Ukraine Invasion: Part 46

[MagicFox]

With thanks to all keeping these threads going 🇺🇦

**
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Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️US official warns https://kyivindependent.com/white-house-official-reportedly-warns-of-dire-situation-on-ukraine-aid/ of ‘dire’ situation with Ukraine aid.
Shalanda Young, the director of the U.S. Office of Management and Budget, warned on Jan. 5 about the rapidly diminishing time that Congress has to replenish U.S. aid for Ukraine, the Associated Press reported.

⚡️EU Council President to step https://kyivindependent.com/eu-council-president-to-step-down-potentially-opening-position-to-orban/ down, potentially opening position to Orban.
European Council President Charles Michel will run as a candidate for the European election in 2024, possibly triggering a crisis to fill a top diplomatic position, Belgian media reported on Jan. 6. [I don't believe for a moment that Órban will be President]

⚡️NYT: US faces missile supply shortage https://kyivindependent.com/nyt-officials-warn-u-s-faces-missile-supply-shortage-for-ukraines-patriot-air-defense-systems/ for Ukraine's Patriot air defense systems.
White House and Pentagon officials have warned that the U.S. would soon be unable to keep Ukraine’s Patriot air defense system batteries supplied with intercept

⚡️Media: Denmark to delay https://kyivindependent.com/denmark-reportedly-to-delay-f-16-jets-delivery-to-ukraine/ F-16 aircraft delivery to Ukraine. Denmark will deliver them sometime during the second quarter, the ministry said, according to the Danish newspaper Berlingske.

Polish farmers have agreed to suspend their border blockade at the Shehyni-Medyka crossing after reaching an agreement with government representatives, the Polish Agriculture Ministry announced on Jan. 6. kyivindependent.com/farmers-polish-government-reach-agreement/

⚡️Military intelligence: Satellite images confirm https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-satellite-images-confirm-strike/ strike on ammunition warehouses in Crimea.

⚡️Governor: Russian missile https://kyivindependent.com/governor-russian-attack-on-pokrovsk/* strike on Donetsk Oblast kills 11, including 5 kids.*

Three members of Belarusian rock band Nizkiz, whose song "Pravily" became known as a protest anthem during the 2020 pro-democracy demonstrations, were detained in Belarus, independent Russian media outlet Meduza reported on Jan. 6. https://kyivindependent.com/belarusian-rock-band-members-detained/

⚡️Belgorod cancels https://kyivindependent.com/belgorod-cancels-evening-christmas-services/ evening Orthodox Christmas services after attack.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦

⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - JAN 7, 2024
■ Most 🇺🇦 air strikes in >10 days
■ Big 🇷🇺 losses reported; both casualties & equipment
■ Special equipment stays at record level
■ Oryx: 58 🇷🇺 17 🇺🇦 (41:17 w/corrections)
■ KIU: +40 officers, 3.3 per day in last 4 weeks

If it's true that Charles Michel is going to step down, this is going to be a turning point.

It's also excellent news that the Polish farmers are suspending their blockade at one crossing.

ON the other hand the news about the F-16s ... :s

ON the other hand the news about the F-16s ... :s

I think it's unfortunate in a way, and perhaps not particularly helpful, that the F-16 has become so totemic..it's a complicated project, they'll arrive when they arrive, the Danes aren't the only source, and unfortunately when they do arrive they won't be an instant game changer, but they will help.

I'm frankly more worried (but not surprised) that there are continued reference/hints at shortages of Surface to Air Missile stocks...that in the short term is potentially a much more significant problem.

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Crimean media reports about the destruction of the tunnels of the command post of the occupiers in Sevastopol, more than 15 soldiers were killed.
The missile hit a buried checkpoint, the extent of the damage calls into question the possibility of recovery.

The head of the joint coordination press center of the Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine, Natalya Humenyuk, reported that following the destruction of the Command Post in Sevastopol, occupiers are undertaking urgent unit reformatting.

It seems that Ukraine will get a new European transport corridor.
Romanian media reports that around 3,000 workers and hundreds of vehicles are working 24/7 to continue the construction of the highway from Bucharest to the Ukrainian border.
This highway can provide access to Romanian ports and will also create an alternative route to European countries bypassing Poland, Hungary and Slovakia.

President Zelenskyy has proposed utilizing around 300 billion dollars of frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine. He emphasized that this action would significantly impact Russian elites and leadership, who show little regard for human lives.

Russian prisoners going for exchange are given cards with contact information that will allow them to surrender again if they are sent to the front again.
The motivation for being captured again, besides, of course, saving one’s life, is considered to be that the former prisoner of war knows about the conditions of being in Ukrainian captivity. Which are not comparable to living conditions in Russia.
The head of the press service of the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War, Petro Yatsenko, spoke about this in an interview with https://online.ua

The ambassador of Great Britain bathed in the Dnipro River along with the people of Kyiv on the Epiphany holiday
After diving into the river, diplomat Martin Harris congratulated Ukrainians on the holiday. https://t.me/United24media/17202

@notimagain it seems certain there really is a shortage ... I wonder what the future will hold now.

