Ukraine Invasion: Part 42

[MagicFox]

Setting this up early given the speed of current events

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Musk himself tweeted this an hour ago - you awake from a deep trance,
step away from the phone
to see your friends & family.
Maybe he's trying to kill social media from within. Massive social engineering.
I'll miss Twitter for politics, but equally for art.

how the fuck did he become the richest man in the world?

With the deeply unethical financing of his Twitter purchase and his lack of humanity, I wish someone would take his batteries out and let him march into a corner and wind down with his little tin mouth gradually closing into silence.

Well Elon still isn't as dumb as the Russians:

Dmitri Alperovitch at DAlperovitch
Russian MoD has reportedly terminated food catering contract for the military with Prigozhin’s Concord company, which is employing several thousands of cooks and storekeepers

robin fenn at robinfenn5
Oh this should be entertaining, firing the armys food catering company in the middle of a war where you already have a terrible logistics

Oh I do hope that one's true. That would, indeed, be marvellously stupid.

HOW ADVANCED IS RUSSIAN-CHINESE MILITARY COOPERATION?

warontherocks.com/2023/06/29000/

Sorry for the shouty caps

"In determining the trajectory of the relationship over the next three to five years, analysts should focus on the extent to which China is supplying Russia with military and dual-use technologies and how much real assistance Russia is providing to China through joint projects such as the early warning system and advanced heavy-lift helicopters. In the joint exercises and operations sphere, observers should examine whether or not China and Russia are conducting military exercises that are provocative to third-party states, such as in the Greenland, Iceland, United Kingdom (GIUK) gap or near U.S. territory in the Pacific, or if either undertakes missions that are primarily of importance to the other, such as joint naval activities in disputed areas of the South China Sea, near Taiwan, or in the Mediterranean or Baltic Seas. In addition, any indication that either side is willing to grant the other long-term access to its military facilities would be a sign of an appreciable advance in military cooperation and mutual trust. These actions would indicate that the two countries are potentially on the path to a deeper level of military cooperation that might create serious threats to U.S. allies and partners and greatly increase the challenge facing U.S. military planners. Evidence that Russia and China are engaging in this type of cooperation will be more significant than further ritual statements about unlimited friendship made at summit meetings"

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-1-2023

Key Takeaways:

• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least four sectors of the frontline on July 1.
• US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley acknowledged that Ukrainian counteroffensive operations will take longer than some Western observers had expected.
• Russian officials and sources celebrated claims that Russian forces defeated small-scale Ukrainian landings in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast on July 1 as if they had won a major victory.
• The exaggerated Russian praise for defeating a small Ukrainian landing suggests either that the Russian military command sincerely fears a Ukrainian attack on east bank Kherson Oblast or that it is desperate for an informational victory following the Wagner Group’s armed rebellion or both.
• Russian forces are likely responding to Ukrainian operations around Bakhmut by pulling forces from elsewhere in Ukraine.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the Russians might initiate an intentional radioactive leak at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) as part of a potential Russian strategy to freeze the war.
• Russian propagandists are likely conducting an information campaign to destroy the Wagner Group’s reputation as a uniquely effective fighting force in support of the Russian Ministry of Defense’s (MoD) effort to dismantle the Wagner Group and integrate former Wagner fighters into MoD structures.
• Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Ukrainian forces continued to conduct ground attacks around Bakhmut.
• Russian forces continued to conduct limited ground attacks in and transfer airborne (VDV) elements to the Bakhmut area.
• Russian forces continued to conduct limited ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Russian forces continued to counterattack recently-liberated Ukrainian positions on the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russian security procedures on the Kerch Strait bridge are likely slowing down Russian logistics from Russia to occupied Crimea.
• Iran may be sending materiel and personnel to Russia to help construct a factory in the Republic of Tatarstan that will reportedly make Iranian combat drones.
• Ukrainian and Western sources continue to report on the abductions of Ukrainian children and adults in the occupied territories.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

Russia has considered blowing up the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant remotely after handing it to Ukraine, according to Zelensky. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-russia-could-remotelyzelensky-russia-could-blow-up-zaporizhzhia-plant-after-handing-to-ukraine/

⚡️ Zelensky concerned over delayed F-16 pilot training.
"There is no schedule of training missions, this is being delayed. I don't know why (Western allies) are doing it," Zelensky said in a joint conference with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez on July 1. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-concerned-over-delayed-training-on-f-16/

⚡️Heavy fighting is ongoing in the area of the destroyed Antonivsky Bridge in Kherson Oblast, according to Southern Operational Command spokeswoman Natalia Humeniuk. The emphasis is on counterbattery fire across the front line that follows the contour of the Dnipro River running through the area.

