.

Local media and Russian occupation authorities reported several explosions in the port city of Sevastopol in occupied Crimea on Jan. 21. https://kyivindependent.com/explosions-reported-in-occupied-sevastopol-3/

⚡️CNN: Ukraine's front lines infested https://kyivindependent.com/cnn-ukraines-front-lines-infested-with-rats/ with rats.
Ukraine's front lines are infested with mice and rats, carrying serious illnesses to soldiers and impacting combat capabilities, CNN reported on Jan. 21.

Guardian: UK gives https://kyivindependent.com/guardian-uk-gives-un-photos-of-north-korean-shipments-to-russia/ UN photos of North Korean shipments to Russia.

⚡️Romanian farmers demand https://kyivindependent.com/romanian-farmers-demand-import-limits-on-ukrainian-agricultural-products-amid-eu-concerns/ import limits on Ukrainian agricultural products, threaten more protests.

The Russian opposition has called for the nomination of Boris Nadezhdin, who is publicly opposed to Russia's full-scale war and Putin's policies, RFE/RL and other outlets reported on Jan. 22. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-opposition-calls-for-nomination-of-anti-war-politician-boris-nadezhdin-in-presidential-race/
Nadezhdin, who previously served in Russia's parliament, has attracted attention for repeatedly voicing his opposition to the war on television.

A Russian plane has likely crashed in Afghanistan with six people on board, Reuters reported on Jan. 21. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-plane-crashes-in-afghanistan/

Ukraine will take steps to research, publicize, and protect the histories of Ukrainians living in parts of modern-day Russia that have been historically inhabited by Ukrainians, according to a decree signed by President Volodymyr Zelensky on Jan. 22.

⚡️Mediazona confirms https://kyivindependent.com/mediazona-confirms-identities-of-over-42-000-russian-soldiers-killed-in-ukraine/ identities of over 42,000 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine.

⚡️Home of detained investment banker Ihor Mazepa, vocal critic of state pressure on business, burns down https://kyivindependent.com/ihor-mazepa-home-burns-down/ overnight.

⚡️Pritzker: US economic aid 'essential' https://kyivindependent.com/pritzker-us-economic-aid-essential-for-ukrainian-victory-global-security/ for Ukrainian victory, global security.

Ragnar Gudmundsson

WAR IN #UKRAINE - JAN 22, 2024
■ Moststrikes in last four days,ones slightly below 7-day average
■ Fewer combat engagements & settlements under artillery fire
■ Casualties & landbased equipment losses slightly below average
■ 25 drones & one missile shot down

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Ukraine is reportedly constructing a nearly thousand-kilometer-long line of "active defense," resembling the "Surovikin Line" utilized by the Russian Federation, according to The Telegraph.
The Ukrainian fortifications include a three-tiered system of trenches, tank traps, and strongpoints, mimicking the Russian approach that disrupted the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces. The article notes the reproduction of minefields, which have posed challenges for Ukrainian brigades operating Western armored vehicles.
A distinctive feature of the Ukrainian defense is its reinforcement closer to rear areas. While a tougher line could reduce the number of troops required to hold positions, extended periods in trenches, especially during winter, could impact the skills and physical condition of soldiers.
A more flexible approach on the front line allows Ukrainian troops to train for both defense and offensive actions.
The strongest defense is noted in the north, particularly in the Chernihiv region, where fortifications have reportedly been strengthened by 63%, according to Reuters. Dug trenches and wide anti-tank ditches have been implemented in the direction previously used by occupiers to attack Kyiv in 2022, enabling the main part of the troops to be kept closer to the front.

Ukraine is not going to abandon offensive operations and go on the defensive in 2024, said the head of the President's Office Yermak in an interview with Le Figaro

The annual economic forum has taken place in Davos, Switzerland. Ukraine and it’s impact on the global processes has been among the number one subjects under discussion.

❗️Prime Minister of Poland Donald Tusk came to Kyiv

🇵🇱🇺🇦 Tusk in Kyiv stated that there are conflicts of interest in Ukrainian-Polish relations, but these problems should be resolved as soon as possible.

🇵🇱 Zelenskyy announced that Poland will hand over a new package of weapons to Kyiv.

🇺🇸 The US is developing a plan for a long military campaign against the Yemeni Houthis, as previous strikes failed to stop the group's attacks on ships in the Red Sea. Sources at The Washington Post say the operation isn't expected to "stretch out for years," but U.S. officials also don't know when it will end.

Ukraine celebrated a historic achievement as its first female tennis player, Marta Kostyuk, advanced to the quarterfinals of the Australian Open 2024.

