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Ukraine Invasion: Part 44

981 replies

MagicFox · 20/08/2023 12:43

44th thread, all the usual thanks and appreciation

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OP posts:
Thread gallery
341
RedToothBrush · 07/09/2023 05:40

Some interesting things popping up on my twitter:

Referring to a post which described reports that Russia was facing logistics issues between Rostov and Mariupol:

Trent Telenko at trenttelenko
Oh my goodness, this:

"...many supplies are transported by car",

has a huge numbers of implications for Russian logistics.🤯

Russian De-motorization, Arriving

Civilian cars are very poor load carriers for the fuel used.

Yes, Russia is a petro-state, but you still have to move the gasoline, not diesel, to run the cars.

Russia has to be short of something to use cars in lieu of tactical or semi-tractor trailers to Mariupol.

We have been seeing Russian Ural "Scooby vans," or "Loafs" as some call them, for over a year in the tactical supply distribution role.

Semi-tractor trailers have been used statically & operationally for almost as long.

Using cars as strategic logistical transportation to Mariupol represents a fleet wide level of operational attrition affecting both tactical trucks like the Kamaz and Semi-Tractor trailer rigs.

That common denominator spells tire shortages.

We know at the beginning of the war Russia had ill maintained, sunlight aged, s--t tires from China on its missile launcher and tactical truck fleet.

To use civilian cars in the long haul strategic transport role to Mariupol from Rostov-on-the-Don means a horrific level of operational attrition representing the 'de-motorization' of the Russian Economy is happening in real time.

Christian Herrman AT chausberlin
There is lots of reporting happening in Russian media that apparently doesn’t have any fuel in the regions bordering Ukraine.

I'm not sure how true this is, but I saw a military blogger this week saying how numerous russian artillery needs engines running to fire (which makes them easier to spot especially in the winter cos they have to be warm) and their were issues over fuel which wasn't helping the amount of shells they could fire.

Over the past week Ukraine have been pushing a number of propaganda stories talking about Russian 'shell hunger' too. And thats been accompanied by reports of much reduced artillery fire in the area around Robotyne even as it's at a critical point for Russia.

Again I don't know the truth on this, but curious to see these stories at the same time.

With some of this on my radar, I did note yesterday morning how high the daily Ukrainian reporting of Russian vehicle / heavy weaponary was.

Then this just popped up on my twitter:

Referring to a post by at andrewperpetua on Ukrainian and Russian loses:

OSINTtechnical at OSINTtechnical
Russian vs. Ukrainian losses over the past two days via Andrew

TLDR: Russians lost 4x as much equipment.

Russian losses: 60 (16x IFV/APC, 12x MBTs, 14x artillery, 1x SPAA, 2x UAV, 12x transports, 1x MRAP, 2x EW)

Ukrainian losses: 14 (1x SPH, 2x MBT 3x IFV/APC,
2x MRAP, 1x UAV, 1x SAM, 3x transports, 1x ?????)
^^
A serious loss ratio for the Russians.

Disclaimer, these are visually confirmed losses, so all of the standard caveats of "we don't know what we cant see", but both sides do love to post videos of destroyed equipment.

modern archives at theTrutha_z
Not only that he has a map with links to every single photo or video supporting the claims! Russian losses have been mounting the last few days to 2022 levels! Russian got clobbered in the Lyman area and south of Bakhmut!

Its all caught my eye. It's September now. If ANY of this is true, it'll be interesting to see pan out as we head into mud season and then winter.

MagicFox · 07/09/2023 06:58

Good RUSI interview with Paul Poast on the future of global security post-invasion: podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/global-security-briefing/id1564065871?i=1000626924138

OP posts:
blueshoes · 07/09/2023 11:25

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-6-2023

Key Takeaways:

  • Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the Bakhmut and western Zaporizhia Oblast directions and have made gains in western Zaporizhia Oblast as of September 6.
  • Ukrainian and Russian sources report the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) faces growing challenges replacing basic supplies in addition to known challenges rebuilding its stocks of precision weapons.
  • Russian forces conducted a large missile and drone strike against Ukraine overnight on September 5-6.
  • Russian sources continue to speculate on the current role and future of dismissed Wagner-affiliated Army General Sergei Surovikin, the former commander of Russia’s Aerospace Forces (VKS).
  • US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced an additional $175 million military assistance package for Ukraine during an unannounced visit to Kyiv on September 6. [Excellent]
  • Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donestk City line, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas on September 6.
  • Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in at least two sectors of the front and advanced near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 6.
  • Russian authorities continue crypto-mobilization efforts amid continued rumors of a new wave of general mobilization.
  • Ukrainian reports indicate that Russian and occupation authorities continue attempts to increase social control in occupied Ukraine by cracking down against pro-Ukrainian materials in occupied schools.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 44
blueshoes · 07/09/2023 11:28

