Ukraine Invasion: Part 42

[MagicFox]

Setting this up early given the speed of current events

**

1. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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1. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

Ukrainian people are stoic but I think a lot of it comes down to literally being in the survival mode and the adrenaline… once this is over there will be massive MH issues, PTSD etc for generations to come 😞

Redtoothbrush, thanks for trying to explain and get into the mind of a Russian, both as communicator and receiver. That is truly fucked up. My head hurts. I feel like I am living in parallel universes.

I wish it was just being dramatic but there could be a more than 50% chance it will happen, if this war continues to go badly for Russia. Russia blew up the Kharkovka dam and flooded Kherson (people seem to have already forgotten this) and got away with it. The Zaporizhzhia power plant is one of the next logical escalations and in line with Russia's continual nuclear threats. Blowing up the plant gives them plausible deniability whilst unleashing devastating nuclear consequences for Ukraine.

Ukraine are taking the threat seriously.

I agree with you sadly. At this point I expect nothing is beyond Russia in their efforts to destroy Ukraine and everyone/ everything in it. This is genocide.

@MissConductUS

Thanks!

Your input is always well worth reading.

@MissConductUS

I very much hope you are right.

50-70k is still an awful lot of adversaries to have in front of you, and they will still have to be dealt with if they decide to move.

Are their Ls of C that messed up that they can only get significant numbers to the Bakhmut area?

They started attacking Bahkmut late last summer, and the easy logistics were I think a factor in its selection. They still have short GLOCs back to Russia in that area. It's harder for Russia to move troops to the south, or Crimea. Ukraine is attacking railroads and bridges for just that reason.

You've touched on an important military advantage Ukraine has, Interior Lines of Communication. These allow Ukraine to move supplies and troops more quickly and efficiently.

About the ZNPP it could happen, and Zelenskyy and others seem to believe it will.

But it's also worth bearing in mind that Russia absolutely loves to scare everyone shitless and cause panic. That too is a Win for them - remember the endless nuclear threats, particularly at the beginning.

No one knows what will happen. Zelenskyy etc are taking it very seriously - and that in itself may just be enough to scare Russia off it, at least for now.

I will be grimly unsurprised if they do, and regard it neutrally if they don't - because they could, in future, unless they are fucked off with large shovels to the far side of fuckery.

I thought the troop build up was near Kreminna not Bakhmut??

This is the latest from Bakhmut:
https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/07/04/frontline-report-ukraine-advances-1-5-km-near-bakhmut-taking-one-of-two-main-russian-fortifications-near-the-city/

There's also been noise of big moves to the north of Bakhmut coming from Russian sources.

There are Ukrainian claims that Russia has used the chemical Lewisite (a derivative of arsenic) near Bakhmut today as well. This ISN'T confirmed independentally. There are videos circulating of a cloud of gas.

I think its interesting we are seeing a lot of noise about the nuclear plant just as Russia seems to be seeing set back around the only success they've had post initial invasion.

Its being said that gains around Bakhmut arent as good as its been on other fronts too. There seems to be more movement around Robotyne towards Tokmak since the last report.

The next week is going to be interesting.

The Russians have lost a MIG-31 near Alaska.

https://www.newsweek.com/mig-crash-reported-russian-aircraft-detected-alaska-1810850

That's. Unfortunate.

Are those airplanes still coming into our airspace as frequently as they were? Or has it got quieter?

Tim White AT TWMCLtd
Ukrainian TV channels broadcast a chilling warning tonight, which is also on radio and most of the internet channels too.

The bell signifies radiation danger.
The sound like a train horn means evacuate the city.
After these signals turn on the TV/radio and await instruction

Prayers for Ukraine 🇺🇦

Not seen any credible data to judge one way or the other, official numbers it only gets into the public domain belatedly, often via an FOI type request or a statement in Parliament.

For context there were always been peaks and troughs in the activity of the the long range bit of the Russian air force, even long before Ukraine kicked off.

I'd speculate that with a lot of the Tu-95 force tied up carrying out cruise missile attacks there may be less going on (e.g. less of the long range flights to Cuba), but the anti-submarine part of that force that used to operate regularly in northern waters may well still be active....

