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Ukraine Invasion: Part 46

996 replies

MagicFox · 25/11/2023 14:14

With thanks to all keeping these threads going 🇺🇦

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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OP posts:
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336
blueshoes · 04/01/2024 11:34

@DancesWithDucks , no probs

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-3-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • Russia and Ukraine conducted a prisoner of war (POW) exchange on January 3 in what was the largest POW exchange of the war to date and the first official POW exchange since August 2023.
  • Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal stated on January 3 that Ukraine plans to increase its defense industrial base (DIB) output six-fold in 2024.
  • Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba announced on January 3 that the NATO-Ukraine Council (NUC) will hold an emergency meeting in response to Russia’s recent mass air strikes against Ukraine.
  • NATO member states continue initiatives to support Ukrainian operations in the air domain.
  • Kremlin-affiliated mouthpieces may be setting information conditions to blame the West for a potential future conflict in the Arctic.
  • Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev characterized Russia as Kazakhstan’s “main partner and ally” in an interview published on January 3 despite recent efforts to distance Kazakhstan from Russia.
  • Russian forces made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and Donetsk City as positional engagements continued along the entire line of contact.
  • The Donetsk People’s Republic’s (DNR) “Vostok” Battalion stated on January 3 that the unit will continue to operate subordinated to Rosgvardia and will not be impacted by the Russian military’s reported dissolution of the “Kaskad” operational combat tactical formation of the DNR’s Internal Affairs Ministry (MVD).
  • Russian authorities continue efforts to integrate occupied Ukraine into Russia using infrastructure projects and social outreach programs.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 46
DancesWithDucks · 04/01/2024 11:34

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights from last 24 hours

According to the British Ministry of Defense, there's a shift in Russia's strategy regarding strikes in Ukraine. Currently, rather than targeting energy infrastructure, there's a focus on hitting Ukraine's defense industry.
The review suggests that those organizing Russian operations recognize the growing significance of robust defense industrial capabilities as they anticipate a prolonged conflict.

Zelenskyy believes that in 2024, Crimea and the related battle in the Black Sea will become the war’s centre of gravity.

Norway's Defense Minister, Bjørn Arild Gram, announced the decision to dispatch two F-16 fighter jets to Denmark for the purpose of training Ukrainian pilots in their operation.
Moreover, Norway has already deployed ten instructors to Denmark to assist in the training program for Ukrainian pilots.

❗️On January 2, Forbes estimated that Russia spent approximately $620 million on shelling Ukraine.

🌐The occupiers plan to provide Internet access only to the residents with Russian passports in the temporarily occupied territories.

Experts estimate that Russia earns between 3.7 and 4.6 million euros annually from the diamond trade.

During the first year of the full-scale war in Ukraine, Russia received $590 billion in export revenues, mainly from the sale of oil and gas, according to the Re: Russia project analysts, — head of the State Agency for Restoration and Infrastructure Development, Mustafa Nayyem.
“This is $160 billion more than the last decade's average. In the second year, revenues were even $60 billion higher than the average. The cost of a "Special Military Operation" is estimated at more than $100 billion per year. Happy New Year to all friends and partners", — in his own way, he assessed the assistance to Ukraine by its partners.

Russia has already killed 515 children in Ukraine. [this does not include the occupied territories, and the UN has said they believe the number of civilian dead to be massively higher]

At the Kyiv Animal Rescue Center, during today's attack, the lioness Yuna received a serious concussion and lost coordination. One of the fragments of the rocket fell 300 meters from its enclosure.
Until today, the animal had no health problems. It was being prepared for shipment to Europe—the documents should be ready soon.

A 14-year-old Ukrainian, Igor Samunenkov, has achieved the title of the youngest grandmaster in the world. Hailing from Kyiv, he began his professional chess journey at the age of 8.

Children from a football camp during the massive air attack today. They had to sleep in the hallway, following the safety rule of using two walls, which is crucial during air attacks.

January 2, 2024, during a Russian missile attack on Kyiv, Liudmyla Shevtsova was killed—doctor of biological sciences, professor, and for many years—head of the department of the Institute of Hydrobiology of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. In recent years—a lecturer at the "Kyiv-Mohyla Academy".

In Kherson they said goodbye to 11-year-old Glib Fediuk, who was killed by Russian terrorists on December 31 as a result of shelling

This year, the assembly of ISUZU D-Max pickups for the Armed Forces will begin in Ukraine, — the head of the Ataman enterprise.

DancesWithDucks · 04/01/2024 11:53

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇹🇷Turkey will not allow the Ukrainian minehunters Chernihiv (M310) and Cherkasy (M311), which were transferred to Ukraine by the UK, to enter the Black Sea.
The Center for Countering Disinformation under the Office of the President of Turkey recalls https://twitter.com/dmmiletisim/status/1742164208714707318 that the country has closed the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles to all warships of the warring parties in accordance with the Montreux Convention. [I hope they NEVER get the fighter planes they are hoping and blackmailing Sweden for]

Foreign Minister Kuleba announced progress in the confiscation of Russian assets in favor of Ukraine and expressed hope that a unified legal framework for this purpose will be approved in 2024

Foreign Minister Kuleba said that Ukraine has no "plan B" in case the West stops providing weapons:

The Ukrainian government's draft law on mobilization will not be submitted to the Verkhovna Rada in the form in which it was registered, said Yevheniya Kravchuk, deputy head of the Committee on Information Policy. According to her, a compromise version will be prepared.