@RedToothBrush ISW supports Trent Telenko's assessment of RU tire shortages

Ukrainian and Russian sources report the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) faces growing challenges in replacing basic supplies in addition to known challenges in rebuilding its stocks of precision weapons. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence (GUR) Representative Andriy Yusov reported on September 6 that Russia can only produce “dozens” of Kalibr cruise missiles and smaller numbers of Iskander missiles per month, which will not enable Russia to the replenish its pre-2022 stocks.[3] Yusov reported that Russia struggles to obtain modern optical equipment, electronics, chips, and circuits and that “gray imports” and smuggling cannot completely cover the Russian DIB’s needs. Russian sources additionally noted that the Russian DIB cannot produce enough rubber to replace worn tires for military equipment vital to frontline operations, and noted that increasing wear on tires will make it difficult for wheeled vehicles to move in muddy, rainy, and icy conditions.[4] The Russian sources claimed that Russian authorities claimed at an unspecified time that they would find solutions to worn tires by mid-August, but the situation has not changed as of September 5.[5] Poor quality and insufficient tires will impose increasing constraints on Russian mobility in the muddy season and winter.

DancesWithDucks · 07/09/2023 13:07

over 50 artillery and MLRS gone, nearly 30 vehicles. Day after day, this has got to hurt badly.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 44
MagicFox · 07/09/2023 13:44

It might hurt but the thing with Russia is, they can keep going anyway. And that's been the vibe for so long hasn't it? "It means nothing;" "we are a great power"; "we can keep going for years." For me the losses now sort of just reinforce this narrative. But then maybe I'm a victim of good old Kremlin propaganda too, thinking like that!

OP posts:
MagicFox · 07/09/2023 14:20

Ukraine says it's sure about various Wagner members deaths in the plane crash, but not sure about Prighozin 🤔: x.com/nexta_tv/status/1699439582524150119?s=46&t=ZRiOqYBPJdwGCarjKNzCeQ

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 07/09/2023 15:07

MagicFox · 07/09/2023 14:20

Ukraine says it's sure about various Wagner members deaths in the plane crash, but not sure about Prighozin 🤔: x.com/nexta_tv/status/1699439582524150119?s=46&t=ZRiOqYBPJdwGCarjKNzCeQ

It serves Ukraine to let conspiracy theories run riot on Prighozin.

MissConductUS · 07/09/2023 15:38

MagicFox · 07/09/2023 13:44

It might hurt but the thing with Russia is, they can keep going anyway. And that's been the vibe for so long hasn't it? "It means nothing;" "we are a great power"; "we can keep going for years." For me the losses now sort of just reinforce this narrative. But then maybe I'm a victim of good old Kremlin propaganda too, thinking like that!

The logistical issues really do matter, at least in the short run. If you destroy enough trucks, troops go without food, water, and ammo, at least at times. That can have an immediate effect on combat effectiveness. One of the best examples is the Russian's widely reported "shell hunger". Their whole combat doctrine assumes overwhelming superiority in artillery fires. That stops working without a consistent supply of artillery ammunition. The Ukrainians have stopped complaining about shell hunger, thanks to the supply of CMs. That's allowing the US and others to ramp up standard HE artillery rounds production.

In the long run, all of these issues would be solvable for Russia if it wasn't a corrupt kleptocracy. The Russians used to make fun of the North Koreans (and the Urkainians) as being backward country bumpkins. Now, they're begging the North Koreans for supplies and getting their army dismantled by the Ukrainians.

MagicFox · 07/09/2023 16:03

Lovely points @MissConductUS

OP posts:
DancesWithDucks · 07/09/2023 16:05

Kyiv Independent Telegram

The Biden Administration is sending more air defense, artillery, and anti-tank weapons, incl depleted uranium rounds. https://kyivindependent.com/us-announces-new-175-million-military-aid-package-includes-depleted-uranium-rounds/

⚡️Blinken: US allocates (https://kyivindependent.com/blinken-us-allocates-over-1-billion-in-aid-to-ukraine/) over $1 billion in aid to Ukraine.

⚡️National Guard: https://kyivindependent.com/national-guard-russia-moving-troops-south-to-strengthen-defense/
Russia is relocating its troops to the southern front line from other sectors as Ukrainian forces continue to advance in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
They are reinforcing the units currently holding the Russian line in the Berdiansk and Melitopol sectors, Mykola Urshalovych told a press briefing.

⚡️CNN: Western officials meet https://kyivindependent.com/cnn-western-officials-meet-in-uae-to-discuss-sanctions-against-russia/ in UAE to discuss sanctions against Russia.

⚡️Lithuanian president: Ukraine could export https://kyivindependent.com/lithuanian-president-ukraine-could-export-10-million-tons-of-grain-annually-through-baltic-sea-ports/ 10 million tons of grain annually through Baltic Sea ports. According to Nauseda, although the ports can't serve to transfer as much grain as Ukraine does using main transit routes, the Baltic Sea corridors could significantly support Ukrainian exports hindered by Russia's withdrawal from the Black Sea grain deal.