P.S. belated happy Independence day to @MissConductUS

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-4-2023

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces appear to be focusing on creating an asymmetrical attrition gradient that conserves Ukrainian manpower at the cost of a slower rate of territorial gains, while gradually wearing down Russian manpower and equipment. The current pace of Ukrainian operations is not indicative of a stalemate or evidence that Ukraine cannot retake large areas.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least four sectors of the front and advanced on July 4.
• Russian and Ukrainian officials escalated their rhetoric surrounding the situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on July 5, but Russia is likely focused on accusing Ukraine of irresponsible actions around the ZNPP including setting conditions for a possible false flag attack. Russia remains unlikely to generate a radiological incident at the ZNPP at this time.
• The reported reorganization of Russian internal security organs suggests that the Kremlin has not yet concluded that it has effectively neutralized the threats of future armed rebellions following the Wagner Group’s June 23-24 rebellion.
• Russian authorities are absolving Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin of financial responsibility for damages caused by the Wagner Group rebellion and reportedly returned significant liquid assets to Prigozhin, possibly as part of the deal negotiated between Putin, Prigozhin, and Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko.
• The official Chechen response to an attack against a Russian opposition journalist in Chechnya may impact Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov’s standing in the Russian ultranationalist information space.
• Kadyrov’s prominence in the broader Russian information space will likely force Kadyrov to choose between preserving his regime and his support in the ultranationalist information space, however.
• Russia is reportedly forming a new combined arms army as part of the Northern Fleet, likely in order to posture its preparedness against NATO.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a drone attack on Moscow Oblast and Novaya Moskva on July 4.
• Russian conducted limited ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line and south of Kreminna.
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces escalated ground attacks in the Bakhmut area.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line on July 4.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces conducted ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast.
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Orikhiv in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russia continues efforts to mobilize its defense industrial base (DIB).
• Russian officials continue to deport Ukrainian children to Russia under the guise of providing pediatric healthcare.

Expanded:
Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov reported on July 4 that Ukrainian forces are performing their main task of destroying Russian manpower, equipment, fuel depots, artillery, and air defenses and that a “war of destruction is equal to a war of kilometers.”[1] Danilov’s assessment underlines the prioritization of Ukraine’s ongoing campaign to attrit Russian manpower and assets over attempting to conduct massive sweeping mechanized maneuvers to regain large swaths of territory rapidly.

I tend to trust the ISW and really hope that the below is true, it just seems to run contrary to everything that's being said elsewhere:

• Russian and Ukrainian officials escalated their rhetoric surrounding the situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on July 5, but Russia is likely focused on accusing Ukraine of irresponsible actions around the ZNPP including setting conditions for a possible false flag attack. Russia remains unlikely to generate a radiological incident at the ZNPP at this time.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️OSCE Parliamentary Assembly recognizes Russia as state sponsor of terrorism. https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-delegation-osce-parliamentary-assembly-recognizes-russia-as-state-sponsor-of-terrorism/

Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant again lost connection to its main external power line overnight on July 4, reported Ukraine's state nuclear energy agency Energoatom. https://kyivindependent.com/energoatom-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-again-loses-connection-to-its-main-power-line/

⚡️Zelensky says world should show Russia (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-says-world-should-show-russia-readiness-to-react-to-potential-attack-on-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant/) readiness to react in case of nuclear plant attack.

President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his evening address, citing intelligence, that Russia is "preparing a provocation" at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. [as of yesterday evening] https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-russia-prepares-to-damage-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-zelensky-warns/

⚡️Military: Ukrainian forces advance 2 km in Berdiansk direction. https://kyivindependent.com/military-ukraine-advances-2-km-in-berdiansk-direction/

⚡️Russia shells Sumy Oblast 268 times in a single day. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-attacks-sumy-oblast-268-times-in-a-single-day/

⚡️Bloomberg: Russia eyes Chechens, convicts to avoid full mobilization. https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-russia-eyes-chechens-conscripts-to-avoid-full-mobilization/

⚡️UK armed forces chief: Russia has lost half its combat capability in Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/uk-armed-forces-chief-russia/

