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Ukraine Invasion: Part 43

992 replies

MagicFox · 08/07/2023 11:10

With thanks as usual to everyone!

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335
L1ttledrummergirl · 17/07/2023 19:49

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar in answer to your question above, my understanding is that battlefield medicine (for want of a better term), has improved massively amongst the western countries who actually give a shit about the soldiers. Ukraine have been training with them and I would imagine this has been a large part of that.

I'd like to echo everyone else's sentiments and thank you for your contribution to these threads, it's been immense. Take your break, you've definitely earned it, but please don't be a stranger, pop in every now and again to say hello.

The nearer Ukraine get to victory, the more desperate and nasty their supporters are likely to become. This is where we say "hold your nerve and keep a stiff upper lip". The reality is that their are lots of us here to hold the Fort while you recover. R&R is important to help us to keep going and you've more than earned yours.

StormShadow · 17/07/2023 20:07

BezMills · 17/07/2023 19:32

It's really terrible and I shouldn't speak I'll of the dead but what the actual fuck are people thinking driving into Crimea for a summer holiday?

On the last thread, a mere fortnight ago, I wrote:

Why the fuck would anyone go to Crimea on holiday right now? You'd think self-preservation instincts would kick in!

And here we are.

Igotjelly · 17/07/2023 20:13

I do think, having mused on it today, that it’s just another example of hybrid warfare and psyops to wear people down with propaganda and constant whataboutary and ‘stiff debate’.

TheABC · 17/07/2023 20:43

Just wanted to add to the chorus; thank you @ReleaseTheDucksOfWar and take that break, if you need to.

After seeing people get onto COVID-19 cruises back in 2020, nothing surprised me now. However it's a handy distraction that they've got 50,000 panicked holiday makers trying to cross the border back to Russia. Brings a whole new meaning to "golden bridge".

BringBackCoffeeCreams · 17/07/2023 20:44

Mb76 · 17/07/2023 18:40

It says Kherson, Zaporizzya, Donetsk Regions. Not all of these regions are under Russian occupation at present and either way the ones that are have been illegally proclaimed Russian territory. My blood is still boiling about these pseudo referendums 😡

I was thinking earlier that the way they're trying to fleece fleeing russian tourists is a better indication of their true feelings.

Mb76 · 17/07/2023 21:02

StormShadow · 17/07/2023 20:07

On the last thread, a mere fortnight ago, I wrote:

Why the fuck would anyone go to Crimea on holiday right now? You'd think self-preservation instincts would kick in!

And here we are.

Many reasons

lack of information, they think it’s all fine and safe, false sense of security. They still believe Russian army is the second mightiest in the world. The government certainly does not share the true extent of Russian losses as we well know

Summer holidays are 3 months long for most kids over there

they can’t travel abroad and there’s nowhere else to go at the moment where there is sun and sea - there are not many seaside resorts in Russia itself

again, mostly my parents’ generation so 55 - they have this sense of nostalgia - they grew up with this image of Crimea being the Russian riviera ... they want to get to see it before too late

RedToothBrush · 17/07/2023 21:11

BringBackCoffeeCreams · 17/07/2023 20:44

I was thinking earlier that the way they're trying to fleece fleeing russian tourists is a better indication of their true feelings.

I think it's probably survival too though.

There is a general lack of clean water (you can't rely on tapwater in a war zone for many reasons). And fuel genuinely will be in short supply and difficult to get hold of - an increase in demand will only make it more difficult. I'm guessing a lot of fuel will be being half inches from the Russian military for profit. And sold by Russian soldiers (who aren't getting decent food ratios remember) in the black market chain.

It certainly won't be just 'locals' who are 'fleecing' tourists. It will be a supply and demand issue - not purely a chancer issue.

I've checked Google maps this evening. No sign of jams. Which is interesting in itself. That number of vehicles doesn't just disappear like that. It's possible that traffic out of Crimea was halted at one point due to the problems and curfew being imminent. But that curfew is interesting in itself. So where has everyone gone?!