It will take up to 5 years to clear the Black and Azov Seas of mines after active hostilities end, said Ukrainian Navy spokesman Pletenchuk.
"Mine clearance of sea routes of communication and trade routes will take 3-5 months, and the global demining operation will take 3-5 years," he said. [course, Turkiye refusing to let mine clearers in doesn't help]

HIMARS with two direct hits destroys the rare and newest artillery reconnaissance complex 1K148 "Yastreb-AV" of the Russian Armed Forces worth about $250 million.

In the Zaporizhzhia direction in the area of Verbove, the Armed Forces of Ukraine advanced, forcing the enemy to abandon some positions, — the General Staff reports

The last captured woman who served in the marines, Halyna Fedyshyn, also returned from captivity. During the defense of Mariupol, she took part in the fighting at the Ilyich Iron and Steel Works and Azovstal.

Chief of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine Kyrylo Budanov celebrates his 38th birthday today

Ukraine Invasion: Part 46
Ukraine Invasion: Part 46
DancesWithDucks · 04/01/2024 17:35

Rumours (not yet confirmed) of an attack on a major command post in Crimea.

MMBaranova · 04/01/2024 22:53

'Putin inks decree' x2.

Making it easier for those who have lived in Sevastopol or Crimea to get Russian citizenship.

And for foreign contract soldiers and their families (next in feed as I currently see it).

Putin inks decree on Russian citizenship for Ukrainians who left Crimea before March 2014 - Russian Politics & Diplomacy - TASS

https://tass.com/politics/1729265

MMBaranova · 04/01/2024 23:07

I've been doing one of my now occasional dips into Russian media / social media. This is how a Ru state sanctioned site reported today's Ukrainian attack. The site is one to bookmark to see how the other side sees things on the ground. Missile debris gets reported as being inspected and then take off to landfill etc.

Crimea repelled a massive missile attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. There's a response (crimearf.info)

'...those who posted a video of the air defense operation, which has already gone viral on Ukropublik, are already being identified by the authorities. This is a criminal offense'.

Crimea repelled a massive missile attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. There's a response

Crimean News - CrimeaPRESS reports:By information Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, on January 4, at about 17:20, an attempt by the Kyiv regime to carry out

https://crimearf.info/crimea-repelled-a-massive-missile-attack-by-the-ukrainian-armed-forces-there-s-a-response/

MMBaranova · 04/01/2024 23:29

Serbia.

There's plenty to follow in the protests over irregularities in the December Serbian elections, but various images about Serbian support for Russia are circulating. This one is from a basketball game where the banners are 'we are with you Belgorod'.

Belgrade (Београд - SRB) and Belgorod (Белгород - Ru) are both 'White City'.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 46
MMBaranova · 05/01/2024 00:02

And finally (because I can only go into the Russosphere for so long at a time), as a response to Medvedev calling the French Foreign Ministry (over Belgorod) 'Scum. Bastards. Assholes,' and more, there's a call for his Telegram posts to be blocked because of his foul language. Who wants this? One of the odder public figures in Russia (and Russia does do odd in ways that are very Russian) Ekaterina Mizulina.

Ekaterina Mizulina, head of the Safe Internet League, has appealed to Roskomnadzor with a demand to block the Telegram channel of Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev. The reason was the abundant use of foul language and calls for violence.

"An endless stream of profanity, threats, intimidation, and there are no age markings on this channel, it is read by minors. I appealed to Roskomnadzor, if the channel is not blocked, we will prepare an appeal to the Prosecutor General's Office,"

Mizulina is, among many other things, very high profile in social media and pro-censorship. This recent article explores her roles:

Mother Russia. Who is the face of Russian online censorship, scourge of Russian rappers and Gen-Z icon Yekaterina Mizulina? — Novaya Gazeta Europe

Her mother is a member of the Upper House and has gone from political party to political party. She's sanctioned by the UK Govt. and has broadly similar views to her daughter. Her Wikipedia article is extensive and... odd.

Yelena Mizulina - Wikipedia

Mother Russia. Who is the face of Russian online censorship, scourge of Russian rappers and Gen-Z icon Yekaterina Mizulina? — Novaya Gazeta Europe

Yekaterina Mizulina is best known to Russians for two reasons that initially seem at odds with each: her self-appointed role as the country’s chief internet censor and her own prominent presence on social media.

https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2023/12/20/mother-russia-en

L1ttledrummergirl · 05/01/2024 08:30

@MMBaranova thank you for these. It must be very difficult for you to explore the Russian side of the war which makes me more appreciative when you do. I wouldn't know where to start but do think it's important.

