Ukraine Invasion: Part 44

[MagicFox]

44th thread, all the usual thanks and appreciation

**

--

1. Agreed thread guidance:

1. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

1. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

1. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

Notimagain, thanks for this link. Ukraine knows what they are doing. Slow and steady wins the race.

Thank you

@BezMills thanks for that video. Great explanation with arrows and graphics of how Ukrainians broke through Russian defences in Robotyne and soon-to-be Novoprokopivka (fingers crossed). Excellent to see thermal de-mining in action.

The destruction by Ukraine of the Russian S-400 air defense system near Olenivka, Crimea on 23 August seems to me like quite a big deal.

I thought the whole point of a state-of-the-art Russian anti-aircraft missile system is to detect and destroy missiles. S-400 could not even detect and destroy a missile coming for it. Major fail. Not only that, to add insult to injury, the entire attack was filmed by a loitering Ukrainian drone nearby. Whatever happened to Russia's vaunted electronic warfare that would allow a drone to capture the spectacular explosion. This happened in Crimea, no less, the grand prize. And and and ... the missile is Ukrainian home grown, believed to be an adapted Neptune anti ship missile, the same Neptune anti-ship missile which took out the Moskva flagship, only better.

If Ukraine can develop its own long range pin point accurate missiles that can evade sophisticated Russian air defence, I suspect Russia will see more of those to come. Slava Ukraini!

I'm glad they have got the thermal de-mining up and running. I remember reading about it as something some Belgians were working on, back in 2020, and an American team even earlier, in 2018 or so, and I had slightly assumed it couldn't have worked as well as expected because I hadn't heard any more about it; now suddenly Ukraine. Good for Ukraine!

And good news, perhaps, for a whole lot of other countries that are no longer the most heavily mined in the world but still have people losing limbs to the evil things when they try to farm their land. 20,000 pointless deaths and maimings a year may no longer happen if this can be used more widely.

Reflecting on Defmon3 was saying about funnelling this all does tie together. You'd expect the Ukrainians to try to clear the area between the defensive lines and broaden the front before attempting an assault.

That's called broadening the salient, and it is the most likely next move for them. Having a long, slender salient leaves you too exposed to an attack on your flanks or rear. The other option would be an attack from another starting point that drives in the same direction, with the goal of merging the two. That's a bit less likely.

I thought the whole point of a state-of-the-art Russian anti-aircraft missile system is to detect and destroy missiles. S-400 could not even detect and destroy a missile coming for it. Major fail. Not only that, to add insult to injury, the entire attack was filmed by a loitering Ukrainian drone nearby.

To be fair, the S-400 is designed and optimized for medium to long range targets. Dealing with missiles coming in 50 meters off the ground is a known weak spot for it. The Russians reportedly had a separate short range system nearby (an SA-22 Greyhound) that also failed to intercept the incoming missile.

The Russians have had a lot of unpleasant surprises on the quality of their air defense kit in this war. It's been a bonanza for Western military intelligence.

Thanks @blueshoes!

Also, thanks @RedToothBrush for the information on Wagner and the ME/Africa. The level of destabilization is extreme, isn't it.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

Russia's Investigative Committee officially confirmed the death of Wagner Group's leaders Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin following a DNA test of their bodies, Russian state-owned news agency RIA Novosti reported on Aug. 27. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-confirms-death-of-prigozhin-and-utkin/

⚡️Russia has concentrated over 100,000 troops in the Kupiansk-Lyman direction of the front in Kharkiv Oblast and Luhansk Oblast, Eastern Force Grouping press officer Illia Yevlash said on Aug. 27. https://kyivindependent.com/eastern-grouping-russia-ramps-up-offensive-towards-lyman-and-kupiansk-with-over-100-000-troops/
These troops have significantly intensified their rate of shelling and airstrikes against Ukrainian positions in Kharkiv and Donetsk oblasts, according to Yevlash.

⚡️UK Defense Ministry: Ukraine, Russia skirmish over strategically important https://kyivindependent.com/uk-defense-ministry-skirmishes-between-ukraine-russia-over-strategically-important-gas-platforms/ Black Sea gas platforms.

⚡️Moscow shuts down 2 airports.
Russian media reported that Moscow shut down Vnukovo and Domodedovo airports on the night of Aug. 28.

⚡️National Resistance Center: Discontent grows https://kyivindependent.com/national-resistance-center-discontent-grows-in-crimea-over-russian-army-draft/ in Crimea over Russian army draft.
According to the Center's sources, Russian-installed authorities conducted a closed survey of local residents asking them their opinions on the military draft. The results, which were not released to the public, show "an extremely negative attitude" toward conscription.