MMBaranova · 17/07/2023 21:57

Crimea was always a key destination for Russians and Ukrainians.

Now Russians who do go abroad get to Turkey? Or Sharm el-Sheikh? Or fly back from Sharm via Turkey? [Image from minutes ago.]

Possibly UAE and Thailand? Am not at all sure. They are certainly not taking the H of Parliament and Tower Bridge pictures they once loved.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 43
DdraigGoch · 17/07/2023 22:20

RedToothBrush · 17/07/2023 17:12

Ever been delayed at the airport trying to get home? You should never complain again. Look at this thread about how fun a return trip from a holiday in Crimea is via road trip through Ukraine. Don't forget, if you are lucky you might also get to see some fireworks along the way:

Anton Gerashchenko AT Gerashchenko_en
Russian tourist chats are full of panicked Russians who did not get the vacation they desired. I've translated some of their posts below.

"Important information for those who are going to get out of Crimea by land route. The most important thing is to stock up on the necessary amount of water. Local "entrepreneurs" decided to take advantage of this situation and in order to enrich themselves increased the price by 8-10 times!

Being on the territory of Crimea download offline maps, on the territory of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk regions, you can use mobile communication only if you have a SIM-card Phoenix, but there is an option to buy it right in the queue in front of the checkpoint, there they sell them for 2000 rubles.

The situation with toilets is also miserable, free toilets at petrol stations have been closed, they justify themselves by saying that the influx of people is too large, you can make an agreement for 500 roubles, for children, pregnant women, disabled people and participants of the SMO the price is 400 roubles".

"The first border has been passed. Customs. We fuelled up at the last Lukoil petrol station, but there are no toilets there. There are big traffic jams in the opposite direction, towards Rostov. Documents and passports and child's birth certificate were checked at the checkpoint. At the customs there is a toilet and a lot of people on foot with their bags, their bags are checked there like at the airport. For those with cars, only the documents."

"Why didn't they say they guarantee safety on the land road to Crimea, if they can't protect the Crimean bridge, and it's a 50/50 ride there?"

"Yes, Megaphone [cellphone service provider] is completely dead, it doesn't show anything."

"Just yesterday I was thinking what a moron one should be to go on holiday to Crimea now. Well, now the holiday will definitely be remembered when they go home through the front. They are disrupting the logistics of our military with traffic jams, stupid f."

"One thing that annoys me is that after the first time, the competent authorities swore that ordinary people have nothing to fear, that now combat dolphins, medusas, shrimps and plankton guard the bridge 50 hours a day. F**k, how did that happen? !!!!!! Did they screw up again? !!!!!!!!"

"Are there gas stations along the road in the new territories?" Sure. Bandits, too, not just gas stations".

I must say that I feel sympathetic towards the 14 year old injured and orphaned when the bridge was struck - the holiday was probably not her decision. I have absolutely no sympathy for her parents however. They took their family on holiday to a war zone. No one forced them to.

DdraigGoch · 17/07/2023 22:21

jgw1 · 17/07/2023 18:48

I don't disagree with anything you have said.
Its just odd given Putin's desire to get people to think of the occupied parts of Ukraine as Russia, that such checks take place.

They'll need to watch out for potential saboteurs.

DdraigGoch · 17/07/2023 22:35

There is a general lack of clean water (you can't rely on tapwater in a war zone for many reasons).

One of which being that the Russians have blown up the reservoir.

ScrollingLeaves · 17/07/2023 22:58

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar
Thank you for all you have done here. I am so sorry you feel you need to step back. Your daily contribution has been like a fine gold wire weaving through this year and a half, drawing news and thoughts together; and your clear and even handed comments, always looking for truth and balance, have not only been informative but calming.

PerkingFaintly · 17/07/2023 23:31

OFGS.

Typo sends millions of US military emails to Russian ally Mali
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-66226873

MissConductUS · 18/07/2023 00:01

PerkingFaintly · 17/07/2023 23:31

OFGS.