Ukrainian grain is already being exported through Croatian ports, the Economy Ministry announced on Sept. 7, citing Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko's comments made during the Three Seas Initiative summit in Bucharest. https://kyivindependent.com/minister-croatian-ports-start-exporting-ukrainian-grain/

⚡️ Border guards raise flags in two 'gray zone' settlements near Russian border, https://kyivindependent.com/border-guards-raise-flags-in-kharkiv-oblast-gray-zone-settlements-near-russian-border/
in Stroivka and Topoli, two settlements in Kharkiv Oblast that have been previously inaccessible due to mines.

⚡️Zelensky to consult https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-to-consult-with-european-integration-minister-on-whether-to-veto-e-declarations-law/ with European integration minister on asset declaration law central to EU accession talks.
He will decide whether to veto a draft law on asset declarations after consultations with Olha Stefanishyna, the deputy prime minister for European and Euro-Atlantic integration, he told journalists on Sept. 6.
Anti-corruption watchdogs and opposition lawmakers argue that the EU and IMF are unlikely to accept the bill in this form.

⚡️Petition asking Zelensky to veto asset declarations law passes threshold https://kyivindependent.com/blinken-us-allocates-over-1-billion-in-aid-to-ukraine/ for presidential consideration.
Blinken also said for the first time that the U.S. will fund support for Ukrainian military veterans from "assets seized from sanctioned Russian oligarchs," saying that those who "enabled Putin's war of aggression should pay for it."

⚡️France delivers https://kyivindependent.com/france-delivers-150-delair-drones-to-ukraine/ Delair drones to Ukraine.

⚡️ Stoltenberg: NATO sees no indication of deliberate Russian attack against Romania. https://kyivindependent.com/stoltenberg-nato-sees-no-indication-of-deliberate-russian-attack-against-romania/

Emergency Service: Russian attack on Kostiantynivka kills 17, injure 32 https://kyivindependent.com/update-russian-attack-on-kostiantynivka-kills-17-injures-32/

⚡️Ukraine's defense minister aims to introduce electronic military ID https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-defense-minister-aims-to-introduce-electronic-military-id/ Newly appointed Defense Minister Rustem Umerov has announced his intention to introduce an electronic military ID card in Ukraine, and launch a unified register of conscripts.
Speaking to lawmakers at the Verkhovna Rada on Sept. 6, Umerov said that it is also crucial to make all processes of military medical commissions digital.

World's first ladies, gentlemen discuss mental health https://kyivindependent.com/worlds-first-ladies-gentlemen-discuss-mental-health-at-zelenskas-summit-in-kyiv/ at Zelenska’s summit in Kyiv
The Third Summit of First Ladies and Gentlemen was held in Kyiv on Sept. 6. Under the slogan "Mental Health: Fragility and Resilience of the Future," this year’s event was dedicated to the growing issue of the Ukrainian nation’s state of mental health.

⚡️ Zelensky introduces new Defense Minister Umerov, names key tasks. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-introduces-new-defense-minister-umerov-names-his-key-tasks/
The key five priorities that the president assigned to the new defense chief include strengthening the central role of the ministry in the defense sector, putting soldiers as the foremost value, expanding international partnerships, curbing corruption, namely through digitalization, and reforming the military to NATO standards.

Ukraine imposes sanctions on petty pro-Russian politicians, yet ignores https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-imposes-sanctions-on-petty-pro-russian-politicians-yet-ignores-most-high-profile-ones/ most high-profile ones.

Oligarch Kolomoisky is behind bars. How did he get there and can he find a way out https://kyivindependent.com/oligarch-kolomoisky-is-behind-bars-how-he-got-there-and-can-he-find-a-way-out/ Ihor Kolomoisky's recent arrest is the latest episode in a prolonged, hard-fought slide from grace for one of Ukraine's most notorious oligarchs.

⚡️ Oligarch Kolomoisky charged with embezzling $250 million from PrivatBank.
(https://kyivindependent.com/oligarch-kolomoisky-charged-with-embezzling-250-million-from-privatbank/)

⚡️ Russian officer formerly in charge of Moscow air defense arrested for bribery.

https://kyivindependent.com/russian-officer-formerly-in-charge-of-moscow-air-defense-arrested-for-bribery/ Major General Konstantin Ogienko, a Russian military officer formerly in command of Moscow's air defense, had been arrested on bribery charges, Russian state news agency RIA Novosti reported on Sept. 7.

British American Tobacco (BAT), one of the world's leading tobacco companies, said it would sell its Russian and Belarusian businesses to a consortium led by its Russian management team. https://kyivindependent.com/british-american-tobacco-sells-businesses-in-russia-belarus/

Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken shared a meal at McDonald's in Kyiv on Sept. 6, 2023.

