Ukraine Invasion: Part 42

[MagicFox]

Setting this up early given the speed of current events

**

1. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

1. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

1. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

No, not at all and very significant for Ukraine. But another Chernobyl would have been ... well, no words

Thank you @BringBackCoffeeCreams and thanks to your husband for the info. Very much a relief.

That's because Chernobyl was an active reactor when it blew so continued to churn out vast amounts of energy. Zapphorizia is a different type of reactor and has been in cold shutdown for months so that won't happen. It will have much less impact on western Europe than Fukishima did.

Same here, thank you Mr CoffeeCreams and Ducks for asking the question.

Good job I checked as I'd misrembered what he'd said. He said that worse case scenario for Zapphorizia would be around 100th of the event at Fukishima not Chernobyl. So on a scale of 0 to 100 with zero being nothing happening and 100 being Chernobyl, he believes Fukishima would be a 10 and worse case at Zapphorizia would be a 0.1.

@BringBackCoffeeCreams even better! Mr CoffeeCreams, you are a ⭐!

@BringBackCoffeeCreams thank you for that. Very reassuring.

Thank you for the reassurance @BringBackCoffeeCreams

That's reassuring but bear in mind sheep were unfit for consumption in N Wales for years after Chernobyl so 100th is not insignificant

this brings back memories of Chernobyl and how much we weren’t told at the time. Never mind the N Welsh sheep, my parents thought it was safe enough to send me to a summer camp in Kyiv area a year after Chernobyl, I mean I’m still here but we had no clue to the true extent of the radiation damage

Thank you @BringBackCoffeeCreams your husband is a star, as are you ♥️

Daft question but why all the fuss of it’s such a negligible impact? Seems to my layman’s mind that the impact of the dam was much worse.

That's reassuring @BringBackCoffeeCreams

@Igotjelly The impact is negligible to us, but not to locals probably. A nuclear disaster is always risky.

@Mb76 I know what you mean. I was on holiday in Ukraine in July 1986. We just had no idea. The pilot even pointed out the direction of the Chernobyl plant when we flew in the area.

I was away for a week and things have certainly moved quickly.
It's taken me 4 days to catch up on the thread (it was on Thread 41 when I last looked).
Many thanks to all the contributors - especially Ducks - for keeping us all up to date.

It's negligible relative to the impact of Chernobyl but will still result in a huge swathe of land being uninhabitable for hundreds of years. It would permanently displace around a million people. It would also set a very dangerous precedent for other aspiring tyrants.

https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1674818102704369664 Russian denied entry to Moldova kills 2 people

https://twitter.com/aliashukua/status/1674185540730753025 oh no the guard cat has gone missing.

Certainly quite a big deal then. I really hope they don't actually do it. But thanks for the reassurance about the severity.

Russia's inner workings.

ChrisO_wiki
@ChrisO_wiki

1/ A leaked document shows that the Russian Ministry of Defence was notified prior to the mutiny that Wagner would be moving equipment across Russia. However, this was reportedly cover for a plan to capture and remove Defence Minister Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Gerasimov.
2/ According to the document, which has been published by the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel, Wagner Group representative Andrey Troshev informed the MOD leadership that Wagner would be moving its equipment to storage and transfer sites in Russia between 21 June – 5 July.
3/ A VChK-OGPU source says that Russian Air Force Chief Sergey Surovikin, who is reportedly himself an honorary Wagner member, acted as a guarantor of Wagner's good conduct in the operation. However, Surovokin is said to have been aware of the planned mutiny.
4/ The source says that Shoigu learned that the movement of forces was cover for an effort to capture and remove himself and Gerasimov. They are said to have total control over the information that Putin is receiving about the war, and to be misleading him about its true state.
5/ According to VChK-OGPU, "lately Surovikin has been kept away from Putin in every possible way, short-circuiting all reports either through Gerasimov or through fake unit commanders [reporting] from the front.
6/ "Realising that earlier attempts to remove Shoigu and Gerasimov through public discrediting by Prigozhin were unsuccessful, it was decided to use the possibility of the transfer of Wagner forces and resources ...
7/ ...to physically capture Shoigu and Gerasimov and subsequently report to Putin on the true state of affairs.
8/ "Upon learning about the conspirators' intentions, Shoigu managed to report to Putin that a coup d'etat was being prepared to overthrow Putin himself, and to prevent this a preventive strike on the conspirators was required.
9/ "Subsequently, it was also decided to isolate the conspirators among the generals without revealing their involvement in the coup in order to avoid uncontrolled developments among the military at the front, with whom Surovikin has more authority than Gerasimov and Shoigu.
10/ "For the time being, consideration is being given to showing the public that Surovikin has returned to duty in order to defuse tensions within the military."
11/ The reference to reports from "fake commanders" is interesting, as it ties into something I've covered previously – the Russian military's culture of institutional lying, in which commanders at all levels routinely lie about and fake their activities.
12/ This is likely to have had extremely negative consequences for Russian forces, which even pro-Russian commentators say has caused serious harm. There's a high likelihood that Putin is not making decisions based on reliable information
13/ Possibly relatedly, the Redacted 6 Telegram channel recently reported that hundreds of information operations staff from the Russian MOD have arrived in the Luhansk region to shoot fake videos of Russian battlefield successes. According to the channel:
14/ "They are pulling fighters from various units to record them around Luhansk in videos indicating that they were filmed on the front line. Such mass work to create the illusion of well-being raises fears that things are far from smooth at the front, and reports are required."
15/ If this is accurate, it's almost certainly a case of fake "photo reports" [фотоотчетами] being generated for high-level commanders. An operation on the scale described would have to have been authorised by someone at a very senior level.
16/ This raises the question of who the photo reports are intended for – who is the ultimate customer? An obvious possibility is that it's part of an effort to keep Putin happy about the progress of the war by providing him with a stream of fake reports. /end

