And Suella has been sacked

[WellWellSaidTheRockingChair]

not before time - wonder who will get the poison chalice.

if William Hague is still in the commons, but o don’t think he is, Rishi would be wise to draw in his experience and counsel.

Because he utterly fucked it up. A referendum on a matter as serious as that, a constitutional matter, should have required a super majority. He was so arrogant he didn’t write that in. He wrote as an advisory referendum, but also promised to honour it. He didn’t lay out the advantages of EU membership (he wasn’t alone in that, in fairness). And when it all went tits up he ran away instead of dealing with it.

@SerafinasGoose exactly! People talk rubbish on MN so much! Even if we could identify the 'silent' majority and question them they might lie for various reasons. It's a know fact people aren't always honest during questionnaires or interviews etc.

Plus people's politics change with age. They move to the right.

It's not true for everyone and never has been but recent research suggest younger generation are not becoming right wing - there's been suggestion later house buying and few having kid means less of a stake but there are lots of theories - it matters as next elections boomers cease to be biggest voting block.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jan/03/millennials-radicalism-not-getting-more-rightwing-with-age

https://www.ft.com/content/c361e372-769e-45cd-a063-f5c0a7767cf4 Millennials are shattering the oldest rule in politics

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/politics-conservative-twitter-millennials-gen-z_uk_63aef8cce4b0d6f0b9f354c5

In fairness to Cameron HE didn't promote ripping up the agreement. It was Leave who said that it didn't matter. Cameron was just arrogant in thinking that he'd win the ref and it therefore wouldn't be an issue.

Cameron called the ref to kill the tory redmeaters. However the problem hasn't been solved and the argument is still raging as hard as it was in 2016.

Cameron, Hunt and Cleverely are all One Nation Tories I believe.

Note from wiki:
The Conservative Party's 2010 general election manifesto contained a section on "One World Conservatism", including a commitment to spend 0.7% of national income on well-targeted aid. In 2006, Conservative Member of Parliament (MP) Andrew Tyrie published a pamphlet which claimed that party leader David Cameron was following the one-nationist path of Disraeli. Phillip Blond, a British political theorist who has had past connections with the Conservative Party, has proposed a renewed version of one-nation conservatism.

Cameron getting a recall in this context, isn't 'out there'.

Johnson and May both claimed to be One Nation Conservatives to try and retain votes, but never were. But both saw the importance of this sector of the Tory Vote and how important it was to the party.

According to this political philosophy, society should be allowed to develop in an organic way, rather than being engineered. It argues that members of society have obligations towards each other and particularly emphasises paternalism, meaning that those who are privileged and wealthy should pass on their benefits. It argues that this elite should work to reconcile the interests of all social classes, including labour and management, rather than identifying the good of society solely with the interests of the business class

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-nation_conservatism

This is much more in line with politics in the EU and at odds with the ultra libertarianism of Johnson and Truss. (And the US - particularly Trumpian politics). It actually is more in tune with the idea of the 'Northern Powerhouse' which was popular with Northern Voters than the actions of Johnson (Johnson's rhetoric was actually a ripped off plagerism of Andy Burnham! But his actions never reflected his words).

Its also much more in line with the tone of opinion polls. Ironically. There's not as much desire for libertarianism in a cost of living crisis - which was the desire of Tory Elites but not the population as a whole. Northern Johnson Voters aren't libertarians - they are hardworking blue collar workers who in times gone by probably would have been characterised by Methodist christian values of work and being idle being a sin. (Hence why austerity has/had its supporters) All of this is very much ironic. The Tory party problem is its been out of step with the public in recent years with the only thing it has had to offer has been an anti-immigration red meat policy. Arguably its not worked and arguably its been at the expense of the economy and has run its course. The protests at the weekend were the final straw. Its unsustainable - it risks civil unrest.

It really does highlight the internal war of the Conservative Party thats been going on since 2010 between One Nationers and RightWingnuter with UKIP sympathies, has REALLY never been resolved and Brexit hasn't resolved it at all.

I don't think Sunak will pull it off, but I do think there is a realisation that the Tory party has perhaps gone as far as it can with libertarianism and that throwing anti-immigration as the bait to hoodwink voters into libertarianism can't deliver.