At the peak of transportation problems in the Middle East, European countries did not experience an increase in gas prices, which may indicate the success of renouncing Russian gas, according to Bloomberg.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

The head of the Ukrainian intelligence agency Kyrylo Budanov urged "not to rush to conclusions", speaking about the death of the leader of the PMC "Wagner" Yevgeniy Prigozhin.
"I am not saying that he is not dead or that he is dead. I am saying that there is not a single proof that he is dead."

NATO's largest exercise starts in Europe today, January 22
About 90 thousand soldiers from 31 countries of the alliance and Sweden will take part in the military maneuvers "Steady Defender".

The commander of the Russian IL-22 shot down over the Sea of Azov died of shrapnel wounds
Viktor Klimov, the commander of the IL-22 air command post, which was damaged over the Sea of Azov, has died. This was reported by the Russian test pilot Alexander Garnayev in his Facebook. The plane was landed by the co-pilot, who was also injured. Officially information about the death of Klimov has not been confirmed.

Wives of Russian mobilized men went to Putin's election headquarters to get their men back from war

Zelensky submits a bill on multiple citizenship to the Verkhovna Rada
"This will allow all ethnic Ukrainians and their descendants from around the world to have our citizenship. Of course, except for the citizens of the aggressor country," the president said in his congratulations on the 105th anniversary of the Unification of Ukraine

On January 22, 1919, the Western Ukrainian People's Republic and the Ukrainian People's Republic solemnly united into a single state on St. Sophia Square in Kyiv
Both of them emerged after the collapse of the Austro-Hungarian and Russian empires during World War I. Full unification was not achieved due to foreign policy factors and internal contradictions between the leaderships of both republics.

Have you seen Ben hodges latest tweet of a daily Mail diagram? What do you think of this and his use of it? If just seems to me a bit...weird in its projection and simultaneous short sightedness about right now.
I'm not sure

What do you think of this and his use of it?

I'd be wonder if he's aware of the Mail's reputation when it comes to detailed analysis, or just maybe he thought it was a nice graphic...

It's so clearly awful I'm really surprised at how he's used it

Link x.com/general_ben/status/1749379739549143296?s=46&t=ZRiOqYBPJdwGCarjKNzCeQ

He’s quoted in the article itself I seem to remember which makes me wonder if they actually spoke with him directly.

I’m really not one for conspiracy theories but there certainly does seem to be a lot of media traffic around war between NATO and Russia etc. at the moment. The Doomsday clock is due to move tomorrow so could be around that I suppose.

It's as a result of Gen Bauer's comments at a nato press conference which introduced these NATO military exercises. And yes BH is interviewed in the Mail but there's a lot of mismatch going on. A lot of it is definitely being inserted into new contexts and scary narratives. On one level it seems designed to justify the exercises and investment in the military and, quite rightly, deterrence. But it's ramped up to a whole other level in eg the DM predictions and now public responses about how we're being prepared for wider war. I find this all very irresponsible. And Hodges is piggy backing on it with a "not inevitable" caveat rather than repackaging it in clear, sensible terms. IMO.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-22-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Russia continues to weaponize its position on the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to propagate several long-standing Russian information operations.
• Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk visited Kyiv on January 22 and announced a new Polish defense package for Ukraine.
• Footage purportedly showing an altercation between a Russian soldier and Chechen “Akhmat-Vostok” forces in occupied Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast, reignited criticism of Chechen forces for their lack of contributions to Russian military operations in Ukraine.
• An investigation by a Russian opposition outlet suggests that Russian elites may have accepted and internalized the domestic consequences of Russia’s war in Ukraine.
• Russian officials and information space actors are attempting to further rhetorically justify Russia’s invasion of Ukraine by misrepresenting a decree that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed on January 22 concerning discrimination against ethnic Ukrainians in Russia. Zelensky’s decree does not establish any territorial demands upon Russia, as select Russian ultranationalists falsely claimed.
• Russian forces made confirmed advances south of Avdiivka and west of Donetsk City amid continued positional engagements along the entire frontline.
• Kyrgyzstan issued a statement against Russia’s continued practice of targeting naturalized migrants as part of ongoing crypto-mobilization efforts.
• Russian federal subjects continue to establish ties with areas of occupied Ukraine.

A LOT of artillery systems lost and APVs.

Sobering and spot on article by Oz Katerji about the consequences and outlook of a Trump presidency for Ukraine and Europe: foreignpolicy.com/2023/12/19/ukraine-2024-united-states-congress-aid-russia-war/

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Bloomberg: Turkish parliament to vote https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-turkish-parliament-to-vote-on-swedens-nato-accession-in-coming-days/ on Sweden's NATO accession in coming days.
Turkey has delayed Sweden's entrance into the alliance, dragging out the process for more than 17 months since Sweden initially applied in May 2022.