Ragnar Gudmundsson
WAR IN #UKRAINE - SEP 7
■ More strikes, more engagements reported
■ Continued big troop losses, triple-digit equipment losses
■ Record high week of artillery losses
■ Oryx: +11 Ru, +4Ukr (net change) - ratios unchanged

Ukraine Invasion: Part 44
Ukraine Invasion: Part 44
DancesWithDucks · 07/09/2023 16:28

UNITED24 Media Telegram

The aid package from the United States includes a range of military equipment and supplies, with Ukraine set to receive:
▫️120-mm depleted uranium ammunition designed for the Abrams tank.
▫️Equipment to bolster air defense systems.
▫️Additional ammunition for HIMARS.
▫️Artillery shells in 155 mm and 105 mm calibers.
▫️81-mm mortar systems and associated shells.
▫️TOW missiles.
▫️Javelin and AT-4 anti-tank complexes.
▫️Over 3 million cartridges for small arms, among other provisions.

US President Joe Biden is looking forward to meeting Zelenskyy in the near future, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said.

Kuleba said that during the negotiations with Blinken, the issue of providing Ukraine with long-range ATACMS missiles was raised.
According to the head of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, he is glad that "this option remains open".

Elon Musk secretly shut down Starlink operations off the coast of Crimea last year to thwart an attack by Ukrainian naval drones on the Russian Armed Forces fleet, — CNN [fucking arsehole]
The publication writes that the drones, complete with explosives, had already approached the fleet, but suddenly "lost communication and harmlessly disembarked."
Musk's decision was reportedly prompted by fears that Russia would respond to Ukraine's attack on Crimea with nuclear weapons, but the head of Ukraine's Ministry of Digitization, Mikhail Fedorov, convinced the businessman to resume Starlink’s communications.

Denmark is preparing a new package of military aid to Ukraine. It will be the 12th, President Zelenskyy announced after the visit of the Prime Minister of Denmark, Mette Frederiksen, to Kyiv.

❗️Civil and port infrastructure objects, an elevator and an administrative building were damaged as a result of an attack by "Shahed" enemy drones in Odesa region; the truck driver received a minor leg injury.

🤔 Russia is likely to publish a list of companies from "unfriendly countries" in September, — FT.
These companies will be at risk of expropriation, meaning their assets could be seized.
Danone and Carlsberg's assets have already been seized.

❗️CNN reports that Ukraine's economy is displaying signs of recovery, with a reported GDP growth of 2.2% during the first seven months of 2023.

Since the start of 2022, over 100 Russian athletes have changed their sports citizenship and joined foreign teams, according to Deputy Minister of Sports of Russia, Alexei Morozov.

According to "Kommersant" reports, there are proposed changes in Russia concerning the military registration of prisoners. The proposed amendments suggest removing a subparagraph from the "Regulations on military registration" that previously exempted citizens serving a sentence of imprisonment from military registration. Instead, a new concept called "special military registration" is proposed for these individuals.

Volodymyr and Olena Zelenskyy are celebrating their 20th wedding anniversary today!

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has announced that, for the first time, the United States will transfer assets confiscated from Russian-sanctioned oligarchs to Ukraine. This transfer is set to include $5.4 million, which will be allocated to support and rehabilitate veterans in Ukraine.
This financial assistance is part of a larger aid package totaling over $1 billion, as outlined by Blinken. The aid package encompasses various forms of support, including:
▫️$175 million for components of air defense systems, HIMARS missiles, ammunition, and communication systems.
▫️$100 million to meet long-term military requirements.
▫️$90.5 million for humanitarian aid, particularly focused on demining efforts.
▫️$300 million to support law enforcement agencies in restoring and maintaining law and order in liberated territories.
▫️$206 million for humanitarian aid, including shelter for internally displaced individuals within Ukraine and refugees in neighboring countries.
▫️$203 million to bolster transparency and accountability in institutions, strengthen critical reforms related to combating corruption, upholding the rule of law, and pursuing justice. Additionally, these funds will be used to investigate war crimes attributed to Russia.

MAPS: WHERE RUSSIA IS ACCOMODATING UKRAINIAN CHILDREN. Russia is assimilating Ukrainian children, extinguishing their Ukrainian identity. This is genocide — as defined in international law. Right now it is happening all over the states of Russia, Belarus and in occupied Crimea. This is state-wide policy and state-wide effort — as maps clearly show.

In collaboration with the Regional Center for Human Rights (rchr.org.ua/en).

Ukraine Invasion: Part 44
Ukraine Invasion: Part 44
Ukraine Invasion: Part 44
Ukraine Invasion: Part 44
Ukraine Invasion: Part 44
DesdamonasHandkerchief · 07/09/2023 16:38

🤔 Russia is likely to publish a list of companies from "unfriendly countries" in September, — FT.
These companies will be at risk of expropriation, meaning their assets could be seized.
Danone and Carlsberg's assets have already been seized.

I hope to God Unilever, Pepsi, Mondelez and the rest of the western owned corporate sponsors of war are on that list and have their russian assets seized - they should have got out of there in February 2022 instead of increasing their profits with blood money.

DancesWithDucks · 07/09/2023 16:43

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Ukrainian intelligence is not 100% certain that Prigozhin died in the plane crash
GUR representative Andriy Yusov says that now we can only say for sure that Utkin died.