Ukrainian forces are making progress and moving forward along the southern front line, General Oleksandr Tarnavsky, the commander of Ukraine's military fighting in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, reported on July 1.

Russia has canceled its international air show, MAKS, due to security concerns, according to the U.K. Ministry of Defense. https://kyivindependent.com/uk-russia-cancels-air-show-due-to-security-concerns/

⚡️Kyiv authorities report shooting down all Russian drones in latest aerial attack on capital. https://kyivindependent.com/kyiv-authorities-report-shooting-down-all-russian-drones-in-latest-aerial-attack-on-capital/

Following mutiny, Russian state media downplays Wagner's battlefield results
https://kyivindependent.com/military-ukrainian-forces-advancing-along-southern-front-line/

Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez told Ukraine's parliament on July 1st 55m euros would be allocated through the World Bank to support businesses and equip schools with environment-friendly energy systems. https://kyivindependent.com/spain-to-allocate-55-million-euros-for-ukraines-schools-businesses/

The United Nations Development Program (UNDP) transferred 430 generators purchased with funds from the Japanese government for Kherson Oblast, the Reconstruction Ministry reported on July 1. https://kyivindependent.com/undp-transfers-430-generators-to-kherson-oblast/

President Volodymyr Zelensky on July 1 signed a decree imposing sanctions against 189 Russian nationals, two Belarusians, and Tamaz Gaiashvili, the founder of privately-owned Georgian Airways that is now flying to Russia. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-imposes-sanctions-against/

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin's admission that the Wagner mercenary group was government-funded could make it easier to try him for war crimes, the Guardian reported on July 1. https://kyivindependent.com/guardian-putin-wagner-admission-could-help-try-him-for-war-crimes/

⚡️ All Covid-19 quarantine measures officially lifted in Ukraine https://kyivindependent.com/health-ministry-covid-19-measures-lifted-in-ukraine/

slightly higher losses again, well into double figures for artillery losses again.

UNITED24 Telegram

CIA director William Burns secretly visited Kyiv to discuss with Volodymyr Zelenskyy plans to liberate Ukrainian territories, The Washington Post.
The purpose of his visit was to confirm the commitment of the Biden administration to exchange intelligence, and also, according to the publication, a number of other issues related to the deoccupation of Ukrainian territories were discussed.

Russian dissatisfaction with the war in Ukraine opens up new opportunities for the CIA
This was stated by the director of intelligence services, William Burns, reports Reuters.

A special nuclear monitoring aircraft WC-135R Constant Phoenix arrived in Europe to take atmospheric air samples and detect radioactive emissions

One day of war costs the Russian budget $1 billion, writes Time

Spain will send four more Leopard tanks to Ukraine, as well as armored personnel carriers and a portable field hospital.

Kremlin Takes Control of Prigozhin's Empire, — The Washington Post.
The first to fall was the "Patriot" media group, which allowed Prigozhin to improve the image of "Wagner", despite the taboo on mentioning it on television. "But it will be much more difficult, if not impossible, to close the network of militant recruitment points throughout Russia, stop operations in Africa and the Middle East, and liquidate Prigozhin's catering company, which is the backbone of the empire," the publication notes.
As for the Concord company, which supplied products for the Russian army, it will be complicated for it to find a replacement of the same scale, the publication emphasizes.

The Russian occupiers cremate their dead without accounting in order not to pay compensation, — General Staff
In particular, it was established that one of these crematoriums currently operates 24/7 on the territory of the Berdiansk port [this figures with what I've heard from Kherson friends]

Heavy fighting continues in the area of the Antonivsky Bridge: fierce counter-battery fighting between our defenders and the occupiers in this area, — Humenyuk
The Dnipro River was somewhat deformed, due to the fact that the occupiers blew up the Kakhovka Dam.

