Ukraine Invasion: Part 42

[MagicFox]

Setting this up early given the speed of current events

**

1. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

1. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

1. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

Thanks @ReleaseTheDucksOfWar - although in terms of the broad scale of what this government is doing, it is just a small nod in the right direction.

Been meaning to post this though - https://www.timesofisrael.com/new-exhibition-lifts-jewish-rescue-efforts-in-ukraine-out-of-the-wars-shadow/

Which I found interesting, about the differences being active rather than passive can make. Hopefully that is true for Ukraine as a whole too - that fighting back and being active ultimately helps with the mental challenges.

According to ds, who did his dissertation on China, social media, Xi and Pooh, he Great Fire Wall of China is pretty impermeable because it's been in place a long time, as well as their structures for controlling discussion (hence the importance of memes and why Pooh is banned ) whereas Russia doesn't gave the same level of control so are not able to cut themselves off from the World Wide Web, even when they want to.

⚡️Lukashenko claims Prigozhin back in Russia https://kyivindependent.com/lukashenko-claims-prigozhin-back-in-russia/
"As for Prigozhin, he's in St. Petersburg. He is not on the territory of Belarus," Lukashenko told reporters.

Whens the last time he’s been seen in public? They have tall apartment buildings in St Petersburg don’t they….?

Russia building its own domestic Internet was reported several years ago. Of course they were doing the reporting so impossible to gauge how effective/successful they were but controlling the flow of information in and out of Russia would be the ultimate in controlling the propaganda narrative.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-50902496

@DrBlackbird It's curious isn't it?

Rumours that Surovikin is in 'protective custody'; differing stories of Prigozhin. The thought scuttles across that could Lukashenko have doublecrossed Prigozhin and sold him out? Unlikely, admittedly

@Naem That was a moving article, an aspect of the war that had been totally unknown generally outside the people involved.

The old man at the end, who just wants his son to be safe ...

@prettybird that dissertation sounds brilliant

@Greenshake - its actual title is even more impressive but I can't remember it

I helped proof read it and it was really interesting.

The ruble is under stress again

Anton Gerashchenko
AT Gerashchenko_en

The ruble is losing some of its value in Russia. The ruble-dollar exchange rate on Moscow Exchange is above 92 rubles for the first time since March 2022; the ruble-euro exchange rate has risen above 101 rubles on the stock exchange. This has led to a search not only for the causes but also for the culprits for this weakening of the ruble. Key Russian regulator, the Central Bank and its head Elvira Nabiullina, consider the existing monetary policy of the Central Bank and the floating exchange rate to be effective. However, in her opinion, the ruble's weakening is due to the dynamics of foreign trade. In effect, Nabiullina not only removes responsibility from herself, but shifts it to the Ministry of Industry and Trade (which is responsible for foreign trade) and, respectively, its head Denis Manturov. After all, import substitution has failed (by them), and the goods necessary for the Russian economy can only be purchased with dollars and euros - which leads to an outflow of currency and an increase in its value. Moreover, the Central Bank's inability to regulate the exchange rate has also led to a policy of promoting settlements in national currencies. It is as a result of this policy, actively promoted by, among others, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, that Russia has accumulated huge amounts of rupees, dirhams, liras, even Nicaraguan cordobos. None of them are able to support the ruble when it falls because, unlike the dollar and euro, these currencies have limited liquidity. The model of de-dollarization and parallel imports, which Russia has been implemented, proved unsustainable. The Central Bank does not have the currency to stabilize the ruble today. Since the crisis is systemic and cannot be solved using only the tools in possession of the Bank of Russia tools, one can assume that the problem will be solved by administrative methods at the government level. Russia does not want to admit failure with "de-dollarization". This means that it will push the country into hyperinflation. - Any "rubleification", "de-dollarization" and other "transition to settlements in national currencies" will literally sink the ruble. But Russian officials decided to prove their theory is correct. - Russians started buying gold and real estate because the ruble might lose a lot of its value soon. - Russian officials and oligarchs are not facing ruin because they don't keep their money in rubles or yuans. And obviously their money is not in Russia. And the rest of the Russians might expect all their accounts being frozen at some point.

Hello there everyone. I'm still here, have been busy working and every time I think I half understand the Prigozhin situation it takes a turn for the weird.

>Great Fire Wall of China is pretty impermeable because it's been in place a long time

My source in the CCP said the answer was to VPN via Macao. Until her messages stopped.

I'll elaborate on that later.

*Great Fire Wall of China is pretty impermeable because it's been in place a long time

My source in the CCP said the answer was to VPN via Macao. *

I used to spend a fair bit of time in Beijing and Shanghai....the hotel internet was always, shall we say, slightly idiosyncratic and shall we say "blocky", certainly if you were trying to access certain sites, for example, looking for updates on world news from some media sources.

I gather since my time it's certainly not improved.

My partner goes to China at times. It certainly hasn't improved in the last years.

Many sources are reporting that the US will announce the provision of cluster munitions to Ukraine in a new aid package tomorrow. The WSJ is also reporting that there is complete agreement in the government to supply ATACMS long-range ballistic missiles, and it's just waiting for a final signoff from the Anglophobe Commander in Chief.