From UNITED 24 Media, reposting the whole of one post summarising the very broad situtation.

The Wall Street Journal's experts compared the vulnerabilities of Ukraine and the Russian Federation, highlighting differing strengths and challenges for each.

Russia's military budget for the upcoming year is at its highest level since Soviet times, significantly increasing by more than two-thirds compared to the previous year. Despite this, Moscow's economic focus on military endeavors has impacted civilian production negatively. The Russian Federation's ability to withstand sanctions was partly due to oil exports to China and India, along with the use of a covert tanker fleet for transportation and finding alternative sources for components previously obtained from the West.

However, Russia faces economic problems such as rising inflation and a diminishing labor force due to low birth rates and men leaving for military service or abroad, affecting its long-term prospects.

In contrast, the Ukrainian military-industrial complex is inferior to the capabilities of the Russian military machine. Additionally, Ukraine grapples with a shortage of manpower, especially against the backdrop of Russia's superiority in human resources.

The article notes Ukraine's more precarious short-term position due to decreasing Western aid and concerns about potential shifts in the US stance towards Ukraine after the 2024 presidential elections.

While Western support for Ukraine remains substantial, there are signs of waning enthusiasm. Concurrently, Putin is preparing for potential re-election, stifling anti-war voices.

According to Ukrainian polls, there's continued opposition to territorial concessions and sustained high trust in the military. However, there has been a slight decrease in trust toward President Zelenskyy, as per the experts' analysis.

Live Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇪🇺 The President of the European Council, Charles Michel, may resign, and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban may temporarily take https://www.politico.eu/article/charles-michel-to-run-for-eu-election-2024-top-jobs-viktor-orban/ his place
This will happen if Michel is elected to the European Parliament, where he plans to run, and EU leaders do not quickly agree on a successor. In this case, Orban will lead the European Council for six months, as his country will take over the rotating presidency in July (when the European Parliament elections will be held). [More details ... Oh ....... Dear ... ]

On January 6, Ukrainian military intelligence operators attacked Russian air defense positions in the Belgorod region.
Two Russian Pantsir S1 missile systems were disabled.

🤡Scott Ritter has turned up in Chechnya and spoken in broken Russian to thousands of Kadyrov’s fighters about his efforts to strengthen the "friendship between Chechnya and America"

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-7-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin continued to court Russian servicemen and their families ahead of the March 2024 presidential election during a meeting with family members of deceased Russian servicemen on January 6.
• Head of the Kremlin-controlled Russian Orthodox Church Patriarch Kirill of Moscow stated that Russia cannot reject Russian citizens who “understand they made a mistake” by fleeing Russia after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and now want to return home.
• Two Russian government officials defended migrants’ continued presence in Russia amid ongoing migrant crackdowns, generating heavy milblogger criticism and indicating that the Russian government likely still lacks a unified policy toward migrants in Russia.
• Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of January 6 to 7.
• Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat refuted media reports that the Danish Ministry of Defense (MoD) is delaying its first delivery of six F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine for up to six months.
• Russian forces made confirmed advances west and southwest of Donetsk City amid continued positional engagements along the front.
• Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated on January 7 that Russia has pushed back the deadline for the establishment of the new Moscow and Leningrad Military Districts (MMD and LMD) for at least the second time due to weapons and personnel shortages and bureaucratic issues.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on January 4 that will allow Russia to forcibly grant citizenship to deported Ukrainian children.

Note: Russia reportedly faced a domestic labor shortage of about 4.8 million people in 2023, likely including both skilled and unskilled labor.

Titov’s statement attempting to dispel fears of migrants’ involvement in the Russian economy is likely part of an effort to build Russian public support for continued reliance on migrant labor to offset domestic labor shortages induced by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Bild: Unidentified drones repeatedly spotted over German military bases where Ukrainians train.
German lawmaker Marcus Faber said that he suspects Russia is behind the drone incursions but has no concrete evidence to support the claim because no drones have been intercepted. https://kyivindependent.com/bild-unidentified-drones-repeatedly-spotted-over-german-military-bases-where-ukrainians-train/

The U.K. is investing 300 million pounds ($381 million) into the production of high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) as a part of a larger bid to improve the country's self-sustainable energy resources and cut dependence on Russia. https://kyivindependent.com/uk-invests-300-million-pounds-in-nuclear-fuel-eroding-russias-dominance-of-sector/

⚡️Japan pledges $37 million for anti-drone equipment for Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/japan-pledges-37-million-for-anti-drone-equipment-for-ukraine/

⚡️Air defenses intercepted kyivindependent.com/air-defenses-intercepted-nearly-half-of-russias-kinzhal-hypersonic-missiles/ over half of Russia's Kinzhal hypersonic missiles.