The Crimean article reads like the world war 2 black and white propaganda films, the tone is very much about the brave minnows fighting off the might of the cowardly allies.
It's certainly an alternative narrative.

minsmum · 05/01/2024 10:25

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1743196635843174574 Breaking unconfirmed reports that Gerasimov has been killed

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1743196635843174574

DancesWithDucks · 05/01/2024 10:31

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

Russia is planning to buy short-range ballistic missiles from Iran and has already begun receiving similar munitions from North Korea, the Wall Street Journal reported on Jan. 4, citing comments from unnamed U.S. officials. https://kyivindependent.com/wsj-russia-plans-to-buy-ballistic-missiles-from-iran/

Ukraine’s UN envoy: Security Council to meet https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-un-envoy-security-council-to-meet-over-north-korea-supplying-missiles-to-russia/ over North Korea supplying missiles to Russia. [as someone on Twitter trenchantly pointed out, aggressive Russia's allies have no problems giving them large numbers of long range missiles whereas the invaded country can't get long range missiles from their allies]

⚡️ State Department: US may not continue supporting Ukraine at level of 2022, 2023 https://kyivindependent.com/state-department-us-will-not-continue-supporting-ukraine-at-level-of-2022-2023/
The U.S. is committed to supporting Ukraine for "as long as it takes" but that does not mean that the level of support will remain at the levels of 2022 and 2023, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said at a press conference on Jan. 4.
"We don’t think that should be necessary because the goal is to ultimately transition Ukraine...to stand on its own feet and to help Ukraine build its own industrial base and its own military industrial base so it can both finance and build and acquire munitions on its own," he said.

⚡️ISW: Russia begins negotiations https://kyivindependent.com/isw-russia-begins-negotiations-with-algeria-saudi-arabia-uae-to-open-russian-cultural-centers/ with Algeria, Saudi Arabia, UAE to open Russian cultural centers abroad, likely aimed at increasing Russian influence in the Middle East and North Africa, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in its assessment on Jan. 4. [BRICS is also expanding. Russian / Chinese influence is very much on the growth]

⚡️Military: Ukrainian strike hits Russian command post https://kyivindependent.com/military-ukrainian-strike-hits-russian-military-command-post-near-sevastopol-in-occupied-crimea/ in Crimea. [No details]

⚡️Germany handed over a Skynex air defense system, 10 Marder armored vehicles, ammunition for Leopard tanks, and other aid in its latest delivery to Ukraine, the German government announced on Jan. 4. https://kyivindependent.com/germany-sends-skynex-air-defense-system-other-military-aid-to-ukraine/

Ukraine's Foreign Ministry condemned an event on the "rebirth" of Mariupol after Russia's brutal siege, planned by an Italian pro-Russian association, as propaganda and a provocation, Ukrainska Pravda reported on Jan. 4, citing Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Oleh Nikolenko. https://kyivindependent.com/foreign-ministry-condemns-italian-event-on-russias-rebuilding-of-mariupol/

Russia has doubled the amount of attacks against Ukrainian forces in the southeastern sector over the past day, said Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi on Jan. 4.
Tarnavskyi is the head of the Tavria group of Ukraine's military that is fighting in some of the hottest spots on the front, including the ongoing battle for Avdiivka. https://kyivindependent.com/military-russia-has-doubled-attacks-in-southeastern-sector/

⚡️National Resistance Center: Russian occupation authorities to force https://kyivindependent.com/national-resistance-center-russian-occupation-authorities-to-force-ukrainian-teenagers-into-military-registration/ Ukrainian teenagers into military registration.
Russian occupation authorities in southern Ukraine plan to force all local teenagers aged 17 to register at Russian-controlled military enlistment offices starting from March this year, the National Resistance Center reported on Jan. 4.
The move is part of Russia’s preparations for a mass mobilization campaign in the occupied territories of Ukraine, according to the center run by the Ukrainian military.

⚡️Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi and Defense Minister Rustem Umerov start https://kyivindependent.com/zaluzhnyi-umerov-start-talks-parliamentary-committee/ talks with parliamentary committee on new mobilization law.

⚡️Interior Minister: Police open https://kyivindependent.com/nterior-minister-police-open-9-000-criminal-cases/ 9,000 criminal cases related to draft evasion.

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) uncovered a scheme along with its counterparts in Moldova to help Ukrainians of draft age escape to Transnistria, a Russian-occupied region in Moldova, the SBU reported on Jan. 4. https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-uncovers-scheme-to/

⚡️Putin signs https://kyivindependent.com/putin-signs-decree-on-giving-russian-citizenship-to-foreign-fighters/ decree on giving Russian citizenship to foreign fighters.
Foreign nationals who join the Russian Armed Forces while the invasion of Ukraine is ongoing can apply for Russian citizenship, according to a decree signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin on Jan. 4.

Belgium will send two F-16 fighter jets and 50 training personnel to Denmark from March to September to support the training of Ukrainian pilots, the Belgian broadcaster RTBF reported on Jan. 4, citing comments from the Belgian Defense Ministry. The training program will include instruction for Ukrainian pilots, technicians, and mission planners. https://kyivindependent.com/belgium-to-send-f-16-fighter-jets-to-denmark-for-ukrainian-pilots-to-train-on/

⚡️Pentagon: Ukrainian pilots in the US expected to complete https://kyivindependent.com/pentagon-ukrainian-pilots-expected-to-complete-f-16-training-by-end-of-2024/ F-16 training by end of 2024.

⚡️ Official: 2,000 trucks waiting in line https://kyivindependent.com/official-2-000-trucks-waiting-in-line-at-polish-border-to-enter-ukraine/ at Polish border to enter Ukraine.

⚡️Russian official: nearly 100 people evacuated https://kyivindependent.com/russian-official-nearly-100-people-evacuated-near-sevastopol/ near Sevastopol.