After the occupiers blew up the Kakhovka HPP dam, archaeologists found a seven-meter boat made of an oak trunk on the shallow bottom of the Dnipro, — Khortytsia National Reserve. Preliminary estimates say the boat may be up to 500 years old.

A monument to the victims of the Russian occupation of the city appeared in Bucha

Live: Ukraine Telegram

[Rumours!] A number of Russian telegram channels claim that Ramzan Kadyrov is dying and is no longer speaking.
Translation: There are reports that Kadyrov is dying and is no longer talking. His kidneys have finally shut down, and dialysis isn't helping. It's possible that these are his last days. What's most worrying about this situation is Adam Kadyrov. If they did this to him while his father was alive, what will happen when he's gone? Poor boy...

Lukashenko signs law banning media from "unfriendly" countries in Belarus
The law provides for the possibility of imposing a ban on the activities of foreign media in the territory of the Republic of Belarus in case of unfriendly actions by foreign states against Belarusian media.

Former Deputy Russian Prosecutor of temporarily occupied Crimea Andrey Fomin drowned while swimming in the Volga.
When Fomin had already swum more than half of the distance, he suddenly became ill. The organizers claim that all participants, admitted to the swim, provided medical certificates, as well as underwent a medical examination in the morning.

Russian men over 60 are already being mobilized into the Russian army. Mikhail Osipenko, born March 4, 1961, was mobilized to the 35th Army of the Russian Federation on June 12, 2023, and two weeks later, he was taken prisoner in the Luhansk Region. He was 62 years old at the time of mobilization.

Chairman of the so-called "Russian parliament" Vyacheslav Volodin says the events of a week ago showed how strongly "the society is consolidated around the president", that "no one supported the rebellion", and that "Putin came out of this as even a bigger leader who strenghtened his position in the country and around the world".

Russian propaganda brochures about the difference between a Russian and a Ukrainian soldiers

These propaganda brochures are essentially pictures. Is this because swathes of the population are illiterate? Its like they are aimed at primary school aged kids.

There are reports that Kadyrov is dying and is no longer talking. His kidneys have finally shut down, and dialysis isn't helping. It's possible that these are his last days

Is this a variation on falling off a balcony? Is anyone ‘senior’ now a risk to Putin?

Finding it hard to believe the Kadyrov rumour tbh.

He was posting selfies of himself and his mate Vlad just the other day.

Oh.

Wondering the same actually!

They got the order of the flags wrong. It is a pictorial documentation of what Russia is inflicting on Ukraine and their own soldiers.

It looks primary school, printed on yellowed paper of the sort from the 70s, with crude graphics portraying good and bad with no nuance. Even managed an unsubtle dig at homosexuality. Reminds me of religious propaganda used to scare people into accepting religion. Amateur and unsubtle. Toilet paper really.

Wonder about the sort of people who would swallow this.

Wonder about the sort of people who would swallow this.

very poorly educated, no experience, used to doing what they are told. And probably drunk.

Is anyone else unable to Like, answer or Tweet now? I get a message along the lines of 'we think you are an automated account'

The average reading age in the UK is actually 9.

Trump speaks at this level and it proved to be an excellent strategy.

Putin's base certainly isn't city based educated middle classes - it's the less educated who are required to serve in the army - people with money can bribe...

So it's a) not really a slur on Russian education being worse than the west b) probably is pitched perfectly at the target audience

I didn't believe that so I checked 😱

You're right, that's a shock

As mentioned elsewhere, what you’re seeing is the various Web 2.0 services that cannot remain unprofitable in this environment, and so are rapidly trying to turn this around outside of “please pay us subscriptions.”

Reddit is in the same boat and is literally breaking the law, as well as being an overall cesspit now.

The corporatisation of the Internet has been terrible for mankind.

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1675520563073220610 travel advisory for this summer

Please forgive me if this is a stupid question, I really know nothing about this stuff, but are they not able to use advertising to be profitable? Or is it about wanting more than advertising can provide?

Twitter and Reddit are not profitable. Musk is trying to make Twitter profitable through layoffs and adding fees. Reddit wants to go public in the next year or so, so they are trying to become profitable by charging for access to their data.

Generative AI platforms scrape data from both to feed their LLMs (large language models). The Gen AI companies free ride off of the data.

I can't see Musk being successful at this rate.