⚡️Ex-German president calls https://kyivindependent.com/ex-german-president-calls-for-germany-to-deliver-taurus-missiles/ for Germany to deliver Taurus missiles to Ukraine.

Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said the proposed EU army could be involved in peacekeeping and preventing conflict. When asked if the EU was ready to go to war, Tajani said the focus should rather be on "peacekeeping, monitoring, deterrence." https://kyivindependent.com/italian-foreign-minister-eu-should-have-common-army/

⚡️US House Speaker announces 2024 spending deal to avert government shutdown. https://kyivindependent.com/us-house-speaker-announces-2024-spending-deal-to-avert-government-shutdown/

⚡️Russian media: 16-year-old Russian arrested for allegedly torching Su-34 jet at Chelyabinsk airbase. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-media-16-year-old-russian-arrested-for-allegedly-torching-su-34-jet-at-chelyabinsk-airbase/

⚡️ Ukrainian poet Maksym Kryvtsov killed on front line. https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-poet-maksym-kryvtsov-killed-on-front-line/ Kryvtsov was among the participants of the EuroMaidan Revolution — one of the most crucial events in modern Ukraine’s history that ended the ruling of pro-Kremlin President Viktor Yanukovych — in 2013-2014.

It's strange and grim when you can say that the death of 440 people is a bad day because it's too low.

Ragnar Gudmundsson
WAR IN #UKRAINE - JAN 8, 2024
■ Fewer combat engagements & strikes on both sides, unchanged number of settlements under artillery fire
■ Modest casualties & equipment losses reported, tanks & MLRS above 7-day average
■ Freezing temperatures in Donbass, Russian Christmas yesterday (explains partly lower activity)

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa in Kyiv.

The foreign ministers of Canada and Italy discussed further support for Ukraine in curbing Russian aggression.

The EU should create its own armed forces that will prevent wars and maintain peace, — Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Italy Antonio Tajani
The issue of creating an EU army has been discussed for several years. French President Macron spoke about this in 2018. Shortly after Russia launched a war against Ukraine, European diplomacy chief Borrell said the union needed European armed forces to ensure security.
The main obstacle is that it implies greater centralization of the EU, and also partly comes into conflict with NATO. [mind you if Trump comes into power and disassembles NATO, this won't be an issue]

According to the Financial Times, Russia's extensive capabilities in using drones and electronic warfare (EW) systems pose a significant challenge for Ukraine's Armed Forces, causing increasing problems on the battlefield.

Russia's economy's shift towards military priorities, long-term planning for the invasion of Ukraine, and robust production abilities to mass-produce inexpensive drones, coupled with effective EW systems, have created hurdles for Ukraine's Defense Forces. Western analysts highlighted how these measures significantly impeded the Ukrainian Armed Forces during the recent counteroffensive.

Russian EW systems have proven effective in disrupting the trajectory of limited high-precision munitions supplied to Ukraine from the West. Moreover, through the use of inexpensive UAVs, the enemy can identify the location of Ukrainian air defense, compelling the Defense Forces to expend costly missiles to counter them. Consequently, Ukraine faces shortages in both high-precision munitions and EW protection.

The absence of EW protection leaves Ukrainian troops vulnerable to artillery strikes, targeted drone attacks, and kamikaze drone assaults.

One Ukrainian soldier lamented the absence of EW protection for his unit during intense shelling on the eastern front, expressing how the Russian drones relentlessly targeted them, causing significant casualties.

Despite efforts to increase EW system production, Ukraine's volume remains notably inferior to that of the Russian Federation. A senior researcher at the Royal Institute of Combined Armed Forces, Jack Watling, highlighted the Russians' capability to deploy EW systems extensively across the front lines, even down to platoon levels in some instances, citing systems like the Polyus-21 as an example.

If Putin does not lose in Ukraine, he will attack Moldova and the Baltic states, — former head of the CIA David Petraeus
He noted that "many billions" are needed to help Ukraine, but he considers such expenses absolutely necessary, as they will prevent Putin's victory and, inevitably, in this case, the transfer of the war to Europe.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Russian missile attack. The main thing as of this morning:
📍The enemy fired cruise and ballistic missiles at Zaporizhzhia. There are hits in residential areas - in open territory and near houses. Two wounded are reported.
📍In Kharkiv, the enemy hit industrial facilities. A fire broke out, one person was injured.
📍A private house was hit in the town of Zmiiv, Kharkiv region. Two people were wounded. Two more people are being searched for under the rubble.
📍In Kryvyi Rih, 15 thousand people are without electricity. Some public transport is out of service.
📍8 Shahed kamikaze drones were shot down in Odesa and Mykolaiv regions.