Lithuanian food company Viciunai Group has been added to Ukraine's list of "international sponsors of war" for its continued activities in the Russian market, the National Agency on Corruption Prevention (NACP) announced on Jan. 4. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-designates-lithuanian-food-company-as-international-sponsor-of-war/

Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko approved amendments to the law on the Belarusian presidency on Jan. 3, guaranteeing immunity for any former president of Belarus and introducing stricter rules on who is eligible to become president. https://kyivindependent.com/lukashenko-signs-law-on-presidents/

14-year-old Ukrainian chess player, Ihor Samunenkov, won the title of Grandmaster on Jan. 2, 2024. Samunenkov is now the youngest player in the world to hold the title.

The artillery losses keep going. Just how many artillery did Russia have to begin with, anyone know? And what's the total now?

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦

⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - JAN 5, 2024
■ 🇺🇦 strikes & engagements around 7-day average, 🇷🇺 strikes & settlements under artillery fire well below
■ Casualties close to average, triple-digit landbased equipment losses
■ Missiles & special equipment stay at record 7-day

Ukraine Invasion: Part 46
DesdamonasHandkerchief · 05/01/2024 10:50

Bleak assessment of the situation from Tendar on Twitter:

We are currently in a pre-stage of a world war. I compare it to the period between 1936-1939. The civil war in Spain is raging and it is unclear who will win, but Italy and Germany help Franco, while the West mainly stays silent. Same goes with Czechoslovakia and Austria, two sovereign nations which still are independent but on the verge to be annexed. Again the West does nothing. By the end of this pre-world war period the fascist regimes have achieved everything and with the Hitler-Stalin Pact the gates to WW2 are now fully open.

Russia, North Korea and Iran, as well as their minions such Hezbollah, Hamas, Assad-Syria and the Houthis in Yemen are currently moving against the free world. China is in my opinion currently more on the side-lines even when some Chinese hardware appears in Russian arsenal, but it is far from what it could be if China seriously goes in. China has its own plan and it does not include an existent Russia.

This might sound bleak but it doesn't have to be. There is still a chance to avert world war 3. The key to everything is Ukraine, and this is no hyperbole. When Russia fails in Ukraine, then the whole axis of the dictatorships will fall apart. Putin will be considered the greatest loser of Russian history, will be removed and Russia in its current form will end to exist. Regimes in countries like Belarus, Syria and Serbia will lose their puppetplayer and will end. The mullah regime will be extremely exposed and vulnerable, offering the freedom-loving people of Iran to finally overthrow their mullah regime. This in turn will cause a domino effect in the Middle-East, ending the most important ally of the Assad regime, Hezbollah and Hamas, and freeing Syria and Lebanon from their biggest curse.

It is up to us in the West if we want to avert WW3. Ukraine and her fight are directly connected to this question. Ukraine is the key between freedom for all of us or WW3 if Ukraine is abandoned. There is nothing in between. It cannot be overstated that this is the single-greatest decision of our times.

https://x.com/tendar/status/1743216405900599485?s=46&t=eNB9C4pL0g2Opkl4oCmOsQ

MagicFox · 05/01/2024 15:45

I agree about the significance of Ukraine but I'm not sure how I feel about this kind of rhetoric about WW3. I'm very worried about the increase in support for the far right across Europe and I can't lie that this assessment is in my absolute nightmares. But that feels very weaponised here. I've looked at his bio but not sure who this is?

OP posts:
Igotjelly · 05/01/2024 15:50

I generally find it really unhelpful to compare anything to the beginning of either of the previous World Wars. The reality at the time was very different, at that point nation states could fight wars without the risk (until obviously the very end of WW2) of mutually assured distraction. The invention of nuclear weapons has changed the calculations too much for the 2 periods to be comparable.

Igotjelly · 05/01/2024 15:52

I do however think Ukraine and support for Ukraine holds the key to whether China decides it’s worth military intervention in Taiwan. If the West abandons Ukraine then China will make the fairly safe assumption that the same would happen with Taiwan given time.

DancesWithDucks · 05/01/2024 15:56

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

According to the WSJ citing information from US officials, Russia is actively considering purchasing short-range ballistic missiles from Iran, with a potential delivery anticipated this spring.
However, there is no confirmation or belief among officials that the purchase agreement has been finalized at this time.

The US recorded the launch and trajectory of at least one North Korean ballistic missile launched by the Russians over Ukraine on December 30, US National Security Council Coordinator John Kirby said. It fell in an open area in Zaporizhzhia, and it was launched from the Voronezh region. The rocket traveled approximately 460 km.
Kirby says that North Korea wants to get fighter jets, anti-aircraft missiles, armored vehicles and equipment for the production of ballistic missiles from Russia in exchange for these missiles.
If we take into account the previous statement about short-range missiles, then, most likely, we are talking about KN-23 ballistic missiles—aka "Hwasong-11Ga". These missiles are much larger than the Russian Iskander missiles.

The Polish government has announced that the embargo on the export of Ukrainian products will be in effect indefinitely, said Minister of Agriculture Czeslaw Sekerskyi.

