Ukraine Invasion: Part 42

[MagicFox]

Setting this up early given the speed of current events

**

1. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

1. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

1. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

No.

I would be very careful what you wish for with Prigozhin. He's not the white knight people seem to think he is.

I would be very careful what you wish for with Prigozhin. He's not the white knight people seem to think he is.

Of course I don’t think he’s a “white knight”, or “wish for” anything of the sort. That’s why I qualified my use of the word “great” - it was tongue in cheek.

But given the convoluted events of the last few weeks, and the complexity of Lukashenko’s relationship with Putin, nothing would surprise me.

I've just heard Popov being interviewed on sky news. I wanted to ask if he was on glue, but I think it's fairly plain he missed the sane bus a long time ago.

Are they all this ridiculous in Moscow? I thought our politicians were deranged, but that is a special kind of crazy.

If you missed it, everything is fine and dandy in Russia and they don't attack civilians.

Fuckwit.

The thing is, if they start fighting amongst themselves - Putin, Lukashenko, Prigozhin etc - will they fight to the destruction of each other or will they pull back from that and return to fighting outside - Ukraine and the west and democracy etc? If we could trust that they would get consumed in their own internal fight that would be a very ugly thing but a good thing for Ukraine. But with men who have this level of aggression and paranoia there are no guarantees.

Whatever they do and wherever they direct their perverted energies it is dangerous and we watch them carefully. And respond carefully. All we have is our intelligence and restraint. Perhaps.

Personally I'd guess that the threat is not that they will reach Kyiv but that they will force Ukraine to split its forces guarding the boarder. But it's Wagner led by Prigozhin; they could get up to anything

Lukanhesko is not a popular man in his own country. Maybe he sees a ‘tamed’ Prigozhin/Wagner as useful in securing his position. But I can’t help feel it really isn’t good news for Ukraine in the way we initially hoped. What a useless, senseless war this is and I hope Putin and his cronies rot in hell.

Bloody savages

So Lukashenko now has Russian nukes and Russia's Wagner 'army' on Belarussian soil. This is not good at all.

No, but Lukashenko seems to be very invested in Belorus and not interested in empire building. Strangely enough he seems to be interested in stability, as long as he's in power.

Another excelelnt Chris_O thread. He never pretends to be all knowing but he is steady, researches his stuff and is always worth reading.

ChrisOwiki AT ChrisOwiki

1/ Russian sources reportedly say that Sergei Shoigu's plan to defang the Wagner Group failed because he didn't anticipate Yevgeny Prigozhin's personal popularity. Prigozhin had prior knowledge of the moves being made against him, leading to his strike against Rostov-on-Don.

2/ Shoigu is nonetheless said to be unsackable due to knowing too many secrets and having too extensive a network of loyalists to be easily uprooted. Meanwhile, Putin is said to have been in complete confusion and reportedly put the FSB in charge during the mutiny. ⬇️
3/ The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reports that a source has told it about what happened on the Russian government side immediately before Wagner's mutiny:

"The harbinger of a coup in Russia is always a strengthening of the protection of state institutions.
4/ "A few days before the escalation of the situation with the Wagner PMC, the FSO [Federal Protective Service] suddenly asked Rosgvardia [Russian National Guard] chief Zolotov for assistance from fighters of Dzerzhinsky division.
5/ "The Rosgvardians reinforced FSO patrols near the Kremlin, the White House [the Russian government's main office], the presidential administration and other government facilities in the capital.
6/ "On 27 June, the reinforcements were withdrawn as suddenly as they appeared and the main state institutions were guarded as normal.
7/ "In addition to the strengthening of the security of the buildings, operative groups of the Central Security Service and the Main Staff of the Ministry of Defence flew to the war zone in advance, supported personally by Defence Minister Shoigu and his high-ranking entourage.
8/ "A group of officers of the Main Personnel Directorate of the Defence Ministry also flew to Rostov. They all were told there that by 1 July, the Wagner PMC shall be disbanded and cease to exist.
9/ "Newly arrived task force units and operational staff on the ground were ordered to make this transition without any excesses.

