Ukraine Invasion: Part 46

[MagicFox]

With thanks to all keeping these threads going 🇺🇦

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

excellent. Although the shortfall in the armed forces budget is insane.

6th biggest economy in the world and huge amounts of poverty, the NHS is in desperate straits and the armed forces are cut to the bone and beyond. What the hell has gone wrong?

I'm sure he can afford some truly excellent face creams!

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-11-2024

Key Takeaways:

• The reported concentration of the Russian military’s entire combat-capable ground force in Ukraine and ongoing Russian force generation efforts appear to allow Russian forces to conduct routine operational level rotations in Ukraine.
• Russia’s ability to conduct operational level rotations will likely allow Russian forces to maintain the overall tempo of their localized offensive operations in eastern Ukraine in the near term, but it is unclear if Russian forces will be able to conduct effective rotations in the long term or in the event of intensified Russian offensive efforts or a significant Ukrainian counteroffensive operation.
• Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russian efforts to expand Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB) have yet to fulfill operational requirements in Ukraine and that munitions shortages will continue to prompt Russia to source supplies from abroad.
• Freezing temperatures in Ukraine are likely constraining operations along the front but will likely create more favorable terrain for mechanized maneuver warfare as the ground freezes in the coming weeks.
• Latvia and Estonia announced new military aid packages to Ukraine on January 11.
• Russia may be setting information conditions for future escalations against Latvia by threatening to punish Latvia for closing a likely base of Russian informational influence in Latvia.
• European Commission (EC) Defense Industry Spokesperson Johanna Bernsel clarified on January 11 that European Union (EU) member states will be able to produce a million shells per year by spring 2024 but that the delivery of the shells to Ukraine will depend on individual member states.
• The US Department of Defense (DoD) Office of the Inspector General published a report on January 11 that states that the failure to document certain aid provided to Ukraine in a timely manner is largely due to DoD limitations but that does not suggest that any of the material aid has been misappropriated.
• Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk announced on January 11 that the Verkhovna Rada withdrew a draft law on mobilization for revisions after discussions between Ukrainian legislators and political and military leadership.
• A Ukrainian official indicated that the Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) may struggle to compensate for the loss of base infrastructure after allocating naval assets away from the BSF’s main base of Sevastopol in occupied Crimea.
• Ukrainian and Russian forces continued positional engagements along the entire front.
• Kremlin newswire TASS reported on January 10 that Russian forces will deploy additional aircraft and vessels and increase the production of hypersonic Kinzhal and Zircon missiles in 2024.
• The Belarusian Ministry of Emergency Situations stated on January 10 that it sponsored a trip for 35 Ukrainian children from occupied Ukraine to Mogilev for the New Year holiday during which soldiers taught children “the basics of life safety” and how to behave in “extreme situations.”

Note:
.... Skibitskyi stated that most Russian units in Ukraine are manned at between 92 and 95 percent of their intended end strength and that the size of the Russian grouping in Ukraine allows Russian forces to conduct rotations throughout the theater. ...Russian forces withdraw units that are at 50 percent or less of their intended end strength to rear areas and return them to the front following recovery and replenishment.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Situation on eastern front difficult as Russia conducts offensives in 3 sectors, in the Kupiansk, Lyman, and Bakhmut directions, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi said on Jan. 11. kyivindependent.com/commander-situation-on-eastern-front-difficult-russia-attacks-in-3-directions/

⚡️FT: EU prepares https://kyivindependent.com/ft-eu-prepares-concessions-to-hungary-over-ukraine-funds/ concessions to Hungary over Ukraine funds.
The Commission is open to giving Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban an opportunity to stop the funding agreement in 2025 in exchange for his approval now, three officials close to the matter told FT. [fucking hell, that unutterable decomposing innards of a dead cat - why the fuck is the EU having anything to do with him!]