European Union foreign ministers have reached a political agreement to finalize the work on transferring revenues from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine based on the proposal suggested in December, EU's top diplomat Josep Borrell said on Jan. 22. https://kyivindependent.com/borrell-eu-foreign-ministers-agree-on-plan-to-transfer-profits-from-frozen-russian-assets-to-ukraine/

⚡️ In comments at UN, Lavrov rules out https://kyivindependent.com/in-comments-at-un-lavrov-rules-out-western-ukraine-backed-peace-proposals/ Western, Ukraine-backed peace proposals.

⚡️ Umerov: Belgium pledges (https://kyivindependent.com/umerov-belgium-pledges-665-million-in-military-aid-to-ukraine-in-2024/ $665 million in military aid to Ukraine in 2024

Move to expand mobilization brings Ukrainian society face-to-face with immense pressure of war https://kyivindependent.com/move-to-expand-mobilization-brings-ukrainian-society-face-to-face-with-immense-pressure-of-war/
As Russia’s full-scale war approaches its third year and looks ready to drag on for several more, one topic is dominating the discussion in Ukraine: mobilization.
Ukraine’s acute need to mobilize hundreds of thousands more men to stay in the fight against Russia is felt everywhere

Can Ukraine’s economy survive without foreign aid? Experts aren’t sure https://kyivindependent.com/foreign-aid-finances-solutions/
The budget deficit is expected to reach $44 billion and Kyiv is hoping to cover it with both domestic borrowing and financial aid from abroad.

⚡️Ukrainian government officials, business leaders hold meeting https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-government-officials-business-leaders-meet-amid-fallout-from-detainment-of-prominent-invest-banker/ amid fallout from detainment of prominent invest banker.

⚡️Ukrainian government to propose https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-government-to-propose-banning-entry-of-russian-registered-vehicles-for-50-years/ banning entry of Russian-registered vehicles for 50 years. [can't actually see how that will work, but in the short term it'll discourage Russian visitors I suppose]

⚡️Prosecutor General: Ukrainian law enforcement has seized https://kyivindependent.com/prosecutor-general-ukrainian-law-enforcement-has-arrested-over-260-russia-linked-properties-since-february-2022/ over 260 Russia-linked properties since February 2022.

⚡️Ombudsman: Russia deports https://kyivindependent.com/ombudsman-russia-deports-17-children-with-disabilities-from-occupied-donetsk-oblast/ 17 children with disabilities from occupied Donetsk Oblast
"A mandatory condition for treatment is the presence of a Russian passport, which, by (Russian dictator Vladimir) Putin's order, is issued according to a simplified procedure. In this way, Russian citizenship is imposed under coercion, which contradicts the norms of international law."

⚡️Russia to be grilled https://kyivindependent.com/russia-to-be-grilled-on-fate-of-forcibly-deported-ukrainian-children-at-un-committee/ on fate of forcibly deported Ukrainian children at UN Committee.

⚡️Prosecutor’s Office: Last defendant in Hrynkevych corruption scandal arrested https://kyivindependent.com/prosecutors-office-last-defendant-in-hrynkevychs-corruption-scandal-arrested-in-attempt-to-flee-country/ in attempt to flee country.

Talking Business in Ukraine: Conversation with Uklon https://kyivindependent.com/uklon-talking-business-in-ukraine/ Ukraine's leading ride-hailing service
Uklon is Ukraine's leader in the ride-hailing industry, bringing together tens of thousands of drivers who collectively complete over four million trips each month.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦

⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - JAN 23, 2024
■ 3rd highest casualties & most landbased equipment losses this year so far; 2024 record for vehicles, APVs & artillery
■ KIU: batch of +38 officers, daily average up
■ Oryx: 64 🇷🇺 36 🇺🇦 added to records, 30-day ratio narrowing

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

🇫🇮 The head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Finland: our task is to provide Ukraine with the necessary weapons and "disperse" the European defense industry [They mean build it up throughout Europe]

Lithuania and Poland are preparing to conduct joint military exercises in the Suvalsky Isthmus, or corridor, whose location makes it extremely vulnerable in the event of a theoretical Russian aggression on NATO's eastern flank.
The Suval Corridor is a 100-kilometer-wide section of the border between Lithuania and Poland, bordering the Kaliningrad region of Russia in the west and Belarus in the east. In the event of a hypothetical war with Russia, it would be important to quickly seize the Suval Corridor to cut off the NATO allies' land route to the Baltic states

🇬🇧 The British ambassador in Kyiv, Martin Harris, said that drones for Ukraine, for which Britain will allocate 200 million pounds, will be produced on the territory of both countries.