⚡️Russia claims to destroy https://kyivindependent.com/russia-claims-to-destroy-2-drones-cruise-missile-over-crimea/ 2 drones, cruise missile over Crimea.
The Russian Defense Ministry claimed that its air defense forces had destroyed two drones and a cruise missile over the Crimean peninsula on the morning of Aug. 28.

⚡️Governor: 89 children remain https://kyivindependent.com/governor-89-children-remain-in-front-line-settlements-in-donetsk-oblast/ in front-line settlements in Donetsk Oblast. Kyrylenko said local authorities are working to evacuate the children in the coming weeks.

Naftogaz CEO: Ukraine hits autumn gas storage target ahead of upcoming heating season https://kyivindependent.com/naftogaz-ceo-ukraine-hits-autumn-gas-storage-target-with-14-billion-cubic-meters-of-reserves/

⚡️Financial Times: Yandex founder asks https://kyivindependent.com/financial-times-yandex-founder-asks-eu-to-lift-sanctions-after-denouncing-russian-invasion/ EU to lift sanctions after denouncing war.
Arkady Volozh, tech billionaire and co-founder of Russia's popular search engine Yandex, made a formal request for the EU to lift its sanctions against him, the Financial Times reported on Aug. 26. His petition will test how the EU plans to deal with sanctioned individuals who denounce the Kremlin.

⚡️ Zelensky proposes https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-seeks-to-constitute-corruption-in-times-of-war-as-high-treason/* to equate corruption with treason during wartime. *
In a televised interview on Aug. 27, President Volodymyr Zelensky said he has submitted a proposal to parliament to equate corruption with treason while martial law is in effect in Ukraine.
“If there is evidence (of corruption), the person should be behind bars," Zelensky said, noting that he is unsure as to whether lawmakers will support the proposal.

⚡️ Zelensky: Ukraine risks (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-ukraine-may-lose-support-from-big-powers-if-battlefield-moves-to-russian-territory/) losing support from some ‘major powers’ if battlefield moves to Russian territory.
Ukraine risks losing military support from some "major powers" if the battlefield in Russia's war against Ukraine moves to Russian territory, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview on Aug. 27
He said Ukraine is trying to improve its relations with states that both supported Ukraine from the very start of the full-scale invasion and also those at a "historical distance," noting that for the latter group entering Russian territory is a "sore issue."

⚡️Ukrainian athlete Yaroslava Mahuchikh named https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-athlete-yaroslava-mahuchikh-named-world-champion-in-high-jump/ world champion in high jump.
Yaroslava Mahuchikh, a 21-year-old athlete from Dnipro, won the gold medal in high jump at the track-and-field world championships in Budapest on Aug. 27, ESPN reported.

⚡️SBU detains Kherson resident suspected (https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-detains-kherson-resident-suspected-of-working-for-russian-special-services/) of working for Russian special services.
Over the past month, the woman has tracked the whereabouts of Ukrainian forces, trying to determine their approximate number and identify military equipment, the SBU wrote.
Then she allegedly sent Russian special services the gathered information, which Russia has used to carry out regular attacks against Kherson with Grad multiple-launch rocket systems and kamikaze drones.

David Kirichenko: How Ukraine is the leading testing ground for the viability of crypto https://kyivindependent.com/david-kirichenko-how-ukraine-is-the-leading-testing-ground-for-the-viability-of-crypto/
“Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, has cast a spotlight on the emergent role of cryptocurrencies in a modern war zone. In a time of crisis, where conventional financial systems faltered, crypto has emerged as a critical and unexpected ally for Ukraine,“ writes David Kirichenko, a freelance journalist covering Eastern Europe, in his recent op-ed.

Inching forward in Bakhmut counteroffensive, Ukraine’s hardened units look ahead https://kyivindependent.com/inching-forward-in-bakhmut-counteroffensive-ukraines-hardened-units-look-ahead-to-long-grim-war/ to long, grim war

Ragnar Gudmundsson
■ Combat engagements slightly above average
Troop losses slightly above 7-day average as well, equipment below
■ Double-digit artillery & vehicles losses
■ Oryx: 20:10/added to records [Ru:Ukrainian vehicle losses]

Phillips P. OBrien AT PhillipsPOBrien
Now that the Kremlin has confirmed the death of Prigozhin, we can categorically say the decision of the Ukrainians to fight for Bakhmut (which ended up devastating Wagner) was the right choice. For a number of reasons.

1) the losses Wagner suffered led to Prigozhin’s growing split with the Russian military. The longer the campaign lasted the more angry he became, and this led directly to the mutiny attempt. No Bakhmut, no mutiny. The mutiny not only crippled Wagner; it’s weakened Putin.

