Ukraine Invasion: Part 44

[MagicFox]

44th thread, all the usual thanks and appreciation

**

--

1. Agreed thread guidance:

1. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

1. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

1. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

Live: Ukraine Telegram

[Clip] Ukranian sapper finds a booby trapped landmine
Footage shows how Russians are placing live hand grenades with the pin pulled buried underneath anti-tank mines.

❗️Kyiv police received a bomb threat at all secondary schools and colleges. The police and the State Emergency Service went to the sites to check them.
The last time a massive bomb threat was reported was on September 1. Back then, no explosives were found in the schools.

Poland starts extraditing men who illegally left the country to Ukraine - Rzeczpospolita

Airplane and tyres

In August, the Ukrainian Defense Forces liberated almost 46 square kilometers in the Tauride direction, destroying 1,700 Russians and 125 ammunition depots. [This hasn't been heard of before]

Russians have started deploying Pantsir SAM systems on towers in the Moscow area to counter Ukrainian drone attacks.

@DancesWithDucks Are those hardware loss figures the ones from yesterday?

An unusual aspect of the Russian air force is they do not use any form of shelter or camouflage for aircraft on bases.

Yes, they were yesterday's Russian losses. The figures are released around 10am / 11 CET generally. Occasionally they miss a day.

The losses released yesterday were 30 artillery and 34 vehicles ... honestly, the numbers are so high at the moment.

What isn't known is the Ukrainian losses, but if they are no longer exempting people with cured TB (can still have lung damage) etc then I'm wondering if Ukraine is struggling hard for recruits.

[Edited for readability]

True to some extent - NATO Air forces (generally) have over the years built large numbers of hardened shelters for their smaller aircraft..OTOH for their larger aircraft types that's not been possible so it's not unusual to see large numbers of transport/larger bomber types parked up in the open around airfields, much like you see the Russians do.

Where the Russians airfields are unusual is you don't usually see any form of "soft" hangars that could be used for shelter a few airframes, even for maintenance purposes.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-3-2023

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian military officers offered notably frank and direct commentary about the prospects of further Ukrainian advances in western Zaporizhia Oblast and indicated that the series of prepared Russian defensive positions immediately ahead and further south of the Ukrainian advance may be less challenging to Ukrainian forces.
• Ukrainian military officials particularly noted that advancing Ukrainian forces can operate more freely in areas with sparser Russian minefields.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations and advanced near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 3.
• Several Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continue to operate on the left (east) bank of the Dnipro River in occupied Kherson Oblast.
• Russian forces conducted a series of drone strikes targeting Ukrainian port infrastructure in Odesa Oblast on September 3.
• The Russian military appears to be recruiting personnel at scale through ongoing crypto-mobilization efforts, although the quality and allocation of these new servicemembers remain unclear.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in western Donetsk, in the western Donetsk–eastern Zaporizhia border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas on September 3.
• Russian law enforcement is patrolling and guarding polling stations in occupied Ukraine to prevent citizens from expressing opposition to the elections and recording the voting process.

What isn't known is the Ukrainian losses, but if they are no longer exempting people with cured TB (can still have lung damage) etc then I'm wondering if Ukraine is struggling hard for recruits.
I suppose there is a possibility that there are people who have eg cured TB who want to serve and are currently not being allowed to. I say this as I recall reading a memoir from WWII in which a bloke had an absolute shitting fit at being turned down for some special ops because he had glasses.

What if the Russians have to scramble those aircraft. Isn't it a pain to have to remove the tyres first? Then you have to make sure the tyres don't clutter up the run way. Seems messy from my uninformed perspective.

You rarely if ever need to or are able to "scramble" a whole airfields worth of aircraft, and very very very rare to need to scramble a "heavy" at minutes notice, I've only known of it being done in one or two specialist roles and the aircraft were pre-prepared, ready to go, not sat "cold"...

But in general terms yes, before any flying ideally the tyres would have to come off and be stored carefully...mind you one technique the Russians have used for clearing snow off airframes is to taxi quickly/let it blow off on takeoff.. 🙄

There's also another techie issue lurking - whether loading the wings up with lots of tyres might actually cause structural damage unless it's done in a considered/controlled manner...we can hope.

@notimagain thanks for the explanation. That makes sense. Hopefully Russians will try to do something stupid and damage their aircraft.