⚡️UK Defense Ministry: Any Kremlin's moves against Surovikin likely to cause division https://kyivindependent.com/uk-defense-intelligence-kremlins-moves-against-surovikin-likely-cause-division/

The Dutch government announced another aid package for Ukraine worth 118 million euros (about $128 million) on July 4, which will go toward the country’s humanitarian and economic needs.

https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-says-world-should-show-russia-readiness-to-react-to-potential-attack-on-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant/

⚡️General Staff: Possible cholera outbreaks in occupied part of Kherson Oblast. https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-possible-cholera-outbreaks-in-occupied-kherson-oblast/

Bulgarian minister New military aid package for Ukraine 'taking shape.’ Just like with Sofia's previous military aid packages, the minister did not reveal its exact content.
He has however noted that the previous two shipments were "quite serious." https://kyivindependent.com/bulgarian-minister-new-military-aid-package-for-ukraine-taking-shape/ [Bulgaria has been very tightlipped about its aid but there are hints now and then it's given a lot]

Media: Zelensky to visit Bulgaria. https://kyivindependent.com/media-zelensky-to-visit-bulgaria/

⚡️Air Force: 26 drones shot down over Ukraine over past day. https://kyivindependent.com/air-force-26-drones-shot-down-in-ukraine-over-past-day/

Italy has frozen about 2 billion euros ($2.5 billion) in Russian oligarchs' assets since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year, the country's central bank said on July 4, as cited by Reuters. https://kyivindependent.com/italy-has-frozen-2-5-billion-worth-of-russian-assets/

https://kyivindependent.com/investigative-stories-from-ukraine-journalists-identify-russian-brigade-allegedly-involved-in-kakhovka-dam-explosion/ Ukrainian journalists identified that commanders and troops of Russia’s 205th Separate Cossack Motor Rifle Brigade were stationed at the occupied Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant at the time of the June 6 dam explosion

⚡️Head of regional recruitment center in Kramatorsk district charged with forging documents. https://kyivindependent.com/the-head-of-regional-recrutiment-kramatorsk-district-falsified-documents-for-the-departure-of-men-the-dbr/

⚡️598 libraries have been damaged in Ukraine as result of Russia's invasion. https://kyivindependent.com/598-libraries-have-been-damaged-in-ukraine-as-result-of-russian/

⚡️Authorities to seal parts of Kyiv Pechersk Lavra. https://kyivindependent.com/authorities-to-inspect-and-seal-parts-of-kyiv-pechersk-lavra/

Medium troops loss, no less than 36 artillery gone and 9 MLRS!

@Igotjelly they tend to be cautious and rational in their assessments so maybe they're right.

I wonder if it's all a game on Russia's part. Not for Zelenskyy though. The possibility is too serious for Ukraine. It's also possible that if Russia does anything at all, it'll be when they are withdrawing from the ZNPP.

I do wonder if China and India have drawn a gigantic red line on this though. Allowing nuclear terrorism to take place is bad for the whole damn world.

I really hope they don't do it, but if they do then I hope it turns China and India away from them

Ft article this morning on how Xi personally warned Putin off using nukes at their face to face meeting in March. US officials are saying the Chinese are taking all the credit for stopping Putin using tactical nukes though the US, UK and France have all said they will use conventional weapons if Putin does.

China’s ministry of foreign affairs did not immediately respond to a request for comment. But a former government official confirmed that Xi told Putin personally not to use nuclear weapons, noting that China’s stance against their use was included in its position paper on peace in Ukraine.

and

If Russia were to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, “it’s all downside for China”, one official said.

and
^^
But the war is threatening to scupper China’s efforts to drive a wedge between Europe and the US, according to the senior Chinese government adviser.
^^
A Russian nuclear strike on Ukraine or one of its European allies would risk turning the continent against China, the adviser said, while sustained pressure from Beijing to prevent such an act might help improve relations with the continent.

