It's such a hard one. Yes, early intervention and good ARPs in schools would reduce the need for ehcps. Because they'd be providing for these pupils and meeting their needs.
But they don't fund education to meet the needs of children without send so how they expect to cut budgets and meet the needs of pupils with send and reduce the number of ehcps needed is beyond me.
If they realised education wasn't a one size fits all - take same exams after 11yrs - system we could have an education system to meet the needs of pupils. They use to be able to do alternatives to GCSEs or duel vocational courses at college at 14.
If they invested in education like they did their mates quick rich schemes we wouldn't be in this mess that they need to solve by cutting services further and we wouldn't need to rely on the private sector (which ironically they love so much re mainstream Ed and health etc ) 