The militaries of the U.S. and U.K. launched strikes against multiple targets in Houthi-controlled regions of Yemen on Jan. 11 in response to Houthi attacks on Red Sea ships, U.S. President Joe Biden confirmed in a press statement. https://kyivindependent.com/us-uk-attack-houthi-military-targets-in-yemen/

⚡️ Lawmakers return crucial mobilization bill to government for revision.
Following talks with defense representatives, lawmakers returned the government's bill on mobilization and military service for a revision, David Arakhamia, the head of President Volodymyr Zelensky's Servant of the People faction, reported on Jan. 11. https://kyivindependent.com/parliament-returns-mobilization-bill-to-government-for-revision/

⚡️ Latvia announces new aid for Kyiv https://kyivindependent.com/latvia-announces-new-military-aid-package-for-ukraine-including-artillery-helicopters/ "Today I also informed the president of Ukraine about the next aid package, which includes howitzers, 155 mm ammunition, anti-tank weapons, rockets, grenades, helicopters, drones, communication devices, generators, as well as (other) equipment," Rinkevics said.

⚡️PM Sunak to visit Kyiv (https://kyivindependent.com/pm-sunak-to-visit-kyiv-announce-3-1-billion-military-aid-package/), announce $3.1 billion military aid package, including largest-ever commitment of drones, the U.K. government reported.
Sunak and Zelensky are also set to sign a historic U.K.-Ukraine Agreement on Security Cooperation, the first finalized bilateral agreement on security guarantees under the Group of Seven (G7) declaration.

⚡️Turkey, Romania https://kyivindependent.com/turkey-romania-bulgaria-sign-deal-on-black-sea-mine-clearance/ Bulgaria sign deal on Black Sea mine clearance.
Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria signed a memorandum of understanding on Black Sea de-mining in Istanbul on Jan. 11, aiming to ensure safe grain shipments from Ukraine, the Bulgarian Defense Ministry reported. [hopefully now the 2 UK mineclearer ships can get to work - Turkiye had been blocking them]

⚡️Kuleba to meet Hungarian counterpart, discuss https://kyivindependent.com/kuleba-to-meet-hungarian-counterpart-discuss-potential-zelensky-orban-meeting/ potential Zelensky-Orban meeting.

⚡️ Finland extends closure of border with Russia https://kyivindependent.com/finland-extends-closure-of-border-with-russia-for-another-month/ for another month.

The International Finance Corporation (IFC), a private investment arm of the World Bank, gathered almost $1 billion to rebuild Ukraine's private sector, Reuters reported on Jan. 11, citing IFC Managing Director Makhtar Diop. Around $620 million of the sum comes from the IFC's own balance sheet and $360 million from external sources, Diop said. https://kyivindependent.com/world-banks-ifc-mobilizes-almost-1-billion-to-aid-ukraines-recovery/

⚡️Military: Kremlin using coal subsidies to force Russian passports https://kyivindependent.com/military-russia-uses-subsidized-coal-as-another-incentive-for-occupied-kherson-oblast-residents-to-take-russian-passports/ on residents in occupied Kherson Oblast.
Multiple settlements in the occupied part of Kherson Oblast remain without power supply amid freezing temperatures, creating more need for coal, according to the center.

The U.S. improved its systems for monitoring military aid sent to Ukraine, but failed to track over $1 billion in weapons as of June 2023, according to a report from the U.S. Defense Department Inspector General's Office published Jan. 10. https://kyivindependent.com/pentagon-watchdog-us-did-not-track-all-weapons-sent-to-ukraine/

⚡️ Prosecutor General: Kyiv has preliminary evidence https://kyivindependent.com/russia-uses-north-korean-missiles-in-ukraine-prosecutor-general-confirms/ Russia uses North Korean missiles in Ukraine.

⚡️Defense Ministry approves https://kyivindependent.com/defense-ministry-approves-second-design-of-body-armor-for-female-soldiers/ second design of body armor for female soldiers.