Military observer Yigal Levin shared excerpts from a document detailing medical aspects in the Russian army during ongoing war, prepared by Israeli military medicine experts:
▫️The mortality rate among Russian Armed Forces on the battlefield is reported to be 33%, resembling levels observed during World War II.
▫️Common causes of death for invading forces on the battlefield include burns and frostbite due to harsh winter conditions. Traumatic brain injuries are also prevalent, often linked to the inadequate use of helmets — either old, low-quality, or not worn by Russian soldiers.
▫️The primary cause of death among the invaders on the battlefield is excessive blood loss from limb wounds.
▫️Most wounded invaders are transported by wheeled vehicles to field hospitals at the Ukraine-Russia border. Subsequently, after initial aid, these wounded individuals await evacuation by helicopter or aircraft, a process that is frequently delayed.
▫️Many wounded soldiers are evacuated from the battlefield without receiving initial aid.
▫️The initial evacuation period from the battlefield is notably extended, averaging around 24 hours, coupled with additional waiting time for flights.
▫️The primary "treatment" offered to the wounded in hospitals is reported to be amputation of affected limbs.
▫️Despite existing standards and requirements for sanitation and hygiene within the Russian army, these standards are often unmet in practice. Units reportedly struggle to maintain adequate hygiene.
▫️The quality and organization of soldiers' food are purportedly subpar and poorly managed.

The US is preparing additional sanctions against those involved in the transfer of military aid to Russia from North Korea and Iran, including ballistic missiles, Kirby said.

The construction of a logistics and transport hub is planned at Antonov Airport, located near Kyiv. The project will be implemented by the Turkish company Mabtec Engineering and Consultancy — Deputy Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Economic Development, Dmytro Kysylevsky.

The fortunes of the wealthiest Russians surged by $50 billion in 2023, according to Bloomberg.

The Tambov bakery in Russia faced US sanctions in December for assembling small Bekas drones on its premises, subsequently used by the Russian army in Ukraine.
This move exemplifies Russia's shift to a wartime economy. In a state television report, the factory manager proudly showcased Bekas drones alongside freshly baked bread rolls, quipping, 'They even smell like fresh bread!' as mentioned by journalist Alexander Rogatkin.
Across various regions, diverse industries pivoted to produce military equipment. For instance, a hockey stick workshop in Naberezhnye Chelny switched to crafting body armor, a Chelyabinsk glamping tent company now manufactures military sleeping bags and tents, and a Voronezh agricultural equipment plant churns out mine clearance gear, binoculars, and anti-drone equipment.
Despite the Bekas drones being relatively simple and low-cost, they rely on foreign components, common in most of Russia’s high-tech military products. Pavel Luzin, a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington, notes that these drones mainly sport a 'Snipe' sticker as a Russian identifier.
Tracking the supply chain of these drones proves challenging due to the simplicity of their design and components.
Chinese 3D printers, commonly used, add to the difficulty as their components are typically shipped separately.
While US sanctions may deter foreign suppliers from providing components to the bakery, the company remains confident in its ability to sidestep restrictions due to its low-cost, small-scale production.

🇩🇪Germany has announced a new military aid package for Ukraine, the first of the year.

It includes:
▫️10 infantry fighting vehicles MARDER;
▫️1 air defense system SKYNEX with ammunition;
▫️2 TRML-4D air surveillance radars;
▫️2 armored engineering vehicles WISENT 1;
▫️bridge-laying tanks BEAVER;
▫️10 ground surveillance radars GO12;
▫️10 trucks Zetros;
▫️3 truck tractor trains 8x8 HX81 and semi-trailers
▫️31 vehicles;
▫️missiles for IRIS-T SLM air defense systems.
The package also includes 9,080 rounds of 155 mm ammunition, 305 assault rifles MK 556,750,000 rounds of ammunition, 30 drone detection systems, 30,000 winter clothing sets, and 3,350 helmets.

🇮🇹 Italian Prime Minister Meloni believes that further assistance to Ukraine with weapons is necessary in order to ensure parity on the battlefield with Russia, otherwise the war threatens to spread closer to her country

🇸🇰Slovakia provides humanitarian aid package worth €203 thousand to Ukraine.

DancesWithDucks · 05/01/2024 16:00

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Russian troops shelled Kherson once again. Four people were wounded. A warehouse with humanitarian aid, residential buildings and vehicles were damaged.

⚠️Russia produces up to three Su-34 fighter-bombers a year
Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ignat, commenting on the arson of Su-34s at the Shagol airfield reported by the DIU (GUR), said that the loss of the aircraft is very significant for Russia. Their production under sanctions is quite long and problematic.
According to him, Su-34/35 are the most modern aircraft of the occupiers.

🇳🇵The government of Nepal has banned https://apnews.com/article/nepal-russia-ukraine-fighters-0beb52115ebaf44657384a17bd6a827a its citizens from traveling to Ukraine or Russia to work because of the risk of being recruited for war. The government is aware of the fact that Nepalis are being recruited into the Russian army and has checked the data on Nepalis in the ranks of the Ukrainian army, but has found no evidence of this.
In December last year, Nepal demanded (https://babel.ua/news/101389-nepal-zaklikav-rosiyu-pripiniti-verbuvati-yogo-gromadyan-na-viynu-proti-ukrajini) that Russia stop recruiting and return up to 200 Nepalis from the army, as well as the bodies of six citizens killed in combat. The statement was made after a video with a captured Nepali. The government is negotiating with Ukraine on this issue.

Kadyrov asks the United States to lift sanctions against him and his family in exchange for captured Ukrainians.
For his show, the terrorist invited American Scott Ritter, a propagandist previously convicted of pedophilia.