🇨🇳US intelligence has revealed the extent of corruption in China's army, Bloomberg writes https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-06/us-intelligence-shows-flawed-china-missiles-led-xi-jinping-to-purge-military?srnd=asia-politics This has undermined Xi Jinping's efforts to modernize the armed forces and called into question China's ability to wage war. Against this backdrop, Xi Jinping is purging the army.
One of the manifestations of corruption is missiles filled with water instead of fuel and large fields of missile silos that are unable to effectively launch missiles due to faulty caps.
▫️China is preparing for war. In his New Year's address, Xi Jinping said that China's "reunification" with Taiwan is inevitable, and promised US President Joe Biden to annex the island, allegedly peacefully. US intelligence believes that Xi has ordered the military to be prepared for a possible military takeover of Taiwan by 2027.

Vladyslav, a 23-year-old pilot of a MiG-29 combat aircraft, "Blue Helmet", was killed while defending the skies of Ukraine

Why Viktor Orbán hates Ukraine

Apologies just getting to this now. It's not that Orban will become the European Council President but rather that once Charles Michel leaves his post in July, which as I understand it he needs to in order to stand to be an MEP, the role of chairing European Council meetings will be undertaken by Orban due to the rotating presidency currently being held by Hungary. This is unfortunate as key decisions, such as the next Commission President will be made during this time.

There are however already rumours swirling in Brussels that a successor to Charles Michel may be appointed in time to avoid a period of vacancy in the post. Equally if an interim president is needed I believe there is a mechanism for the EU 27 to vote on a majority basis for who that should be.

There are also some rumours that Michel is being considered by the more liberal parties in the European Parliament as a potential contender for the top job, given they're likely to hold the key after the next election (if as expected the far right are likely to do well and make any sort of coalition talks between the centre right and centre left increasingly difficult).

So all in quite complicated and likely to lead to a lot of the general EU wrangling that takes place, I would suspect that Orban isn't exactly counting his chickens yet.

Thank you @Igotjelly So not as grim as it might be.

I imagine that a lot of EU leaders will not want Órban at the helm.

I feel that quite a few of them don't actually want him in the EU at all, let alone at the helm.

It’s one of those catch 22s. Keep your enemies close as they say…

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-8-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian officials highlighted the need for more air defense systems after another large series of Russian missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of January 7 to 8.
• Western provisions of air defense systems and missiles remain crucial for Ukraine as Russian forces attempt to adapt to current Ukrainian air defense capabilities and as Ukraine develops its defense industrial base (DIB).
• Ukrainian forces are adapting to battlefield difficulties from equipment shortages but are struggling to completely compensate for artillery ammunition shortages and insufficient electronic warfare (EW) capabilities.
• Russian authorities are reportedly illegally deporting Ukrainian civilians to Russia and holding them in penal colonies and pre-trial detention centers without charges, investigations, trials, access to lawyers, or designated release dates.
• A Russian insider source claimed that Russian officials dismissed First Deputy Head of the Main Directorate of the Russian General Staff (GRU), Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseyev, who was reportedly in charge of the Russian “Volunteer Corps” that was intended to replace the Wagner Group.
• ISW cannot confirm either Alekseyev’s dismissal in fall 2023 or the reports of shell shortages disproportionately affecting the Russian “Volunteer Corps.”
• Russian authorities continue efforts to consolidate control over the Russian information space ahead of the March presidential elections.
• Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported on January 8 that recent polling shows decreased domestic support for Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine ahead of the March 2024 Russian presidential elections.
• Russian government and media officials recently have died, possibly under mysterious circumstances.
• A Russian state media outlet confirmed that the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) detained three officers of its Directorate “M” in connection with a high-profile bribery scheme.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Donetsk City and Verbove, and positional engagements continued along the entire line of contact.
• The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on January 8 that there are more than 450,000 Russian military personnel in Ukraine as of December 2023.
• Russia continues to forcibly deport children from occupied Ukraine under the guise of vacations.

Note:
The BBC’s Russian Service reported on January 8 that Russian authorities have detained thousands of Ukrainian civilians in penal colonies and pre-trial detention centers in Russia and occupied Ukraine for “opposing the ‘special military operation.’

The Ukrainian Ministry of Reintegration of Temporarily Occupied Territories stated that there were 4,337 Ukrainians in Russian captivity as of November 2023, including 763 civilians, but the BBC noted that these numbers rely on data from the Red Cross, which does not always have access to places where Russian authorities hold Ukrainian civilians.[18] Ukrainian Commissioner for Human Rights Dmitry Lubinets stated that about 25,000 Ukrainian civilians are missing and that Russian forces may have kidnapped a significant number of the missing individuals.,,,,The BBC’s Russian Service stated that Russian and Ukrainian human rights activists have identified more than 30 penal colonies and pre-trial detention centers in which Ukrainian civilians have been reportedly detained.[21]

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Military: Russia keeps 19,000 troops https://kyivindependent.com/military-russia-keeps-19-000-troops-on-ukraines-northern-border/ on Ukraine's northern border near Sumy and Chernihiv oblasts, the spokesperson of Ukraine's northern forces, Yurii Povkh, said on Jan. 8.