2) Wagner fought relatively well at Bakhmut, and with some real aggression. If the Ukrainians had abandoned Bakhmut, it would have preserved large number of Wagner forces, allowed them to recruit more, all of whom would be fighting Ukrainians now. Russia would have real reserves.

3) Had Ukraine pulled out of Bakhmut, it would not have sped up the counteroffensive, as clearly the Ukrainians needed all the time possible to train. If anything; it started on the early side in early June. That means Russia would have had more resources to both rest up and help dig in for the counteroffensive.

So, in fighting for Bakhmut, the Ukrainians broke Wagner, helped precipitate the violent breakdown between Prigozhin and Putin, has deprived Russia of a large reserve force now, and deprived Russia of more resources to have dug in. It was a hard choice, but worth it.

Should also add, that in crippling Wagner and helping precipitate the mutiny, fighting for Bakhmut also ended up with Putin strengthening the positions of Shoigu and Gerasimov (who have performed poorly) and getting rid of Surovikin, who seems considerably more competent

Seen some comments that the Ukrainians could not have known this would happen--well of course not. They cant know the future. They decided to do it to cause maximum casualties to the Russians. It was these casualties (intended) which caused the Wagner crisis.

I see some comments that the Ukrainians shouid have pulled out of the town and dug in in the countryside and Wagner would have continued to attack. There is no evidence of this. The Russians wanted to take Bakhmut for politics. Otherwise they were building defensive lines.

Def Mon AT DefMon3 (today)
An overview of units currently involved in fighting in the Robotyne direction. Unit locations are not exact, nor do they represent the location of the entire unit.

I think it's fair to say he general consensus has been the UA advance during this offensive have been slow. But most analysts also agree there is a big unknown factor and that is the attrition ratio of the two forces fighting.

Over the last few months, RuAF have gradually allocated reserves for the defense of the Robotyne axis. A few weeks ago (a month?), they moved 7th Guards Mountain Air Assault Division from Kherson oblast towards Robotyne .

During the last week or so, they also decided to move the 76th Guards Air Assault Division which was kept in reserve in Luhansk Oblast. This unit is considered to be the best they have.

Before the offensive, I believed RuAF had plenty of reserves in the area, and I still believe that was true. I think RuAF moving two VDV divisions to defend against the UA advance is a sign of high attrition among the regular RU forces.

It seems RuAF have decided to keep counter attacking instead of falling back to their prepared defenses, I think this along with the arrival of DPICM is part of the reason for the high attrition of RuAF.

It's also worth pointing out RuAF have committed 2 VDV divisions and one brigade in the Bakhmut area to stop the AFU advances.

Since VDV and Naval Infantry is what RuAF rely on for offensive maneuvers, they are most likely degrading their over all future offensive potential using them defensively.

It remains to be seen how RuAF will utilize the 76th GAAD in the area. This fight is far from done, but I predict we will keep seeing a slow grind well in to the fall/winter.

A lot of people ask why RuAF keep counter attacking. I think this is for "political" reasons. This way the local commanders can tell their bosses Ukraine have not managed to take Robotyne yet.

That would make it look like a huge failure for Ukraine on paper. Like they have accomplished nothing during 2.5 moths. This is a great argument for telegram and twitter experts.

In reality, territory gained and lost counted as km/km2 is pretty much irrelevant. This is just as true now as it was during the winter when the russians attacked Bakhmut. What really matters is the attrition ratio.

What we most likely are seeing is RU Southern Military District being highly attired to the point where they need reinforcements from the north. That being said, what we still dont know is how much remaining offensive potential Ukrainian forces have.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

SBU counterintelligence attacked Kursk airfield with drones at night. The kamikaze drones struck four Su-30 aircraft, one MiG-29, S-300 radars and two Pantsir.
Almost all of the drones reached their targets - three of them were shot down by Russian air defense. [This is from yesterday; have not seen this reported elsewhere, and you would have expected to]

Zelensky said in an interview that Ukraine will host a Military-Tech forum in October. The leading companies in this field from different continents will come there. Ukraine will be able to get contracts and "a lot of help."

Russia plans to produce about 118 missiles in August - representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine.
These are missiles of the Kinzhal, Kalibr, Iskander, Kh-101 and Kh-22 missiles.
At the same time, Russia still has at least 585 missiles with a range of more than 500 kilometers.

