Ukraine Invasion: Part 44

[MagicFox]

44th thread, all the usual thanks and appreciation

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Where does your information come from about fortifications?

The area is tactical for water supply and artillery coverage of two roads, that I can see.

I worry about this with my guest. He left Kyiv at the start of the war because he had 3 small children who his wife would have struggled to cope with alone. He still does his job online (university lecturing in a techy subject so it feels necessary for Ukraine, not a luxury) as well as working here. But as time goes on I wonder how much men who sat the war out safely elsewhere will be resented by those who were reluctantly forced into fighting. At the start it didn’t feel like an issue because he wouldn’t have been called up anyway.

I think it is a genuine concern. As you say @TheCountessofFitzdotterel the reasons for leaving lose their weight as time goes on.

Only two? blinks

Ambush billing sounds nasty.

Reporting from Ukraine and other channels have been featuring Klischiivka regularly in recent weeks. It was frequently mentioned how strong the fortifications are and how difficult the assault would be.

This one from a bit earlier... here it is mentioned specifically hoe formidable the defences there are. About 2.40 in

If my translation is correct this is Leningrad Rail Station

https://twitter.com/babaikit/status/1698781862179610757?s=20

"Translate" suggests "Сьогодні на росії палають склади на ленінградському вокзалі у москві." means "Today in Russia warehouses are on fire at the Leningrad railway station in Moscow." So perhaps not the station itself, but storage areas near or attached to it?

Nice fire, anyway!

This guy has been very cautious and pessimistic as to the situation all week. He's now saying the following:

George Barros AT georgewbarros
Ukrainian soldiers are progressing.

Ukrainian infantry have reached the fighting positions near Verbove - the third and final layer in the tri-layered Surovikin line.

Ukrainian forces continue pressuring the line between Verbove and Robotyne and may be setting conditions to breach the line in earnest.

Available footage shows no evidence of fighting vehicles or heavy equipment with these Ukrainian troops yet.

The observed Ukrainian infantry group is small and not necessarily dispositive of a breach

We still don't see evidence of the defense lines being dismantled in a manner consistent with a breach. (Eg displaced dragons teeth, cleared lanes for vehicles, filled in ditches etc).

Its still cautious but it's explicit in saying the Ukrainians had got to the final layer in the defense line. We have seen evidence of vehicles being readied to go nearby. If Ukraine have taken hill166 and Russia abandoned artillery up there, they don't necessarily have to get heavy weapons there immediately.

Emil Kastlehelmi AT emilkastlehelmi
The situation in the Robotyne-Verbove area is developing in a positive direction for the Ukrainians. Ukraine has further penetrated the first Surovikin line near Verbove, now reaching the main trenchline.

Ukrainians have also overran Russian positions south of Robotyne. 1/

It seems the Ukrainians have established a more permanent foothold in the outskirts of Verbove, and it's not just recon operations.

However, this isn't a breakthrough yet - we haven't seen quick maneuvers or Ukrainian armored vehicles operating beyond the dragon's teeth. 2/

I'm actually somewhat surprised the Ukrainians have managed to capture the positions south of Robotyne. It's still a bit unclear which parts are they holding, but I presume the larger trench complex is still under Russian control. 3/

The Russian defence is likely experiencing difficulties. They haven't been able to push Ukrainians back anywhere in this sector.

The situation can be even worse for the Russians than shown here - the map is a conservative estimate based on geolocations and satellite imagery. 3/

There is now geolocated confirmation of positions in the hills (though not as far as hill 166 yet). Overall the more cautious military bloggers seem to be quietly surprised by how far Ukraine have actually progressed despite the lack of breech. It's possibly more than any dared to hope.

Noel Reports AT Noelreports
AFU advanced west of Verbove by entering a part of the infantry trenches behind the anti-tank ditches.

If they can advance southward, RU defensive positions west of the infantry trench become untenable and heavy armor can be transferred in, making the anti-tank ditch useless.

Tatarigami UA AT tatarigami_UA
Allow me to present a russian propagandist's nightmare: notably deteriorated defensive positions to the west of Verbove, evidence of significant fire pressure on the intricate multi-layered defenses, both before and after the so-called "Surovikin line."

I know several families in a similar position.

At least one has finally said that they wish to stay in the UK permanently to their hosts. Hosts have been trying to get them to leave after nearly 16 months but they have been reluctant to.

In theory if they are here for 5 years they'd qualify for indefinite leave to remain. But the visa is only three years. And neither adult is in an occupation they could get a skilled visa from.

How that will play out I don't know, but a Labour government would probably help their cause.

I suspect that many men in this situation will simply never return to Ukraine. I do think there will be hostility to men who didn't serve in some capacity.

How the EU handles it will also be interesting to see.