Hungary will not participate in financing arms supplies to Ukraine from the European Peace Fund, but it cannot interfere with other countries, said the country’s Foreign Minister Szijjártó

According to The Wall Street Journal, the EU is considering the creation of a new fund for financial aid to Ukraine amounting to 20 billion euros, aiming to bypass Hungary's veto. The proposed fund would use 6.5 billion euros from the European Peace Fund established in 2022, with an additional 5 billion euros planned to be allocated from 2024 to 2027.
The new fund is intended to compensate EU countries for their expenses in providing military aid to the Kyiv authorities. It also aims to cover the costs of combat training programs for Ukrainian troops. The initiative envisions compensating EU countries with up to 7.5 billion euros in 2024.
This aid initiative is designed to enable smaller EU member states with limited ammunition to collaborate in joint purchases, providing substantial assistance to Ukraine

Robert Zoellick, former World Bank president, has characterized the transfer of frozen Russian assets to Ukraine as "elegant justice," as reported by The Financial Times.

The war in Ukraine has reportedly led Russia to lose confidence in conventional weapons, increasing the importance of non-strategic nuclear weapons, according to a report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), as reviewed by the agency. [see later post]

A potential scenario for a Russian attack on NATO has been published – Daily Mail
Main stages:
▪️ The invasion will begin with cyber attacks that will cause major disruptions in the operation of infrastructure and satellites;
▪️The Russian Federation will launch a massive missile strike against infrastructure facilities throughout Europe: airports, naval bases, logistics centers;
▪️The ground operation will begin. The priority will be an attempt to capture the Suwalki corridor, and then an attack on the Baltic countries or Poland;
▪️The Russian Navy will try to take control of the Arctic and, with the help of missiles, the North Atlantic;
▪️After this, Moscow will take a “pause” to assess NATO’s readiness to defend its eastern members.
These are the conclusions reached by teams of ex-military officials and MailOnline security experts. The map describes a Russian attack on Europe that could happen before 2044.

From UNITED24 Media Telegram

The war in Ukraine has reportedly led Russia to lose confidence in conventional weapons, increasing the importance of non-strategic nuclear weapons, according to a report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), as reviewed by the agency.

William Alberque, the author of the report and IISS Director of Strategy, Technology, and Arms Control, suggests that Moscow now sees non-strategic nuclear weapons as a more effective means of deterring and defeating NATO in a potential future conflict. Alberque speculates that Russia may consider using such weapons because it believes the West lacks the resolve to launch a nuclear retaliatory strike.

The report notes that Russian authorities do not view the American arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons as a serious threat. Moscow is reportedly confident in its ability to respond promptly to an increased U.S. nuclear presence in Europe.

The inability of the Russian army to achieve victory in the Ukraine conflict using conventional weapons is cited as a factor leading Moscow to reassess the role of nuclear weapons.

However, Alberque believes that Western intelligence would likely detect Russia's preparations for the use of non-strategic nuclear weapons in advance. Indicators could include the movement of weapons from storage facilities to air bases and possibly conventional strikes near the potential nuclear strike zone. In such a scenario, the report suggests that Putin would move to a nuclear shelter, and the entire Russian nuclear command system would be put on high alert in anticipation of a possible U.S. nuclear response.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

The Novatek plant attacked by Ukrainian drones on the Baltic Sea coast may resume operations in a few weeks or even months, Reuters reports https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/analysts-see-russian-fuel-complex-resuming-operations-within-weeks-after-2024-01-22/ citing Russian analysts.
Sinara Investment Bank said that a quarter of Novatek's revenues could be affected by the incident.

Ukrainian pilots are already flying F-16s with instructors, said Air Force spokesman Ihnat.
The other day, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said that Ukrainian pilots could launch their first strikes with F-16s against the Russian army this year. He added that preparations for the transfer of the fighters are going according to plan.

The Air Force destroyed 21 out of 41 missiles

In total, the Russians fired at Ukraine:

• 4 S-300/S-400 anti-aircraft guided missiles;
• 15 Kh-101/Kh-555/Kh-55 cruise missiles;
• 8 Kh-22 missiles;
• 12 Iskander-M ballistic missiles;
• 2 X-59 guided missiles.

In Ukraine, five people were killed in the morning Russian shelling, at least 40 were injured. The Ministry of Internal Affairs publishes the results of the attack.