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Ukraine Invasion: Part 44

981 replies

MagicFox · 20/08/2023 12:43

44th thread, all the usual thanks and appreciation

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341
MissConducUS · 29/08/2023 20:42

The Russian invaders launched an airstrike in the Verbove area, Zaporizhzhya region.

Generally, the best way to tell when Ukraine has gained control of an area is when the Russians bomb or shell it.

RedToothBrush · 29/08/2023 21:26

Rob Lee AT RALee85 is retweeting geolocated strike by Russia drone on Ukrainian infantry. It's right by the main defence line close to Verbove.

He's saying it's not clear if Ukraine managed to retain the position, but it does confirm they've reached the line at this point too now. It depends on what Russia has beyond that point in Verbove.

Rob Lee is also suggesting they may need to take Novoprokopivka first to protect their flank if they do advance.

(Worth pointing out there are two towns in the vicinity with very similar names which appears to be causing some confusion - Novopokrovka North and slightly East of Verbove and there is a settlement called Novoprokopivka to the West and slightly South of Verbove).

The point is, that there are unlikely to be many Russians running around in the zone between Robotyne and Verbove at this point.

Russian military bloggers are also saying the Ukrainian army have reached the main defense line near Verbove and the Russians are trying to repeal ukrainian attacks there. They report the Ukrainians are trying to bypass the Novoprokopivka fortified trenches from the east.

All of this seems to fit together and is consistent enough to say this is probably about where things currently stand.

minsmum · 29/08/2023 22:14

I saw on Twitter reports that the Russians are leaving Tokmak, not the usual people that I follow so not sure if it's true

TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 29/08/2023 22:33

minsmum · 29/08/2023 22:14

I saw on Twitter reports that the Russians are leaving Tokmak, not the usual people that I follow so not sure if it's true

Seen that as well, more suggesting some of the Russian administrators than a wholesale official evacuation though.
Fingers crossed that will come soon….

RedToothBrush · 29/08/2023 22:37

Also talk of renewed reinforcing the areas around Mariupol and Berdjansk today.

MissConducUS · 29/08/2023 22:41

TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 29/08/2023 22:33

Seen that as well, more suggesting some of the Russian administrators than a wholesale official evacuation though.
Fingers crossed that will come soon….

As I mentioned previously, Tokmak is now within range of Ukrainian tube artillery. If they haven't started shelling it yet, they certainly will soon, as the Russians well know.

MMBaranova · 29/08/2023 22:43

If the attacks on Pskov being reported are true, that's going deep.

TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 29/08/2023 22:56

MMBaranova · 29/08/2023 22:43

If the attacks on Pskov being reported are true, that's going deep.

Where would they have been launched from? Do drones even have the range to have come directly from Ukraine?

RedToothBrush · 29/08/2023 23:02

Ukraine has the range I believe at this point

But 20 miles from the Estonian border is going to raise eyebrows regardless of that. Russian social media is saying they came from Latvia.

Coming from Ukraine, they will have gone over the length of Belarus too.

notimagain · 30/08/2023 00:39

Reports starting to circulate of a another fairly sizeable and widespread attack by Ukrainian UAVs to more targets in Russia this morning.

MissConducUS · 30/08/2023 01:04

Apologies if this has been posted previously. It’s an analysis of the current offensive by a professor at West Point.

https://cepa.org/article/ukraine-victory-is-closer-than-you-think/

The one comment I would make is that having the CLOCs within range of tube artillery is greatly preferable to just having them within HIMARS range. They can do a much higher volume of fire on the roads and rails with tube artillery, especially now that they have an abundant supply of artillery deployed cluster munitions. Those will really stop traffic.

Ukraine — Victory Is Closer Than You Think

Ukraine’s counteroffensive is making substantial progress. Russia’s generals will know this, even if the West doesn’t.

https://cepa.org/article/ukraine-victory-is-closer-than-you-think/

MissConducUS · 30/08/2023 01:12

Sorry, just noticed the typo, CLOCs should be GLOCs, ground lines of communication (roads and railroad lines and infrastructure).

blueshoes · 30/08/2023 01:46

@MissConducUS thanks for the link to the CEPA article. That is encouraging. It is slow grinding progress by Ukraine but they need only another 7-10 km to reach Russia's GLOCS. Hope I am reading that right.

Slava Ukraini.

TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 30/08/2023 08:15

Thanks for the positive article.
Interesting about the Russian use of civilian lorries. I can imagine them forcing civilians to continue driving into dangerous areas but all that would do is buy them a little more time before the route becomes completely unusable.

DancesWithDucks · 30/08/2023 10:25

Not good news for the Russians with the reported losses today. Today 44 vehicles & fuel tanks, yesterday 43. Another 50 artillery gone in the last 2 days too.