Thus, with Moscow's approval, the operation to disband Prigozhin's army was to take place.
10/ "The protracted conflict between the defence minister and the head of the PMC was to have been ended. But things did not go according to plan.
11/ "According to the sources of VChK-OGPU, Shoigu was initially motivated by someone to take very drastic measures against several leaders of Wagner. Under any circumstances, Prigozhin and his associates, which included [Dmitry] Utkin, were to be interned.
12/ "But they did not take into account the popularity of the country's chief chef with front-line officers, soldiers and service operatives. All possible scenarios for the detention of Prigozhin and his men have been made available to the latter.
13/ "As the VChK-OGPU source believes, they did not envisage the main thing – the unwillingness [of the military] to take the side of the extremely unpopular Special Military Operation leaders, Shoigu and Gerasimov.
14/ "That is when a missile strike was launched against Wagner's positions. After the failed missile strike on Wagner's positions the action unfolded.

In a matter of hours the headquarters of the southern grouping and the city of Rostov-on-Don were taken.
15/ "The Defence Minister fled to Moscow.

Then within twenty-four hours the Wagnerites effectively approached the capital."
16/ As many commentators noted, Shoigu disappeared from view during the mutiny. According to VChK-OGPU, it was because he was effectively put into protective custody by the FSO while negotiations took place between the government and Prigozhin over his future.
17/ "Several VChK-OGPU sources confirmed information that after fleeing Rostov and the rapid advance of the Wagner PMC towards Moscow, Sergei Shoigu was effectively isolated by the FSO, he was not allowed anywhere under the pretext of personal security.
18/ "In reality, Shoigu was at this point the object of negotiations between Prigozhin and Lukashenko. It was because of Shoigu that Prigozhin initially broke off the negotiations (Putin refused to give up his defence minister).
19/ "However, the situation became more difficult by the hour, the convoy was rapidly approaching Moscow. As a result, Putin effectively met all Prigozhin's demands by pushing back on Shoigu.
20/ "But even then he was not taken out of the isolation, because FSB Deputy Director Korolev personally initiated an urgent revision of all materials regarding the Defense Ministry (the issue regarding Deputy Minister Tsalikov is still open, by the way)."
22/ "[Aleksey] Dyumin also persuaded Putin of the need to "remove" Shoigu. But Putin decided otherwise – to make Shoigu into an almost-hero who defeated Prigozhin.
23/ "The source believes that the point here is that Shoigu is extremely dangerous in the event of resignation because of his knowledge, the huge number of people loyal to him in senior positions and his leverage over processes in the Kremlin.
24/ "This is not the harmless [Dmitry] Medvedev or [Vladislav] Surkov, whose silence and inaction can be bought with money, this is more serious. Putin is not ready for such a conflict right now," reckons our interlocutor."
25/ The FSB is said to have played a central role in dealing with the mutiny. During Wagner's march on Moscow, VChK-OGPU published a cryptic account from a source: "In fact, the country is currently under the control of the FSB. Everywhere there's fear and confusion."
26/ The channel reports that another source in the Russian government "speaks of Putin's utter confusion [during the mutiny] - he was only seen this way in 2014, when a Malaysian civilian Boeing was shot down by mistake."
27/ Sources:
🔹

🔹 https://t.co/ckjyEwlbzp

🔹 https://t.co/ftOKvyxQfvt.me/vchkogpu/39338
t.me/vchkogpu/39624

I suspect this war is not directed any more, so much as Putin's got all 4 limbs on separate bucking broncos while his guts have diarrhea.

#Russian Interior Ministry General Alexander Travnikov was involved in a serious ATV accident. He is in a hospital in critical condition. (from Nexta, who is not always reliable)

However, there are rumours of purges beginning in the Russian Armed Forces. Surprise!

I hope the chaos continues, the chains of command break down and the whole damn regime implodes.

Well there’s an imagine 😂🤮

Grimly fascinating - thank you for all the updates and analyses.

On the question of money - the billions of $$ being funnelled from Russia into paying Wagner troops. Has Putin full stopped paying that now? I read that as well as pay, there has been a billion dollars to Prigozhin's catering company to feed the Wagner 'army'.

Who's paying the Prig piper now? The Wagner troops can't not be fed without consequences. The logistics of, 'here, have yourselves a disused army base that houses 8,000' are in reality hugely complex and expensive.

Delurking to thank all contributors to these fascinating and informative discussions. I have nothing to add but my appreciation of your work!

@SlightlyShostakovich ptig himself is immensely, billionaire level rich and can presumably cover any funding hitches. For the medium and long term there's the African income - all those gold mines etc, and he's said Wagner will concentrate on Africa now. It would be nice to see them bankrupt but it isn't something to reckon on.

Seconded.

waves at the lurkers with a smile and little blue and yellow flag

Does this, will this, all boil down to being a regional conflict about who controls the plundering of African natural resources? While other nations like the US and the UK try not to be drawn in while appalling things continue to happen in Ukraine, in Africa, in Syria?