🇪🇺 Most EU countries oppose extending ban on Ukrainian agricultural imports beyond mid-September despite calls from five eastern member states to keep restrictions in place - Politico

🇩🇰 Denmark will provide Ukraine with more than $43 million for reconstruction and humanitarian aid.

Newly appointed Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said that his team intends to audit all areas under the Ministry of Defense's jurisdiction and improve the defense capabilities of the domestic manufacturer.
"Everything that can be produced in Ukraine should be produced in Ukraine," he said.
In addition, Umerov emphasized that the priority tasks include preparing the necessary infrastructure for the full operation of F-16 fighters

🗺 Ukrainian businesses can now register on Google Maps again. The company blocked this feature for Ukraine in April 2022 for security reasons.

Ukrainian Greek Catholic bishops met with Pope Francis and told him that the glorification of Russia's imperial past "has hurt the Ukrainian people."

Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan said (https://rus.azatutyun.am/a/32582342.html) that in recent days Azerbaijan has been building up its military presence along the demarcation line with unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh and the border with Armenia.
He sees this as a signal that Azerbaijan is preparing a new armed provocation against Nagorno-Karabakh and called on the international community to respond to prevent a new war.

Three Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 attack drones were spotted at the Wagner PMC military base in Mali, Africa.
The images taken from a helicopter were obtained by The Insider on August 30. The drones are stationed at the Sevare airport near the city of Mopti.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 44
Ukraine Invasion: Part 44
Ukraine Invasion: Part 44
Ukraine Invasion: Part 44
RedToothBrush · 07/09/2023 17:02

Old Soviet tires, Chinese and North Korean tires are no substitute for well made tires. Russia does not have the capability to make good quality tires with sanctions and corruption. Kamil Galeev has made this point repeatedly. It might be able to make a lot, but they won't last long. No one wants to be stuck in the mud with shit tires or trying to change a tire with Ukrainian paper drones over head.

We are ALREADY seeing massive issues with moral due to lack of food, supplies and ammunition. That can only get worse.

Its also harder to move reserves to the front quickly if you don't have enough trucks to put men in. So if the frontline starts to crack, you can't be as responsive as you might like.

Meanwhile Ukraine has got a good supply of armed vehicles with tires, that are proving hard to blow up.

Even with muddy season approaching that means things are fundamentally different to last year. (I note here that its the anniversary of the Khakiv offensive today and that saw a significant shift - so there is still time before The Mud).

It also means that once the ground has frozen, and you can move again, you'd expect things to be really tough for Russia. Really tough.

I think its telling that current reports are that Russians are mining everything in Verbove. They do not expect to hold it. Their own actions are that its just a matter of time. There's lots of emphasis on putting down as many mines as possible generally. Except the Ukrainians are getting better at dealing with minefields. And minefields are only useful if you have the artillery to back it up and men to fire at it, rather than run away. The reports over the weekend were about Russians running away at the sign of contact. Thats not the case everywhere, but conscripts don't want to fight and there's less of the threat of Wagner putting a bullet in the back of your head (still Chechens to do this mind).

RedToothBrush · 07/09/2023 17:07

Christoph Trebesch AT Ch_Trebesch
New update of our Ukraine Support Tracker. The big news: Europe overtakes the US by a large margin (total EU now 2x US). If we add UK, NOR, CH, then US commitments are only 45% of Europe’s (€70 bn vs €156 bn). This is a major shift compared to first year of war. A thread 1/7

The key development is a shift to multi-year packages in Europe. The EU Commission announced a €50 bn “Ukraine Facility” in its budget (2024-27), making it the single largest donor. Norway promised €6.6 bn over 5 years. Additional multi-year packages came from UK, Denmark, Sweden, Portugal, Lithuania, Switzerland and Germany.

The EU also caught up with the US in military aid commitments. If we add Norway and the UK, then Europe's total military pledges now clearly exceed those of the US. This is the first time we see that in our data since early 2022

The new European multi-year packages shift the rankings in % of GDP (EU-level aid and refugee aid not included, see our website for that). For bilateral aid as % of GDP, Norway is now Nr. 1, followed by the Baltics. Germany enters top 10 for the first time, the US drops out

On Germany, I have been very critical in the past, but it has become a major, reliable donor, incl. a new €10bn military package. Total promised aid is now €51 bn (10bn short & 10bn long-term bilaterally, 17bn EU aid share + 14bn for refugees). That is not far from US (€70bn)

On heavy weapons (tanks, howitzers, MLRS etc), Germany now accounts for almost half of all EU commitments (47% of total delivered and promised by EU countries, according to our estimates). Similairly, GER has now committed almost half as much as the US

Phillips P. OBrien AT PhillipsPOBrien
Might be a harbinger of an even bigger shift ahead

Many Americans might learn that talking about leaving Europe and letting Europeans fend for themselves is effective populist politics, but it will make the world a much more unstable place for US foreign policy.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 44
Ukraine Invasion: Part 44
MissConducUS · 07/09/2023 19:43

Good quality tires are surprisingly difficult to manufacture. The factory has to have tightly controlled temperature and humidity levels and the manufacturing process is complex. DH won't buy anything other than Michelins for our cars.