❗️Attention, almost 100% fake
Visegrad 24 is spreading this information [that Gerasimov is dead] from jokers on the Internet and presenting it as "unconfirmed reports". The largest Ukrainian telegram channels are spreading the same information, referring to Visegrad 24.
There is no credible evidence that Gerasimov was injured during the incident in Crimea, nor is there any evidence that he was even present in Crimea.

🇱🇹The Lithuanian Ministry of Education is proposing https://www.delfi.lt/ru/news/live/ministr-obrazovaniya-posle-incidenta-so-strelboy-rassmatrivaet-vozmozhnost-otkaza-ot-russkih-shkol-v-litve-95526303** to abandon Russian-language schools in the country after a shooting in one of these educational institutions.
As previously reported in the media, on Christmas Eve, two teenagers studying at a Russian-language school in Vilnius district started shooting with air guns at their classmate for not supporting Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
According to the victim's mother, her son was shot at with plastic bullets from an AK-74M pneumatic rifle. The shooters also played the anthem of the Wagner PMC. The police are currently investigating the incident.

Nepal bars citizens from going to Russia or Ukraine for work, saying they are recruited as fighters

Nepal’s government has banned citizens from going to Russia and Ukraine for employment, saying many have been recruited by the Russian army to fight in the conflict there.

https://apnews.com/article/nepal-russia-ukraine-fighters-0beb52115ebaf44657384a17bd6a827a

MagicFox · 05/01/2024 16:19

Yes, agree Jelly. Not just nuclear weapons but the integration of supply chains etc. This really changes the landscape and is always something that seems to be left out in posts that mention WW3. That assessment is very black and white both in its comparisons to the past and description of today. Not that my stomach doesn't dip whenever it's mentioned!

OP posts:
blueshoes · 05/01/2024 17:40

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-4-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • Ukrainian military officials reported that Ukrainian forces struck at least one Russian military target in occupied Crimea, while Russian officials and milbloggers claimed that the Ukrainian strike was unsuccessful.
  • US National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby stated on January 4 that Russia has already launched ballistic missiles acquired from North Korea at targets in Ukraine and continues efforts to acquire similar missiles from Iran.
  • Russia may be intensifying efforts to source ballistic missiles from abroad because these missiles appear to be more effective at striking targets in Ukraine in some circumstances.
  • US National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby dismissed recent Western reporting of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s willingness to engage in peace negotiations with Ukraine as “ballyhoo” during a press conference on January 3.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree strengthening procedures for granting foreign citizens Russian citizenship in exchange for Russian military service in Ukraine, likely as part of ongoing efforts to coerce migrants into the Russian military.
  • Kyrgyzstan sentenced a Kyrgyz citizen to five years in prison for participating in the war in Ukraine as a member of the Wagner Group.
  • Russia has begun negotiations with Algeria, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Saudi Arabia to open Russian cultural centers (Russkii dom) abroad, likely aimed at increasing Russian influence in the Middle East and North Africa.
  • Russian forces made confirmed advances near Kreminna and Avdiivka as positional engagement continued along the entire frontline.
  • Ukrainian sources reported that Russian authorities are planning to mobilize Ukrainian teenagers living in occupied Ukraine.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on January 4 streamlining the process for certain Ukrainians to receive Russian citizenship.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 46
MMBaranova · 05/01/2024 23:13

>It's certainly an alternative narrative.

I think it is worth dipping in to see how things are perceived and information circulated on the Russian side.

However, I have had a 5 days work in 4 week and have had little time to delve.

DancesWithDucks · 06/01/2024 13:30

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Economy Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko: Ukraine's exports to grow https://kyivindependent.com/economy-minister-ukraines-exports-to-grow-by-9-in-2024/ by 9% in 2024 and 19.4% in 2025.

International reserves peaked at a record high of $41.7 billion in July 2023 but then decreased for four months until December. The increase over the last month was largely due to foreign exchange (FX) inflows from Ukraine's international allies, the NBU said, which outstripped FX sales and debt repayments. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-international-reserves-rise-after-monthslong-slump-to-40-5-billion/

⚡️Zelensky, Erdogan discuss https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-erdogan-discuss-peace-formula-black-sea-security-in-phone-call/ peace formula, Black Sea security in phone call.

⚡️EU prepares https://kyivindependent.com/eu-prepares-alternative-solutions-for-ukraine-aid-in-case-55-billion-package-fails/ alternative solutions for Ukraine aid in case $55 billion package fails.
She said the Commission is currently preparing "operational solutions" in the event the package fails to pass, though she did not disclose the details of those alternatives.

⚡️UN: Russia's war harms EU economy.
Hamid Rashid, the UN's Global Economic Monitoring Branch (GEMB) chief, said that due to Russia's war, the EU's economic prospects for 2024 were "quite gloomy." https://kyivindependent.com/un-russias-war-harms-eu-economy/

⚡️ Ukraine's military intelligence claims cross-border raid https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-military-intelligence-claims-cross-border-raid-on-russian-positions-in-belgorod-oblast/ on Russian positions in Belgorod Oblast.
The agency said it planned the operation after receiving reports that Russian commanders were coming to inspect positions in the area.

⚡️Military: Ukrainian strike hits ammunition warehouses https://kyivindependent.com/military-ukrainian-strike-hits-ammunition-warehouses-in-occupied-crimea/ in occupied Crimea.