Plus it's claimed 6 transport planes were damaged last night in the attack on Pskov, though that's to be confirmed.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 44
Ukraine Invasion: Part 44
blueshoes · 30/08/2023 11:04

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-29-2023

Key Takeaways:

  • Ukrainian forces advanced near Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast and Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 29.
  • Russian sources continued to express concerns over Russian vulnerabilities in eastern and western Zaporizhia Oblast.
  • Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and reported Wagner logistics and security head Valery Chekalov were buried on August 29 in St. Petersburg in separate cemeteries, likely to prevent the creation of a single pilgrimage site that would establish the deceased Wagner members as martyrs.
  • Russian milbloggers accused the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) for the fifth consecutive day of attempting to conceal concerns over the mistreatment of a Southern Military District (SMD) brigade operating in occupied Kherson Oblast.
  • These milblogger persistent complaints are likely an attempt to spark command changes that may favor Russian Airborne Forces Commander Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky, who reportedly oversees Russian forces in southern Ukraine.
  • The Russian MoD may be reverting to more limited coverage of the war in Ukraine while attempting to censor complaints along the frontline and reports of Ukrainian advances.
  • The United States State Department announced a new military aid package for Ukraine on August 29.
  • The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that the Kremlin is currently focused on promoting five main information operations against Ukraine, all of which ISW has observed.
  • Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast administrative border area but did not make confirmed advances.
  • The UK Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported on August 29 that the Russian MoD is still unlikely to meet its targets for volunteer recruitment, despite offering incentives such as high salaries and additional social benefits.
  • Ukrainian sources reported that occupation authorities continue to forcibly deport Ukrainian children from occupied Ukraine to Russia.

No update from Defence Intelligence.

RedToothBrush · 30/08/2023 11:36

UKRAINE HAVE BREACHED

Def Mon reposted
GeoConfirmed AT GeoConfirmed
GeoConfirmed UKR [CO] - BREACH - Tokmak Axis. Russian Artillery (100th Sep. Recon BDE) shelling Ukrainians BEHIND the first Surovikin Defense line near #Verbove. The 82nd Air Assault Brigade has breached. 47.44189, 35.95220 Geolocation by ATmoklasen

Unclear as yet as to whether they have been able to hold the position.

Significant either way.

blueshoes · 30/08/2023 11:46

WSJ report on Pskov airbase and other strikes in Russia.

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/ukrainian-drones-strike-deep-inside-russia-hitting-military-airfield-other-targets-e42ca54

It is behind a paywall, so copying it below.

Ukrainian Drones Strike Deep Inside Russia, Hitting Military Airfield, Other Targets
As Kyiv disables four Russian planes, Moscow launches a missile barrage on the Ukrainian capital

Ukraine launched its largest drone attack on military targets across Russia since the war began, disabling four military aircraft in a strike on the Pskov air base, as Moscow unleashed the most sustained missile barrage on the Ukrainian capital in months.

While Ukraine lacks the long-range cruise and ballistic missiles that Russia frequently fires into Ukrainian cities, destroying power stations, hotels, ports and residential buildings, Kyiv has developed an increasingly efficient force of domestically engineered strike drones that can travel several hundred miles into Russia.

Several dozen such drones were launched overnight, heading to the Moscow, Kaluga, Orel, Ryazan, Bryansk and Pskov regions, in addition to Russian-occupied Crimea, according to Russian officials. While most of these drones were shot down, the attack on Pskov, more than 400 miles from Ukraine [wow, bet them Russians did not see that coming], proved successful.

Four Il-76 military transport aircraft were hit on the Pskov airfield, and the city’s civilian airport shut down for the day, according to state news agency TASS. Footage posted by Russian media showed at least two planes ablaze and thick plumes of smoke engulfing the facility. Local media reported that a nearby base of Russian special forces was also struck. There were no reports of casualties. Ukraine hasn’t commented on the drone attacks.

In Kyiv, two security guards at an industrial facility were killed in the Russian barrage, according to the city’s military administration, and a fire erupted in a shopping mall as a result of falling debris. “Kyiv has not suffered from such a powerful attack since the spring,” said the administration’s head, Serhiy Popko. Ukraine’s military said all 28 cruise missiles and 15 out of 16 Shahed drones were shot down by air defenses nationwide.

Lacking modern jet fighters of its own and barred by the U.S. and allies from using Western-provided weapons on Russian soil, Ukraine has turned to drones to dent Russia’s overwhelming superiority in aircraft. Over the past year, Kyiv has likely disabled more Russian planes at their home bases in Russia than in combat, according to military analysts.