And then, after the conflict, comes the carving up of territory.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

⚡️Stoltenberg will remain NATO Secretary General for another year, — Euractiv

China is not against Ukraine coming back to the border of 1991, — Al Jazeera with reference to China's ambassador to the EU, Fu Kong.
"No matter what. We respect the territorial integrity of all countries. But these are historical issues that should be discussed and resolved by Russia and Ukraine, and this is what we stand for," Fu Kong said. [Does this mark a change in stance in China? or is it more toffee-sweet, no-nutrition shake?]

US announces new military aid package for Ukraine worth up to $500 million, — Pentagon [see below]

🇳🇱🇺🇦 The Netherlands signed a contract for 111 million euros with the Belgian company FN Herstal for 7.62 mm FN MAG machine guns for the Ukrainian army. The Ministry of Defense of the Netherlands does not specify the exact number and delivery dates.

HENSOLDT will deliver 4 more TRML-4D radars of Diehl Defense to the Armed Forces. The radars are designed for Ukrainian IRIS-T SLM air defense systems.

British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace:
“During its summer campaign, Ukraine has already liberated approximately 300 km² of its territory. That's more than Russia captured in its entire winter campaign."

Lukashenko expects that the commanders from the "Wagner" PMC will share their experience and help the armed forces of Belarus to improve their skills

Putin just now: "From government budget, we fully funded ["Wagner" Private Military Company]. Only from May 2022-May 2023, the government paid them 86,262 billion roubles." This is almost $1 billion.

Russian military police detain Wagner PMC commanders in different parts of Syria
According to the Al-Hadath TV channel, we are talking about four detentions in Al-Suweida in southern Syria, as well as at the Khmeimim airbase.

⚡️Kramatorsk: the number of dead as a result of missile fire has increased to eight
"As of 7:00 a.m. on June 28, the bodies of 8 dead people (including three children, two born in 2008 and 2011) were unblocked from under the rubble of the destroyed cafe building, and 56 people were injured (including one child born in 2022). Three people were saved," the State Emergency Service reports.

⚡️President of Lithuania Nauseda arrived on an unannounced visit to Kyiv,

⚡️ Duda arrived with an unannounced visit to Kyiv, — Office of the President of Poland

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said that Russian President Vladimir Putin, in his opinion, is not a war criminal.
Ukraine, according to the head of the Hungarian government, "is no longer a sovereign state, the achievement of peace depends on the United States." He also said that "the EU has not succeeded in sanctions either to bring Russia to its knees or to achieve peace in Ukraine." [what a bloated toad he is]

The UN accused Ukraine of violating human rights
All because the security forces, as the organization claims, "arbitrarily deprived the freedom" of collaborators who cooperated with the Russians.
The UN believes that the arrests are illegal. [I'd ask 'could they possibly become less credible than they are' but there was a disturbing UN report that while Russians kill Ukrainian children - so do Ukrainians. I don't know what's behind that and I'm not willing to believe it without more info but it is not something to ignore]

Ukraine's Constitution turns 27 today. Written in 1996, it contains language that resonates today as never before. The words like the "right to life", "freedom of citizens", "honor" and "dignity", 'the land' have become vitally important for Ukrainians.

This photo shows two sisters who died as a result of the Russian missile attack on Kramatorsk

The French literary and artistic magazine Charlie Hebdo dedicated a new cover to the recent events in Russia.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said that Russian President Vladimir Putin, in his opinion, is not a war criminal.
Ukraine, according to the head of the Hungarian government, "is no longer a sovereign state, the achievement of peace depends on the United States." He also said that "the EU has not succeeded in sanctions either to bring Russia to its knees or to achieve peace in Ukraine." [what a bloated toad he is]

what an embarrassment

The UN accused Ukraine of violating human rights
All because the security forces, as the organization claims, "arbitrarily deprived the freedom" of collaborators who cooperated with the Russians.
The UN believes that the arrests are illegal.

This is also an embarrassment of an organisation

Twat.

I think we may be able to take from this that certain key players are preparing for the start of a settled negotiation to end the war. This kind of thing is often used to soften up the most stubborn side and bring the parties to the table.

This was not blurted out randomly without reason. This is an indication of something subtly shifting in my view.

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1674026317262536704 Surovkin and his deputy arrested

Lack of action against Prigo's mutiny?

Well I must say that, all the nuances aside, General Armageddon is certainly not one I'm sad is being removed from the game.