Ukraine's National Agency on Corruption Prevention accused on Jan. 11 Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal of exposing the identity of a whistleblower who had reported wrongdoing of the head of the Commission for Regulation of Gambling and Lotteries. https://kyivindependent.com/corruption-prevention-agency-accuses-pm-shmyhal-of-illegally-exposing-whistleblower-pm-denies/

⚡️Official: Over 25 Ukrainian journalists remain https://kyivindependent.com/official-over-25-ukrainian-journalists-remain-in-russian-captivity/ in Russian captivity.

⚡️Media: Court seizes property https://kyivindependent.com/media-court-seizes-property-of-businessmen-implicated-in-defense-ministry-corruption-scandal/ of businessmen implicated in Defense Ministry corruption scandal.

⚡️US sanctions https://kyivindependent.com/us-sanctions-russian-transport-company/ director of Russian military transport company Vladimir Mikheychik.

Ragnar Gudmundsson

WAR IN #UKRAINE - JAN 12, 2024
■ Combat engagements & settlements under artillery fire stay above 7-day average
■ Unusually few strikes of both sides reported
■ 800+ casualties for the 4th day in a row
■ Landbased equipment losses below average but good tank & APV losses
■ Freezing temperatures on all fronts

Thank you so much for all your updates. I have a question for posters on here. We are in a situation now where we have some 370,000 Russian men dead in Ukraine in just under two years. I find it strange (horrifying) that the focus is on some 10,000 palestinian civilian deaths in Gaza and absolutely no one seems to care about Russia's mass killing of its own men. Its as if these men are utterly worthless even to their own people. In any other country this would be cataclysmic. Russia WTF. 370,000. I cant get my head around that. Their initial army was about 1m in total as i understand it. We can assume some 700,000 wounded. How do they have any army left. who is dying and clearly the world doesn't care (why?) but even Russians don't seem to care. Over 1million men dead or wounded. I cant be the only person shocked by this?

The other thing i wanted to find out about is how big is the Russian army? How are they still going? 6070 tanks are now out of action. How many more do they have left? With the amount they have lost in Ukraine is most countries army x 3. Surely they will run out of hardware soon?

The simple response is no, the Russian's don't give a rats ass about their own men.

Hi @lovelysoap :)

Russia has been quietly carrying out an unofficial mobilization all of last year. They want to avoid an official mobilization because then public sentiment would crystalize against the govt.

Iirc (and my memory can be hazy, but I think this is right) there are about 500,000 Russian military in Ukraine now. Some of those will not be front line soldiers. Exactly how many are front line, I don't know.

The numbers of Ukrainian soldiers are kept quiet and so are the numbers of Ukrainian mililtary deaths. Russian figures can't be trusted at all, both because the Kremlin lies a LOT and because reports that go up the chain of command to the top seem to be often inaccurate.

About the hardware - yeah. It's a big problem for Russia. A lot (but not all) the time they rely on human waves, like in WW1.

Reasons for saying that? Satellite imagery seems to indicate that Russian tank / artillery storage yards have been emptied. But they had a gigantic stockpile in the first place. Many of those are not useable, but some still are/were.

But yes, there are huge problems in hardware (and missiles and drones, which is why they buy them in bulk from Iran and N Korea).

The Russians took Bakhmut and tried to take Avdiivka by literally human waves. Almost every day at the height of these attacks, they were losing 1000 soldiers a day.

>>

The really interesting question is why do ordinary Russians put up with this?

My own view is that under the Soviet Union lives were cheap. Stalin himself destroyed millions of Russians in purges. But the Soviet Union was really only a change in management. Under the Tsars life was also extremely cheap if you read up even a little bit about the lives of the peasants.

So I think it is a characteristic of the culture. Life is cheap. Their own lives, and the lives of others.

Plus if you protest, you will get taken to prison. One 11 year old girl did an anti-war picture at school and she was removed from her father, who was sent to prison - and Russian prisons are dreadful. If you know that's going to happen, you don't stick your head over the parapet.

