Ukraine Invasion: Part 44

[MagicFox]

44th thread, all the usual thanks and appreciation

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That was my thought - they are working...

They're also good at preventing remining.

@MissConducUS why is this?

It is my view cluster munitions fired at batteries of 6-8 guns have an excellent amelioration rate. It is no coincidence that Russian artillery losses have increased significantly since cluster bombs were introduced. There is an exponential effect in using them. Light guns will form the majority or movable artillery in these types of battle. Simple in design, they can continue in use for 70 plus years. But they have no ‘exoskeleton’ so sights, breech mechanisms, recoil systems, springs are all exposed to external attacks. Six well placed rounds in the right places can level a village. Two rounds of cluster bombs can take out a small battalion of light artillery permanently.

Meant to add this is in addition to @MissConducUS point about cluster bombs setting off mines.

Where is your ‘T’ these days by the way?

Because once the minefield has been "zeroed in" by artillery, it's easy to hit it again with more cluster munitions. So if a drone observes Russian sappers trying to place new mines in a minefield, they get hit again with more cluster munitions. This is very bad for the sapper's morale and combat effectiveness.

Correct. They also do a fine job of killing or severely wounding the gun crews.

Blimey, some vatnik troll must have nicked my t. 😂

This is a British-based thread. You're not allowed to lose your Tea.

Just as well you're not British. God help anyone who nicks an Englishmans tea.

I’m so confused, do we have an imposter amongst us!?

Fuck me, I’ve been around here since the year dot and I didn’t notice that!

I’m a proofreader… 😳🤪

Or dumps it into the harbour

No. Somehow, my name changed in the box above where you type the post. I've changed it back. It wouldn't let me do that if the handle didn't belong to my account.

I'm primarily a coffee drinker. And the colonists had it right. Those taxes on tea just for us were rubbish.

Oh good! Was worried we had been infiltrated but did think the troll was being unusually helpful and inoffensive 😂

Looks like it’s only a temporary fix… glad it’s you, though

Still disturbed how you dropped your T <twilight zone music>

@Errolwasahero But you're offduty here! :)

Bloody MN, so it did! Now I'm going to have to check it every time.

A really good Twitter person, James Rands, does threads occasionally. He's ex military and an analyst and writes in a clear, very sensible style. He doesn't post that often but I can't recommend him highly enough as someone who understands the main elements of what's going on and can communicate them clearly.

There's been talk among the Russians about drawing the Ukrainians into a cauldron .. this is his rebuttal:

James Rands
AT james_rands

The premise is the Russians have given ground to create a “cauldron” https://twitter.com/geromanat/stat

Annoyingly I wrote a decent refutation of this concept but it didn’t load so in short: 1. Being on the Defence reduces your ability to pick and choose where to fight. This the elaborate pre-laid traps seem a bit unlikely. 2. This sort of thing requires a level of operational…

Coordination with which Russia has struggled. 3. This requires trained manpower with a competent junior command element to execute a deliberate withdrawal without it turning into a rout - not something Russia has in abundance. 4. “Fire-sacks” or whatever you want to call them…

Work best when you can concentrate artillery. Russia no longer has artillery superiority. Now some of these are relatively new and others you can argue that they don’t necessarily have to preplan it but adapt failure into a trap. However, there is one enduring issue which stands

Russia has as far as I can see never executed this cauldron manoeuvre in the entirety of the fighting since Feb 2022 - not once In fact quite the opposite. We keep seeing examples of them refusing to cede ground even after it is clear the defence is untenable.

The cauldron is just a fantasy.

(the pic is from the unpleasant Geroman; he thinks this is what's going to happen)

@MissConducUS When I namechanged to DanceswithDucks the name change didn't actually stick until the new thread. It reverted to DucksofWar ... there must be some bug going on with renaming.

A typical New Yorker, in other words. 😁

It's being stated that Russia has committed reserves to the Robotyne front. But by the sound of it, at least some of them had ALREADY arrived by Friday. It's been speculated that Ukraine by that point had already taken the heights (with the Russians running away) and secured positions. But crucially since Friday, they've continued to make progress. This could be a trap, but this doesn't make sense either. Not when this means they are concentrating their own troops, and thus leaving them vulnerable to being taken out on mass. Not when, in committing reserves, Russia are leaving gaps elsewhere as troops are transferred. The rumor mill today seems to suggest that Ukrainian offensive moves elsewhere are being conducted - with the Russians complaining about minefields no long being effective. In that particular section of the front, it was mentioned that vehicles were being used by the Ukrainians - unlike nr the Robotyne front.

If there is a caldron you need to consider whether your own troops with suffer greater attrition rates than the enemy. And whether you can implement a caldron without weakening your front to the point that they can take advantage of. The caldron theory fails on both points.

The Ukrainians running riot on foot behind defence lines, also means they can't go far. It's not like making an advance too far then getting caught out. Infantry on foot have a much more limited range.

As someone pointed out yesterday - Ukraine having reached these strategically significant points poses a problem for Russia. How on earth do they spin lost ground in Russia at this point?

"Our brave forces defending the Motherland and liberating Ukraine from the Nazis are strategically regrouping preparatory to a new assault on XXX. We will move forward here in the same way as we are near Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna and Avdiivka. Our soldiers are fighting tirelessly for the Motherland. Heros all!"