This is what cluster munitions, delivered by artillery, look like in use. You can see their usefulness in clearing Russian trenches and other defensive positions. The US has a massive supply in the locker, and their use would allow the conservation of other mentions that are in shorter supply.

https://twitter.com/region776/status/1676953812190527491

@Usou, this is why Russia is committing so many troops to Bahkmut. They're losing there. Even the "elite" airborne units there seem to suffer from a loss of command and cohesion.

https://twitter.com/WhereisRussia/status/1676931336240611333

Re cluster munitions: I can see why they are useful in clearing trenches and also for clearing minefields. I can also understand why they are banned in civilian areas.

I know the good thing is that they are all supposed to explode on impact and that if they didn't, at least they're on the surface and easily visible, unlike land mines.

But, given this is unfortunately a long running war, what happens if and when the vegetation grows over and around the unexploded bomblets? They'll not be visible then

MissConductUS, watching that video, I think Ukraine will be able to find a use for cluster munitions. Impressive depth and breadth. Will really help to clear out those defences.

I am glad I am able to get into twitter links again without signing in or registering.

The UAF will keep records of where they are fired, then return and clear them after securing the area. That is what civilized armies do. The danger is also minuscule compared to the risk of the hundreds of thousands of mines the Russians have already placed in unknown locations. Most of those have been intentionally concealed.

That's reassuring @MissConductUS

I would just add that Ukraine is choosing to use them on its own territory. They know the risks and the burden of clearing them afterward. They've obviously judged that the risk is less than that posed to their citizens by the risks of Russian occupation.

Online life in China. Anecdotal case study about double lives in a controlling society.

In brief and being deliberately vague. In 2019 I was sometimes working with a PostGrad from China who was on a placement. They were not my responsibility and it was more paths crossing than anything else. A curiosity about idiomatic English and a wry sense of humour that that a little off base interested me enough to talk about things that were not work related. And generally fail to explain idiom to any satisfaction.

I was never too sure how much of what I was told was true, but a picture emerged that this was a CCP Golden Child that a lot of family hope rested on (and who was bored of living in a Chinese bubble in a global city). Seemed to be living in a surveilled situation in organised accommodation.

However, there was a secret life going on. Two phones, the official one and the London Android. This was their chance of a Rumspringa year before going home to hopefully rise as the favoured ones rise. Came over for a meal at our place a couple of times and we saw an exhibition together. Told me about some activities that certainly didn't accord with party ideals.

Then the pandemic hit. Chinese placement PostGrad held out isolated south of the river, WFH or Working From Hive, and, I think, started to climb the walls as London fun opportunities were no more. But back home the lockdowns were tougher.

Eventually made a break for it on the then weekly flight to Beijing. Quarantine. Back to home city. More quarantine. We exchanged a few messages and I found out a little more about lockdowns and relaxations in China. Then... nothing.

MMBaranova, interesting tale, thanks for sharing. Do you think PostGrad came to any harm or perhaps he (I assume it is a him) stepped up to assume his lofty mantle and had to cast off less ideologically correct friendships.

Recommend the latest Defence in Depth episode from Dom.

One of my favourite lines from it is around the fact that there is a golden thread that runs through Ukrainian society, between and the civilian world and the military like a self-reinforcing circle. There is no similar thread running through Putin's campaign.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-6-2023

Key Takeaways:

• Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko stated that Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and Wagner forces are not in Belarus as of July 6, indicating that Prigozhin may be failing to uphold the deal Lukashenko mediated between Prigozhin and Russian President Vladimir Putin following Wagner’s armed rebellion on June 24.
• Russian sources also indicated that Prigozhin is in Russia, although ISW cannot confirm Prigozhin’s whereabouts at this time.
• Lukashenko appears to be distancing himself from the deal he reportedly mediated while continuing to tout his ability to mediate between Putin and a formerly loyal lieutenant in the first place, thus still highlighting Putin’s weakness.
• Prigozhin’s ability to freely operate in Russia suggests that Prigozhin is still protected by some security guarantees and/or that the Kremlin continues to prioritize undermining his reputation in Russia over targeting Prigozhin physically or legally.
• Select Russian ultranationalists criticized Russian state propaganda for attempting to villainize Prigozhin, however, suggesting that the Kremlin’s attempt to alienate the ultranationalist community from Prigozhin is not succeeding.
• Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 6 and are continuing efforts to gradually degrade Russian manpower and logistics assets.
• Ukrainian and Russian officials largely de-escalated their rhetoric regarding the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on July 6.
• Russian political actors continue attempts to court or control Russian milbloggers, indicating that many view the milblogger community as a critical constituency.
• Russian opposition media outlet Vertska reported that Russian forces and occupation authorities are conducting a campaign of systematic religious persecution in occupied Ukraine.
• Russian milbloggers claimed that aspects of Russian defensive operations in southern Ukraine have severe limitations and may not be as effective as Russian sources have previously portrayed them.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces conducted ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Visual evidence confirms that Ukrainian forces have advanced southwest of Bakhmut as of July 6.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka-Donetsk City areas.
• Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations along the administrative border between Zaporizhia and Donetsk oblasts and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russian officials continue efforts to create territorial defense units in Russian border oblasts.
• Occupation officials continue efforts to forcibly assimilate Ukrainian legal and cultural traditions into the Russian system in occupied territories.
• Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko claimed on July 6 that Russia will transfer all planned tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus by the end of 2023, if not earlier.