Interesting narrative in that "leaked" document.

It hinges on the premise that Prigozhin was unable to speak to Putin directly (and was thus "forced" to physically capture Shoigu and Gerasimov in order to report information to Putin).

Does that sound likely?

That Putin's Chef, the one who created the troll farms and whom Putin trusted with that much power over the information environment? Can't get Putin to take his call?

Either the premise (and thus the "leaked" document) is false, or Prigozhin was far, far down Vlad's Xmas card list even before the coup.

11/ The reference to reports from "fake commanders" is interesting, as it ties into something I've covered previously – the Russian military's culture of institutional lying, in which commanders at all levels routinely lie about and fake their activities.

This was known to be a key weakness in the Russian army even before the war. Commanders would routinely report 100% readiness when half of their troops were off base picking crops, with most of their pay going to their commanders.

@notimagain, on the last thread we discussed possible Ukrainian counters to the Russian use of attack helicopters and I predicted that they'd attack the airfields they were operating from. You suggested that surely the Russians would be smart enough to disperse them. They weren't. The airfield in Berdyansk, where many of the rotary wing devils were based, was hit by a missile attack.

https://twitter.com/TheWarArchive/status/1674818762049196032

@PerkingFaintly Hrm, good points. Chris_O tends to be fairly reliable but but he can't know everything.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-30-2023

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least three sectors of the frontline on June 30.
• Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi stated on June 30 that Ukrainian forces continue to advance in eastern and southern Ukraine despite lacking essential resources.
• The Russian information space is reacting disproportionately to the Russian military’s failure to drive a small Ukrainian force from east (left) bank Kherson Oblast. [they are sitting under the Antonovsky bridge and thumbing their noses at considerable Russian efforts to dislodge them, like porcupines showing their annoyed arses at a pile of rabid rabbits]
• Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russian forces and officials are gradually leaving the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) possibly in preparation for an intentional “accident” at the facility.
• Russian forces remain unlikely to cause an intentional “accident” at the ZNPP, and Russia is likely continuing to use the threat of an intentional radiological incident to attempt to constrain Ukrainian counteroffensive actions and Western support for Ukraine ahead of the upcoming NATO summit.
• The Wagner Group is reportedly still actively recruiting personnel within Russia, although it is unclear if new recruits are signing Wagner contracts or military contracts with the MoD.
• The Wagner Group reportedly will operate three large field camps in Belarus and an apparent Belarusian milblogger reported that Wagner Group personnel will deploy to Asipovichy, Belarus, soon.
• A Kremlin-affiliated news outlet reported that the Wagner Group will continue operating in Africa, although the details of its operations remain unclear.
• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin reportedly dissolved his domestic media company Patriot.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces continued to engage in battles along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Ukrainian forces continued to counterattack and reportedly made some gains in the Bakhmut area.
• Ukrainian and Russian forces continued to skirmish on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and Ukrainian forces advanced as of June 30.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and on the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts.
• Russian authorities continue efforts to improve monetary and educational benefits to servicemen in order to retain loyalty and incentivize military service.
• Russian officials and occupation authorities are attempting to explain away the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.