⚡️ Minister: Nearly 15 million tons of cargo https://kyivindependent.com/minister-15-million-tons-of-cargo-shipped-via-temporary-black-sea-corridor/ exported via temporary Black Sea corridor in last 5 months.

⚡️ Military intelligence claims capture https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-claims-capture-of-russian-drone-producers-classified-data/ of Russian drone producer's classified data.
Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) seized 100 gigabytes (GB) of classified data worth around $1.5 billion from the Russian company Special Technology Center, the HUR said on Jan. 8.

⚡️Media: European Commission sends letter of concern https://kyivindependent.com/media-european-commission-sends-letter-of-concern-to-poland-over-border-blockade/ to Poland over Ukrainian border blockade

The European Union's top justice official, Didier Reynders, is hoping to become the next head of the Council of Europe, the continent's leading human rights organization, Politico reported on Jan. 7, citing an unnamed Belgian official and a member of Reynders' political party. https://kyivindependent.com/politico-eu-justice-commissioner-eyes-top-job-at-council-of-europe/

⚡️Scholz criticizes https://kyivindependent.com/scholz-criticizes-eu-for-providing-insufficient-aid-to-ukraine/ EU for providing insufficient military aid to Ukraine.
Germany's military support for Ukraine is not enough to make up for the deficit from other EU countries, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said at a press conference in Berlin on Jan. 8.

⚡️Reuters: White House gathers https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-white-house-gathers-industry-leaders-to-discuss-defense-tech-for-ukraine/ industry leaders to discuss defense tech for Ukraine.

⚡️Sweden to send https://kyivindependent.com/sweden-to-send-troops-to-latvia/ troops to Latvia.
Though Sweden's accession to NATO is not yet complete, the government has signaled it is ready to contribute to NATO deterrence and the defense of Baltic countries.

A former deputy defense minister and two other ex-defense officials were charged with embezzling almost Hr 1 billion ($25 million) through the purchase of low-quality bulletproof vests, the Prosecutor General's Office reported on Jan. 8. https://kyivindependent.com/defense-ex-officials-charged-in-body-armor-procurement-corruption-case/

⚡️ Parliamentary committee sees corruption risks https://kyivindependent.com/parliamentary-committee-sees-corruption-risks-in-new-mobilization-bill/ in new mobilization bill.
Representatives of the Defense Ministry and the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces, who were present at the meeting, agreed to remove the shortcomings, Radina said.

⚡️MP: Ukraine's latest draft law doesn't include provisions for female conscription https://kyivindependent.com/mp-ukraines-latest-draft-law-doesnt-include-provisions-for-female-conscription/

Internal audits and investigations at Ukraine's Defense Ministry over the past four months have uncovered more than Hr 10 billion ($260 million) in violations committed previously, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov announced on Jan. 8. https://kyivindependent.com/umerov-more-than-hr-10-billion-in-defense-ministry-violations-discovered-in-past-4-months/

⚡️ Governor: Children to be evacuated https://kyivindependent.com/governor-children-to-be-evacuated-from-russias-belgorod-oblast/ from Russia's Belgorod Oblast.

⚡️Media: https://kyivindependent.com/media-explosions-reported-on-railway-by-oil-depot-in-russias-sverdlovsk-oblast/ Explosions were reported on Jan. 8 at a railway track by an oil depot on the outskirts of the Russian city of Nizhny Tagil in the Urals, according to Russian media and Telegram channels.

Wide swathes of Ukraine were without power on Jan. 8 due to poor weather conditions and Russian attacks on energy infrastructure, Ukraine's Energy Ministry said. Twelve oblasts throughout Ukraine were affected, causing at least 560 settlements to lose power. https://kyivindependent.com/energy-ministry-bad-weather-russian-cause-widespread-power-outages/

⚡️Ukraine, allies initiate https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-allies-initiate-proceedings-against-iran-over-airplane-downing/ proceedings against Iran over airplane downing.
Ukraine, Sweden, Canada, and the U.K. issued a joint statement on Jan. 8 announcing the initiation of dispute settlement proceedings with the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) over Iran's shooting down of Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 in 2020.
Flight 752 was a civilian passenger flight from Tehran to Kyiv that was hit by two missiles shortly after takeoff, with all 176 people on board being killed.

⚡️ Belarusian detained in Poland charged with espionage. https://kyivindependent.com/poland-detains-belarusian-suspected-of-espionage/ Over several months, the woman allegedly passed information on the Belarusian diaspora in Poland to Belarus' secret police (KGB).

The Polish government has allegedly been hindering the investigation into explosions at the Nord Stream gas pipelines, the Wall Street Journal reported on Jan. 8, citing investigators who are working on the case. https://kyivindependent.com/wsj-poland-hindering-investigation-into-nord-stream-explosion/

⚡️Minister: Over 5,000 tons of carbon dioxide released into air https://kyivindependent.com/minister-over-5-000-tons-of-carbon-dioxide-released-into-air-due-to-russias-recent-attacks-against-ukraine/ due to Russia's recent attacks against Ukraine.