The opinions which are interesting aren't coming from these people. The opinions that are worth listening to most at this point are ONLY Tory voters since 2010, because thats what Sunak is chasing here. He's not chasing die hard Labourites. He chasing that soft LD/Con vote. These are a lot of his key constitencies EVEN IF HE LOSES THE GENERAL ELECTION. The Tory party are in survival mode - they face total wipe out on recent polling. If he's working in party interests then he needs to hold on to as many seats as possible even if he loses, for a decent stint in opposition. Cameron will definitely get that. Cleverley is a former Party Chairman (if memory serves me correctly). You're describing me. Suella Braverman makes me shiver and I felt relief seeing Cameron walking back into No 10. I wish he had never left to be honest.

May's Deal was the best we were getting and was realistic at the point she put it to the Commons. The opposition fucked the country every bit as much as her own party

May laid out her Red Lines, no SM, no CU and Brexit means Brexit, she had a hard Brexit in mind, had too, the ERG had too much sway.

May and the Tories fucked the country, no one else..., least of all the opposition, thats just a line spun to try and absolve blame for Brexit from the Tories to others... May was weak and governed for her party not the UK... hence her stupid decision to call a GE, thats what wrecked her premiership..... i mean against Corbyn, she lost the Tories a 30 seat majority, how bad is that?

Regardless, it was her deal that we pretty much ended up with anyway, rebadged as a Bojo deal.

Cameron is equally as weak and it does show Sunaks desperation, he has no one left in his party he trusts or is from the centre right of his party (anyone centre was kicked out long ago)

We should remember Cameron was very close to the Russians and the Chinese, he has little judgement, even ignored Osbourne's advice not to have a referendum.

But all things said, at least he isn't a brexitier, though i wonder if he will be as part of the cabinet?

I agree it's not really true that people get more right wing with age. Studies suggest most people don't change their politics as they get older.

It's my view that the reason so many of the older generation today are loyal to the Conservatives is because they were young during the 1980s when the Conservative Government was selling public assets (e.g. utilities, housing stock etc) cheap and able to cut taxes because of revenues from North Sea Oil. Our older generations benefited significantly from this unsustainable windfall. Today they tend to prefer to think their wealth is due to hard work and that the Conservatives are economically competent. In contrast, their experience of Labour was the Winter of Discontent in the 1970s and the financial crisis of the late 2000s.

However, I don't necessarily think this loyalty to the Tories makes people that right wing. A lot of older relatives I know vote Conservative because of the triple lock and all the other benefits they have ringfenced. Also, yes there does seem to be a higher prevalence of far right views on race etc in that generation but a lot of the older generation I know will still vote Conservative but really don't like the kind of views espoused by people like Braverman.

But all things said, at least he isn't a brexitier, though i wonder if he will be as part of the cabinet?

I suspect the Tories might try and make as little as possible of the issue now, treat is as more of problem solved let's move on now issue. Reason being, these appointments indicate Sunak is trying to appeal to the soft right. The ones who didn't like Brexit (there were likely about 5 million habitually Tory Remain voters in 2016) and who only stayed with them in 2019 because they disliked Corbyn slightly more than Brexit. Those people will be happiest if the issue is discussed as little as possible.

@TrashedSofa The problem with Brexit is that it's going to get harder and harder to ignore. Countries like France and Germany are starting to pull away from the UK in terms of living standards and just like in the 1960s it's going to be increasingly obvious that the UK is harming itself by not being in the club.

I think there's a few things on this.

The political spectrum isn't left v right. Since 2010 we've see the pull both left and right but the pull of liberal v authoritarian has become much more relevant.

We've seen difficulties over this within all political parties. Theres almost a fracturing within Labour and the Tories over this.

There is more 'political homelessness' with voters thinking they aren't represented by ANY of the main parties than there was a generation ago.

Thats a bigger deal to any of this stuff than a really narrow left v right thing.

Economic hardship is an issue thats not going away fast. Millenials have less economic opportunity than Boomers. Most of this is connected to housing. No party has a policy advocating widespread building because Nimbyism is so powerful and our economy is so tied into house prices.