The WSJ ran an interesting article about how Russian control in Crimea is slipping. People are being publicly shamed and harrassed for playing Ukrainian pop music.

I think appointing a Crimean Tartar and Muslim as the new Minister of Defense was a very savvy move by Ukraine. It sends a message about intentions, and he's already working to build closer ties with Muslim countries like Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

In Crimea, Pro-Ukraine Feelings Prompt a Russian Crackdown - Amid increasingly frequent strikes by Kyiv’s forces, some Crimeans show new faith in a return to Ukrainian rule

Updated Sept. 7, 2023 12:03 am ET

Every few days, Russian occupation authorities on Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula parade newly caught “traitors” in front of the cameras.

For some, the crime consisted of playing Ukrainian songs in public, running a pro-Ukrainian social-media account or tying yellow cloth strips, a sign of resistance to Russian rule, to fences and trees. Other detainees include shopkeepers and gas-station attendants who had refused service to Russian soldiers. Still others stand accused of more-serious acts of resistance: blowing up railroad tracks or gathering intelligence for Ukrainian missile and drone strikes.

While this crackdown is meant to cow pro-Ukraine residents of Crimea into submission, it also highlights a worrying fact for Russian occupation authorities: Despite their claims, believed by many outside Russia, that the people of Crimea solidly stand with Moscow, many Crimeans openly yearn for a return to Ukrainian rule.

Given the degree of repression, estimating the level of such support for Kyiv is impossible. Moreover, many Ukrainian citizens have fled Crimea since Russia annexed it in 2014 and hundreds of thousands of settlers from all over Russia moved to the peninsula, attracted by its beaches and subtropical weather.
But one thing is clear: The Kremlin’s decision to launch a full-out invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has put Crimea’s future back on the table, with Russian rule no longer viewed by virtually all of the peninsula’s residents as likely permanent.

“Ukrainian citizens who live in Crimea and want the restoration of Ukrainian administration have always been numerous, but until 2022 they believed that the territory of Crimea will be occupied for a long time,” said Borys Babin, a Crimean-born Ukrainian politician who serves as an expert at the Association for the Reintegration of Crimea. “The pro-Ukrainian population has become more optimistic. These feelings are bursting to the surface, and we can see them.”

Punishments for showing these feelings are often severe, with prison terms and forced confessions that are broadcast on a Telegram channel called the Crimean Smersh—a reference to the Stalin-era abbreviation for counterintelligence death squads.

August’s catches included a man apologizing for posting “Glory to Ukraine” on social media, another for blasting a Ukrainian song about burning a Russian tank, and three young hostesses at the Alushta aquapark who had danced to another Ukrainian pop tune. The three women were made to sing on camera about the greatness of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Russia’s FSB intelligence service, meanwhile, paraded a man who had allegedly blown up a gas pipeline in Crimea, one of several such recent detentions on sabotage charges.

Most of those detained for such acts of resistance aren’t members of the traditionally pro-Ukrainian Crimean Tatar community, an estimated 12% of the peninsula’s population. Many are ethnic Russians who are repulsed by Russia’s militaristic autocracy and prefer a return to democracy under Ukrainian rule.

Seizing Crimea in 2014, as the Ukrainian army didn’t fire a shot to resist, was a major achievement for Putin, boosting his popularity at home and whetting his appetite for other parts of Ukraine.

“Ukrainian citizens who live in Crimea and want the restoration of Ukrainian administration have always been numerous, but until 2022 they believed that the territory of Crimea will be occupied for a long time,” said Borys Babin, a Crimean-born Ukrainian politician who serves as an expert at the Association for the Reintegration of Crimea. “The pro-Ukrainian population has become more optimistic. These feelings are bursting to the surface, and we can see them.”

Punishments for showing these feelings are often severe, with prison terms and forced confessions that are broadcast on a Telegram channel called the Crimean Smersh—a reference to the Stalin-era abbreviation for counterintelligence death squads.

August’s catches included a man apologizing for posting “Glory to Ukraine” on social media, another for blasting a Ukrainian song about burning a Russian tank, and three young hostesses at the Alushta aquapark who had danced to another Ukrainian pop tune. The three women were made to sing on camera about the greatness of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Russia’s FSB intelligence service, meanwhile, paraded a man who had allegedly blown up a gas pipeline in Crimea, one of several such recent detentions on sabotage charges.

Most of those detained for such acts of resistance aren’t members of the traditionally pro-Ukrainian Crimean Tatar community, an estimated 12% of the peninsula’s population. Many are ethnic Russians who are repulsed by Russia’s militaristic autocracy and prefer a return to democracy under Ukrainian rule.
Seizing Crimea in 2014, as the Ukrainian army didn’t fire a shot to resist, was a major achievement for Putin, boosting his popularity at home and whetting his appetite for other parts of Ukraine.