The total amount of frozen Russian assets can cover more than 80% of Ukraine's recovery demand, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said in an interview with the Spanish newspaper El Pais published on Jan.8. https://kyivindependent.com/kuleba-frozen-russian-assets-can-cover-80-of-ukraines-reconstruction-needs/

Ragnar Gudmundsson

WAR IN #UKRAINE - JAN 9, 2024
■ Combat engagements up but fewer strikes on both sides, increased number of settlements under artillery fire
■ Casualties above 7-day average while landbased equipment losses were relatively few
■ 18 of 55 missiles intercepted (33%), 7-day missile losses at record level
■ Freezing temperatures on all fronts

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson announced Sweden’s intention to send a battalion to Latvia in support of NATO’s eastern borders as Sweden gears up to join NATO.
According to the Swedish publication Dagens Nyheter, the contingent will include approximately 800 troops, Patgb 360 armored personnel carriers, Strf 90 BMPs, and potentially Strv 122 tanks, similar to the German Leopard 2.

🇸🇪 The Commander-in-Chief of Sweden's Armed Forces, Mikael Büden, and the Minister of Civil Defense, Karl-Oskar Bulin, urged citizens to be prepared for war, as reported by The Local.
Bulin emphasized that peace cannot be taken for granted, even in Sweden, and suggesting otherwise has become increasingly perilous.

🇪🇪Estonia will provide military support to Ukraine in the amount of 0.25% of GDP over the next four years, — Estonian Prime Minister.
If each country contributes 0.25% of its GDP, Ukraine will be able to win the war against Russia.

Stop Russian Terror: Several thousand people protested in Warsaw to draw attention towards providing aid to Ukraine.
On Monday, about 3,000 people gathered outside the European Commission office.
The main demands include the immediate provision of more weapons to Ukraine to protect civilians, the transfer of frozen Russian assets in Western countries to Ukraine, isolation of Russia in the international arena.
Well-known Polish public figures and politicians came to the rally to support Ukraine.

❗️Russian missiles killed 33 people in Kyiv on December 29, — Kyiv City Military Administration.

🇪🇸Spain donates to Ukraine armored medical vehicles intended for providing medical assistance and evacuation of patients.

🇺🇦 The USA launched a rocket to the moon with the Ukrainian flag on board.

It’s really cold outdoors, but we are fighting!

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights Thread

Hungary has put forward a new demand to lift its veto on €50 billion for Ukraine.
Politico cites sources as saying that Hungary will lift its veto if the European Council approves a vote to allocate funds on an annual basis. Representatives of the country have already sent a proposal to the EU Council, which is currently chaired by Belgium.
The newspaper writes (https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/brussels-playbook/scholz-calls-on-eu-countries-to-arm-ukraine/) that this could give Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban the opportunity to block aid to Ukraine every year, wresting various concessions for Hungary.
The issue of funding for Ukraine will be on the agenda of a meeting of EU ambassadors scheduled for January 10.

Europe needs to create a unified arms industry, — Zelensky
According to him, only this can “secure Europe militarily from Russia.”

Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba says that in no format of communication with its Western allies is Ukraine being pushed to start negotiations with Russia and freeze the war.

The Air Defense Forces destroyed 18 cruise missiles and 8 Shaheds
The attack was aimed at critical and civilian infrastructure, industrial and military facilities, said Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyi.
In total, the enemy launched 59 air targets, including:
▫️8 Shaheds;
▫️7 anti-aircraft guided missiles S-300/S-400;
▫️4 Kinzhal aerial ballistic missiles
▫️24 cruise missiles Kh-101/Kh-555/Kh-55;
▫️8 cruise missiles Kh-22;
▫️6 Iskander-M ballistic missiles;
▫️2 Kh-31P guided missiles

The footage shows a Russian missile striking a hospital in Pokrovsk (Donetsk oblast) while a surgery was underway https://t.me/liveukraine_media/17058

As of 12:00 a.m., four people were killed and 38 others, including four children, were wounded in a massive morning missile attack.

Serbian mercenary in the Russian army, Dejan Berić, complains https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1744468684033179807?s=46&t=hmPdh3epcvbnoUN2TQsSDw that Russians from the 119th Regiment treated other Serbs like cattle, called them gypsies, and beat a number of them
The command of the brigade sent the mercenaries into assaults without ammo and offered to collect some during the battle.

That Ukraine flag on the rocket ❤️

A bit off topic but I know it was discussed previously and found it interesting. The issue of number plates between Serbia and Kosovo has been peacefully resolved, and somewhat under the radar.