Possibly

Has she emerged from No 10 yet?

To that I'd add, the biggest group at the last GE were those who stayed at home. The big story was the Tory majority, of course, but that occurred due to the votes of only 30% of the electorate. Which goes to the point about political homelessness. It has the potential to become a significant issue.

@RedToothBrush i thin’ the ‘politically homeless’ thing has come about because of the polarising effect of social media. People have never agreed with everything about any party, they’ve voted on political philosophy/direction/general motivation. Social media has brought us to a situation where if a growing number of people don’t like one thing a party says they throw their hands up, declare them evil and vow never to vote for them again. It’s an impossible situation.

Well yes. It's not likely to be an easy task.

However, Sunak clearly isn't going to be going Rejoin. So his options are either tubthumping about a policy his target group were opposed to even before it failed us, or try and say as little as possible on the topic. It's evidently going to have to be Option B.

I wouldn’t be surprised if economic closeness overrides people and generally EU works out how to work together in a new way. As much as we’ve jumped things will get strained with FOM. Germany is making noises along those lines.

I thought that the unresolved issues with the EU and worries about the state of the US had a lot to do with it as well.

The polling is getting VERY interesting.

Not enough to merit any chance of rejoining. But certainly rejoining the custom union is on the table in my eyes. We haven't put in our proposed checks on goods at the border even now. They've been pushed back repeatedly. The EU conversely has put them in.

Hence we have the situation where it is currently technically illegal to go through EU customs with a half eaten ham sandwich from your flight, but its legal to bring a half eaten ham sandwich back from the EU due to these effectively asymetric border arrangements.

They REALLY arent in our interests. We need to make a decision over whether, long term we are going to continue with this, or we bite the bullet and sort the mess out.

The other interesting development in European politics is the breakdown in consistent schengen arrangements by the back door. Its quietly happening due to immigration and security concerns which aren't so dissimilar to the UK. I don't think we will see this trend reverse anytime soon.

Whilst I can't see us rejoining the single market, I do think, particularly with geo-political changes (see US and Ukraine and Israel), politics perhaps is favouring an associate European cooperation zone outside the EU to a greater extent. Ukraine wants to join the EU but I think this is politically not going to wash with EU members, but a softer arrangement with the UK and Ukraine inside makes sense. The US doesn't want to be so involved with European politics going forward and its hardline support for Israel isn't in tune with European politics now either. Europe doesn't have the stomach for the war in Israel (rightly or wrongly).

I do think we are seeing a big shift that just wasn't in play in 2016.

It is an opportunity for the UK. Ironically. Not a Brexit opportunity. But a shifting geopolitical one.

12345change · Today 11:39

Funny how people think they know what the silent majority think.

The silent majority, who aren't allowed to voice their opinions. Except all over Facebook and Twitter. And who comment on news articles on subjects they claim are ignored.

Hmm....

My Tory friends / family are fairly evenly split over Cameron's return.

Most aren't happy to see Suella gone. She speaks for a quiet majority.

In my experience people invoking the ‘silent majority’ are people with fairly extreme views who can’t imagine themselves wrong so imagine a huge group of people who agree with them but are too - what? Shy? Cowardly? - to say so publicly. It’s odd.
Opinion polling on all issues tends to indicate the true ‘silent majority’ in the U.K. is centrist.

I really don’t think you are right. She speaks for a very loud minority, and a small group of people who are just as extreme but shy of saying so. Not a majority of any sort.

I think unfortunately she speaks for a large number of people in the country

she will tone down her language but we keep ignoring that a large percentage of labour voters also hold right wing views around anything to do with race politics

she is a right ring populist it’s been proven a successful way to gain power in the last 10 years in the west and I can’t see that going away anytime soon

TBF I read that as @roarrfeckingroar simply talking about her own, unrepresentative circles. I may have read that wrong, but it would be possible for something to have silent majority support amongst people who identify themselves as supporters of a party whilst being opposed by a majority of the electorate.

God, I hope so.

I don't have massive faith in Starmer but lets at least get rid of this rotten crew.

Roll on the GE.

Of course she is HRTqueen. Whoever ignore the concerns of the majority would always be in for a shock when elections come.