You are making a very important point about the UKs government's decision not to give refugees from Ukraine refugee status within the UK.

Regarding the men who left Ukraine with their families by honest (e.g eligible number of dependants, age, disability, medical condition) or not so honest means (paid the border guards at the start of the war to cross over illegally)… there will also be some who were already abroad working or on holiday when the war broke out, and hadn’t returned home….

I think they will definitely be judged by those who stayed. The severity of judgement would also depend on where they lived before and if they have somewhere to come back to. E.g. relatively safe areas - I know that nowhere is really safe but let’s say Western areas, or Mariupol/ Bakhmut scenario.

I agree, a lot of them will want to stay, and will find a way to, in particular if they fear retribution for crossing over illegally. Or if they have no home/ town/ village to come back to…

From Chris_O, who does slightly longer threads on the experience of Russian soldiers at times.

ChrisO_wiki

17/ The 1486th then switched to supporting the 98th Airborne Division's 331st Airborne Regiment, who also suffered greatly. Dmitry says that the combat area, which is only about 0.6 square miles (1.5 km²) in size, is littered with the unburied bodies of thousands of Russians.

19/ "This place, so you know, is not the most pleasant: a square of one and a half by one and a half kilometres, in which almost six thousand people are stacked (killed). Just from the last mobilised regiments.

20/ "Nobody takes the 200s [dead] out from there, because there is simply nowhere to put them. Usually they were taken to Rostov, but now everything is overcrowded there.

21/ Now we have a respite, and only because so-called "Storm" units are being sent to this very problematic place - these are some drunkards and refuseniks brought in from nowhere. So they gathered one hundred military men and periodically throw them on assaults."

"thousands" of unburied bodies is going to be utter hell - in the summer they will rot, giving rise to danger of disease (bacteria from dead bodies can be very nasty). The smell will be awful, plus rats. Given that at least some Russian units seem to be badly fed and they are in an area with all these dead bodies, I wonder if disease is a major problem.

If the usual processing centres for the dead are overwhelmed, as is indicated here, it must be bad.

According to my guests the visas can be extended by another three years.
I don’t know how this works with the 5 years needed to apply for residency though- iirc the 3 years of the initial visa didn’t count towards that.
Their reason for wanting to stay in the short term is mainly because of the lack of safe air raid shelters near their home and the practicalities of getting there with 3 small children. When the mum went back for a few days it unfortunately coincided with the reprisals for the attack on the Kerch bridge and she ended up spending a lot of her visit in an underground car park. His university has only partially gone back to face to face teaching because there are no shelters on campus so large numbers of staff have refused on the grounds they can’t guarantee the safety of the students as well as themselves.
I suppose some people might say that she should stay in England in her own with the kids and he should go back.
Anyway we’ll see how things are looking by next spring. A lot could change in terms of the safety of the northern areas as well as the front lines in the south and east.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Russia demands concessions https://kyivindependent.com/erdogan-fails-to-broker-restoration-of-black-sea-grain-deal-in-sochi/ to relaunch grain deal. Russia will only rejoin the initiative once sanctions related to Russian grain and fertilizers for European markets would be lifted, Putin said.

⚡️Reznikov: Russia's war costs https://kyivindependent.com/reznikov-russias-war-costs-ukraine-100-million-daily/ Ukraine $100 million daily.
Ukraine spends around $100 million of state funds daily to defend itself against Russia’s full-scale war, soon-to-be former Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov told state-run media outlet Ukrinform.

⚡️NYT: Kim Jong Un to visit https://kyivindependent.com/nyt-kim-jong-un-to-visit-russia-for-arms-deal-with-putin/ Russia for arms deal with Putin.
North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un plans to visit Russia this month to discuss supplying Moscow with more weapons for its war in Ukraine, the New York Times reported on Sept. 4.

⚡️Moscow closes airports.
Russian media reported that airspace over Moscow was closed the night of Sept. 5. Flights have been canceled at Domodedovo, Vnukovo, and Sheremetyevo airports.

⚡️German MP: Scholz is blocking https://kyivindependent.com/german-mp-scholz-alone-is-blocking-taurus-transfers/ Taurus missiles transfer to Ukraine.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is the only person blocking the decision within the governing coalition to send Taurus missiles to Ukraine, German MP Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann wrote on Twitter on Sept. 4.

⚡️Media: Belgium buys Sea Sparrow missiles https://kyivindependent.com/media-belgium-buys-sea-sparrow-missiles-from-germany-to-deliver-to-ukraine/ from Germany to deliver to Ukraine.
The Belgian Defense Ministry has bought a stock of short-range Sea Sparrow missiles from Germany and plans to deliver more than half to Ukraine, the Belgian newspaper L'Echo reported on Sept. 4.