Plus Putin frames this invasion as 'we have to do this or the West will destroy Russia!". There's very little or no other viewpoint in most of Russia. So people believe it. So it's an existential war for survival, in some people's minds.

I personally think, and this is only my own private theory, that there is a sort of savage striving to win deep in the Russian male psyche (this is a broad generalization, there are always exceptions!!) and that there is a lack of empathy for others. So other people's suffering just doesn't matter. Allied with this is a strange need to make themselves, Russians, out to be The Best. Every country has a secret streak of that, but the need to win seems extreme in Russia.

I've heard some absolutely sickening, haunting, dreadful stories of Russian soldiers taking out their savagery on children and on women and on men. The lightest part of this is chopping off heads and putting them on spikes. It seems to be almost systematic.

You always have to ask 'is this story true' and one never completely knows, but some of them have come from Ukrainian guests who escaped Kherson and yes, I believe them. I wish I didn't.

There's been some discussion on these threads of Russia's horrifying lack of concern towards its own forces, and callousness towards its own injured (apparently shooting those incapacitated on the battle field) leading to incredibly high fatality rates. The human wave stuff is just appalling.

I can't find the exact post now, but someone did link an article explaining that Ukraine, too, had assumed that Russia – and more importantly Russian families – did not want their men to die.

But that realisation had dawned that this is not always true: a family which has had a drunken wife-beater or convicted criminal killed in the war may actually prefer the financial compensation which lifts the family out of extreme poverty. Plus the additional buzz that now this unpleasant man is hailed as a hero and martyr to the new Great Patriotic War, with his family revered for their sacrifice.

The extent to which this is true I've no idea. But it's fair to say that overall Russia is not viewing its losses the same way Ukraine views Ukrainian losses (or the UK would view losses in a war).

Whether or not a family considers compensation is preferable (and how awful must life be for that to be true?), Russia's losses make me feel extremely sorry for Russians – despite what they are inflicting on Ukrainians.

I read the Anthony Beevor book about the Russian revolution in 1917 - 1921 and their treatment of their own soldiers, civilians, enemy soldiers and civilians doesn't seem to have changed from then. It was extremely harrowing and I believe Beevor ended up with PTSD just from researching the book

Almost certainly he left a lot out too.

UNITED 24 Media Telegram Highlights

Neither Ukraine nor Russia can carry out an offensive due to mining and the active use of UAVs, — Budanov
In an interview with Le Monde, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate noted that modern electronic warfare equipment is needed to suppress drones, and special equipment is needed to clear mines.

The European Commission may at the end of February publish an assessment of the reforms in Ukraine, which depends on the start of negotiations on joining the EU, — Radio Svoboda correspondent in Europe Rikard Jozvyak.

The EU is ready to make concessions to Hungary in order to unlock 50 billion euros, — Financial Times
In particular, in 2025, Budapest may get an opportunity to assess whether Ukraine needs money and whether it has fulfilled the requirements for receiving EU aid.
In addition, the European Commission is ready to conduct an annual audit of aid and to introduce provisions on the termination of aid "halfway" — that is, any EU country will be able to ask questions about the continuation of aid to Ukraine.
Citing sources, the publication writes that Hungary is willing to negotiate and such concessions should be enough for Orbán to remove the EU veto of 50 billion euros.

Zelenskyy reproached Western partners that if they had given Ukraine more powerful air defense systems, people would not have died from Russia's massive ballistic missile attacks. Simultaneously with the criticism, the president thanked the Western partners for their support.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has rejected claims that Italy should not send weapons to Ukraine because it would escalate the conflict.

In Sloviansk, the veterinary clinic is consistently busy. The military regularly brings animals rescued from the war zone for examination and care.