⚡️The Ukrainian Air Force carried out a successful attack against the Saky airbase in Russian-occupied Crimea, Air Force Commander General Mykola Oleshchuk said on Jan. 6. https://kyivindependent.com/commander-air-force-destroys-russian-command-center-in-occupied-crimea-airport/

⚡️ Russian official: Russia aims to produce over 32,000 civilian drones https://kyivindependent.com/russian-official-russia-aims-to-produce-32-000-drones-annually-by-2030/ annually by 2030.

⚡️DTEK: Russian attacks target, damage https://kyivindependent.com/dtek-russian-attacks-damage-front-line-power-plant-again/ front-line power plant again.
DTEK, Ukraine's biggest private energy company, said the plant struck on Jan. 4 had been attacked more than a dozen times in the past 2.5 months. In one Russian strike, five workers were injured.

Polish Agriculture Minister Czeslaw Siekierski is expected to sign an agreement with farmers blocking the Shehyni-Medyka crossing with Ukraine on Jan. 6 in a bid to lift the blockade, Rzeczpospolita reported
https://kyivindependent.com/media-polish-minister-to-sign-deal-with-farmers-blocking-shehyni-medyka-crossing/

⚡️ Ukraine allocates over $26 million https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-allocates-over-26-million-to-shelters-hospitals/ to shelters, hospitals.

Russia has begun moving residents out of Belgorod in the aftermath of the Dec. 30 attack on the city, Belgorod Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov claimed on Jan. 5. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-official-residents-flee-belgorod-following-attacks/ Gladkov said Belgorod residents were posting pleas for relocation assistance on social media.

⚡️ Sweden to withdraw aid https://kyivindependent.com/sweden-to-withdraw-aid-to-mali-over-stance-toward-russia/ to Mali over its support of Russia.

⚡️Umerov: Ukraine, Latvia to work on joint projects https://kyivindependent.com/umerov-ukraine-latvia-to-work-on-joint-projects-in-drone-production/ in drone production.

⚡️Finland plans to ban https://kyivindependent.com/finland-plans-to-ban-russian-lng-from-2025/ Russian LNG from 2025.

⚡️Reuters: Nepal stops https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-nepal-stops-issuing-work-permits-for-russia-due-to-citizens-killed-fighting-in-ukraine/ issuing work permits for Russia due to citizens killed fighting in Ukraine.

A company associated with billionaire Oleg Deripaska, the Moscow-based firm Arsenal, bought a Falcon 7X jet from the Kazakh carrier Irtysh-Air and imported it to Russia in February 2023. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-oligarch-skirts-sanctions-buys-new-jet-via-kazakhstan/

Belarus Weekly: Lukashenko's Belarus abducts more Ukrainian children https://kyivindependent.com/belarus-weekly-lukashenkos-belarus-abducts-more-ukrainian-children/

⚡️ Polish EU commissioner seeks restrictions on Ukrainian sugar, poultry. https://kyivindependent.com/polish-european-commissioner-seeks-restrictions-on-ukrainian-sugar-poultry/

⚡️Scottish government to cut https://kyivindependent.com/scottish-government-to-cut-funds-for-housing-ukrainian-refugees/ funds for housing Ukrainian refugees.

⚡️ Russian oligarch's firm files $1 billion claim https://kyivindependent.com/russian-oligarchs-firm-brings-1-billion-claim-against-ukraine-over-bank-nationalization/ against Ukraine over bank nationalization. ABH Holdings S.A. (ABHH) banking group, whose main shareholder is sanctioned Russian oligarch Mikhail Fridman, filed an arbitration request and a claim of over $1 billion against Ukraine over the nationalization of Sense Bank, the company said in its press release on Jan. 4.

Law enforcement officers are investigating a report of enlistment officers in military uniforms forcefully dragging a man into a car in Kharkiv, Governor Oleh Syniehubov said during a press briefing on Jan. 5, New Voice reported. kyivindependent.com/law-enforcement-investigates-kharkiv-enlistment-officers-pushing-man-into-van/

⚡️Deputy head of Ukraine's Federation of Trade Unions suspected https://kyivindependent.com/deputy-head-of-ukraines-federation-of-trade-unions-suspected-of-bribe-attempt/ of bribe attempt.

Corruption prevention agency to monitor Energoatom head https://kyivindependent.com/corruption-prevention-agency-to-monitor-energoatom-head-over-relatives-property-purchases/ over relative's property purchases. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty's investigation project Schemes reported on Dec. 21 that Kotin's mother-in-law bought a house and land worth Hr 7 million ($183,000) near Kyiv during the full-scale war without having an official income except for pension.

⚡️ Governor: Russia plans war propaganda museums https://kyivindependent.com/governor-russia-plans-museum-of-its-invasion-in-occupied-luhansk-oblast/ in occupied Luhansk Oblast.

President Volodymyr Zelensky was said to have "resembled a walking corpse" in the first weeks of the full-scale invasion, which he did not believe would happen "until the final hours," the Telegraph reported on Jan. 4 in an excerpt of a book on Zelensky by Time journalist Simon Shuster. https://kyivindependent.com/shuster-book-excerpt-reveals/

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦
ragnarbjartur.bsky.social

⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - JAN 6, 2024
■ Strikes on both sides & settlements under fire well below 7-day average, engagements slightly above
■ Casualties match 7-day average, moderate landbased equipment losses
■ Special equipment losses stay at record 7-day level

Ukraine Invasion: Part 46
DancesWithDucks · 06/01/2024 13:58

UNITED24 Media Telegram

❗️Tensions between North and South Korea have escalated significantly following an artillery strike from North Korea directed towards the South. South Korean television reports indicate that both nations are intensifying their preparedness for a potential conflict, with one network stating, 'The preparations for war have reached an advanced stage.'