Kosovo Allows Uncovered Serbian License Plates In Move To Improve Relations (rferl.org)

That's quietly brilliant news. That was something that could have turned into flashpoint for worse.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-9-2024

Key Takeaways:

• A Ukrainian public opinion survey on Ukrainian attitudes towards the Ukrainian government and military indicates that Ukrainian society overwhelmingly supports Ukraine’s military and its leadership while experiencing tensions typical in a society fighting an existential defensive war.
• A new independent poll from the University of Chicago's National Opinion Research Center (NORC) found that Russian President Vladimir Putin maintains strong domestic support for his regime and his war in Ukraine, despite relatively poor economic conditions and living standards in Russia.
• Russian ultranationalist vitriolic responses to gender integration in the Ukrainian military highlight Russia's ongoing shift towards a cultural-ideological worldview that seeks to restore rigid and traditional gender roles and exposes gaps between Russia and Ukraine's respective abilities to mobilize their own societies.
• Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat reported that Ukraine has a shortage of anti-aircraft guided missiles after several recent large Russian missile and drone strikes against Ukraine.
• Russian sources continue to complain about persistent command and communication problems that degrade Russian combat capability in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast.
• Russian sources are reviving longstanding calls for a large-scale Russian offensive operation in Kharkiv Oblast to create a “buffer zone” with Belgorod Oblast despite the Russian military’s likely inability to conduct an operation to seize significant territory in Kharkiv Oblast in the near term.
• Recent Kremlin and Russian media rhetoric aimed at threatening Moldova likely continues to embolden pro-Russian separatist leaders in Moldova to attempt to sow political instability and division in Moldova.
• Bloomberg reported that officials from Ukraine, the Group of Seven (G7) countries, India, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and other unspecified countries held a meeting in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on December 16 to build support for Ukrainian conditions to negotiate with Russia.
• Russian forces made confirmed advances southwest of Donetsk City, and positional engagements continued along the entire frontline.
• The Russian military is reportedly abusing Serbian nationals whom Russian officials have recruited to serve in Russian formations in Ukraine.
• Russian occupation officials continue the systematic oppression of residents of occupied Crimea using law enforcement and administrative means.

Yesterday's and todays Def Update

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Belgian PM: EU to scale up https://kyivindependent.com/belgian-pm-eu-to-scale-up-its-support-to-ukraine/ its support to Ukraine.
The European Union "will further scale up its support to Ukraine," Belgian Prime Minister Alexander de Croo said on X on Jan. 9, after Belgium started its term leading the European Council.

⚡️ Media: Zelensky expected to visit Switzerland https://kyivindependent.com/media-zelensky-to-visit-switzerland-next-week/ next week. The president is expected to travel mainly to Davos to attend the World Economic Forum (WEF), scheduled for Jan. 15-19, but also to visit Bern to meet some or all members of the Swiss government, the newspaper said.

⚡️Bloomberg: Secret peace talks involving Ukraine, G7, neutral countries failed to produce results.
The talks failed to produce meaningful results, but are representative of the efforts by Ukraine and its allies to draw countries outside of the West into backing Ukraine's peace formula. https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-secret-peace-talks-involving-ukraine-g7-neutral-countries-failed-to-produce-results/

⚡️UN: 40% of Ukraine's population will need https://kyivindependent.com/un-humanitarian-aid-in-2024/ humanitarian aid in 2024.

Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi, and Chief of the General Staff Serhii Shaptala visited Ukrainian army positions near Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-drones-reportedly-hit-oil-depot-energy-provider-in-russias-oryol-region/

⚡️Zelensky arrives in Vilniushttps://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-arrives-in-vilnius-as-part-of-visit-to-baltics/ as part of visit to Baltics.

⚡️ISW: Russian media attempting to sow https://kyivindependent.com/isw-russian-media-attempting-to-sow-political-instability-in-moldova/ political instability in Moldova.

⚡️Media: Ukrainian hackers hit Russian internet provider, https://kyivindependent.com/media-ukrainian-hackers-hit-russian-internet-provider-claim-they-are-preparing-revenge-for-kyivstar/ claim they are preparing 'revenge for Kyivstar.' The Ukrainian Blackjack hacker group, possibly linked to the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), carried out a cyber attack against the Moscow Internet provider M9 Telecom, Ukrinform reported on Jan. 9, citing an undisclosed source in law enforcement.

⚡️Drones reportedly hit oil depot https://kyivindependent.com/drones-reportedly-hit-oil-depot-energy-facility-in-russias-oryol-region/ energy provider in Russia’s Oryol region.
Several drones struck "facilities of a fuel and energy complex" in Russia’s Oryol region on the afternoon of Jan. 9, the regional governor, Andrey Klychkov, claimed on Telegram.

Media: A year later, Canada's promised air defense system not yet deliveredhttps://kyivindependent.com/media-1-year-later-canadas-promised-nasams-air-defense-system-has-not-been-delivered/ to Ukraine.

⚡️ DTEK: Power restored https://kyivindependent.com/dtek-power-restored-to-218-000-people-in-odesa-dnipropetrovsk-oblasts/ to 218,000 people in Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.