On Aug. 19, a Ukrainian drone strike destroyed at least one Russian supersonic Tu-22M3 bomber, the kind of aircraft that is used to fire cruise missiles at Ukraine, in the Soltsy base in northern Russia’s Novgorod region. Two other Russian airfields were attacked by Ukrainian drones in the past two days, according to Russian military bloggers. Last year, Ukrainian drones destroyed Russian strategic bombers in Ryazan and Engels, while a Ukrainian missile strike caused the loss of several jets at the main Russian naval aviation base in Crimea.

Drone attacks on the Moscow region have also become commonplace. While they have resulted in limited direct damage, Russian aviation authorities have been temporarily shutting down air traffic in Moscow airports almost every morning in recent weeks, causing dozens of flights to be diverted to other cities. Another such shutdown occurred Wednesday.

In the city of Bryansk, one of the Ukrainian drones hit the compound of Kremniy El, one of Russia’s largest producers of microelectronics used in missiles and other weapons, causing a fire, according to local media. Hours later, another Ukrainian drone hit near the TV tower in the city. In the Kaluga region, a Ukrainian drone struck a fuel storage facility, causing a fire, according to the local governor.

RedToothBrush · 30/08/2023 11:54

NoelReports AT NOELreports
Heavy fighting is happening near Verbove, both Russian and Ukrainian sources report. Initial reports suggest that the AFU is entering the western outskirts of the settlement.

Emil Kastehelmi AT emilkastehelmi
Ukraine has breached the first Russian main defensive line, as known as the Surovikin line, in the direction of Verbove. The village is integrated to the Russian defenses, and it's not clear if Ukraine tries to push inside the village, or are they just widening the flanks.

Ukrainians were geolocated to the outskirts of Verbove, at 47.44189, 35.95220. That's well behind the anti-tank obstacles and first trenches. It's not yet clear how extensively the line has actually been breached, and if this is just reconnaissance operations.

It's important to note that this is not an actual breakthrough yet - the progress is still local, and there has not been a rapid collapse of Russian defences. On the other side, this isn't looking good for the Russians - Ukrainians continue attacking, despite difficulties.

Also, there is possibly some Ukrainian success south of Urozhaine. Our team is looking into that, we'll get back to this later if we manage to geolocate this video.

Surprisingly, I'm feeling a bit optimism instead of constant doomerism. Things may develop in a positive direction for Ukraine, but it's still too early to say anything final.

notimagain · 30/08/2023 12:02

@blueshoes

Thanks for the info from WSJ re the UAV attacks on Russia.

It was interesting to see last night's attacks unfold....IMO whilst the ranges involved are significant so is the apparent accuracy of at least some of the strikes.

RedToothBrush · 30/08/2023 12:22

notimagain · 30/08/2023 12:02

@blueshoes

Thanks for the info from WSJ re the UAV attacks on Russia.

It was interesting to see last night's attacks unfold....IMO whilst the ranges involved are significant so is the apparent accuracy of at least some of the strikes.

I've seen talk of how Ukrainian drones are going to make this winter in Russia very cold and very dark. Something of a payback for what Russian did to Ukraine last winter.

notimagain · 30/08/2023 12:28

@RedToothBrush

I've seen talk of how Ukrainian drones are going to make this winter in Russia very cold and very dark. Something of a payback for what Russian did to Ukraine last winter.

I know it's wrong to wish harm and unpleasantness on any civil population but I think I'd be struggling to have much sympathy if that's the case.

DancesWithDucks · 30/08/2023 13:05

In Russia, the harmonisation of time was discussed, with all 9 time zones moving to a common time. The Prime Minister went to see Putin
"Mr President, we have a problem. I sent my family on a holiday and when I called to say good night, it was already morning and my family was on the beach. And when I called Olav Scholz to congratulate him on his wedding day he said it was tomorrow."
"I know the feeling, I called Prigozhin's wife to offer my condolences on her husband's accident. And the plane hadn't even taken off yet."

DancesWithDucks · 30/08/2023 13:20

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Ukrainian authorities: Russia preparing https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-authorities-russia-preparing-new-wave-of-mobilization-in-occupied-crimea/ new wave of mobilization in occupied Crimea.
The Russian military plans to mobilize up to 30,000 people and call up 10,000 previously conscripted soldiers in occupied Crimea, the Mission of Ukraine’s President in Crimea reported on Aug. 28.

⚡️ Bloomberg: Putin to visit China in first trip abroad since his arrest warrant. https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-putin-to-visit-china-in-first-trip-abroad-since-his-arrest-warrant/ The Kremlin's leader has reportedly accepted the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping to attend the Belt and Road Forum in October, the outlet said.