Extra:

• *ISW has previously assessed that Russian forces would not be able to control the consequences of an intentional radiological incident at the ZNPP and that a radiological incident could further degrade Russia’s ability to cement its occupation of southern Ukraine by leaving areas uninhabitable and ungovernable. [they are ignoring the fact that Russia lays waste to the areas it can't control from vindictiveness]

Russian forces could conduct several possible radiological man-made incidents at the ZNPP, some more serious than others. Russian forces could discharge irradiated water from the ZNPP into the Kakhovka Reservoir to disrupt a potential Ukrainian crossing of the now largely drained reservoir. Russian forces could also attempt to create a radiological plume to cover a larger area of southern Ukraine, although the reactors are designed to make doing so difficult. The prevailing winds in Zaporizhia Oblast are most often from the north from June 9 to September 3, although forecasted wind directions in the area following the reported July 5 evacuation deadline include days of predominantly easterly winds.[28] A radiation plume from the ZNPP would most certainly affect the Russian forces in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts and possibly in Crimea and would likely impact the Russian forces to a greater degree than the Ukrainian forces given the usual direction of the wind in the area. Russian forces could conduct a man-made “accident” that creates a smaller radiological radius immediately focused on preventing Ukrainian advances near the ZNPP itself. None of these options provide more military benefit for Russian forces than the likely consequences they would create.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

Poland wants to join NATO's nuclear sharing program in response to Russia's plans to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, newspaper Gazeta Wyborcza cited Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki saying on June 30.

⚡️Denmark to provide https://kyivindependent.com/denmark-to-provide-ukraine-with/ Ukraine with $190 million in military aid.The assistance package includes air defense missiles and funds for the purchase of artillery ammunition to support the Ukrainian liberation struggle," the ministry's press release said.

Ukraine wants to show results on the battlefield before the upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius, but every kilometer costs lives, Zelensky told Spanish public broadcaster RTVE on June 30.
Zelensky admitted that the advance has been slower than expected due to long-lasting torrential rains. For this reason, he has called on the allies to continue providing support so that Ukraine can achieve results. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-ukraine-wants-to-show-results-on-battlefield-before-nato-summit/

⚡️Zaluzhnyi: Counteroffensive underequipped https://kyivindependent.com/zaluzhnyi-counteroffensive-underequiped-but-advances-daily/ but advances daily.
Ukrainian forces are advancing "at least 500 meters" every day in the counteroffensive despite the lack of crucial hardware like F-16 fighter jets, the Ukrainian armed forces' commander-in-chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi said in an interview the Washington Post published on June 30.

The costly operation near Bakhmut is one of the three axes in Ukraine’s much-awaited counteroffensive that kicked off in June. Three weeks after its launch, Ukrainian defense officials say the reported progress is only a preparatory step for the main operation. https://kyivindependent.com/its-a-lottery-how-ukraines-assault-brigade-counterattacks-near-bakhmut/

Ukraine will strengthen the defensive lines on the country's northern borders amid reports of Wagner's redeployment to Belarus, said President Volodymyr Zelensky. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-says-ukraine-will-strengthen-its-northern-borders/

There are attempts in Kazakhstan's Kostanay Region to recruit locals to join Russian forces in the invasion of Ukraine, the regional prosecutor's office reported on June 30. The report referred specifically to advertisements on local social networks calling upon locals to join the Russian military. The prosecutor's office noted that fighting under foreign states is punishable by 10 years in prison. https://kyivindependent.com/kazakhstan-officials-citizens-being-recruited-to-fight-for-russia-in-ukraine/

Hundreds of potential international investors met with top Ukrainian and Western officials to discuss how to rebuild the country that’s been ravaged by Russia’s war. https://kyivindependent.com/a-year-into-invasion-west-struggles-to-seize-russian-assets-for-ukraine/

EU leaders are in favor of a plan to impose a windfall tax on profits generated by the frozen assets of the Russian Central Bank to aid Ukraine's reconstruction, Bloomberg reported on June 30. https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-eu-seeks/
It says windfall profits from frozen Russian assets could generate up to 3 billion euros ($3.3 billion) in cash and securities.