The Czech company Isolit-Bravo has declared the delivery of UGV Trail-Blazer remote control cars to Ukraine. These vehicles, with a carrying capacity of up to 350 kg, are specifically designed for evacuating the wounded and transporting essential supplies, including ammunition, to the battlefield.
As of now, Isolit-Bravo has already supplied 8 vehicles to the 1st separate tank brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, with an additional four vehicles anticipated for delivery. This contribution is expected to enhance the mobility and logistical capabilities of the Ukrainian forces in the field.

Sorry, that was the Kharkiv hotel that was destroyed. Double posted the photos.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

US aid to Ukraine has "stopped," says White House spokesman.
"The assistance we have been providing has now stopped, and Russian strikes are only intensifying."
Negotiations continue in Washington on a deal that would tie aid to Ukraine to US border security.

At a press conference with Baltic media in Riga, President Volodymyr Zelensky said https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?ref=watch_permalink&v=739299478099663** that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had destroyed 26 Russian helicopters in a day with the help of Western long-range weapons. He did not specify when exactly this happened.
"We destroyed 26 helicopters in one day with long-range weapons from our partners. 12 planes that were taking off and then fired missiles against which these systems were working. We destroyed 12 at a time. We just had the means," Zelensky added. [wth?!]
Most likely, by the words "26 helicopters in a day" the president was referring to the strikes on Luhansk and Berdiansk airfields with ATACMS missiles on October 18.

Russia convenes an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council over strikes on Yemen

🇱🇻 Latvia is leading a "coalition of drones" within the Ramstein format, Latvian President Rinkēvičs said.

The head of the DIU said that the Russians are trying to create a naval base in the city of Ochamchire in the occupied territory of Georgia.
Defense Express has previously reported that the city's base itself has been used by the Russian Coast Guard and Border Service since 2009. This means that there is a plan to expand the base and organize the stay of warships there.
The northern part of the Black Sea is under Ukraine's control, as well as gas platforms, the DIU chief added.

Of all the electronic components imported by Russia for weapons production, 44% are developed by Western companies, according to a report https://kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Challenges-of-Export-Controls-Enforcement.pdf?fbclid=IwAR24--eXN2sVF4yGDIRZVb4kYb5o2b3HZeosq4LxRTFtDVx5APHvi7SzxAA by the Kyiv School of Economics and the Yermak-McFaul International Working Group on Russian Sanctions.
These are mostly products of American brands Intel, Analog Devices, AMD and Texas Instruments. At the same time, the German company Siemens is the leading supplier of numerically controlled machines.
Analysts explain that most military components are produced in the factories of these companies in third countries, such as China, so it is easier for the Russians to build schemes to circumvent sanctions.

The Russian government has announced the names of the winners of its own media awards for 2023
Award diplomas and bouquets of flowers from the hands of Prime Minister Mishustin were given to 66 employees of Russian propaganda media resources.
Popov and Skabeeva received two awards at once.

In particular, in 2025, Budapest may get an opportunity to assess whether Ukraine needs money and whether it has fulfilled the requirements for receiving EU aid.

Do you think this may be a case of get the aid through now, by 2025 we'll have circumvented Orban's ability to block it - I certainly hope so.

Imagine if the Soviet union had won the cold war. All of western Europe became assimilated into, or affiliated to the Soviet Union.
Thirty or so years later, the KGB instigates a coup in Canada, it replaces a democratically elected leader with one aligned to the Soviet Union. Canada states its intention to join the Warsaw pact. The Soviet Union then begins training and arming Canada.

What would the reaction of the United States be?

The Soviet Union was not powerful enough to take over all of Europe so it's an unfeasible scenario from the outset. However, there are some interesting points.

We are kind of in a fight for the survival of the West now because the hybrid war is very real and Russia is winning it, considering how Russia set rumours going about Zelensky owning yachts and that turned some Republicans against him. The endless lies that ordinary people living ordinary lies believe, because very few have the time to dig into the depths. Brexit (Farage and perhaps BoJo). Stoking the far right through immigration fears. Direct interference in elections.