Another thought. Even if heavy craft are rarely scrambled in minutes for service, would a bunch of them have to fly off pretty sharpish if say a host of Ukrainian drones are spotted to be heading for the airfield, in order to protect the assets? Tyres might make them sitting ducks [hopeful emoticon]

There was a article DH had seen a couple of weeks ago which said that Ukraine was running out of men.

It could get interesting if men start getting extraded back from EU countries. I know of a number of blokes who came to the UK on exceedingly dubious medical exemptions. Too sick to enlist, but working just fine driving HGVs in the UK. Given the logistics challenges for Ukraine, I've always thought it odd.

One option that will not have escaped Ukraine is the engagement of PMCs. Though not ideal from a geo-political position, PMCs operating genuinely independently could fulfil some support roles in the Ukraine army and air defence capability. This would free up some of the Ukranian military for front line rolls. Other options may be exhausted first.

Yep the tyres certainly would complicate getting airborne in a hurry.

I know it certainly was very hard/labour intensive to keep very large numbers of aircraft and crews on a particular airfield ready to go at a few minutes notice in case of attack of some sort...you could maybe do it very briefly, as in for a few days, if on a full war footing, but maintaining that state for over a year into a three day Special Military Operation??

Safest option for the Russians is to improve their Airfield Air Defence, and/or make the parking more random/less predictable, or move the targeted assets out of drone range...

Roles, sorry. I was eating the other kind as I was typing.

the issue the Russians have, is nowhere is out of range of drones, since cheap drones with a range of 5km can destroy a $$$ bomber or heavy lifter, if launched by saboteurs in the locality.

Thanks, notimagain. Appreciate the insight.

I've been off the thread for a couple of days, so apologies if this has already been reported. The Ukrainians estimate that the Russians put 60% of the effort into building the first defensive lines, vs. 20% each to the secondary and tertiary lines. If this is correct, and I've no reason to doubt it, there will be gaps to be exploited. The fact that NATO-supplied tanks and AFVs have been spotted in direct combat with the Russians supports the hypothesis that this has already started happening.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/02/everything-is-ahead-of-us-ukraine-breaks-russias-first-line-of-defence-in-stronghold

Observations of patterns of artillery fire also support the existence of gaps in the Russian lines that are being exploited.

https://twitter.com/TimInHonolulu/status/1697149138398531960?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1697149140638335053%7Ctwgr%5Ec297039041230ee692310b4adc0a95aac57765ce%7Ctwcon%5Es2_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstories%2F2023%2F9%2F3%2F2191381%2F-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-558-the-next-series-of-Russian-defensive-positions-may-be-less-challenging

I'm waiting patiently for the Abrams M1A1s to arrive later this month. 😁They've been cleared for shipment from Germany.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-m1a1-abrams-tanks-approved-for-shipment

Unconfirmed reports of mass Russian surrender at Kleshcheevka South of Bakhmut

That's a hilltop settlement with extensive fortifications, overlooking Bakhmut.

There are also reports that the Ukrainians have captured HIll 166 and Hill 161, near Verbove, and that the Russians withdrew, leaving artillery behind.

Having the high ground will make things hell for the Russians, as it did at the Battle of Vuhledar.

https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/ukraine-war-4-september-2023

It's a good idea, if the economy can stand the strain - don't suppose they come cheap at all. But they would be extra manpower.

I don't suppose they'd ever hire Wagner tho. That would be really ironic.

The shortage of men... the 4 men I personally know of who are now in the UK (one in France) all came out of Kherson, via Russia, to evade forced conscription by the enemy. They now work and send money and important parcels for their families and the military and this is their war effort. However, I do often wonder how they really feel about being safe whilst their fellow men lay their lives down. I also wonder how they will be received when they eventually go home, will there be division or a class system of sorts for example? Who knows. I cannot judge. If DH and I had endured enemy occupation and gone through the Russian filtration centre, I think I'd stay away for as long as possible as well.

The Ukraine economy has two choices. In any event, the US, UK, Europe will take payment on deferred terms. This is how Gulf War 1 was conducted. Ambush billing for want of a better term.

There's lots of rumours about this. They started yesterday, but before that there was a report about two Russian groups running away from the hills. So it wouldn't surprise me if Ukraine had taken Hill 166. However I've still not seen anything trustworthy / concrete to confirm this.

Suggestion seems to be that it was probably Friday they took it. Which I do think would match with timescales.

I am still taking it with a pinch of salt at this point, but from where they were and what was happening, it seems probable.