According to Politico, Republican Party candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, along with similar candidates like Trump, might consider the departure of the United States from NATO if elected.
The reasoning behind this stance, as conveyed by Trisha McLaughlin, a spokeswoman for Ramaswamy's campaign, includes concerns about NATO allies not meeting their military spending commitments and the belief that NATO's expansion since the Cold War has increased the risk of potential conflict with Russia. This perspective raises the possibility that if candidates like Ramaswamy or Trump are successful in the election, the future of the Alliance might be in question.

Nepal stopped issuing work permits in the Russian Federation due to the recruitment of citizens for the war
The government said it estimates that up to 200 citizens of the country are serving in the Russian army, and about 100 Nepalese are considered missing. The ban on issuing work permits also applies to Ukraine, although checks in the ranks of the Ukrainian troops

🇳🇴 Norway completed handing over to Denmark two F-16 fighter jets intended for training Ukrainian pilots

⚡️ The IOC did not admit Russians and Belarusians to the Youth Winter Olympics-2024, — the press service of the International Olympic Committee.
"No individual neutral athlete is qualified to participate in the 2024 Winter Youth Olympic Games," the IOC said.

The Minister of Education, Science, and Sports of Lithuania, Gintautas Jakstas, has initiated discussions regarding the transition of Russian schools in Lithuania to Lithuanian-language education.

Ukraine is set to engage in discussions with the new Polish government at various levels regarding the border blockage issue resulting from a strike by Polish carriers at checkpoints. Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Minister Dmytro Kuleba stated that while the situation involving the border blockade and restrictions on certain Ukrainian goods by Poland is complex, there's a clear determination from Warsaw to address these issues.

The Ministry of Digital Transformation in Ukraine announced the creation of the D-21-11 robot, designed to perform various combat missions including reconnaissance, storming or defending positions.
Additionally, this robot has the capacity for safely delivering ammunition or provisions to fighters in volatile areas. According to Fedorov, the detachable combat component of the robot, D-11, has undergone successful testing and has garnered positive feedback from the military. The developers aim to integrate NATO weaponry into the robot while enhancing its resistance against enemy electronic warfare.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 46
DancesWithDucks · 06/01/2024 14:17

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

[This is 4 minutes but goodness, if all Russians had this woman's clear sight and courage the country would be a far better place! https://t.me/liveukraine_media/16983 ]

Reduced supply of shells to Ukraine by the Western partners is causing disparity in artillery firepower.
Jack Watling of Royal United Service Institute predicts Russia could fire 5m rounds in 2024, factoring in defense production, Iran/North Korea supply, and existing stocks.

🇧🇪 🇪🇺Belgium has officially assumed the presidency of the European Union. Prime Minister Alexander de Kroo said that support for Ukraine remains a priority.

🇰🇵🇰🇷For the second day in a row, the DPRK has been firing artillery at the border of South Korea near the demarcation line in the Yellow Sea, near the island of Yeonpyeong.
In fact, North Korea is firing at the maritime border between the countries under the guise of exercises - 60 shells have been fired so far, and 200 the day before, and they fell in the Yellow Sea buffer zone.
▫️On January 1, DPRK leader Kim Jong-un said that North Korea no longer seeks reconciliation and reunification with South Korea. At the same time, he threatened to "completely destroy" the United States and South Korea if they resort to "provocations."

In Kyiv, sappers neutralized the warhead of a Kinzhal hypersonic missile.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 46
Ukraine Invasion: Part 46
Ukraine Invasion: Part 46
Ukraine Invasion: Part 46
DancesWithDucks · 07/01/2024 10:19

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-6-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • Ukrainian forces are conducting a multi-day strike campaign against Russian military targets in occupied Crimea and have successfully struck several targets throughout the peninsula.
  • A Russian milblogger argued that Russian forces need to improve planning and coordination at the tactical and operational levels so that Russian offensive operations can break out of the current positional warfare in Ukraine.
  • Western provision of air defense systems and missiles to Ukraine in the near- and medium-term remain crucial for Ukraine’s development of a defense industrial base (DIB) that can sustain Ukraine’s war effort against Russia in the long-term.
  • The Danish Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on January 6 that it is delaying its first delivery of six F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine for up to six months.
  • Russian and Ukrainian forces continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on January 6.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues efforts to incentivize service with the Russian military by advertising support for housing.
  • Russian occupation authorities are struggling to provide basic services to residents of occupied areas of Ukraine.

Notable:
ISW has not observed any indication that Russian forces have improved their ability to plan and coordinate offensive operations given the ongoing costly and disorderly Russian offensive effort near Avdiivka. Russian forces in Ukraine have proven capable of successfully adapting limited aspects of their operations or defensive efforts in certain sectors of the front, however.

US State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller stated on January 4 that the provision of US aid remains “critical” because Ukraine is not yet able to defend itself but will not need to continue at current levels because Ukraine is working to expand its defense industry to be able to “stand on its own feet.”

Ukraine Invasion: Part 46

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