Typo sends millions of US military emails to Russian ally Mali
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-66226873

That's what the military calls a SNAFU. 😂

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 18/07/2023 08:19

ScrollingLeaves · 17/07/2023 22:58

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar
Thank you for all you have done here. I am so sorry you feel you need to step back. Your daily contribution has been like a fine gold wire weaving through this year and a half, drawing news and thoughts together; and your clear and even handed comments, always looking for truth and balance, have not only been informative but calming.

Thank you and everyone for such kind words .. and beautifully put too.

As I say I'll try to keep up with the roundups but might shorten them / miss a day now and then. I am fortunate enough to have that option ...

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 18/07/2023 08:21

On that note ...

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-17-2023

Key Takeaways:

  • The July 17 attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge will likely have significant and sustained impacts on Russian logistics as traffic from tourism to occupied Crimea jams Russian logistics to southern Ukraine in the midst of the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south.
  • Russian and occupation authorities appear to be consumed with mitigating the consequences of the attack rather than leveraging the incident to levy heavy informational attacks with rhetorical inflections.
  • The Russian milblogger response to the Kerch Strait Bridge attack largely criticized Russian authorities for failing to secure the bridge.
  • The Wagner Group continues to prepare to establish a permanent presence in Belarus.
  • Russia continues efforts to reorganize its domestic security apparatus in the wake of the Wagner Group’s armed rebellion.
  • Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front over the backdrop of increased Russian offensive operations along the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border on July 17.
  • Russian forces conducted active offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove line and have likely made marginal tactical gains in this direction.
  • Russian forces continued limited ground attacks southwest and south of Kreminna, around Bakhmut, and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
  • Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the Bakhmut area and advanced near the Donetsk-Zaporizhia administrative border.
  • Russian forces conducted limited counterattacks in western Donetsk Oblast.
  • Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued unsuccessful ground attacks in the Orikhiv area in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
  • Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported that Russian authorities have removed at least eight Russian military commanders without reappointing them to new positions since the start of the war, which is largely consistent with ISW’s previous assessments.
  • Russian occupation authorities continue to artificially increase the number of Russian citizens in occupied Ukraine ahead of the September regional elections.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 43
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 18/07/2023 08:36

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Black Sea grain deal collapses https://kyivindependent.com/grain-deal-to-expire-as-russia-opposes-prolongation/ as Russia pulls from agreement. [Erdogan -has- said that Turkish ships will guarentee grain movements but who knows how this will work, if at all]

⚡️Guterres: Russia's pull-out of grain deal 'will strike a blow https://kyivindependent.com/un-secretary-general-russias-pull-out-of-grain-deal-will-strike-a-blow-to-people-in-need-everywhere/ to people in need everywhere.'

Zelensky said the Black Sea grain corridor can continue operating even without Russia's participation.
"We are not afraid. We were approached by companies that own ships. They said that they were ready if Ukraine would allow and Turkey would let the ships pass," he said.

[Lot of reported comments about the bridge, the most valuable of which are:]

⚡️ISW: Crimean Bridge attack continues to affect https://kyivindependent.com/isw-39/ Russian logistics in southern Ukraine.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin said that one span of the part of the Crimean Bridge for road vehicles is completely destroyed and cannot be restored.
Khusnullin added that the underwater pillars of the bridge were not damaged by the explosion and that cars should be able to use the bridge again by the early hours of July 18. However, only one lane will be open. https://kyivindependent.com/one-part-of-the/

⚡️Putin claims 'there will be a response https://kyivindependent.com/putin-on-crimean-bridge-attack-there-will-be-a-response/ to Crimean Bridge attacks.