Still, in your scenario, I don't think Russia could have taken over Canada. If it had then with the likes of Reagan in charge, it could have meant war (he was so right about Russia, as it turns out).

Fortunately for Russia it's managed to weaken the US political scene far enough that personally I think the scenario of the US going to war if Russia expands further (by political or military means) is most unlikely to happen.

But you never know. Push a country too far and the unexpected can happen, like with Maidan. Russia didn't expect the West to stand up against it invading Ukraine in the first place. If Russia did get Canada on side (can't see it myself) the the US might pull together - if the Trump types are not in charge.

Regarding Trump, he astonished the world by being elected in the first pace; perhaps an equally astonishing curve ball might come from somewhere else and turn the direction of events in another way. Possibly the environment might play a role in this.

Be interesting to know what others think!

I am amused by the words "won the cold war". Nobody won the cold war. The Soviet Union lost it all by themselves.

In the same way, Russia lost the war in Ukraine on about day #4 by failing to achieve their stated objective. Everything since has been a refusal to acknowledge that failure, and a prolonged throwing of good money after bad because they have failed to understand the sunk costs fallacy. The horror of it is that the "money" they are throwing is lives not lucre.

@DancesWithDucks

The Soviet Union was not powerful enough to take over all of Europe so it's an unfeasible scenario from the outset.

In terms of taking over militarily, i.e. invading, we will never know.

We don't really know how accurate NATO intelligence assessments were of Warpac capabilities decades back but certainly a lot of European forces weren't in a great shape at all in the very early 80s (poor equipment, not lots of funding for training - I remember our flying hours being cut to the absolute minimum because the UK was short of cash) .

In the event of the the Russians crossing the Inner German Border I think the feeling is forces in Germany etc would have maybe been able to hold the line or more likely just acted as speedbumps for a handful of days but then, backs to the wall, NATO would have had to have gone nuclear.

Probably just as well the Cold War stayed cold.

Have you read the Tom Clancy novel Red Storm Rising? It’s remarkably well researched and realistic for a work of fiction. I strongly recommend it if you haven’t.

I have read some of the US Army War College’s work on this too. As you would expect, it was studied extensively. It could easily have led to the use of tactical nuclear weapons to stop the Russians. But there were real deficiencies in the Red Army, and the German Army and the U.S. Army Europe forces were more combat ready than most other NATO forces of the time. The British Army had the same problems with insufficient funding as the RAF if it makes you feel any better. It wouldn’t have been a walkover for the Russians.

Thank God we never had to put it to the test.

Have you read the Tom Clancy novel Red Storm Rising?

Yep, and agreed it's v realistic, "The Third World War" by Sir John Hackett is along similar lines (Hackett was Commander, British Army on the Rhine in the late 60s). He deliberately painted a pretty grim picture of how quickly things could have gone nuclear in order to emphasise the need for conventional forces to adequately funded.

"Thank God we never had to put it to the test." Agreed..of course...