The municipality of Modena revoked the permission for an event on the "rebirth" of Mariupol after Russia's brutal siege, which was to be held in a civic hall on Jan. 20, Ukraine's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Oleh Nikolenko reported on Jan. 9. https://kyivindependent.com/italian-city-revokes-permission-for-russian-event-mariupol/

⚡️Energy Ministry: Russian forces fired on repair workers twice over past 2 days https://kyivindependent.com/energy-ministry-russian-forces-fired-on-repair-workers-twice-over-past-2-days/

Inside occupied Ukraine’s most effective resistance movements https://kyivindependent.com/image-draft-there-is-no-doubt-in-victory-inside-occupied-ukraines-most-effective-resistance-movements/
The Kyiv Independent spoke to three people involved in coordinating resistance operations in Ukraine’s occupied territories: representatives of Yellow Ribbon and Atesh, and a Ukrainian special forces soldier skilled in managing a network of informants.

Russian consulates in some countries considered by the Kremlin to be "unfriendly" may not open voting stations in the upcoming Russian elections, the Russian state-controlled newspaper Vedomosti reported on Jan. 9, citing an unnamed Russian diplomat. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-media-russia-will-not-open-voting-stations-in-some-unfriendly-countries/

Robert Woodland Romanov, a U.S. citizen, was arrested in Moscow on charges of attempted drug smuggling and remanded to two months of pre-trial detention, the Russian news outlet Interfax reported on Jan. 9, citing Moscow's Ostankino court. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-media-u-s-citizen-arrested-on-drug-trafficking-charges/

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦

⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - JAN 10, 2024
■ Engagements & 🇺🇦 strikes up, settlements under artillery fire stay above 7-day average
■ Casualties above average while landbased equipment losses stay below
■ Oryx: 32 🇷🇺 13 🇺🇦 added to records, 30-day ratio is now 2.8x

UNITED 24 Media Telegram Highlights

A historic petition has been launched, potentially leading to the deprivation of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's voting rights in the Council of the European Union. This move, different from previous actions regarding Hungary, is driven by a procedure outlined in Article 7 of the EU Treaty, initiated by Finnish MEP Petri Sarvamaa.
Article 7 allows for the suspension of certain rights, including voting rights in the Council, for a member state found in violation of the European Union's values, encompassing human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, and the rule of law.
MEPs have until Friday to sign the letter, following which it will be submitted to President Roberta Metsola. [ Time to get in touch with your MEP!]

🇸🇪Sweden to transfer 50 million Swedish kronor - approximately $5 million - to NATO assistance fund for Ukraine.

Lithuania has approved a €200 million aid package to Ukraine, said Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda

🇩🇪German company Flensburger Fahrzeugbaugesellschaft is building a facility for repairing military equipment in western Ukraine, said Bundestag member Marcus Faber.

"We are prepared to extend our support to Ukraine throughout 2024, 2025, and 2026. The combined GDP of our coalition exceeds Russia's by 25 times, enabling us to significantly bolster weapon production," stated David Cameron, the head of the Foreign Ministry of Great Britain. He also mentioned that Britain plans to unveil an aid package for Ukraine in 2024 soon.

President Zelenskyy engaged in a telephone conversation with Polish Foreign Minister Andrzej Duda, discussing matters concerning the border blockade, 'security guarantees,' and defense collaboration.

After a conversation with his counterpart Klaus Iohannis, President Zelenskyy announced Ukraine's initiation of negotiations on security guarantees with Romania.

More than 24.5% of the territory in the liberated Kherson region has been demined.
More than 800 pyrotechnics inspect the Kherson region every day, in comparison with 80 last March, said Oleksandr Prokudin, head of the Kherson Regional Military Administration. [not sure they actually mean pyrotechnics]

The World Bank's World Economic Outlook report forecasts global economic growth to reach 2.4% in 2024 and 2.7% in 2025. This projected growth marks the weakest start to a decade in the last 30 years.
Developing economies are expected to grow by only 3.9%, more than one percentage point below the average of the previous decade.
The report highlights that by the end of 2024, about one in four developing countries and approximately 40% of low-income countries will likely still have a population facing poverty compared to pre-2019 COVID pandemic levels.
Politico: Putin granted Russian citizenship to a Bosnian Serb accused of war crimes. Ratko Samac, a former Yugoslav People's Army officer, is wanted in Bosnia and Herzegovina on charges of war crimes related to the expulsion of non-Serb civilians from the town of Klyuch in 1992. At least 150 Bosnian civilians were then killed. Samac is also a suspect in a triple murder in Banja Luka in 1993.

The bullet-proof automated system for ShaBlya machine guns, which helps fighters to remotely destroy the enemy, has turned from a start-up into a permanent project contracted by the state, Deputy Prime Minister Fedorov said.

At night, the Russians attacked a children's health center in Kharkiv