“Crimea is part of our territory and we have to liberate it. More than that, we will liberate it,” Oleksiy Danilov, the head of Ukraine’s national security and defense council, said recently. “Most likely, it will happen by the force of arms…Any other outcome with Crimea means preserving the situation and passing on the war to our heirs, to our children and grandchildren.”

Since last October, Ukrainian strikes twice disabled the only bridge linking Crimea with Russia, a structure that was built at a cost of $4 billion and was personally unveiled by Putin in 2018 as a symbol of the permanence of Russian rule. Another naval-drone attack on the bridge was thwarted on Saturday, according to Moscow. Increasingly frequent Ukrainian strikes have also targeted key military bases, ammunition depots, logistics nodes and command centers across the peninsula.

These attacks have throttled Crimea’s all-important tourism industry, with Russian-installed authorities forecasting that only some 4.5 million to five million Russians will vacation on the peninsula this year—half as many as in 2021. Logistics disruptions have also led to a fuel crisis, with many Crimean gas stations running out of gas, and some cities recently experiencing power blackouts. The destruction of the Kakhovka dam in the nearby Kherson region of Ukraine, meanwhile, has dried out the main canal supplying Crimea with fresh water.

As a result, many Crimeans who originally backed annexation by Russia are now changing their mind, said Abbas Gallyamov, a former speechwriter for Putin who has left Russia and opposes the government.

“There used to be that sentiment in Crimea of return to a home harbor, but you have to understand that this return was so popular because the Ukrainian authority seemed weak and the Russian authority seemed strong,” Gallyamov said. “But now that Russia is losing, and doesn’t show any strength, the legitimacy of the Putin regime has been eroded. And when Ukraine is strong, many Crimeans are thinking ‘Maybe we have made a mistake?’ ”

Many senior officials and military commanders in Ukraine hail from Crimea, and seek to return to their homeland. Ukraine’s new defense minister, Rustem Umerov, appointed by President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday, is a Crimean Tatar former lawmaker. Maj. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the HUR military intelligence service that carries out many of the strikes in Crimea, spent most of his youth in Sevastopol and considers himself a Crimean.

Asked about the attitude of Crimeans to a return of Ukrainian authority, Budanov told a Ukrainian TV channel in August: “There are unfortunately some that are very afraid, but very many are also awaiting us, and we have to give them certainty that their dreams are not in vain.”

Some Crimeans have a good reason to be afraid: Draconian anti-collaboration laws were passed by Kyiv last year. These laws, which aimed to deter collaboration with Russian occupation authorities across Ukraine as Putin invaded the country, impose criminal penalties for service in Russian institutions, including schools and local administrations. The legislation has been used to prosecute collaborators in parts of the Kherson and Kharkiv regions that Kyiv regained last fall.

While most of Crimea’s pre-2014 residents have retained Ukrainian passports, valuable because they provide visa-free access to the European Union, virtually all of them have also had to obtain Russian citizenship to stay in their homes.
Tamila Tasheva, a former human-rights activist in Crimea who now serves as Zelensky’s representative for Crimean affairs, said that new legislation is needed to differentiate collaboration in Crimea, now in its 10th year of Russian rule, from Ukrainian areas that were governed by Russia for just a few weeks or months.

“A person is not a criminal just because he or she lives under occupation. Occupation is a temporary state under which life must go on,” she said. “We cannot use in Crimea the norms that don’t take into account the length of the occupation.” Only the most active collaborators who have worked with the Russian military and security services, and who helped establish Russian rule in Crimea, should be prosecuted, she said.

The approach would be different to the Russian settlers who moved to Crimea after 2014, Tasheva said: They would be required to leave, unless they obtain a Ukrainian residence permit. “They are all co-conspirators in the crime of the colonization of territory, and the change of its demographic makeup.”

One of the Crimeans fighting for a return to Ukrainian rule is Oleh Sentsov, a filmmaker who was imprisoned by Putin on “terrorism” charges in 2014 and released in a 2019 prisoner swap with Kyiv. Now a soldier in the Ukrainian military, Sentsov was recently injured as his unit pushed through Russian minefields in the Zaporizhzhia region north of Crimea.

“From us to Crimea, it’s as far as to the moon, but we will surely overcome that distance,” he wrote in a recent Facebook post. “The only question is how long it will take. And how many more friends will turn into black-and-white photographs in the meantime.”

In Crimea, Pro-Ukraine Feelings Prompt a Russian Crackdown

Occupation authorities on the peninsula regularly parade “traitors” on camera, aiming to cow Kyiv-supporting residents into submission.

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/in-crimea-pro-ukraine-feelings-prompt-a-russian-crackdown-123494b0?mod=hp_lead_pos10

Igotjelly · 07/09/2023 20:03

I’m in Poland at the moment, lots of Ukrainian flags and have seen several Ukrainian servicemen on their uniforms, despite being 100s of miles away it suddenly feels quite real.

