Thread 33 Sunak : Sense and Sunakability

[DuncinToffee]

After 10 dyas on the rollercoaster, we now look forward to 5 more pledges and a mini budget

Previous thread
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/4939564-thread-32-sunak-sunak-v-suella-the-final-countdown?page=40&reply=130888910

itsgettingweird

He seems to be planning to make it harder to sign people off work entirely, which I'm assuming leads to then sanctioning people for not seeking work (regardless of whether suitable roles exist).
I cannot work (well, I work about 1 hour a month) but DH earns enough that I don't have to. I'm thankful that I don't need to claim benefits in this increasingly hostile system as there's no way I could spend 30 hours a week looking for work, let alone actually working.

Not doing well on reducing debt either

https://x.com/PJTheEconomist/status/1727311022439182415?s=20

Debt barely falling. 91.6% of GDP next year, 93.2% in 2026-27 and 92.8% in 2028-29. That is basically flat. Despite borrowing of just 1.1% of GDP in 27-28.

Therein the problem. With high debt interest payments even a big primary surplus not enough to get debt down.

It was always going to be pie in the sky. For it to be otherwise would mean acknowledging they have utterly fucked the economy.

But the real function of the projected spending squeeze is as a trap for Labour. If the opposition rejects the Tory trajectory, it will be accused of planning a profligate spree with public money. And if it pledges adherence to impossible targets, it will enter government with its hands bound too tight to deliver prompt satisfaction to the people who voted for it.

And that's the basis for his decisions in this Autumn statement. Not the good of the country but to screw over the next government. Basically throwing their toys out of the pram.

Thanks for those 2 links above @DuncinToffee. Really interesting.

I wonder how dirty the run up to the election will be? The government plus the usual right wing press shenanigans? My initial thought is incredibly. But depends on what fight the government has left.

I see that 'but Jeremy Corbyn' got a mention

How embarrassing!

I posted this query on another thread but it went AIBU Cray Cray within seconds so I doubt I'll get an answer.

Anyway, my query is about how a whole class of National Insurance can be abolished and 'save' people money (Class 2s for self-employed). These people can't just stop paying NI, can they, without fucking up their state pension entitlements?

So they will have to pay one of the other classes somehow (Classes 1,3, or 4) which will cost them a lot more? So how is it saving the self-employed money?

All this ^^ was why the idea got kicked into the long grass a few years ago.

Does anyone have any more info on this, in case the BBC reporting got muddled? And when is this supposed to come into effect?

Checking in. Exhausted by it all.

That's what I want to know as it affects DH

Given that we currently have a recruitment freeze, agency staff freeze and overtime freeze, I’ll assume that getting people off sick pay isn’t going to involve some sort of plan to make them better so they are well enough to work.

Not that that’s an option for all of them obviously.

That is a very good point.

Someone on the other thread saying there's a NI 'credit' but I can't find any independent data on this despite searching the usual sources.

happy days.

All I can find on The Times -

Two million self-employed workers have been given a £350 a year tax cut after Hunt abolished class 2 national insurance and cut class 4 payments.

Describing the self-employed as “the people who literally kept our countries running through the pandemic” Hunt said: “ In recognition of the contribution made by self-employed people to our country, I can announce that we are abolishing class 2 National Insurance”.

The levy of £3.45 a week for people earning more than £12,570 gives access to state pensions, and Hunt promised self-employed workers would keep their entitlements “in full”.

Class 4 national insurance is levied on earnings between £12,570 and £50,000 and Hunt will cut the rate from 8 per cent to 9 per cent.

“These reforms will save around 2 million self-employed people an average of £350 a year,” he said.

Great - thank you.

£3.45 is 18.1 minutes at the new minimum wage.

Calling self employed people the people who kept our country running when you let loads of them fall through the gaps with furlough must be a bit galling.

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1727325146635980802?t=0zd4uDBe9hNCtoa0zf-2Xw&s=19

OBR on MASSIVE effects of fiscal drag:

This decade 4 million more will pay basic income tax

3 million moved to the higher rate

400,000 onto highest rate

This will now raise £43bn by 2029

£13.5bn higher than OBR thought in March

NI cut doesn't touch the sides

On the Covid Inquiry

Vallance, Whitty and Van Tam all testified that they were not consulted on Sunak’s eat ou to help out.

As budgets go it’s really shit. He’s spent what extra money he had on tax ‘cuts’ that aren’t really cuts and will leave those struggling most worse off and with no public spending even though public services are falling down. Literally.

It’s peak smash the country up before we leave.

What I don't understand is how we couldn't afford to give public sector workers a pay rise, because it would drive up inflation,but increasing minimum wage by 10% won't???

My money’s been on May for ages now. Bookies were offering 5/1 last week.