⚡️Official: Latvian aid to Ukraine stalled https://kyivindependent.com/official-latvian-aid-to-ukraine-stalled-by-poor-transit-infrastructure/**by poor transit infrastructure.
In a roundtable discussion with European Union (EU) ministers on Sept. 4, Latvian Transportation Minister Jānis Vītenbergs said that inadequate transportation infrastructure between his country and Ukraine has delayed aid deliveries, the news outlet Delfi reported.

⚡️Bucharest denies https://kyivindependent.com/kyiv-claims-russian-drones-detonated-in-romania-bucharest-says-no-direct-threat-posed/ Kyiv's claim that Russian drones fell in Romania.

Ragnar Gudmundsson
WAR IN #UKRAINE - SEP 5
■ More strikes, fewer engagements
■ Troop losses up, biggest artillery losses since Jul 18
■ Oryx: +20, +18- ratios unchanged
■ Poternet: +132KIA identified
■ Area gains: +88 km²

..... 38 artillery destroyed and 6 MLRS!

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-4-2023

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian light infantry has advanced to positions beyond anti-tank ditches and dragon’s teeth anti-tank obstacles that comprise the current Russian defensive layer ahead of the Ukrainian advance in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and Ukrainian forces likely intend to hold those positions. ISW is not prepared to assess that Ukrainian forces have breached this Russian defensive layer in the absence of observed Ukrainian heavy equipment in these areas.
• Russian forces reportedly attempted to expand minefields in southern Ukraine following the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in June.
• Limitations on Russian artillery capabilities and Ukrainian advantages in counter-battery fire are forcing the Russians to deviate from their own doctrine, RUSI reported.
• Russian forces conducted a drone strike on Dnipropetrovsk and Odesa oblasts on the night of September 3-4.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated Russia’s unwillingness to rejoin the Black Sea Grain Initiative until all of Russia’s extensive terms are met at a meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
• Head of the UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine Erik Mose stated on September 4 that the commission has not yet concluded that Russia is committing genocide in Ukraine. [How useless is this UN? What more evidence do they need?]
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas on September 4.
• Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations and advanced near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 4.
• Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced on September 4 that the Russian military will not be holding “Zapad-2023” joint strategic exercises scheduled for September.
• Russian occupation officials continued the fifth day of early voting for Russian regional elections in occupied territories on September 4.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

Xi Jinping will not personally attend the G20 meeting in India. Instead, Prime Minister Li Qiang will represent China's interests at the summit.
US President Joe Biden said he was disappointed that Xi Jinping would not attend the G20 summit, but added that he was going to "meet him".
"I'm disappointed... but I'm going to meet him visa versa," Biden told reporters, according to Reuters.

❗️Serbia distributes its passports en masse to Russians
The European Union leadership has expressed concern over Serbia's decision to grant its citizenship to Russians in large numbers through an accelerated procedure. Reports from SchengenVisaInfo.com indicate that Russians holding Serbian passports can now travel to the EU without the need for a visa, raising security concerns.

❗️The UN's independent international commission did not come to the conclusion that genocide is taking place in Ukraine. Its head, Erik Møse, says there is no evidence that meets the legal qualification of the Genocide Convention. [because children aren't being kidnapped, Ukrainians aren't being killed, Russia hasn't said Ukraine should be exterminated, and serious mental and physical harm hasn't been visited on Ukrainians because they are Ukrainian. Or something.]

I call on Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan to join NATO. Only a joint and rapid accession can ensure long-term peace in the South Caucasus, said Gunter Fehlinger, head of the European Committee on NATO Enlargement.
Fehlinger also expressed confidence that Ukraine and Moldova should join the Alliance next year.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine have successfully damaged key bridges in the southern region of the country, which the occupiers relied on for transporting ammunition and equipment. This was conveyed by Nataliya Humenyuk, the head of the United Coordination Press Center of the Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine, during a briefing.
"...the damage inflicted on these bridges has reduced their capacity, particularly for transporting heavy equipment, weapons, and ammunition. Currently, they can only be used for the transportation of personnel. However, in most cases, the M-17 route remains the primary conduit..."

⚡️On the southern front, Ukrainian troops are making progress in the direction of Novoprokopivka
According to the spokesman of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Pavlo Kovalchuk, the Defense Forces continue their offensive in the direction of Melitopol.

By the end of the year, Belgium will additionally deliver about 320 Volvo army trucks and 80 Iveco Lynx armored vehicles to Ukraine.
Before that, Belgium had already handed over 150 Volvo N10 trucks.

A drone with artificial intelligence is already performing combat tasks in the Armed Forces of Ukraine
This is reported by the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. "SAKER software, built on the basis of artificial intelligence algorithms, will help our troops beat the enemy more effectively," the message said.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has announced that the heads of the Central Banks of Türkiye and Russia will engage in discussions to explore measures related to settling transactions in their respective national currencies. This move aims to enhance economic cooperation and trade between the two countries.

Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin has announced that the city is harnessing its full scientific and technological capabilities to assist air defense efforts and the Ministry of Defense in safeguarding the city and its residents against unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) attacks.

An outbreak of cholera following the incident at the Kakhovka Hydro Power Plant (HPP) has been successfully averted, as stated by Ukraine's Chief State Sanitary Doctor, Ihor Kuzin.

The International Swimming Federation allowed athletes from Russia and Belarus to participate in competitions in a neutral status.

The President of the International Olympic Committee (IOC), Thomas Bach, has indicated that the IOC may permit athletes from Russia and Belarus to participate in the 2024 Olympics in a neutral status

Pope Francis clarified that he referred to Russia as "great" due to its rich cultural heritage.
"I used the term 'great' in reference to Russia not in a purely geographical sense, but rather in a cultural sense. I was reminded of what I learned in school about figures like Peter I and Catherine II. My intention was to acknowledge and draw attention to this cultural legacy," explained the pontiff. [ah yes, Peter the Great who carried out massive expansion wars and tortured and killed his own son].

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz showed what he looks like after falling while jogging on September 2. “Can't wait to see the memes. Thank you for the good wishes, it looks worse than it is," the chancellor writes on the social network.

https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/documents/Genocide%20Convention-FactSheet-ENG.pdf
UN definition of genocide:

DEFINITION OF GENOCIDE IN THE CONVENTION:
The current definition of Genocide is set out in Article II of the Genocide
Convention:
Genocide means any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in
whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such:
(a) Killing members of the group;
(b) Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group;
(c) Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated
to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part;
(d) Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group;
(e) Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group

Live: Ukraine Telegram

A Ka-52 helicopter crashed in the Sea of Azov, according to Russian media.
It is also reported that both pilots survived.

The European Union plans to take advantage of the absence of Xi Jinping and Putin at the G20 summit in India to approve the African Union's application for permanent membership in the G20. Bloomberg writes (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-05/eu-seizes-on-putin-and-xi-s-g-20-summit-absence-to-engage-with-africa?srnd=premium-europe) about this, citing sources.
This will give the African Union the same status as the EU, which means more voting rights. The G20 countries want to improve relations with Africa amid its rapprochement with China and Russia.

The New York Times writes https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/04/world/europe/general-sergei-surovikin-russia.html** that Russian General Sergei Surovikin, detained after the Wagner PMC mutiny, has been released. He was previously believed to be in custody.

❗️SBU conducts more than 20 searches in some regions of Ukraine in case of alleged abuses in restoration of energy infrastructure - SBU press service

Corruption in Ukraine hinders arms supplies by Western countries, - Lithuanian President Nausėda
"This is a very important reason. Since the countries that support Ukraine are democratic states, they must take into account the mood of their society and the opinion of their voters. Imagine that the voters see that the country to which the aid is directed is experiencing very visible corruption scandals. This is a huge blow to the reputation of this state."

Russia reports an attempted drone attack on Putin's residence in the Tver region. The moment the drone was destroyed over the village of Zavidovo, where it is located, was caught on video.

The Russian military pilot who defected to Ukraine has received a $500,000 reward for a Mi-8 helicopter. He is under tight security by the Ukrainian intelligence services GUR and SBU, as he faces an assassination threat from Putin.

Saker Scout artificial intelligence unmanned aerial vehicle system.

Update with details of Robotyne / Verbove / Novopropovoke area

correction on placename in my previous (I tried my best to type as I heard it, and noticed the correct name too late to correct)
Novopropovoke Novoprokopivka

Samuel Ramani at samramani2
Russian MP Leonid Slutsky says that the "Ukrofuhrer" Zelensky will get a "dead donkey" and not Crimea back

Russia is reacting hysterically to Zelensky's new Crimean Tatar Defence Minister

Dead equines as threats, where have we heard that before?

Ukrainian Front AT front_ukrainian
Russian military bloggers write that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have resumed their offensive on Novodonets'ke and Novodonets'ke.

They write that the Armed Forces of Ukraine pulled up additional reserves and, under the cover of artillery fire, were able to overcome minefields and land an amphibious assault on the outskirts of Novodonets'ke and neighboring Novomaiors'ke, where heavy fighting is currently taking place.

They also write that as a result of active Ukrainian artillery work, their minefields have lost their effectiveness. And that their sappers cannot restore minefields due to the high activity of Ukrainian artillery.

Minefields no longer effective...

They also write that as a result of active Ukrainian artillery work, their minefields have lost their effectiveness. And that their sappers cannot restore minefields due to the high activity of Ukrainian artillery.

Cluster munitions, fired repeatedly at the same area, are pretty good at demining. They're also good at preventing remining.