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-12-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Ukraine and the United Kingdom (UK) signed an agreement on bilateral security guarantees pursuant to the G7’s July 2023 joint declaration of support for Ukraine.
• US National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby stated on January 11 that the US has suspended security assistance to Ukraine and will not resume sending aid to Ukraine until the US Congress approves funding.
• Ukrainian Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov expressed confidence in Ukraine’s ability to produce one million first-person view (FPV) drones in 2024.
• Pentagon Spokesperson Brigadier General Patrick Ryder stated on January 11 that there is no credible evidence of the illegal diversion of US-provided advanced conventional weapons to Ukraine.
• The US Department of Treasury’s Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC) announced on January 11 sanctions against several Russian entities reportedly involved in the transfer of North Korean ballistic missiles to Russia.
• Actors in the Russia-backed breakaway republic of Transnistria may be setting information conditions for a possible false-flag operation in Transnistria as part of wider Kremlin efforts to destabilize Moldova.
• Russian occupation officials appear to be deliberately censoring information about Ukrainian children whom Russian authorities have illegally removed to occupied Crimea.
• Imprisoned Russian ultranationalist and former Russian officer Igor Girkin accused the Kremlin of hesitating to conduct operationally significant offensive operations in Ukraine or a new wave of mobilization in Russia as Ukraine “build[s] up [its] strength” for a future counteroffensive effort.
• Russian forces made confirmed marginal advances northeast of Bakhmut, northwest of Avdiivka, southwest of Donetsk City, west of Verbove, and in (east) left bank Kherson Oblast amid continued positional fighting along the entire front.
• The Russian State Duma will consider a draft law allowing foreigners with a criminal record to serve in the Russian Armed Forces.
• Russian Health Minister Mikhail Murashko confirmed that Russian authorities have deported over 2,100 Ukrainians, including 500 children, to Russia for medical reasons in 2023.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

US Congress continues to fight over border security, stalling Ukraine aid https://kyivindependent.com/us-congress-continues-to-fight-over-domestic-border-security-preventing-agreement-on-ukraine-aid/
Both Democrats and Republicans in U.S. Congress dug in their heels in the ongoing dispute over domestic border security, which has become tied to further support for Ukraine, and there appears to be little signs of progress. [@MissConductUS Im sorry but Im finding it very hard not to say extremely rude things about the US Congress at the moment]

⚡️Swiss Foreign Ministry: Ukraine Peace Formula meeting to take place https://kyivindependent.com/swiss-foreign-ministry-ukraine-peace-formula-meeting-to-take-place-in-davos/ in Davos on Jan. 14, where over 80 delegations are expected to participate, Switzerland’s Foreign Ministry announced on Jan 11.

⚡️Bloomberg: Russia preparing https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-russia-preparing-legal-defense-to-slow-prevent-seizure-of-frozen-assets/ legal defense to slow, prevent seizure of frozen assets.

⚡️IAEA experts continue to be denied https://kyivindependent.com/iaea-experts-continue-to-be-denied-access-to-reactor-halls-at-russian-occupied-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant/ access to reactor halls at Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.

⚡️ Sunak confirms https://kyivindependent.com/sunak-holds-talks-with-zelensky-confirms-3-1-billion-military-aid-package/ $3.2 billion aid package for Ukraine, signs security deal with Zelensky.

⚡️European Commission approves https://kyivindependent.com/european-commission-approves-romanian-126-million-euro-fund-to-support-danube-ports-impacted-by-war/ Romanian 126 million euro fund to support Danube ports impacted by war.

⚡️Newly-appointed French foreign minister arrives https://kyivindependent.com/newly-appointed-french-foreign-minister-kyiv/ in Kyiv.

⚡️ Ukrainian diaspora asks Australia to send 45 retired helicopters https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-diaspora-asks-austria-to-sent-45-decommissioned-helicopters-to-ukraine/ to Ukraine.
The Australian Federation of Ukrainian Organisations (AFUO) appealed on Jan. 12 to the Australian government to supply Ukraine with 45 decommissioned Taipan helicopters rather than scrapping them.
Media reports emerged in December that the Australian military decided to quietly disassemble and bury its fleet of multi-role Taipan helicopters, even though Kyiv sent an official request for their transfer to Ukraine.

⚡️Support grows https://kyivindependent.com/support-grows-for-petition-to-revoke-hungarys-voting-rights-at-european-parliament/ for petition to revoke Hungary's voting rights at European Parliament.
Petri Sarvamaa, a senior member of the EU's parliament, initially launched the petition on Jan. 9, which seeks to revoke some of Hungary's membership rights, including voting, due to the country's "erosion of the rule of law" and obstructive behavior in the face of EU consensus building.