Western military training Ukrainian soldiers in the EU faces a shortage of interpreters.
Dutch General Martin Bonn, who is in charge of the training mission, told https://www.ft.com/content/5bcb359e-f0ae-475d-9773-b89c0ebe0a1b the Financial Times that interpreters are "the number one problem." They are often not sufficiently qualified, both from the Ukrainian side and from Western countries. A big problem is the translation of military and technical terms.

🇩🇪🇬🇷 Germany has approached Greece with a proposal to transfer 100 Greek Leopard 1A5 tanks currently in service to Ukraine, and in return receive modernized armored vehicles, the Greek edition Flight reports.
The only requirement from Germany is the transfer of serviceable tanks, as the Greek Leopard 1A5 has not been modernized in more than three decades.

In Enerhodar, a kamikaze drone attacked an improvised barracks of the Akhmat-1 Russian Guard unit. The video of the attack was shown by Ukrainian intelligence.
The operation was carried out this morning by the local resistance movement. The number of killed and wounded occupants is being clarified. The DIU says that the local military-civilian administration was urgently evacuated.

[Elections have been suspended in Ukraine for the duration of the war, which is in line with the constitution I believe. However, some in the US have been pushing for them]
❗️The President commented on the possibility of holding elections during the war. It would cost 5 billion hryvnias to hold elections in peacetime. It is unknown how much it will cost during the war. The military should also vote, so observers should be sent to the front line. And we also need to set up polling stations for seven million Ukrainians abroad.
So, according to Zelensky, the United States and the EU should finance the election process and send their observers to the trenches at the front.
"I will not hold elections on credit, I will not take [money] from weapons for elections," Zelensky added.

Putin's administration is choosing opponents for the Russian dictator in the 2024 presidential election: they decided not to register candidates under 50 so that Putin does not look like an old man - Meduza

In the first seven months of 2023, China sold almost twice as many loaders and more than three times as many excavators to Russia as in the same period of 2022.
The map shows a solid trench around the city of Tokmak, Zaporizhzhia region
Its length is approximately 40 kilometers.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are advancing from Robotyne towards Novoprokopivka and Ocheretuvate, according to Oleksandr Shtupun, the spokesperson of the Tavriia Defense Forces

Thanks @notimagain for your thoughts on F-16s still being delivered as well as the explanation of formation flying. Despite 100’sK of people being killed, somehow this one story of Juice felt so sad.

However, the determination and resilience of all Ukrainian people has been utterly amazing. At times, it feels that the significance of this war and its ripple effects on geopolitics cannot be understated. Like an existential fight for whether Democracy or Fascism will dominate the global order.

Saint Javelin at saintjavelin
In the Robotyne area, an "interesting" situation is happening for the occupying forces:

In recent days, the content being posted on "Z-channels" is becoming less optimistic for themselves. Without realizing it, they are showing a deeper advance of the ZSU forces. AT Deepstate_UA has indicated on their map locations of Ukrainian forces' successes.

If we take the point closest to the enemy of liberated territory as of August 16 to the latest point of confirmed ZSU presence, it's around a 3.5-kilometer distance. This means that in just one specific direction over the past 10 days, the ZSU has advanced at least 3.5 kilometers.

This might not seem like a lot, but let's consider the following details. Advancing 3.5 kilometers in the last 10 days is 1/3 of the total distance liberated by the Defense Forces in almost 3 months. In the previous 70 days, the ZSU advanced about 5 kilometers, and in the last 10 days, they've advanced on at least 3.5 kilometers.

The frontline dynamics are clearly changing against the Russian forces. OSINT analysts also note the rapid movement of Russian reserves to the Robotyne area. Some of these reserves are being shifted from the strategically important Lyman direction, which raises questions about the seriousness of the situation and possible prospects for the occupiers.

Lastly, it's worth acknowledging the courage and determination with which the ZSU are finding new approaches to breaking through fortified sections on the front. There are no examples in the world of operations of similar complexity, this is a unique experience. We admire and believe in the successes of the ZSU!

Emil Kastehelmi AT emilkastehelmi (27th August)
The Ukrainian offensive in the Robotyne sector has progressed, and the first Russian main defence line has been reached. In this thread we’ll take a closer look at the main defensive line and what might happen next. This thread includes high resolution satellite imagery.1/

Ukrainians have been trying to advance in the Robotyne area since June. After over two and a half months of fighting, Ukraine has liberated most of Robotyne and continued south, bypassing Novoprokokivka. In this map, you can see the Southern front on 1.6. and now, 27.8. 2/

The first significant fortified obstacle is located just outside Robotyne. The Russians have prepared formidable defences, which include covered firing positions and bunkers. From here, the Russians can defend against attacks from both north and east. Zoom in for details. 3/