Russia is concentrating "more than 100,000 personnel, more than 900 tanks, more than 555 artillery systems, 370 MLRS" in the Lyman-Kupiansk direction, according to Serhii Cherevatyi, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Eastern Military Command. https://kyivindependent.com/military-4/

Ukrainian forces advanced in the Mala Tokmachka-Novopokrovka and Velyka Novosilka-Urozhaine directions on the southern front line, spokesperson of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Andrii Kovalov reported on July 18. https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-ukraine-advances-in-two-southern-sectors/

⚡️Monitoring group: Third Wagner convoy (https://kyivindependent.com/monitoring-group-third-wagner-convoy-arrives-in-belarus/) arrives in Belarus.
A third convoy of the Wagner Group has arrived in Belarus, heading to the camp near Asipovichy, the monitoring group Belarusian Hajun reported on July 17.

⚡️Media: Russian military jet crashes https://kyivindependent.com/russian-jet-crashes-into/ into Azov Sea.

Samantha Power, the head of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), arrived in Ukraine, as she informed on social media on July 17. https://kyivindependent.com/us-international-aid-agency-chief-samantha-power-arrives-in-kyiv/

The downing of the MH17 flight on July 17, 2014, is "one of the most terrible pages of the armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine," the Foreign Ministry said on the ninth anniversary of the crime. https://kyivindependent.com/mfa-of-ukraine-on-9-year-anniversary-of-downing-of-mh17/ [well, and against Malaysia and the NL)

More than 19,500 Ukrainian children have been identified by the Ukrainian government as forcibly deported to the territory of Russia since February 2022.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 18/07/2023 08:58

UNITED24 Media Telegram

❗️ The next Ramstein meeting will be held on July 18, — the Minister of Defense of Ukraine.

Oleksiy Reznikov and Lloyd Austin had a phone conversation about the priorities of Ramstein-14.
The primary attention was paid to the situation on the battlefield and the needs of the Ukrainian army in weapons and equipment.

🌾 Erdoğan plans to talk to Putin in reaction to Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative.
Erdoğan said that the Black Sea Grain Initiative has already gone down in history as a great diplomatic success. It made it possible to transport more than 33 million tons of grain, and this, in turn, prevented food shortages in many countries.

❗️President Zelenskyy announced that he had sent official letters to Turkish President Erdoğan and UN Secretary-General Guterres with a proposal to continue the work of the "grain agreement" or its counterpart in a tripartite format.

❗️The Russians went on the offensive in the direction of Kupiansk, — Syrskyi

UAV manufacturer Switchblade has made updates to its products based on feedback from the Ukrainian military, said the drone operator of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
“Yes, they learned and made several changes and improvements. It didn’t fundamentally change or expand the capabilities of the Switchblade, but they pulled it up to the current realities,” he said.

Sweden allocates $584 million to Ukraine to recover and implement reforms, — The Government.
The strategy should contribute to the integration of Ukraine into the EU, strengthening stability and economic growth. The funds will go to:
▫️recovery (priority — critical infrastructure, essential social services, rehabilitation);
▫️green transition and sustainable
▫️inclusive economic growth, entrepreneurship and trade,
▫️security and stability;
▫️human rights, democracy, the rule of law.

Azerbaijan allocated 7.6 million dollars for humanitarian aid to Ukraine. President Ilham Aliyev signed the corresponding decree.

🤝The USA will provide another $500 million for humanitarian aid to Ukraine
USAID will fund emergency food aid, medical care, and drinking water.

📵 Russian authorities have banned thousands of officials and civil servants from using iPhones and other Apple devices for official government use. The ban applies to all Apple products, the Financial Times reported

The US monitors the situation, but Ukraine decides how to conduct military operations, — US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken about the explosion on the Crimean bridge.

We cannot allow this war to last another 500 days — the head of the British Foreign Ministry, James Cleverly, said during the meeting of the UN Security Council.

❗️On Lukashenko's orders, Belarus abducted thousands of Ukrainian children, — The Telegraph investigation
According to journalists, since September 2022, about 2,150 Ukrainian children over the age of 6 have been forcibly deported to at least 4 Belarusian camps. Three of them are located in the Minsk region, and another in the Gomel region.
The total number of deported children may reach 3,000 by the fall.
According to The Telegraph, in these camps, children were forcibly re-educated, beaten for refusing to obey, and forced to renounce Ukraine. In some cases, children were taught how to use weapons and military equipment.
One video provided to the ICC as evidence shows the Gruzdev sisters, Belarusian singers, talking to Ukrainian children, probably in the Dubrava camp.
💬 "We want to live in peace, we want Biden to die, we want Zelensky to die, we want Putin to prosper and take control of all of Ukraine," the sisters say on stage to dozens of children sitting in the audience.