Shi Yinhong, professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing, said that “Russia has never and will never have China’s approval for using nuclear weapons”. If Russia used nuclear weapons against Ukraine, “China will further distance itself from Russia”, he added

^^

^^
People close to the Kremlin say the Russian leader independently decided that tactical nuclear weapons would not give Russia an advantage after projecting scenarios resulting from their use. A nuclear strike was likely to turn areas that Putin has claimed for Russia into an irradiated wasteland while doing little to help his forces advance, the people said.Putin mentioned nuclear weapons again last month as Ukraine’s counter-offensive began, saying Russia had delivered tactical warheads to Belarus. Putin quickly added, however, that there was “no need” to do this because Russia’s forces were holding back Ukraine’s advance.

Kyiv has meanwhile expressed concern that Russia could instead cause an accident at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant — the largest in Europe, which Russian forces have occupied since March 2022 — and deny responsibility

But the statement indicated that even China may be unable to fully deter Putin, said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. “Nuclear weapons are the ultimate insurance Putin has against losing this war catastrophically.”

why deny whilst also claim responsibility at the same time? To play with Xi and Chinese public opinion?

If Xi has personally warned them I can't see a deliberate ignoring of that is going to go down well even if it's done in the form of 'an accidental incident' or framed as Ukraine doing it.

If Xi has personally warned them I can't see a deliberate ignoring of that is going to go down well even if it's done in the form of 'an accidental incident' or framed as Ukraine doing it.

No, it wouldn't be forgotten would it? It would redouble China's work to gain control of the strings in Russia.

Having said that, having a petulant, aggressive, self-pitying shrike on a leash isn't safe. Might well turn around and spear China itself with its sharp bill.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

The head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, will visit Beijing on July 10, — Reuters.
Borrell will meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang to discuss the Russian-Ukrainian war, cooperation between Beijing and Moscow, human rights and other strategic issues.

In Russia, they do not agree to the connection to SWIFT of the subsidiary of Rossеlhosbank for the continuation of the grain agreement.
The ministry also said that they see no reason to extend the grain agreement after July 17 and "are making efforts to ensure that all vessels participating in it can leave the Black Sea" before that date.

NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg said that he had a "very good" conversation with Zelenskyy on the eve of the summit in Vilnius

🇱🇹 President of Lithuania Nausėda said that at the NATO summit in Vilnius, it would be possible to agree on such commitments to Ukraine that will not disappoint it.

Xi Jinping warns Putin against using nuclear weapons in Ukraine
This is reported by the Financial Times citing Western and Chinese officials.
It is noted that the president of the Russian Federation and the leader of China discussed this issue during Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow in March 2023.
According to FT interlocutors, this situation shows that the Chinese leader is worried about the war in Ukraine, despite Moscow's support.

Chairman of the NATO Military Committee, Rob Bauer, said that in the event of a Russian attack on the Zaporizhzhia NPP, its consequences would affect the whole world.
He clarified that since it will be an ecological and medical disaster, it will go beyond NATO and security issues

Russia is preparing a new action plan for the Zaporizhzhia NPP, — Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba.
"The Russian Federation received clear signals not only from Ukraine but also from other countries about the inadmissibility of its plans to blow up the ZNPP. That is, it will be much more difficult for them to implement.

🔻Ukraine is strengthening its positions on the border with Belarus with personnel and equipment in connection with the situation around the Zaporizhzhia NPP, — Commander of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Serhii Nayev

For the second day in a row, explosions have been heard in several temporarily occupied settlements in Zaporizhzhia, Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov reported.

🇺🇦🇸🇪 Volodymyr Zelenskyy had a telephone conversation with the Prime Minister of Sweden, Ulf Kristersson.

The Russians shelled Pervomaiske in the Kharkiv region with a high-explosive shell — 31 victims are currently known, including seven children. In particular, a 10-month-old baby and a one-year-old child are among the victims.[there have been fears that now the cities are fairly well protected, Russia is concentrating on smaller towns and villages]

Italy froze the assets of Russian oligarchs for $2.5 billion
Italy has confiscated assets, including bank accounts, luxury villas, yachts, and cars, as part of European Union sanctions against the Kremlin and its backers.

In Tel Aviv, the driver rammed a group of people and opened fire on passers-by

Live: Ukraine Telegram

🪖A brief summary of our results from the Deputy Defense Minister: we are advancing, the enemy is not.
- Bakhmut. There is progress on the southern flank. On the northern flank, fighting continues. In the city itself, it is difficult for the enemy to move.
- At the same time, the enemy is offensive at the Lyman, Avdiivka and Maryinka directions. However, it cannot advance.
- There are successes of the Ukrainian army in the south. More on this later.