At the moment it seems like Ukraine doesn’t want to attack straight towards these heavily fortified positions. Instead, they’re flanking the whole village of Novoprokokivka, and have established themselves between the positions south of Robotyne and the main defence line. 4/

The Ukrainians have roughly two immediate directions: 1. Try to open up the main road in Novoprokokivka and continue towards the heavier main defence fortifications at Solodka Balka. 2. Try to breach the main defensive line near Verbove and continue towards Ocheretuvate. 5/

Let’s take a look at the defences in the village of Solodka Balka. At the beginning of August, Russians were improving the positions they built during spring. You can see a lot of construction material, especially steel elements, which are used as roof material. 6/

The Russians have built 100-350m long communication trenches, which helps them both reinforce or retreat from the fighting positions. The built area of the village works as a buffer zone, and immediately after the village ends, another trenchline begins. 7/

Heavy fortifications are built in order to block any potential advance on the main road towards Tokmak. This is an important avenue of approach, so defending it is very logical. However, while concentrating on this section, the Russians may have missed something important. 8/

The main defence line west of Verbove seems to be in a significantly worse state. At the beginning of August, no preparation work for finalizing these trenches had begun. At the end of August, low-resolution images show almost no signs of any trench improvements either. 10/

There are sections with no covered firing positions and very few accommodation bunkers, even though great effort was put into this in other places. However, the Russians tend to fortify the treelines, but only limited indicators of this can be seen in these images.

The topographic heatmap gives also some additional insight to the battlefield. Russians have constructed most of their defences on dominant heights, and there is no way to completely avoid fighting uphill. The highlighted ridge is the next tactically central point. 12/

The height differences are not extremely dramatic, and the treelines reduce the Russian field of fire. In this area, the best attempt for the Ukrainians would likely be to continue forward, breach the line between Solodka Balka and Verbove, and start flanking operations. 13/

This situation would provide a better basis for future operations, for example attacking the actual villages of Verbove and Novoprokokivka. Widening the salient is necessary in order to create a sustainable frontline. 14/

Soon, AFU has to start clearing the flanks more intensively. The offensive cannot continue south indefinitely - Ukrainians must, at some point, start focusing more on Kopani or Verbove. Ukraine may face challenges in force distribution and prioritization. 15/

If the attacks in the flanks do not succeed, the spearhead will also slow down, giving the Russians time to prepare defences in depth. This is actually happening already - the Russians have started constructing additional defense lines in the Berdyansk/Mariupol direction. 16/

So, the main points of this thread: - Fortifications are not as strong in all areas of the first main defensive line, as known as the Surovikin line - Russian preparedness varies - Positive developments for Ukraine are possible in the near future, especially local success 17/

Thanks for reading, this thread took forever to make. The images are from 1.-2.8.2023. They do not endanger Ukrainian OPSEC in any way.

Original thread with images here:
https://twitter.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1695879651158052910

Point is, the most likely weak point in the main defensive line looks like Verbove. Verbove itself sits behind this line. Its not as high as other areas and apparently the defensive line isn't as well built.

Then today:

NoelReports AT Noelreports
Russian miliblogger Romanov with an update on the Verbove axis. He is calling it 'a very dangerous situation'.

NoelReports AT Noelreports
"Ukrainian troops are having success in the direction of Verbove on the southern front," Spokesman of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Andriy Kovalev, said.

Its not the breakthrough, but if there is going to be one, this is the most likely route at this point.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-28-2023

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian officials formally acknowledged that Ukrainian forces liberated Robotyne amid continued Ukrainian advances in western Zaporizhia Oblast and near Bakhmut. [Confirms Redtoothbrush's reports]
• The Russian military command continues to expend relatively elite Russian airborne forces by deploying these troops to defend vulnerable positions against Ukrainian counteroffensives.
• A Ukrainian intelligence official indicated that Russian forces may have marginally replenished their stocks of high-precision missiles through conservation in the summer of 2023.
• Ukrainian officials stated that Russian forces may intend to resume a wider campaign against Ukrainian critical infrastructure in the fall of 2023, but assessed Russia likely has not replenished its missile stocks to sustain a campaign on the scale of the winter 2022-2023 strikes.
• Ukrainian officials assessed that any upcoming Russian strike campaign may employ new tactics that use fewer missiles and more drones.
• Russian milbloggers continued to criticize the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) for ignoring ultranationalists’ complaints over the mistreatment of a Southern Military District (SMD) brigade operating in the Kherson direction.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in western Donetsk, and did not make any confirmed advances.
• Russian lawmakers and the Russian information space expressed varied opinions about a proposed Russian State Duma bill that would deprive individuals of their acquired Russian citizenship for evading military registration and mobilization.
• The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on August 28 that partisans created an explosion at the barracks of a Chechen “Akhmat-1” Rosgvardia riot police (OMON) unit in Enerhodar in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast.