DancesWithDucks · 07/09/2023 20:17

Lovely to hear. IN the NL there aren't many Ukrainian flags around at all now :(

Igotjelly · 07/09/2023 20:26

Scotland is the same (where I’m from) there used to be loads but they’ve gradually been removed.

MissConducUS · 07/09/2023 20:28

We have Ukrainian colors out on our house, as do many of our neighbors. Lots of businesses have "We Support Ukraine" signs. New York has quite a large Ukrainian community.

RedToothBrush · 07/09/2023 21:36

We initially had a lot of Ukrainians in our very small community (was about 1 Ukrainian to every 100 residents at one point). But most have now moved on and very few are still here. They simply couldn't afford the area. It's harsh.

They've been to less affluent areas but there is a new community organisation that's been set up by a friend of DHs. They've managed to get a mini bus. Initially all this had been talked about establishing in our area but thats not how things have played out.

From what I hear the 'success' of placements was about 50:50 in terms of how well hosts and guests got on. There were really successful arrangements but some that went badly wrong too.

Local signs are still pro Ukrainian but really they all but been forgotten as time has gone on.

Greenshake · 07/09/2023 21:50

My car sticker 🙂

Ukraine Invasion: Part 44
DancesWithDucks · 07/09/2023 21:55

That's a nice one, not too showy but quite clear.

DancesWithDucks · 08/09/2023 09:56

Kyiv Independent Telegram

Ukraine war latest: Russia moving troops to southern front line https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-russia-moving-troops-to-southern-front-line-to-strengthen-defense-kyiv-says/ to strengthen defense, Kyiv says
According to the National Guard, Russia is relocating its troops to the southern front line from other sectors as Ukrainian forces continue to advance in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

⚡️ US intelligence: 'Realistic possibility' that Ukraine can break through remaining Russian lines in 2023.
https://kyivindependent.com/us-intelligence-realistic-possibility-that-ukraine-can-break-through-remaining-russian-lines-in-2023/ There is a "realistic possibility" that Ukrainian forces can break through the remaining Russian defensive lines on the southern front by the end of 2023, Trent Maul, the director of analysis of the U.S.' Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), said in an interview with The Economist on Sept. 6.
Ukraine's forces pierced through the first of three Russian defensive lines near the village of Robotyne and are attacking the second line, with notable success, the official of the Pentagon's intelligence agency said.

⚡️Reuters: Improved winter air defenses may protect https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-improved-winter-air-defenses-may-protect-ukraines-power-grid-from-russian-attacks/ Ukraine's power grid from Russian attacks.
Ukraine is preparing its air defenses with upgraded weapons systems to combat Russian assaults on the power grid during winter, Reuters reported on Sept. 7.

⚡️ MEPs call on https://kyivindependent.com/meps-call-on-zelensky-to-veto-draft-law-on-asset-declarations/ Zelensky to veto draft law on asset declarations.

⚡️ Women with medical education to be considered https://kyivindependent.com/women-with-medical-education-to-be-considered-eligible-for-military-enlistment/ eligible for military enlistment.
Women with a medical or pharmaceutical education must register military enlistment offices from Oct. 1, Fedir Venislavskyi, Zelensky's representative in parliament, said on Sept. 7.

⚡️ Zelensky holds https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-holds-phone-call-with-netanyahu-on-visa-free-travel-pilgrims-to-ukraine/ phone call with Netanyahu on visa-free travel.

⚡️US, UK sanction https://kyivindependent.com/us-uk-sanction-members-of-russian-cybercrime-ring/ members of Russian cybercrime ring.
The U.S. and the U.K. imposed sanctions on 11 members of the Russian cybercrime group Trickbot in a coordinated effort, the U.S. Treasury Department announced on Sept. 7.
Trickbot is a Russian-based group that targets non-Russian entities, including financial institutions and hospitals, with ransomware campaigns. According to the U.S. Treasury Department, the group's aims are aligned with the Russian government.

⚡️ UNESCO adds https://kyivindependent.com/unesco-adds-20-ukrainian-cultural-heritage-sites-to-enhanced-protection-list/20 Ukrainian cultural heritage sites to enhanced protection list.
The list includes the Kyiv Pechersk Lavra, an important monastery famous for its complex cave systems, Lviv's historic center, Taras Shevchenko's grave, and the Derzhprom building in Kharkiv, which was the first skyscraper built in the Soviet Union.

‘My body, my business https://kyivindependent.com/my-body-my-business-ukrainian-lawmakers-move-to-legalize-porn/ Ukrainian lawmakers move to legalize pornography
Producing and distributing pornography is currently illegal in Ukraine.

We're excited to share that the Kyiv Independent has won the Audience Growth award at the second annual Future of Media Awards.

Ukraine is opening its first underground schools in Kharkiv.
Basements and subways are being utilized to host classrooms of children, so they can continue to study amidst Russia’s ongoing attacks in the region.

The losses are becoming jaw dropping. Nearly 70 APV's& vehicles, 23 tanks!! and 31 artillery. And 640 dead men who would be alive if not for Putin.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 44
Ukraine Invasion: Part 44