⚡️ Military intelligence: Russia lacks some modern weapon parts https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-russia-faces-problems-with-modern-arms-parts-over-sanctions/ due to sanctions.
Russia is missing some weapon components like modern optics and electronics as a result of international trade restrictions, Military Intelligence (HUR) spokesperson Andrii Yusov said on Jan. 12

A Russian manufacturer of Orlan drones and other military-use equipment successfully increased production, the Ukrainian volunteer group InformNapalm said in its Jan. 12 analysis of the company's data leaked by hackers. https://kyivindependent.com/media-russian-drone-maker-ramps-up-production-despite-sanctions-leaks-show/

⚡️Kherson mayor’s son calls on https://kyivindependent.com/kherson-mayors-son-calls-on-zelensky-to-help-free-father-from-russian-captivity/ Zelensky to help free father from Russian captivity.

⚡️ Council of Europe raises concerns https://kyivindependent.com/council-of-europe-raises-concerns-about-russias-national-minorities/ about Russia's national minorities.

️SBU charges bishop https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-charges-bishop-of-kremlin-linked-church-with-assisting-russian-occupation-authorities/ of Kremlin-linked church with assisting Russian occupation authorities.

⚡️Media: 11 Iranian migrants arrested https://kyivindependent.com/media-11-iranian-migrants-arrested-while-trying-to-enter-finland-from-russia/ while trying to enter Finland from Russia.

Dominic Culverwell https://kyivindependent.com/why-ukrainian-businesses-need-foreign-investment-asap/ Ukrainian businesses need foreign investment ASAP
“Over six million Ukrainians are living abroad, many of them educated specialists who are planting roots in their host countries the longer the war wages,” writes Kyiv Independent reporter Dominic Culverwell in his recent op-ed.

⚡️Ukraine downs Kinzhal hypersonic missiles directed at Kyiv.

⚡️ Foreign Ministry: 4 Ukrainians https://kyivindependent.com/foreign-ministry-4-ukrainians-among-passangers-on-un-helicopter-captured-by-somali-militants/ on UN helicopter captured by Somali militants. [poor bastards]

Ragnar Gudmundsson

WAR IN #UKRAINE - JAN 13, 2024
■ Combat engagements on the rise but settlements under artillery fire fortunately below 7-day average
■ Strikes on both sides above 7-day average, especially air attacks
■ Casualties down but equipment losses up, including 4 air defence systems

Budanov's assessment:

Contrary to popular belief, Moscow is not experiencing a strong army but a weak economy, according to Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, in an interview with Le Monde.

Key Points:

▫️ Since the summer of 2023, there has been an increase in the quantity of Russian-made ammunition, but there is a noticeable decline in their quality. Russian missiles exhibit several shortcomings, often missing their targets.

▫️ Sanctions against Russia are having an impact, but they are deemed insufficient. Budanov emphasizes that restrictions need to extend to critical sectors of the economy, such as energy, metallurgy, and the financial system. Despite current sanctions, Russia's economy remains resilient.

▫️ Both Ukraine and Russia face challenges in conducting offensive operations due to the widespread use of UAVs and the density of minefields, unprecedented since World War II.

▫️ Electronic warfare proves effective against drones, while addressing the mine issue requires specialized equipment. Additional projectiles and artillery systems, including outdated ones no longer in use, are deemed essential to bolster Ukraine's defense capabilities.

▫️ Although there is a notable shortage of soldiers in Ukraine, it is considered significant but not alarming.

▫️ Those abroad who believe they are tired of Ukraine may need to reconsider when Moscow turns its focus to their territories upon occupation. Captured Russian soldiers reveal their mission is to wage war against NATO, with Ukraine being just the initial stage.

▫️ Ukraine has control over the northern part of the Black Sea, including gas production platforms. Despite regular attacks from the Russian Armed Forces, sea export corridors are operational.

▫️ Responding to Russian attacks, the Russians are compelled to relocate their fleet to the southeast and attempt to establish a naval base in Ochamchir in occupied Abkhazia.