A BBC article on Ukrainian war dead; not so much the numbers, but the impact. It seems likely that Russian losses are higher, but with a bigger population and an autocratic leadership, they can afford the pain.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66581217

My takeaway after that article:

• Any dream of Russian reunification between the RFU and Ukraine has vanished. If Russia keeps the stolen territories, it will be occupation - at best - and a similar situation to the Israeli/Palestine conflict.
• It took Germany decades and a lot of work to regain trust in Europe after the Second World War. I think Russia will be a Baltic pariah state for a long time to come.
• Depopulation on both sides is going to be a problem.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️ Military intelligence: Russia has at least 585 missiles kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-russia-has-585-with-range-over-500-km/  with range over 500 km. Russian forces possess around 270 Iskander ballistic and cruise missiles, 140 Kalibr cruise missiles, roughly 100 cruise missiles of Kh-101, Kh-555, and Kh-55 designs, and around 75 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles, according to Skibitskyi.

⚡️ Reznikov: 'Powerful players' to arrive on Ukraine's arms market.
kyivindependent.com/reznikov-powerful-players-to-arrive-on-ukraines-arms-market/ Ukraine has managed to significantly increase domestic weapons production and new "powerful players" will soon arrive on the country's arms market, Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said on Aug. 28, as reported by Ukrinform. [no further info yet]

⚡️Expert group: 67% of foreign components in Russian drones originate in China kyivindependent.com/expert-group-67-of-foreign-components-in-russian-drones-originate-in-china/    The Yermak-McFaul Expert Group on Russian Sanctions examined 174 foreign components from three drone models used by Russia to attack Ukraine — Shahed-136/131, Lancet, and Orlan-10 — discovering that more than 60% had come from China.
Many drone components are available on open platforms, making regulatory control difficult, the group noted, calling on manufacturers to do more to prevent Russia from accessing their products in circumvention of international sanctions.

⚡️Belarus opposition leader: Wagner fighters issued kyivindependent.com/belarus-opposition-leader-wagner-fighters-issued-belarusian-passports/  Belarusian passports. The Internal Affairs Ministry of Belarus has been providing new passports to Wagner mercenaries, Belarusian opposition leader Pavel Latushko said in an interview with the Polish Press Agency on Aug. 28. "Wagner members are receiving Belarusian passports — real documents, but issued in other names," Latushko said. "Thus, they can simply enter the EU through border crossings."

⚡️UN records 9,511 civilian deaths kyivindependent.com/un-records-9-511-civilian-deaths-in-ukraine-since-february-2022/  in Ukraine since February 2022. The OHCHR added that the true numbers are likely to be "considerably higher," as the UN is unable to confirm information from areas where there are "intense hostilities."

⚡️ State Bureau of Investigation considering multiple versions of fatal trainer aircraft collision. kyivindependent.com/state-bureau-of-investigation-considers-3-versions-of-fatal-trainer-jets-crash/  These include a technical malfunction, human error on the side of the pilots, and safety violations in the organization of the flights, she said.

⚡️ Russia's FSB confirms arrest of former employee of US Consulate in Vladivostok. kyivindependent.com/russias-fsb-confirms-arrest-of-former-employee-of-us-consulate-in-vladivostok/  Shonov was allegedly gathering information on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, mobilization, and protest activity in Russia ahead of the 2024 presidential elections, carrying out the task from September 2022 until his detention, the FSB claimed

⚡️Governor: Over 300 children evacuated kyivindependent.com/more-than-300-children-reportedly-evacuated-from-kupiansk-as-russians-push/from Kupiansk. More than 300 children have been evacuated from front-line areas in Kharkiv Oblast's Kupiansk district since Aug. 9, Oblast Governor Oleh Syniehubov reported on Aug. 28.

Ukraine bids farewell to legendary volunteer commander kyivindependent.com/ukraine-bids-farewell-to-legendary-volunteer-commander-killed-near-bakhmut/  killed near Bakhmut

Ragnar Gudmundsson
■ Engagements close to average,strikes well below
■ Most landbased equipment & vehicle losses this year
■ Double-digit vehicle, artillery, APV, tanks & special equipment losses ■ Troop losses also >7-day average

@TheABC heartbreaking losses. I had a little sob.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

Ukraine now produces Neptunes, Stugnа, and Corsairs, and the volume of this production is growing, — President Zelenskyy in an interview

The Biden administration is considering several major new options for increasing Western military support for Ukraine as it believes the war is likely to continue next year, — WP.
According to the article, there is growing support in Washington for the transfer of longer-range cluster munitions. The Pentagon continues to oppose the provision of ATACMS missiles to Ukraine due to the fears of officials that the US does not have enough of them in order not to undermine its own combat readiness for possible future conflicts.