Ukrainians Oleksiy Sereda and Kyrylo Bolyukh became vice-champions of the world in synchronized high diving.

The Swedish company Essity, known for the brands Zewa, Libresse and Libero, has left the Russian market.

In Lviv, on the 11th day after a Russian missile hit a residential building, a live cat was found under the rubble [It's recovering]

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 18/07/2023 09:18

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba holds urgent consultations with partners at the UN in New York over Russia's withdrawal from the grain deal.

In recent days, the work of Russian propagandists has intensified significantly, with special attention paid to video and photo materials of captured Ukrainian Defense Forces soldiers.
"The massive appearance of materials with captured defenders of the Motherland is the intensification of one of the directions of the Russian information war against Ukraine. This is not an increase in the number of people taken prisoner - this is an increase in the number of influence materials produced by Russian propaganda," - the coordination headquarters for the treatment of prisoners of war

🇰🇷Hyundai will help rebuild Boryspil Airport after the war - The Korea Herald.

Chatillon · 18/07/2023 09:30

MissConductUS · 18/07/2023 00:01

That's what the military calls a SNAFU. 😂

Couldn't be spun as a double bluff could it?

(Living in hope...)

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 18/07/2023 10:38

Kyiv Indep

⚡️UK Defense Ministry: Ukraine maintains left-bank beachhead at Antonivsky Bridge.https://kyivindependent.com/uk-defense-ministry-ukraine-holds-left-bank-beachhead-at-antonivsky-bridge/

Ukraine Invasion: Part 43
MissConductUS · 18/07/2023 17:48

Chatillon · 18/07/2023 09:30

Couldn't be spun as a double bluff could it?

(Living in hope...)

That's the dilemma for the Russians, innit? They can't trust any of it. The whole thing could have been intentional, with disinformation mixed in with some mundane true bits.

I'm leaning towards it being intentional, as the way email works is that each address is stored as a separate contact. One of two of those contacts might have had the typo that changed .mil to .ml, but it wouldn't have been a common error.

MissConductUS · 18/07/2023 22:34

There's another $1.3B aid package to be announced in the next day or two.

U.S. to announce $1.3 bln in military aid for Ukraine -sources

What's very interesting about this package is the it includes the VAMPIRE missile system that provides both air defense and surface to surface attack capabilities. It's highly mobile and brand new kit. It went into large scale production just last year. I'm sure this is headed to front line units for anti-drone use.

Ukrainian service members unpack Javelin anti-tank missiles, delivered by plane as part of the U.S. military support package for Ukraine, at the Boryspil International Airport outside Kyiv, Ukraine February 10, 2022.  REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko/File Pho...

U.S. to announce $1.3 bln in military aid for Ukraine -sources

The United States will announce a new pledge to buy $1.3 billion worth of military aid for Kyiv in its conflict with Russia in the coming days, two U.S. officials said.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-announce-13-bln-military-aid-ukraine-sources-2023-07-18

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 18/07/2023 23:04

[18/07, 11:02] XXXXX Thank God those guys all whom we helped 90% are alive. 🇺🇦 But in general, the situation is not encouraging, especially the Bakhmut direction. They set up the production of drones. They have 10 factories producing drones, and in Ukraine there is one factory and China. It is very difficult to fight now, they quickly calculate our artillery and make return salvos.

From one of my friends in Ukraine who is a volunteer. They really need drones as well as the ammo.

DrBlackbird · 19/07/2023 00:15

Absolutely horrific and utterly chilling what Russia and Belarus are doing to Ukrainian children. As a mother, it breaks my heart.