Wagner Group Founder Yevgeny Prigozhin has closed down his media holding, which includes the notorious "Internet Research Agency" troll factory, The Moscow Times reported on June 30. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-media-watchdog-blocks-sites-linked-to-prigozhin/

⚡️Zelensky: Ukrainian forces have killed 21,000 Wagner troops https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-8/

A member of Ukraine’s parliament was charged with fraud after promising a foreign citizen his assistance in avoiding extradition for $50,000, Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) reported on June 30. https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-ukrainian-lawmaker-received-50-000-from-foreigner-in-exchange-for-help-with-avoiding-extradition/

⚡️Russian strike on school in Donetsk Oblast kills 2, injures 6. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-strikes-at-school/

⚡️Two killed in shooting at Moldova's Chisinau Airport. https://kyivindependent.com/shooting-at-chisinau-airport-leaves-2-victims/

⚡️Zelensky signs https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-signs-law-on-higher-pay-for-military/law on additional pay for military.
The main stated goal of the document is to pay soldiers on average additional remuneration of Hr 30,000-100,000 ($810-$2,700) per month, depending on their position and situation.
The new law stipulates that military personnel have a right to 30 days off annually, as well as extra 10 days for family reasons for cadets. The annual leave for conscripts is increased from 10 days to 30, and a continuous leave for treatment can be no more than four months.

48 Ukrainian orphans from the city of Kherson were illegally taken last year by Ukrainian collaborators and a deputy of the Russian State Duma, an investigation by Ukrainian media outlet Hromadske revealed on June 30. https://kyivindependent.com/media-abducted-ukrainian-orphans-placed-with-russian-mps/

⚡️Poll: 95% of https://kyivindependent.com/poll-95-ukrainians-trust-military-80-trust-zelensky/ Ukrainians trust military, 89% want to join NATO.

Ragnar Gudmundsson
HIGHLIGHTS FOR JUL 1:
■ Relatively few combat engagements
■ Double-digit artillery, drone & special equipment losses
■ Oryx update: 42:16/
■ Cleanup by Poternet (still in testing mode)
■ Area gains in June: 280 km² (net gains 200 km²)

UNITED24 Telegram

The decision on transferring long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine has yet to be made, but the issue is being studied, said the Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman, General Mark Milley.

Prime Minister of Spain Pedro Sanchez arrived in Kyiv on his first day as chairman of the EU Council

The EU has extended economic sanctions against Russia for the war for half a year, — the correspondent of Radio Svoboda.

The Russian army keeps targeting and destroying Ukrainian hospitals, schools, and energy infrastructure. The damage to the Kakhovka Dam ruined by Moscow could cost at least $2 billion, while rebuilding the battered flagship Azovstal steel plant will run $3.5 billion. Thousands of facilities lay in ruins.

The American company Wasatch Group will help build 600 houses in Kyiv region for Ukrainians affected by the war, said President Zelenskyy after a meeting with the company's executive director, Dell Hansen.

Brazil refused to supply Ukraine with Guarani 6x6 armored personnel carriers in the version of armored medical vehicles.
Allies were to purchase this armored vehicle for the needs of Ukraine.

Exactly one year ago yesterday, on June 30, the Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated Zmiinyi Island from Russian invaders

Belarus has already built a field camp near Osypovychi, where the "Wagner" anti-aircraft missile system will likely be deployed
The new satellite images show that the construction of the field camp has been completed. In the photo, there are about 298 M-30 tents, which on average accommodate 30 people, so there are places for 8,940 people, it should be understood that not all tents are residential.

Moldovia: A Tajik man who fired at the Chisinau airport was an outlaw. He wanted to hide in Europe from a prison term he was sentenced to in his homeland.
Rustam Ashurov was a member of an organized crime group involved in kidnapping the first deputy chairman of the Orienbank Shukhrat Ismatulloev, which took place on June 23, 2023, in Dushanbe.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

CIA Director William Burns secretly visited Kyiv, and Ukraine shared with him its plans for liberating the territories, The Washington Post reports. The plans include regaining significant territory by the fall, moving artillery and missile systems to the border with Crimea, and moving further east - and then negotiating with Russia.
In an ideal scenario, the Defense Forces would gain leverage over Russia by taking Crimea, where the Russian Black Sea Fleet is based, "hostage." The Washington Post writes that the United States agrees that Ukraine should start negotiations from a strong position.

Since March 2022, Swiss factories have received 75 tons of gold from Russia for processing, taking advantage of the fact that it is imported through London and does not violate sanctions - a joint investigation by the Swiss publications SRF and Die Wochenzeitung [gold buys a lot of neutrality in this 'Christian' country]

Two "Putin", the difference is 10 hours, one in Moscow and the other in Dagestan

I'm always interested in twitter activity which always aligns with russian problems

Currently loads of cut and paste jobs on how residents love their new apartments. --Built on the bodies of Ukrainians

Something brewing for Mariupol

Wagner Group Founder Yevgeny Prigozhin has closed down his media holding, which includes the notorious "Internet Research Agency" troll factory, The Moscow Times reported on June 30.^kyivindependent.com/russian-media-watchdog-blocks-sites-linked-to-prigozhin/^

Oh dear, hope their employees got redundancy. Maybe not.