South Korea announced record financial aid to Ukraine for 2024, — Reuters. The aid package is 8 times larger than the one allocated this year. This includes:
▫️ $100 million for restoration;
▫️ 200 million dollars for humanitarian aid;
▫️ Another $100 million will be transferred through international organizations.

🔥In the occupied Berdiansk, the factory where the occupiers charged military equipment is on fire, says Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov.

In the South of Ukraine, the Armed Forces of Ukraine established effective fire control over the material and technical routes of the enemy, and now "shell hunger" for the Russians is becoming a common phenomenon there, said the spokeswoman of the Operational Command "Pivden" ("South") Nataliya Humenyu

After Shahed's latest attacks on Ukraine, elements were found in them that indicate that these UAVs are already being assembled in Russia, Moscow is currently planning to increase the production of drones on its territory, — representative of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense Skibitsky

"Wagner" PMC will cease to exist, — Deputy of the State Duma of the Russian Federation Sobolev
The Wagner mercenaries will be able to be released from service or sign a contract with the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.

Surovikin's last call to the family was on June 26, and there was no more communication between the family and the general, said Alexei Venediktov, ex-editor-in-chief of Ekho-Moskva.
"He didn't call for his wife's birthday, his daughter's 20th birthday, or his mother's birthday, which was a few days ago. This is not accepted in their family. The general always kept in touch and even congratulated him on holidays from Syria," the journalist said.
Venediktov also said that Surovikin's family was informed of Surovikin's resignation by telephone.

❗️Poland and the Baltic states will close the border with Belarus if a "critical incident" occurs, the Polish interior minister said.

The ambassadors of the G7 countries held a meeting with the Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada, Ruslan Stefanchuk, where they discussed judicial and anti-corruption reforms

Crimea is economically dependent on the tourism industry. The local "authority" appointed by the occupiers continues to encourage tourists despite the shelling. Tour operators and hotels also offer significant discounts on tour packages and complimentary services. However, the Russian Union of Tourism Industry reported that due to a drop in demand, hotel prices in Crimea this summer season have dropped by 30% compared to 2022, and discounts are not valid.
The average booking rate for August was 40%, the TV channel notes. -CNN

Georgia has let five Ukrainians into its territory who had been living on the Russian-Georgian border for more than a week, one of them confirmed to Suspilnе.

On the ninth day of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Putin asked Chancellor Scholz and President Macron to recognize the annexation of Crimea and the "independence" of Donbas, — Bild.

The Ukrainian-made quadrocopter "Velikiy Banderyk" was allowed to be used by the military.
It is equipped with 8 powerful motors and can carry up to 31.5 kg of cargo. It also has a multi-functional reset system for accurate "delivery" of ammunition. Among the features, the Ministry of Defense notes, the drone can be controlled from anywhere in the world and is resistant to electronic warfare.

Kyiv took 165th place in the ranking of the best cities in the world, — The Economist.
The capital of Ukraine was in 165th place, receiving 44 points out of 100. Only Harare (the capital of Zimbabwe), Dhaka (the capital of Bangladesh), Port Moresby (the capital of Papua New Guinea), Karachi (Pakistan), Lagos (Nigeria), Algiers (capital of Algeria), Tripoli (Libya), Damascus (capital of Syria) are ranked below Kyiv.
Kyiv's infrastructure is rated the worst of all 173 analyzed cities — 23.2 points out of 100. The Americans base this rating on shelling from Russia. In 2022, the capital of Ukraine did not participate in the study of The Economist.

The International eSports Federation has allowed Russian teams to compete in international competitions with the flag and anthem, — the Computer Sports Federation of Russia

Tours of the Russian Lenkom Theater canceled in Israel. The Lenkom Theater and its actors actively supported the Russian military invasion of Ukraine. The theater's leading actor, Andrey Leonov, and director, Mark Varshaver, even handed over a car and humanitarian aid to the Russian military in the war zone on behalf of the theater.