In Moscow, the Armenian Apostolic Church "blessed" the Armenian Arbat battalion for the war against Ukraine. It will be sent to Donbas.

Wagner PMC will be replaced at the front by even more prisoners and Kadyrovites, Bloomberg writes, citing European intelligence officials. They are already being prepared to be sent in the coming weeks to "plug the holes". After Wagner's men left Bakhmut in late May, Russia had to transfer many soldiers from other parts of the frontline to the city. It is unknown how many prisoners and Chechens will be recruited. Currently, the Russian army has about 15,000 soldiers from among prisoners. Chechnya will not send many soldiers to the war - there are already 7,000 of its fighters at the front, and another 2,400 are in training.

Joe Biden insists that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen should become the next NATO Secretary General, The Telegraph reports. In private conversations, she told Biden that she would not be able to take up any position in NATO until at least next year.

Oddly enough:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12266557/Moment-RAF-Typhoon-intercepts-Russian-Doomsday-plane-scrambled-close-NATO-border.html

The British fighters, based in Estonia as part of an on-going NATO mission to secure the alliances borders, were pictured flying along-side the larger aircraft in images released by the RAF on Tuesday.

From the cockpit, the British pilots also snapped photos of the two Russian Su-30M Flanker Hs, which were escorting the Russian doomsday plane.

The Typhoons followed the Russian air force jet and its accompanying fighters as it flew in and out of the Kaliningrad region, which borders Poland and Lithuania (both NATO members) and the Baltic Sea.

'RAF Typhoons in Estonia scrambled today to intercept a Russian Air Force Tu-214 flying in international airspace under the control of @NATO allies as it transited south and then north again with 2x Su-30M Flanker Hs between mainland Russia and the Kaliningrad Oblast,' the RAF wrote in a message on Twitter.

In order for Moscow's aircraft to reach it without flying through NATO airspace, Russian pilots must fly between Estonia and Finland (which are also NATO members) and over the Baltic Sea

NATO has reported a rise in VIP flights to and from Kaliningrad in recent months.

It was not known who was onboard the Tu-214SR during Tuesday's incident, but it is understood the plane is only used for 'people of importance'.

'It is possible it could have had Putin on board or one of his top lieutenants,' The Sun reported, citing a source.

Little information is available about the full capabilities of the 214SR plane, but it is known to carry a MRC-411 multi-intelligence payload - which includes a number of sensors and radar technology.

Four onboard generators provide the on-bard systems with plenty of power, while external fuel tanks allow the jet to stay in the air for up to 10,000 kilometers.

This, it is understood, is to allow the Russian president to stay in the air in the event of nuclear war, while still giving commands to his forces on the ground.

Two 214SRs entered service in 2008, but they didn't become public knowledge until a few years later when one featured in the Moscow air show.

They have been seen spotted flying over high profile events, such as at the 20148 Sochi Winter Olympics, and over Crimea.

Several Russian aircraft have been intercepted by British jets in recent weeks.

On June 20, RAF Typhoons were sent up to meet a Russian Navy Tupolev Tu-134 and two Sukhoi Su-27 flankers.

A near-identical incident happened on June 16, which saw RAF Typhoons intercept a Russian Air Force IL-20 COOT A and two SU-27 near Estonian airspace.

On June 9, British jets were scrambled for a second time in 24 hour when Typhoons intercepted an Antonov An-12 Cub and an Antonov An-72 Coaler that were flying south from mainland Russia towards the Kaliningrad Oblast.

The same fighters were then re-tasked to intercept two Tupolev Tu-22M Backfire bombers and two Su-30SM Flanker H fighters that were detected flying from mainland Russia over the Gulf of Finland and the Baltic Sea, the RAF said.

And this came after RAF Typhoons and Swedish Air Force Gripens were scrambled to intercept a Russian Air Force IL-20 Coot A and a Su-27 Flanker on June 8. The Russian jets were flying near Swedish airspace on this occasion.