⚡️ US announces $250 million in military aid for Ukraine https://kyivindependent.com/us-announces-250-million-in-military-aid-for-ukraine/ including AIM-9M missiles, HIMARS munitions, Javelin systems, and other aid, and 155mm and 105mm artillery ammunition, mine-clearing equipment, various anti-tank systems and rockets, over 3 million rounds of small arms ammunition, ambulances, demolition munitions for obstacle clearing, as well as spare parts, services, training, and transportation.

As counteroffensive presses forward in southeast, 'every meter costs a life' https://kyivindependent.com/as-counteroffensive-presses-forward-in-southeast-every-meter-costs-a-life/ [bloody hell, that's a lot of lives :( ]

⚡️Drone attack destroys https://kyivindependent.com/drone-attack-destroys-4-military-aircraft-in-pskov-oblast-russia-claims/ 4 military aircraft in Pskov Oblast, Russia claims. The dual-use military/civilian airport is closed for the rest of the 30th August.

Biggest drone attack on Russia, Crimea reported. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attack-on-kyiv-and-surrounding-region-kills-two-injures-six/

Ukrainian air defense destroyed 15 of the 16 Shahed kamikaze drones and all 28 of the Kh-101, Kh-55, and Kh-555 missiles, according to the Air Force. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-destroys-43-out-of-44-russian-missiles-and-drones-overnight/

An Mi-8 helicopter belonging to Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) crashed near Chelyabinsk on Aug. 29, killing three crew members, according to Russian authorities. https://kyivindependent.com/helicopter-belonging-to-russias-fsb-crashes-in-chelyabinsk-region/ [well that's 3 less soulless bastards]

⚡️Japanese PM, Zelensky discuss grain exports https://kyivindependent.com/japanese-pm-and-zelensky-discuss-grain-exports-and-peace-formula-in-phone-call/ and peace formula in phone call.

⚡️Spiegel: German company under investigation https://kyivindependent.com/spiegel-german-businessman-selling-drone-components-to-russia/ for selling drone components to Russia.

⚡️UNICEF: Only third of Ukrainian children https://kyivindependent.com/unicef-some-ukrainian-children-face-fourth-year-of-online-schooling/ can attend schools in person.
United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) published a report on Aug. 28, highlighting that some Ukrainian children are facing their fourth year of online schooling ahead of the start of the new school year on Sep. 1.

⚡️ Moscow court rejects Girkin's appeal against arrest. https://kyivindependent.com/moscow-court-rejects-girkins-appeal-against-arrest/

⚡️ Czechia investigates Raiffeisen Bank due to its activities in Russia.
https://kyivindependent.com/czechia-investigates-raiffeisen-bank-due-to-its-russia-activities/

Mine explosion kills farmer https://kyivindependent.com/mine-explosion-kills-farmer-in-kherson-oblast/ in Kherson Oblast. The farmer was cultivating a field when his tractor hit the mine left behind by the Russian army, according to the Kherson Oblast authorities.

⚡️NABU: Former Odesa mayor, local businessmen charged over misappropriation of communal property.
Ukrainian law enforcement has discovered a scheme where local officials and businessmen misappropriated the property and income of the Odesa International Airport. The scheme caused Hr 2.5 billion ($67 million) damage to the city budget, according to the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU). https://kyivindependent.com/nabu-former-odesa-mayor-local-businessmen-charged-over-misappropriation-of-communal-property/

⚡️ SBU detains military medical commission official in Kyiv Oblast for corruption. https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-detains-military-medical-commission-official-for-taking-bribes/

Constitutional Court reform: Will Ukraine implement key condition for EU membership? (kyivindependent.com/constitutional-court-reform-will-ukraine-implement-key-condition-for-eu-membership/)
After being mired in corruption and political scandals for decades, Ukraine’s critically important Constitutional Court is now facing an attempt at reform, although its success is far from guaranteed.
Doubts persist as Ukraine has a poor record of reforming the judiciary. In the past, even the participation of foreign experts did not prevent similar committees from selecting tainted candidates and rejecting the ones with clean reputation.

⚡️SBU: Russian colonel tortured https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-russian-colonel-tortured-civilians-to-death-in-kherson-oblast/ civilians to death in Kherson Oblast.

On Aug. 29, 2014, a devastating flanking attack executed by Russian forces in the eastern town of Ilovaisk resulted in the killing of hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers and volunteers.
Russia once again demonstrated its pattern of broken promises by reneging on its commitment to allow Ukrainian soldiers to escape the encirclement.

UNICEF: Only third of Ukrainian children can attend schools in person

United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) published a report on Aug. 28, highlighting that some Ukrainian children are facing their fourth year of online schooling ahead of the start of the new school year on Sep. 1.

https://kyivindependent.com/unicef-some-ukrainian-children-face-fourth-year-of-online-schooling