The world's largest aircraft carrier — USS Gerald R. Ford arrived in Türkiye, Anadolu reports [when you look at it, the sheer magnificence of the size and construction is amazing]

Minister of Digital Transformation Fedorov showed Ukrainian robots, including remote turrets and kamikaze robots
Today they were tested in the field.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

"EU must be ready to accept new members by 2030", - Michel
Brussels made Ukraine, Moldova and Albania candidate countries. Also, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina are planning to join the EU. [Serbia? Isn't one pro-Russian country in the EU enough?]

Defense forces in the Kherson region destroyed the Russian radar station Predel-E. The occupiers called it a novelty of the military-industrial complex.

Jan Petrovsky, the leader of the neo-Nazi group Rusich, detained in Finland, is requesting extradition to Russia. He was visited by consuls accompanied by a lawyer.
Last week, Ukraine's prosecutor's office requested Petrovsky's extradition. He is accused of murders in Donbas in 2014-2015 as a member of Rusich. He also fought against Ukraine during the full-scale invasion.

A Mi-8 helicopter crashed in the Chelyabinsk region, Russia - Russian media. All 4 people on board were killed.

Pope Francis called the Russians "descendants of the great Russia of saints, rulers, the great Russia of Peter the Great, Catherine the Great, that empire - great, enlightened, great culture and great humanity" and urged them not to abandon this heritage.
Ukraine's Foreign Ministry said that with such imperialist propaganda, the Kremlin justifies the killing of Ukrainians and the destruction of Ukraine. The Foreign Ministry spokesperson expressed regret that Russian great-power ideas are coming from the Pope.

Kremlin welcomes Pope's words about the legacy of great Russia, good that the pontiff knows Russian history - Peskov

Matteo Bruni, the head of the Vatican's press service, said that the Pope wanted to encourage young people to preserve and develop everything positive in the "great Russian cultural and spiritual heritage." Francis allegedly did not want to glorify Russia's imperialist logic and statesmen.

Ukraine has returned the bodies of 84 more fallen defenders, the Ministry of Reintegration reports.

A painting made by a child at an art therapy class in Lviv.

Jan Petrovsky, the leader of the Russian neo-Nazi group Rusich

Interesting:

On the ninth day of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Putin asked Chancellor Scholz and President Macron to recognize the annexation of Crimea and the "independence" of Donbas, — Bild.

Journalist Stephan Lambie accessed the transcript of the conversations between the Chancellor of Germany and the President of France, in which they discussed their discussions with Putin.

In a conversation with his French colleague, Scholz noted that "the situation is not improving." Both leaders also stated that Putin did not touch on the subject of sanctions during the conversation.

According to Scholz, from the beginning of the invasion, Putin told him on the phone "about demilitarization and denazification, asked to recognize Crimea as part of Russia and about the independence of the "republics."

He was also ready for negotiations but insisted that they take place without the participation of President Zelenskyy and a ceasefire. Putin was ready to talk only with Macron and Scholz.

"Putin then said that the Ukrainian delegation went to Poland because they want to talk to the US president to get instructions from him," Scholz said.

Macron confirmed that he had a very similar dialogue with Putin.

Thank you for that, DancesWithDucks.

Day 9? So when Vlad was aware it wasn't going to plan (ie he hadn't taken Kyiv in 3 days).

He could have asked France and Germany to recognise his annexation of Crimea and "independence" of Donbas at any time in the previous 4 years.

Not at all surprising to see the way Vlad tries to cast the Ukrainian president as not existing, and the Ukrainians as merely enacting orders from the US. Being shameless and going for the big lies has worked well for him over the years.

"The Armed Forces lost only 5 of 71 Leopard 2 tanks during the summer counteroffensive", - Forbes

All losses of "Leopard-2" occurred in a square with an area of about 65 square km, bounded by Mala Tokmachka in the north and Robotyne in the south.

@TheABC thank you for the link; that and the picture by that child have broken me. I almost wish I believed in a god, so I could curse them all to a hell.

Thank you, all, for your continued updates and information. Slava Ukrani.

Heroyam slava

Slava Ukraini!

Michael MacKay AT mhmck
The Russian invaders launched an airstrike in the Verbove area, Zaporizhzhya region. –General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at 18:00 on 29 August 2023 This indicates Ukrainian defenders widened the breach in enemy lines and are advancing south and southeast from Robotyne.

WarMonitor AT WarMonitor3
Ukrainian forces continue to have small scale success in the direction of Verbove. Russian forces are shelling Robotyne area heavily.

(WarMonitor quote is also from General Staff of the Armed Forces)

I am seeing quite a number of tweets using these quotes (or variations of them) to suggest that Ukraine has breached the main defensive line in Verbove. I am very very skeptical about that - I think thats a misrepresentation/misinterpretation of the statement - but I do sincerely hope I'm wrong and there's more going on.